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We Can Still Crack the Top Ten


MacReady

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56 minutes ago, Leader said:

What am I reading wrong here?

Currently, we're picking 19th. The team picking 10th currently is the Chargers and Atlanta's picking 11th.

Look at their records, not their actual draft slots.  There are 4 AFC teams (Denver, Houston, Buffalo and Cincinnati) that are currently at 7-6, but picking before the Packers because the Packers are currently a playoff team.  A win by one of Atlanta, New Orleans, LA Rams, or Seattle combined with a Packers' loss (or tie) would knock the Packers out of a playoff spot.  IF we make the assumption that the Packers lose to the Buccaneers, they'd be 6-8 and the only teams that are currently 6-7 with a worse SOS is Atlanta (.416) and New Orleans (.425) which is worse than Green Bay (.471).  In theory, the Packers pick would jump from 19 to 13 if that scenario unfolded.

In theory, that Packer pick would go higher depending on the outcome of the games.  In a "best case" scenario, you'd have wins by NY Jets (over Miami), New Orleans (over NY Giants), Atlanta (over Carolina), Tennessee (over Houston), LA Rams (over Washington), Chicago (over Cleveland), and Seattle (over Philadelphia).  Assuming my math is correct and there are no other upsets, the draft order would be:

1.) Chicago (from Carolina)
2.) New England
3.) Arizona
4.) Washington
5.) LA Chargers (if Las Vegas wins) otherwise NY Giants
6.) Las Vegas (if Los Angeles wins) otherwise NY Giants
7.) Chicago**
8.) Green Bay**

Green Bay and Chicago are close enough in SoS that they could in theory flip depending on how the outcome of the games go.  It's more likely that Chicago has a slightly worse SoS than Green Bay.

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10 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Look at their records, not their actual draft slots.  There are 4 AFC teams (Denver, Houston, Buffalo and Cincinnati) that are currently at 7-6, but picking before the Packers because the Packers are currently a playoff team.  A win by one of Atlanta, New Orleans, LA Rams, or Seattle combined with a Packers' loss (or tie) would knock the Packers out of a playoff spot.  IF we make the assumption that the Packers lose to the Buccaneers, they'd be 6-8 and the only teams that are currently 6-7 with a worse SOS is Atlanta (.416) and New Orleans (.425) which is worse than Green Bay (.471).  In theory, the Packers pick would jump from 19 to 13 if that scenario unfolded.

In theory, that Packer pick would go higher depending on the outcome of the games.  In a "best case" scenario, you'd have wins by NY Jets (over Miami), New Orleans (over NY Giants), Atlanta (over Carolina), Tennessee (over Houston), LA Rams (over Washington), Chicago (over Cleveland), and Seattle (over Philadelphia).  Assuming my math is correct and there are no other upsets, the draft order would be:

1.) Chicago (from Carolina)
2.) New England
3.) Arizona
4.) Washington
5.) LA Chargers (if Las Vegas wins) otherwise NY Giants
6.) Las Vegas (if Los Angeles wins) otherwise NY Giants
7.) Chicago**
8.) Green Bay**

Green Bay and Chicago are close enough in SoS that they could in theory flip depending on how the outcome of the games go.  It's more likely that Chicago has a slightly worse SoS than Green Bay.

Damn. Good post. I can see you've given this far more consideration than I have.

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yeah, whether or not the Packers make the playoffs or not will come down to the last game, we know it, they will either **** the bed, or win and get in and **** the bed in round one....

 

Just enough to get our hopes up....

 

Edited by fattlipp
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Man there really isn't any benefit other than more trade down value to being at 11 vs 16. Alt and Fashanu will be gone, the top CBs are a horse a piece between Arnold, McKinstry and Wiggins, too early for Kinchens, DeJean, Fuaga, Latham at 11. Really the value there is if you want an EDGE or WR as you can probably get WR3 and EDGE2 there at 11, and not 16.

So not the end of the world to win 2 more based on our needs.

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