2023 Week 6 Bye Week Thread 3-2 Steelers

[DR43]

Here is my current mock:

Round 1: Kalen King Penn State CB

Round 2: JJ McCarthy Michigan QB

Round 3: Tommy Eichenberg Ohio State ILB

Round 4a: Zach Frazier West Virginia Center

Round 4b: Tyler Guyton Oklahoma OT

Round 6:  Damon Payne Jr. Alabama NT

Round 7: Sage Ryan LSU Safety

[Dcash4]

55 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Is this an average roster with average coaching

Average roster with average coaching. Personally, I think when you zoom out and look at the NFL talent as a whole the last few years it's hard to say we are considerably worse than others. There are very few loaded rosters across the league that are miles ahead of us. The NFL middle class is big, that's where we have been. QBs in general drive a lot of the talent conversation alone. 

This is the way that I look at Tomlin. At the beginning of each year, there are always a range of outcomes that your talent can get you to. Look at this year and you can probably come up with anywhere from 6 to 12 wins. While I can appreciate that Tomlin keeps us from ever seeing that 6-7 portion of that scale, but I think his choices (mostly his staff) keep us from the top end. It was the same on a slightly higher scale even when when had talent, so we still end up in the middle. Last year, we likely should have gone 11-6 or even 12-5. I think you can link 3 losses (Jets, Pats, Dolphins) on an awful OC and a terrible plan for QB preparation. This year we already had a loss where we were completely outgunned in the headset by a rookie HC and OC with a rookie QB. 

Those shortcomings now are keeping us from playoffs, but those shortcomings years ago kept us from things like home playoff games or bye weeks. What if we didn't tie the Lions in 2021? What if we won one more game and ended up the North Champs playing the Raiders instead of the 7th seed playing the Chiefs? So while I think Tomlin keeps the team together and keeps us from sinking, I also don't believe he is the rescue boat to get us out of the water. He requires a lot of help to get us to greatness. A lot of help we do not have at the moment. 

I would like us to get a much better plan for coordinators, have the new GM team keep stacking talent, and then go searching for that difference maker QB. If we stay status quo in 2 of those three things, I think we will be right where we are in the middle class regardless of talent. 

 

[warfelg]

An interesting thought with reviews that I would be interesting to know some breakdowns of success rates of challenges.  I feel like some of the easier to challenge plays (was/wasn’t TD, was/wasn’t TO, who recovered) has been taken away and left a lot of the most difficult to win challenges left of spot or catch.  I don’t have any data to support this opinion but that’s just the way it feels.

[warfelg]

1 hour ago, Dcash4 said:

Average roster with average coaching. Personally, I think when you zoom out and look at the NFL talent as a whole the last few years it's hard to say we are considerably worse than others. There are very few loaded rosters across the league that are miles ahead of us. The NFL middle class is big, that's where we have been. QBs in general drive a lot of the talent conversation alone. 

This is the way that I look at Tomlin. At the beginning of each year, there are always a range of outcomes that your talent can get you to. Look at this year and you can probably come up with anywhere from 6 to 12 wins. While I can appreciate that Tomlin keeps us from ever seeing that 6-7 portion of that scale, but I think his choices (mostly his staff) keep us from the top end. It was the same on a slightly higher scale even when when had talent, so we still end up in the middle. Last year, we likely should have gone 11-6 or even 12-5. I think you can link 3 losses (Jets, Pats, Dolphins) on an awful OC and a terrible plan for QB preparation. This year we already had a loss where we were completely outgunned in the headset by a rookie HC and OC with a rookie QB. 

Those shortcomings now are keeping us from playoffs, but those shortcomings years ago kept us from things like home playoff games or bye weeks. What if we didn't tie the Lions in 2021? What if we won one more game and ended up the North Champs playing the Raiders instead of the 7th seed playing the Chiefs? So while I think Tomlin keeps the team together and keeps us from sinking, I also don't believe he is the rescue boat to get us out of the water. He requires a lot of help to get us to greatness. A lot of help we do not have at the moment. 

I would like us to get a much better plan for coordinators, have the new GM team keep stacking talent, and then go searching for that difference maker QB. If we stay status quo in 2 of those three things, I think we will be right where we are in the middle class regardless of talent. 

 

This is all fair enough.  Like I’ve said, I have no issues with well reason.  

I think if you take that NFL talent and we’re average, I think it does matter what keeps you average.  I think the last 4-ish years it’s been the defense, which is hard to bust to that next level.  I mentioned before being in Philly near the end of Reids time, and I what really sunk him was average QB play, which I feel like everyone can agree is what we had since Ben’s elbow injury.

The mind baffling losses - happen.  Not excusing them.  I think in a way bad teams get more up to play us then others (also those three teams you mentioned, I think are a little better than given credit for) and that plays into it some.  But I also think they are teams talent wise close to where we are.  But you brought up those short comings are now keeping us from the playoffs - would you be ok with that shortcoming have us make the playoff then lose because we are an average talent team playing a highly talented team?  Or would the commentary be “another playoff loss” for Tomlin?  Because that’s a double standard to apply to him, and that’s what’s frustrating about the conversation to some degree. 

That bolded statement - um yes.  That’s what @43M and I have been asking for since Ben’s injury.  I think that’s why Tomlin isn’t the “rescue boat to get us out of the water coach.”  We drafted low, with too many misses, with out many later hits for far too long.  I want to see us have a couple of true blue chip prospects come under Tomlin then go get the QB, because I think it’s going to make a difference.

 

EDIT - I guess between what you surmised and what I added there, it’s why I’ve gotten frustrated with the “fire Tomlin” calls.  It’s been an average to slightly below average to average talent team for longer than I think most want to admit.  So to me, getting the team to be slightly above average (that’s what averaging 9.3-6.7 a year is), is actually pretty good coaching.  Yea Tomlin brings you that baffling loss a year, but he also has this team winning 2-3 games a year it should lose.  So that’s where I get frustrated with the “he keeps us average” comments.  How many times has this team been fully healthy, top 4 roster, and been “average”.

 

Double edit - But saying this is what makes my original post relevant - Fox sports calls him a top 3 and you think he’s average.  

Edited October 12, 2023 by warfelg

[Dcash4]

3 hours ago, warfelg said:

I think it does matter what keeps you average

If you want my honest opinion, what has kept us average in the last 2 years has been elite talent like TJ Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Cam Heyward. They elevate the team. There's no scheme centric stuff her keeping below average talent afloat. It's the talent doing the heavy lifting. 

3 hours ago, warfelg said:

But you brought up those short comings are now keeping us from the playoffs - would you be ok with that shortcoming have us make the playoff then lose because we are an average talent team playing a highly talented team?  Or would the commentary be “another playoff loss” for Tomlin?  Because that’s a double standard to apply to him, and that’s what’s frustrating about the conversation to some degree. 

There is nuance to this. If it's Kenny vs Mahomes/Allen in the playoffs...I will completely understand a loss. However, that means it's been 7 years since a playoff win and I am not interested in the city of champions being the city of well, we made it to the playoffs. Seven year drought means change. Significant change. Change I am not confident that Tomlin is willing to make. 

There is understanding that we don't have the QB or coordinator to make up for that. There is a fact that we simply haven't won in a long time. Provided Tomlins commits to changes that find answers to the problems (coordinators, coaches, analytics, QB) I am more than happy to have him back despite another year with a 1st round exit. 

However, if its Sullivan or Jim Cadwell/Jay Gruden...then I'm out on Tomlin and very, very open to a new CEO of the company. 

3 hours ago, warfelg said:

That bolded statement - um yes.  That’s what @43M and I have been asking for since Ben’s injury.

I should note that I probably didn't word the bold section well. When I mentioned those three things it seems that I want them to do the other two first THEN figure out QB. I want them to figure out QB ASAP. There is zero reason to wait. It's the biggest advantage in the sport having a franchise guy and it's incredibly hard to build a perfect team. Kenny has one more scholarship year where I am not forcing change. 2025 though is franchise QB time -- whether that's him or someone else. 

3 hours ago, warfelg said:

It’s been an average to slightly below average to average talent team for longer than I think most want to admit.  So to me, getting the team to be slightly above average (that’s what averaging 9.3-6.7 a year is), is actually pretty good coaching.

I just don't agree. We have had average talent and produced average results. Where we lose a game we shouldn't we pick up a game we shouldn't win. It all comes out in the wash. There is nothing tangible I hang on Tomlin for elevating Sundays other than his ability to not lose a locker room when the S hits the fan. 

We are the middle class of the NFL and our results have been the middle class of the NFL. 

3 hours ago, warfelg said:

How many times has this team been fully healthy, top 4 roster, and been “average”.

I am not sure I understand this...if we had a top 4 roster, why would we be average? I don't think anyone is making the argument that Tomlin makes us worse. 

3 hours ago, warfelg said:

Fox sports calls him a top 3 and you think he’s average.  

I've said it before, but I think Tomlins is very good at what he does. But there are multiple parts to coaching. Tomlin has the culture and players that love him. He doesn't have good coaches that can elevate the skills that he is lacking and he doesn't seem to buy into the need of it. That's the area I want to change. Tomlins culture and coaches that know what the hell they are doing is a dangerous combo. But we don't have that and he hasn't shown the ability or willingness to create it. 

[warfelg]

26 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

I am not sure I understand this...if we had a top 4 roster, why would we be average? I don't think anyone is making the argument that Tomlin makes us worse. 

4 hours ago, warfelg said:

I know I’m picking out a part but you comment a bunch about how many of my posts implies stuff - when I read a bunch of posts saying Tomlin held us back, that’s what it reads like. 
 

 

28 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

If you want my honest opinion, what has kept us average in the last 2 years has been elite talent like TJ Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Cam Heyward. They elevate the team. There's no scheme centric stuff her keeping below average talent afloat. It's the talent doing the heavy lifting. 

That’s the issue. What keeps us average is 2/3 positions that are “less” valuable. Watt, elite CB, elite QB is what you need to have to have an above average. 

[43M]

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

I know I’m picking out a part but you comment a bunch about how many of my posts implies stuff - when I read a bunch of posts saying Tomlin held us back, that’s what it reads like. 
 

 

That’s the issue. What keeps us average is 2/3 positions that are “less” valuable. Watt, elite CB, elite QB is what you need to have to have an above average. 

I disagree you need an elite CB.    It certainly helps, but isnt necessary.   

Dont necessarily need an elite QB either....but if you dont, you better be stacked (49ers).

[warfelg]

9 hours ago, 43M said:

I disagree you need an elite CB.    It certainly helps, but isnt necessary.   

Dont necessarily need an elite QB either....but if you dont, you better be stacked (49ers).

I can understand the CB thing but I'll agree to disagree because it has been done.  Maybe a better statement is you need a CB that can play at an elite level in the playoffs. But at the minimum you need an elite QB, good/elite LT, good/elite WR1, good/elite CB1, good/elite pass rusher.  You don't necessarily need an elite QB, but those cases are far and few between.  I made a comment about it will be interesting to see the Niners in another year when they'll have to bleed some talent to pay Purdy.

 

Effectively - I don't think our talent is in the right places to really be conductive to winning at a high level.  Much like the Killer B's era the talent is condensed, along with the cap, on one side of the ball.  It just doesn't allow for the talent to be balanced.  We finally invested in a LT and CB1 in some blue chippers that can become elite, and we did it without leaning in too heavy to one side or the other.  

Edited October 13, 2023 by warfelg

[jebrick]

Teams look at their own drafting more critically than others.  My bet is the Steelers are about average for the NFL on drafting.  Do I think they have wasted some picks?  Sure.  Tomlin has the team not accepting a loosing season but as the NFL is cyclical, is keeping the Steelers in middlin purgatory.  I would much rather build a great team and get a QB later.

[warfelg]

25 minutes ago, jebrick said:

Teams look at their own drafting more critically than others.  My bet is the Steelers are about average for the NFL on drafting.  Do I think they have wasted some picks?  Sure.  Tomlin has the team not accepting a loosing season but as the NFL is cyclical, is keeping the Steelers in middlin purgatory.  I would much rather build a great team and get a QB later.

All data points to us average at best. We have less outright bust but also have a low amount of production for the draft position

[Steeler Hitman]

On 10/12/2023 at 10:10 AM, AFF said:

I’ll take your bait because I’m stupid…

Naw. Far from it. You add insight and at times a difference of opinion. We need that collectively to get better.  Most people frown upon difference, but it is something that can be embraced in the right circumstances. I greatly respect your insight and opinion, even if or when I don't agree. Heck, we don't agree with a lot things the organization is doing!😳😁

Your constant need to defend Tomlin from any sort of criticism is mind boggling…the team has plateaued and there is valid flaws with Tomlin (I’ve stated them before numerous times, I’m not rehashing it).

I think many are disappointed, upset, fed up, and at different points of the spectrum with Coach T and the organization. We are a spoiled fan base and our expectation is Super Bowl Trophy and Ring or nothing.  That said, some are highly emotional and impatient, some are blindly loyal, and some are somewhere between and what I call realistic about being able to improve incrementally. 

Is he a bad HC?…no…but is he elite? IMO no.

I actually think that Coach T is elite.  Am I happy with what has happened13-14 years? No, but realistically, this is a coach who wins at a level that is on par with and above other SB winning HC and HOF coaches. Bill Cohwer and Chuck Noll were never called mediocre. Coach T has a record that is on par with John Madden. Madden didn't win a lot of big ones either because of a guy named Noll. Coach T hasn't won because of a QB named Brady and a HC named Bellicheck. Coach T will be like the ex that you will wonder why you never married when he's gone.  

Yes, for the record, I am tired of blowing kisses, cutsie phrases, etc. I want this team to win a dang SB. He could use some creative young blood in his stable.  Having had to deal with Ben, Bell, AB, Debo and others without publicly complaining or losing his cool. He is cool, classy, and yes competent. For the record, I wanted the team to hire Russ Grimm. They didn't and I have supported him and the team since his hire. 

Being afraid to make a change because you might go from average to bad is the biggest “living in your fears” Stance I could think of. 

I honestly don't think he is afraid of that or having a losing season. It won't tarnish his legacy. I think privately (because I don't think he would admit it in public) he wants to build a team and win his way. Why shouldn't and wouldn't he. Although players, coaches, and owners say that they don't listen to fans and media... They hear it.  He wants to win with "His team, not Coach Cowher's inherited team." 
 

I'm not the smartest poster on here by any means. However I've been on the “move on from Tomlin” train for a few years…it should say something that people who were more neutral or even more pro Tomlin have kind A changed their tune and raise valid concerns with him.

Me included in not just blindly following everything he says and the organization does. We are tired of 550-600level football. We have higher standards. After all, "The standard is the Standard!"

Im not trying to be a jerk but take a second to think about what I’m going to say…you’re so pro-Tomlin you refuse to see legitimate concerns with him and always pawn it off on other coaches/players etc etc etc.

I think that everyone sees things differently and because you take one side of an argument or another doesn't mean onne is completely correct and the other completely wrong. I have always tried to be objective and realistic. I ma not a Matt Canada fan, but I have been one of the first to point out our lack of OL push and play. Many fans say its all play calling and we need to play a different RB. Fix the OL and Matt Canada looks a little smarter.  Fix the OL and Najee looks more like Derrick Henry. Some will agree and some won't, but we are both correct. Matt Canada is not a great OC. His stats speak to that and our offensive production shows it. Conversly our OL is sub par and we were expecting what we got late in 2022 from the OL. Throw in no Dionte Johnson as a #1 and you have a bad OC, sub par OL, zero run game, a QB with happy feet and accuracy issues, and a sputtering offense.  Many think Canada is the root cause whichas the leader he is responsible. I think our OL getting their butts kicked is the root cause. Who's right and who's wrong? 

If I am a homer about something, I have no problem with saying that. We all have opinions on how things should go. Sometimes we are right and sometimes we are wrong. Many of us have scouted and pounded the table for players moves, etc.,  I have watched this football team religiously since I was a young by just learning football in 1970.  Many of us have seen the highs and lows. we have seen the good, bad, and outright ugly. We don't want wallow in mediocrity.  While having a 500-650 record is  great, we want titles (plural). We have seen the mistakes and heard the excuses. 

I shouldn’t have been able to correctly predict they were gonna lose to the Texans and then win a tough close game to the Ravens (Harbaugh is overrated too but that’s a separate topic).

Brother you don't have to be Nostradamus to predict that the Steelers are unpredictable. Harbaugh is actually my second favorite coach.  He too does some head scratching things as well. Smart guy, but sometimes too smart and (in my opinion) ego as well. But, I think this guy is an underrated coach and is a lot sharper than he's given credit. A lot of these other coaches are like shiny new cars. There luster will tarnish as well.

Again…I'm not trying to be a jerk but don’t respond to this (cause we’ve went back and forth on this before) and just think about I’ve stated.

Just some food for thought.

I love the forum for a difference of opinion. I don't think anyone here is trying to troll (be a jerk) and be different for the sake of being different without any substance. We have an informed group and this group is also passionate about their opinions. I agree with you, that we can listen to learn. I have learned a lot from you and many others on here from stats, facts, opinions and personal views. 

I don't get into rating "who the best is because is is subjective. "Objectively, How is Kyle Shanahan, Mike McDaniel , and others ahead of Belicheck? Count the rings up! 

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Steeler Hitman
Correct Type-os

[warfelg]

18 minutes ago, Steeler Hitman said:

I think many are disapointed, upset, fed up, and at different points of the spectrum with Coach T and the organization. We are a spoiled fan base and our expectation is Super Bowl Trophy and Ring or nothing.  That said, some are highly emotional and impatient, some are blindly loyal, and sme are somewhere between and what I call realistic about being able to improve incrmentally. 

Here here. The reason I adopted the Coach T avatar on here and other platforms was coming off the loss to the Manning lead Broncos. We were down (deep breath) Bell, Brown, Beachum, Pouncey, Suisham, and Williams. On top of that Ben, Miller, Shazier, Dupree, Harrison all popped up on the injury report. And people wanted Tomlin fired after that game. What cost us that game? No WR could make a play, and the run game spuddered down 2 linemen. My support of him was more in the “lack of context” vein than anything else. And as time I think the lack of context group has gotten louder and louder (and so has the delusional group - I argued with a guy during the preseason game who said this was a SB quality roster). 

[VigilantZombie]

31 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Here here. The reason I adopted the Coach T avatar on here and other platforms was coming off the loss to the Manning lead Broncos. We were down (deep breath) Bell, Brown, Beachum, Pouncey, Suisham, and Williams. On top of that Ben, Miller, Shazier, Dupree, Harrison all popped up on the injury report. And people wanted Tomlin fired after that game. What cost us that game? No WR could make a play, and the run game spuddered down 2 linemen. My support of him was more in the “lack of context” vein than anything else. And as time I think the lack of context group has gotten louder and louder (and so has the delusional group - I argued with a guy during the preseason game who said this was a SB quality roster). 

I definitely thought it was a playoff caliber roster, not expecting to go far but likely to win the division and get there. 

I expected an 11-13 win season.  I was way off. 

[Steeler Hitman]

2 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Here here. The reason I adopted the Coach T avatar on here and other platforms was coming off the loss to the Manning lead Broncos. We were down (deep breath) Bell, Brown, Beachum, Pouncey, Suisham, and Williams. On top of that Ben, Miller, Shazier, Dupree, Harrison all popped up on the injury report. And people wanted Tomlin fired after that game. What cost us that game? No WR could make a play, and the run game spuddered down 2 linemen. My support of him was more in the “lack of context” vein than anything else. And as time I think the lack of context group has gotten louder and louder (and so has the delusional group - I argued with a guy during the preseason game who said this was a SB quality roster). 

You like who you like. I don't think anyone has to justify their support of anyone. We are not the media. I am more upset with the BS that the media and "social media" try to pawn off as factual.

The fans are getting restless. We lost some valuable opportunities during those times with the Killer Bees.  They were just that at times. Unfortunately, we rarely got to play with all three fully healthy and with a full complement around them. They should have beaten Denver that year. However, I don't honestly believe they could have beaten Tom and New England in New England. 🤐🥶

This is a weird team. I would not be surprised if they are playing hot a la the Browns when they upset us and almost beat KC. No, it is not A SB caliber roster "on paper." The games aren't played on paper and the best team doesn't always win. I am a realist, but also an optimist. Anything is possible, but right neo our football team is not what you would call "good."   Several weeks from now, they may be looking like the team that played in the preseason or still stumbling around from week to week. Who knows with this group right now?  

[Steeler Hitman]

59 minutes ago, VigilantZombie said:

I definitely thought it was a playoff caliber roster, not expecting to go far but likely to win the division and get there. 

I expected an 11-13 win season.  I was way off. 

To piggyback on my previous quote, you may not be far off. These guys can lose games or they can go on a tear and beat some people. Right now it is hard to get a read on them. They should have beat the Texans on paper and they definitely should have lost to the Ravens. 🤪 They are quirky. I don't expect this offense to be anywhere near elite, but far better than they have been for a while. If the OL could muster some sort of dominant run blocking, I think the offense would open up tremendously. I love our Edge guys, but our CB's leave a lot to be desired. Our run defense has for the most part been poo poo. The Ravens look like they may run for 250 yards in the first quarter and then they settle down in the final three quarters and only give up 25 rushing yards in the second half. 

The Steelers have been consistently inconsistent.