Week 11 SNF GDT : MIN @DEN

[broncos67]

Another primetime game for the Broncos, this time back at home. 4-5 on the season after two massive wins against KC and Buffalo certainly has a lot of optimism flowing through Broncos Country. Vikings should be an interesting challenge. Josh Dobbs is a ton of fun and they've continued to win despite injuries to key players. Will be interesting to see if Jefferson comes back this week and what that does to their offense.

Minnesota can't really run the ball well outside of the QB position. Hockenson has been shredding teams so I expect him to continue to be a focal point. Our secondary is playing well but adding Jefferson to their offense should be interesting and I'm not sure we'll be able to adequately deal with it.

I expect Denver to come back to earth a bit in this game. I'd love to see us continue to roll, but wouldn't shock me if this game is a speed bump. 

MIN 23 DEN 20

[Broncofan]

Josh Dobbs is a great story, but he's got 3 major flaws from his ARI tape, and it's carried through to his MIN debut:

1.   He's actually not that accurate.   Part of it is because his footwork & mechanics are not consistent...at all.

2.   He's an absolute running threat, but he does bounce from the pocket before pressure is there. 

3.   He's very prone to making TO-worthy plays.    He was in the top 5 in his ARI days (and they have a decent OL).     Part of being a gunslinger.

Now, the 3 things he does really well:

1.  He's smart and makes better reads than most backup / journeyman QB's - part of that NASA aerospace engineer background.

2.  He's unbelievably elusive and a total threat as a runner.    He makes magic happen with his feet in the open field.

3.  He's not afraid to throw it downfield - so the entire playbook of routes is available to Kevin O'Connell.

 

So how our D fares against Dobbs is going to be telling.  Besides Justin Jefferson, he has 2 other main weapons and 1 complementary player in TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison (Chargers really screwed up by going Quentin Johnston over Addison & Brandon Flowers), and Brandon Powell (complementary guy).    Obv whether or not Jefferson plays is huge, but the pass game has a lot of weapons, even before Jefferson returns.   The run game is nonexistent (really) lol. 

As long as they're healthy, MIN has a top 5 OL in pass protection as well, it's a big reason why Josh Dobbs has been able to adjust so seamlessly.   Since they use a zone scheme, it's no surprise that Dalton Risner has started playing well again.    And their 2 T's (Darrisaw & O'Neill) are just anchors in pass pro.     And yeah, they have an absolutely ineffective run game, and I suspect Alexander Mattison is out.  So it's Ty Chandler & Myles Gaskin as their top 2 if Mattison can't clear protocol (and only 2 skill guys have cleared in <1 week all year).

 

The main reason why MIN has been able to continue winning after Kirk Cousins has left, though - the D is playing great.   They're a legit top 10 unit, Brian Flores has done incredible work (whether or not he's a good HC is debatable, but he's a top 5 DC hands-down).     Naked aggression with blitzes are his calling card, but he disguises coverage so well and sends blitzes from different areas and different times, it's absolutely stymied teams in their 5-game winning streak.   And their run D has really shored up.    They don't have a great pass rush with the front 4 except for Danielle Hunter, which is why Flores blitzes so much.   So that's an area that will be key with our pass pro issues (and Russ' limitations).

It's funny, because Kirk Cousins was playing at career-best levels both last year and this year (the SF MNF game was his crowning peak).   If he was healthy, MIN likely would have a real shot at taking on the NFC big boys.  Dobbs is a great story, and NFC is so thin at the top (SEA is the #6 seed, and very flawed, and MIN holds the #7 seed with no team within less than 1.5 games back).    But he's someone if you can limit his mobility and disguise coverages, he'll make TO-worthy plays.     We'll need this, because the MIN D is playing so well, and their OL pass protects so well. 

2 weeks ago when Kirk Cousins went down and JJ went on IR - it looked like MIN's season was done.   Turns out they were still resurgent.  Unlike our win streak, though, their basis for continuing is far more sustainable (great OL play, stout D, and a QB while flawed, can make magic happen with his feet and can throw it downfield), save for the total lack of run game (which matters, but IMO that's fixable long-term far more than our OL/QB issues and D still growing). 

As we saw last night, TO's can swing games to either side, and given Dobb's TO-worthy plays, it's definitely a winnable game.  But unless we get those TO's, I'd probably something like 24-17 MIN.   

 

PS - MIN's win streak started when Kirk Cousins started playing Creed before each game.   It's hard not to like Josh Dobbs when you see clips like this post-game this Sunday:

 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

 

 

 

Letting  Justin Jefferson rest on Week 10, his first week eligible off IR, the Vikes are going to be cagey on his status.   Obv it makes a huge difference.  If he plays, it would be a mild upset if PS2 wasn't assigned shadow coverage.   When he goes into the slot, that's a huge size gap between him and McMillan (love what he's shown but that's a bridge too far to expect him to succeed consistently).   Jordan Addison has played well as the main guy in his absence, but JJ is the best in the game right now (all due respect to Ja'Marr Chase &  Ceedee Lamb).  

Even if he's "just" a decoy, it changes our D a ton to have to account for Jefferson.   Addison vs. 2nd CB, Hock vs. safeties, becomes the obvious next matchups to watch.

Edited November 14, 2023 by Broncofan

[SteelKing728]

First off, congrats on 2 huge wins. Everyone wrote your team off a long time ago and you're still fighting. We are in ways kind of in the same boat. I'm guessing that's why this is still a primetime game lol

Anyways, Josh Dobbs has been very solid for us. He's in a position to succeed for maybe the first time of his career, and he's so far taken advantage of it. He's not Kirk Cousins good, but he doesn't have to be. Dobbs is masterful in his ability to create, and it has kept our offense alive. I'm hoping as he gels more with the team, he'll settle in the pocket, set his feet and improve on the accuracy.

Our run game is atrocious. Alexander Mattison has been terrible. He has no vision, burst or drive. Him being out could be a blessing in disguise. Ty Chandler looks at least average out there which is a major improvement for us. Still, I'm not expecting much from the run game, even though that's been a weakness for Denver This year.

The defense has been vastly improved, but can be beat. Experienced QBs can see where the holes are in the D after all the exotic blitzes and pick up big plays. Mahomes and Herbert rocked us with that. Russell Wilson isn't playing like he did in his prime, but he's no slouch.

Dalton Risner said coming to Minnesota was different, as he saw a culture build here. I'm not sure if that's a slight against the Broncos, but my guess is he's hungry to get back at his old team.

The game in Denver at night gives you guys an advantage. Minnesota is playing lights out, which gives us an advantage. Result: A one score game that will ultimately come down to the last play!

[MontanaBronco]

3 hours ago, SteelKing728 said:

First off, congrats on 2 huge wins. Everyone wrote your team off a long time ago and you're still fighting. We are in ways kind of in the same boat. I'm guessing that's why this is still a primetime game lol

Anyways, Josh Dobbs has been very solid for us. He's in a position to succeed for maybe the first time of his career, and he's so far taken advantage of it. He's not Kirk Cousins good, but he doesn't have to be. Dobbs is masterful in his ability to create, and it has kept our offense alive. I'm hoping as he gels more with the team, he'll settle in the pocket, set his feet and improve on the accuracy.

Our run game is atrocious. Alexander Mattison has been terrible. He has no vision, burst or drive. Him being out could be a blessing in disguise. Ty Chandler looks at least average out there which is a major improvement for us. Still, I'm not expecting much from the run game, even though that's been a weakness for Denver This year.

The defense has been vastly improved, but can be beat. Experienced QBs can see where the holes are in the D after all the exotic blitzes and pick up big plays. Mahomes and Herbert rocked us with that. Russell Wilson isn't playing like he did in his prime, but he's no slouch.

Dalton Risner said coming to Minnesota was different, as he saw a culture build here. I'm not sure if that's a slight against the Broncos, but my guess is he's hungry to get back at his old team.

The game in Denver at night gives you guys an advantage. Minnesota is playing lights out, which gives us an advantage. Result: A one score game that will ultimately come down to the last play!

If I had to guess Risner's comments were a bit of a slight, but can't say I blame the dude. Broncos were a **** show in more ways than I thought possible last year. 

Should be a fun game though. I havent watched many Vikings games for multiple years now, but the Broncos have really struggled against zone run schemes so I would imagine the Vikings will have some success on the ground. 

[AKRNA]

7 minutes ago, MontanaBronco said:

If I had to guess Risner's comments were a bit of a slight, but can't say I blame the dude. Broncos were a **** show in more ways than I thought possible last year. 

Should be a fun game though. I havent watched many Vikings games for multiple years now, but the Broncos have really struggled against zone run schemes so I would imagine the Vikings will have some success on the ground. 

He's also back with Kuper as his coach. My understanding is he's doing a great job with their OL. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

Even though we'll be at home, I'm less confident in this game than I was going into last night. Part of it is because Minnesota has been playing so well both defensively and with Dobbs, and therein lies the problem. Last night we knew we could run against Buffalo, that might not be the case the way the Vikings' defense has been playing. And Dobbs, being new the system, also makes them hard to game plan against as there just simply isn't enough tape to learn tendencies and identify strengths and weaknesses and scheme against him. Getting Jefferson back, if they do, will only enhance their big-play potential. 

For whatever reason, northern Colorado is laden with Midwestern transplants - my family, not me personally, but my family, included - and my local sports bar is basically an NFC North watch bar during the non-Broncos windows. As such, I've seen a lot of Vikings games this year. I was saying during their early season struggles that their fans shouldn't worry. Looks like I was right as they're coming in here red-hot. 

Last night we won the time of possession battle 37:21-22:39, but Buffalo still outgained us 369 yards to 300, and had only one fewer first down (19 to 18 in our favor). We still needed win the T/O battle +4 and get a lucky break on the final play to win with a walk-off FG. The win against the Chiefs showed similar numbers in us with a large TOP advantage but both teams with much closer yardage outputs and first downs while we won the T/O battle by a huge margin. 

This tells me two things - One, Sean knows our margin for error is very, very slim and as such he is doing everything he can to limit opposing possessions. Two, we've played two teams that might have been looking past us or not taking us as seriously as they should have. I don't think we catch the same break with Minnesota this week.

In their last two wins, Minnesota faced teams that were far more pass-happy than we will be; NO had 46 pass play calls to just 14 called runs, against Atlanta it was 39 passes to 25 called runs (Heinicke ran 3 times, I don't know if those were scrambles or designed QB runs) and that's with Arthur Smith calling plays. In our three game win streak, our run:pass ratio is 85:77 (Russ has run 18 times himself in the three games), indicating much more balance. Flores won't be able to get the effectiveness out of the blitz against us the way he has the last two unless Minnesota gets up big early and we have to pass, in which case we're screwed anyway as we're not a team that is equipped to play from behind. 

Right now I think we're in for a good game. I see the matchup favoring Minnesota; they are pound for pound a more talented team than us but so are KC and Buffalo. I think we will see as good of a homefield environment at Mile High as we've seen in years. I'll hold off on making a score prediction but I think it will be a close, one-score game. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

5 hours ago, SteelKing728 said:

Dalton Risner said coming to Minnesota was different, as he saw a culture build here. I'm not sure if that's a slight against the Broncos, but my guess is he's hungry to get back at his old team.

Dalton was really hurt that he wasn't resigned here. I don't blame him, he grew up here and playing for his favorite team was a dream of his. 

If he was making a slight, I don't blame him, not because of sour grapes but because he played under the likes of Vic Fangio and Nate Hackett and the entire organization has been listless since about 2017. Minnesota has been much more stable and KOC, by everything I've heard and read, is a real HC, something he hasn't had during this entire NFL career. 

[Broncofan]

6 hours ago, SteelKing728 said:

First off, congrats on 2 huge wins. Everyone wrote your team off a long time ago and you're still fighting. We are in ways kind of in the same boat. I'm guessing that's why this is still a primetime game lol

Anyways, Josh Dobbs has been very solid for us. He's in a position to succeed for maybe the first time of his career, and he's so far taken advantage of it. He's not Kirk Cousins good, but he doesn't have to be. Dobbs is masterful in his ability to create, and it has kept our offense alive. I'm hoping as he gels more with the team, he'll settle in the pocket, set his feet and improve on the accuracy.

Our run game is atrocious. Alexander Mattison has been terrible. He has no vision, burst or drive. Him being out could be a blessing in disguise. Ty Chandler looks at least average out there which is a major improvement for us. Still, I'm not expecting much from the run game, even though that's been a weakness for Denver This year.

The defense has been vastly improved, but can be beat. Experienced QBs can see where the holes are in the D after all the exotic blitzes and pick up big plays. Mahomes and Herbert rocked us with that. Russell Wilson isn't playing like he did in his prime, but he's no slouch.

Dalton Risner said coming to Minnesota was different, as he saw a culture build here. I'm not sure if that's a slight against the Broncos, but my guess is he's hungry to get back at his old team.

The game in Denver at night gives you guys an advantage. Minnesota is playing lights out, which gives us an advantage. Result: A one score game that will ultimately come down to the last play!

 

49 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Dalton was really hurt that he wasn't resigned here. I don't blame him, he grew up here and playing for his favorite team was a dream of his. 

If he was making a slight, I don't blame him, not because of sour grapes but because he played under the likes of Vic Fangio and Nate Hackett and the entire organization has been listless since about 2017. Minnesota has been much more stable and KOC, by everything I've heard and read, is a real HC, something he hasn't had during this entire NFL career. 

I mean ANYONE who played under Hackett as a HC should question the culture.   Let's also not forget that the OL coach Butch Barry would leave post-it notes instead of actually talking to players on the OL.   There's no way Risner shouldn't be criticizing what happened at the end of his time here.   Given we went to a heavier-gap scheme, it wasn't a fit, but he's a total natural for the zone scheme, so MIN was a match made in heaven.   Glad to see he's really found a resurgence to his career.   He should get paid this offseason (but would be wise to consider staying in MIN, he's a pure ZBS guy, sometimes you make more in the long run working in a place you know you'll succeed).

Back to the game - @SteelKing728 if you looked at the #'s, you'd think Wilson has found his game.  He hasn't.   He's the most limited version of himself you can imagine right now.    Unless you guys get no pressure, or blow coverage, your type of D is exactly the kind that gives Russell Wilson fits.     The key will be if you guys can keep us to 2nd/3rd and long....the run game has really come on for our OL, while pass pro in 3rd and long and finding chunk plays is a mega challenge for us. 

Edited November 14, 2023 by Broncofan

[vike daddy]

wow guys, really informative posts from you here in this thread, well done! you understand the current state of the Vikings well, but then we are changing every week too, so who knows what next weekend can bring?

one asset no one mentioned for us so far is the maturing and creative coaching of O'Connell, Flores, and their staffs. we are anything but a cookie cutter schemed team, instead one that adapts and plays to our players' respective strengths and our opponents' weaknesses. i mean, c'mon. we lost our #'s 1, 2, and 3 QB and the entire NFL's #1 WR and we've won five games in a row. that's right, fans think Josh Dobbs was our primary backup QB, but hardly, as our first three went down to injuries.

i doubt Jefferson will play against you, but he does travel with the team. Hockenson is the NFL's most productive TE right now, in several categories, and Addison is this little shifty sparkplug of a guy who always remains a threat to burn you deep. amazing hands, feet, and route running, especially for a rookie. KJ Osburn has been another reliable receiver, but picked up a concussion last week and his status as of yet is unknown. Brandon Powell has come on nicely as the next receiver up.

our running game so far has been miserable, that's certainly true, but with Mattison concussed now we've turned to Ty Chandler and he performed well. you'll see plenty of rushes from us, it's not something we'll abandon.

our defense is to be respected, yes, and comes up with surprise plays and stops that keeps our offense in games. Flores has been fantastic, turning our D from a bottom of the heap unit last year to something efficient and disciplined and multi-dimensional and opportunistic.

on special teams, we're just average, other than a top flight punter. in your thin air, he'll be getting that many more yards when he's asked to kick, which hopefully will be minimal, lol.

 

come on over to our forum any time you like this week, and chat up the Broncos. you guys look like a great bunch of intelligent, articulate fans.

 

oh, one more thing... all of us hate your coach. but your GM has Viking blood in him.

 

[Broncofan]

16 hours ago, vike daddy said:

wow guys, really informative posts from you here in this thread, well done! you understand the current state of the Vikings well, but then we are changing every week too, so who knows what next weekend can bring?

one asset no one mentioned for us so far is the maturing and creative coaching of O'Connell, Flores, and their staffs. we are anything but a cookie cutter schemed team, instead one that adapts and plays to our players' respective strengths and our opponents' weaknesses. i mean, c'mon. we lost our #'s 1, 2, and 3 QB and the entire NFL's #1 WR and we've won five games in a row. that's right, fans think Josh Dobbs was our primary backup QB, but hardly, as our first three went down to injuries.

i doubt Jefferson will play against you, but he does travel with the team. Hockenson is the NFL's most productive TE right now, in several categories, and Addison is this little shifty sparkplug of a guy who always remains a threat to burn you deep. amazing hands, feet, and route running, especially for a rookie. KJ Osburn has been another reliable receiver, but picked up a concussion last week and his status as of yet is unknown. Brandon Powell has come on nicely as the next receiver up.

our running game so far has been miserable, that's certainly true, but with Mattison concussed now we've turned to Ty Chandler and he performed well. you'll see plenty of rushes from us, it's not something we'll abandon.

our defense is to be respected, yes, and comes up with surprise plays and stops that keeps our offense in games. Flores has been fantastic, turning our D from a bottom of the heap unit last year to something efficient and disciplined and multi-dimensional and opportunistic.

on special teams, we're just average, other than a top flight punter. in your thin air, he'll be getting that many more yards when he's asked to kick, which hopefully will be minimal, lol.

 

come on over to our forum any time you like this week, and chat up the Broncos. you guys look like a great bunch of intelligent, articulate fans.

 

oh, one more thing... all of us hate your coach. but your GM has Viking blood in him.

 

I never wish injury on anyone, but IMO MIN is better off with more Powell and less KJ Osborn.   JJ / Addison / Powell fits the roles better IMO (obv Hock is the alpha TE).   

And yes, I think Chandler is a more effective runner than Mattison, Mattison probably more effective inside (but man, Mattison's complete lack of vision, it's hard to call him good at anything lol).     Chandler's a superior pass catcher IMO, so that helps them.

The DEN D is definitely over its MIA-WAS-CHI woes, basically since we literally upgraded 7 positions from those days (missing Baron Browning at EDGE and playing Frank Clark / Randy Gregory <who gave zero effort this year, why he's better in SF now>, both our ILB's & both our safeties were out, and replacing our CB2-3 with Moreau/McMillan).   We will likely be missing PJ Locke at safety (and already lost one of our most dynamic young players in Caden Sterns there), so that's an area I expect KOC will look to exploit.   

I've been very vocal in my doubts on Vance Joseph as DC, but I can't deny he's called a much better game vs. BUF (KC too, but it was easier because KC's weapons are fewer, and easier to account for).   MIN's variety of weapons, their excellent OL, and Dobb's elusiveness will provide a similar test that BUF did - except the QB isn't obviously as talented, but the OL is better and the supporting cast is just as diverse.   And yes, KOC is shining in his ability to adjust the O to Dobbs - what he did vs. ATL when Dobbs hadn't even taken a single practice snap (walking through each play and explaining it Dobbs with each play call, and still getting plays off before the play clock expired) was legendary (I had the MIN ML too, so I will always have a soft spot for KOC & Dobbs on that one lol).

Edited November 15, 2023 by Broncofan

[AnAngryAmerican]

I heard about this on The Fan during my drive in to work this morning. Courtland Sutton created and shared a "Russell Wilson Apology Form" and shot it out on social media. 

Off-putting or funny? 

https://twitter.com/jasrifootball/status/1724852234045841729?s=20

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by AnAngryAmerican

[Broncofan]

47 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I heard about this on The Fan during my drive in to work this morning. Courtland Sutton created and shared a "Russell Wilson Apology Form" and shot it out on social media. 

Off-putting or funny? 

https://x.com/jasrifootball/status/1724852234045841729?s=20

 

He's being a good teammate.   And IMO the casual public doesn't realize how much Payton's scheming is hiding his flaws.   But this reply says it best:

 

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Broncofan

[AnAngryAmerican]

I don't know why I can't get that tweet to imbed.

 

[Broncofan]

25 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I don't know why I can't get that tweet to imbed.

 

It's a PITA, but you need to do 3 steps if you're on a mobile (since your link started with x.com, it means you linked it from a mobile device - when it's a desktop, it uses twitter.com - F Elon, but whatever):

1.  Change the url from https://x.com to https://twitter.com (plus the other stuff)

2.  Copy the entire url

3.  Paste it, but make sure to choose plain text (instead of Rich text), and make sure it's "embedded" instead of choosing "display as a link"

 

Yes it's a PITA - FF knows about this, it's in the Feedback thread, until they figure out a solution, that's what you have to do ( @broncosfan_101 asked on this last GDT, you won't be the last either lol).

See new link with url changed as above now:

 

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Broncofan