2024 WR Talk

[BetterCallSaul]

3 hours ago, nagahide13 said:

I'm lower on Nabers than most seem to be. He doesn't seem to get much separation.

3 hours ago, nagahide13 said:

Really big on Keon Coleman.

[BetterCallSaul]

20 minutes ago, massraider said:

If he is a gadget guy, who needs manufactured touches, and cannot just play a classic WR spot, is that whoever drafts him might have a plan in place, but will that be true with the next OC or head coach? 

Corley is actually really good at making contested catches and is a very good deep route runner. He just struggles to break down and run intermediate routes, which he'll have to improve. I like Corley a lot and think that he's going to become a high end #2 at worst in the league. The Deebo Samuel comps are obviously a little rich, but he can ball. He's just not sudden.

[massraider]

1 minute ago, BetterCallSaul said:

Corley is actually really good at making contested catches and is a very good deep route runner. He just struggles to break down and run intermediate routes, which he'll have to improve. I like Corley a lot and think that he's going to become a high end #2 at worst in the league. The Deebo Samuel comps are obviously a little rich, but he can ball. He's just not sudden.

Yeah, I don't really have a clue if he can work down field a lot. I hope so, he's fun to watch.

[BetterCallSaul]

1 minute ago, massraider said:

Yeah, I don't really have a clue if he can work down field a lot. I hope so, he's fun to watch.

He's shown the ability to stack corners, even when they play off. I think he's just a very rigid route runner who struggles to move with any subtlety or suddenness at his route breaks. 

[goldfishwars]

14 minutes ago, nagahide13 said:

Nah, when I watch him I see him take advantage of a lotta soft zone and beating blown coverages over the top. 

And why do you think teams are playing soft zone against Nabers? 

[MikeT14]

13 minutes ago, BetterCallSaul said:

Corley is actually really good at making contested catches and is a very good deep route runner. He just struggles to break down and run intermediate routes, which he'll have to improve. I like Corley a lot and think that he's going to become a high end #2 at worst in the league. The Deebo Samuel comps are obviously a little rich, but he can ball. He's just not sudden.

It's why I love him for Washington. We have two guys already that can run good to solid intermediate routes. I think Corley is exactly the type of player we need to complement them. 

[DoleINGout]

48 minutes ago, nagahide13 said:

Nah, when I watch him I see him take advantage of a lotta soft zone and beating blown coverages over the top. I don't think that stuff is nearly as available at the next level. I don't think he's going to bust necessarily but I definitely don't see him as a top 5 pick like some project. I think he's probably going to be the 3rd or 4th best out of the class.

I do see Nabers the beneficiary of soft zone or playing off-ball but his size and speed/quickness are definitely legit in their own right. I think Nabers is a high ceiling guy and being a pretty mature 20 year old with that talent is enticing for a team picking top 10. It helps that LSU has a good track record for supplying the NFL with great WR talent. And lastly, it seems like it is commonplace now that teams prioritize scheme and off-ball looks to get their primary receivers open. More then ever before anyways, so I think if you’re concerns are rooted in how Nabers projects because of how he is featured then I would implore you to look at his role being the same in the NFL and still finding success.

I do have the same yellow flags for Nabers as you do, I see it too, but maybe not to quite the detriment as you.

[BetterCallSaul]

Nabers is lightning quick. He's going to uncover against NFL DB's with ease. Stud.

 

Keon Coleman, who I like, is always covered. He's a terrible seperator and doesn't have any route running nuance. I still really like him though, as he's a beast of a human being. That said, he's not in the same conversation as the top two. Not even in the same ballpark. Not in the same realm. I do think Coleman vs. Odunze is a legit debate, but Coleman is so much slower.

[Tugboat]

10 hours ago, nagahide13 said:

Nah, when I watch him I see him take advantage of a lotta soft zone and beating blown coverages over the top. I don't think that stuff is nearly as available at the next level. I don't think he's going to bust necessarily but I definitely don't see him as a top 5 pick like some project. I think he's probably going to be the 3rd or 4th best out of the class.

 

This part, i can definitely agree on as a concern with Nabers.  I certainly share those questions about him.  The plays he makes...he's usually wide open.  Whether schemed up, soft coverage, or just blowing right past inferior athlete future car salesman DBs and busted assignments.

But that's where i wouldn't necessarily agree at all with the idea that he "doesn't get separation".

I see him as a much more "feast or famine" type receiver in terms of projection to the next level.  He's going to have huge plays, and then he's going to have a whole lot of nothing plays where he just gets completely shut down.  He's either wide open with enormous separation...or he's bogged down and giving you basically nothing.  Especially as the caliber of talent ratchets up at the next level.

 

11 hours ago, DoleINGout said:

Brian Thomas Jr. might be the highest ceiling guy in the draft at WR but I sort of get the impression from him that he isn’t always focused in some way, shape or form. Not sure if it’s a lack of consistent effort, toughness, or maturity but it seems like there is something slightly lacking that prevents him from being elite. I hope for him that it isn’t a lack of awareness and that he plays it up to his advantage so that he evolves into a savvy all-around receiver.

 

The whole thing with Brian Thomas Jr. comes back to that offense at LSU.  It's a multi-faceted problem that makes everything a little bit murky.  With Thomas Jr., Nabers, and Jayden Daniels where it's potentially the most risky of all.  Plus all of the other talent.

In the same way Nabers ends up schemed into a lot of just "easy catches" with nobody around and deep shots of his own...Thomas Jr. is a big part of what makes that work on the other end of things.  His size + speed + extremely natural deep ball tracking make him a factor that has to be constantly accounted for in coverage.  He's a physical mismatch for all but a small handful of elite college DBs one-on-one...and the threat of leaving him without "help" in coverage is an instant big strike Touchdown.  That just lifts the lid off coverage and holds safeties hostage, to create those easy yards options underneath for Nabers a lot of the time.

 

But it definitely begs the question of what sort of receiver is Thomas Jr. and how versatile is he actually going to be?  He's got insane natural tools, and he seems to track the ball extremely well over his shoulder which is actually a pretty rare trait as well.  There are little teases that he's got more twitch and change of direction ability to be a lot more than that.  But there's not a huge amount of him showing he can do that stuff on tape.  So it's a bit of a mystery to me.

What seems clear though at least, is that he's got the HWS profile, ball tracking ability and hands, to be an absolute menace even at the NFL level.  Just making big "explosive play" catches downfield, down the sidelines, in the endzone, etc.  At worst, he looks like a big, fast, "shot play" monster.  It's just a real question how much more than that he can be.

 

10 hours ago, massraider said:

The hassle with a guy like Corley is:

If he is a gadget guy, who needs manufactured touches, and cannot just play a classic WR spot, is that whoever drafts him might have a plan in place, but will that be true with the next OC or head coach? 

 

Ehhh...that's a fair point, but i wouldn't be too worried about it.  Reality is...you have to draft for what you want to do.  Even NFL GMs usually only get a couple shots on things like Coach/QB.  You've gotta draft under the belief that what you're doing is going to work out.  Otherwise, you're really just drafting to set up "the next guy" better.

Plus, honestly...how many late Day2/Day3 type picks (as Corley likely is) even ever make it to a second contract with the team that drafted them anyway?  It's not a huge percentage i don't think.  If you think the guy can work in your system and you've got a plan in mind for him, just go for it.  If not, don't.

 

10 hours ago, BetterCallSaul said:

Corley is actually really good at making contested catches and is a very good deep route runner. He just struggles to break down and run intermediate routes, which he'll have to improve. I like Corley a lot and think that he's going to become a high end #2 at worst in the league. The Deebo Samuel comps are obviously a little rich, but he can ball. He's just not sudden.

 

This is where the combine is going to be so huge for Corley.  Unless he runs a lot faster than i'm expecting, he's going to be an awfully tough sell as any kind of deep threat in the NFL.  Or really, anything other than that gadget YAC screens and quick hitters and slants merchant type player.  He clearly doesn't have a huge catch radius, and again...unless he runs significantly faster than expected, i don't think he's got the long speed to win a lot of deep ball races vs NFL coverage.  He's also like you said, not very sudden in his route running, so he's not going to get open much that way.  It's just hard to see how he's going to make an impact at the NFL level outside of schemed up instant read touches.

Comparing him to Deebo is just completely out there.  Deebo is legit fast, he's extremely sudden, he just also happens to have that insane physicality with the ball in his hands as well.  That's the only thing Corley has remotely in common with Deebo.

 

If you're looking for a "poor man's Deebo" in this draft.  I still maintain it's Ainias Smith.  Though he's not built as heavy or as physical.  As long as the interviews check out (might be an issue), i'd have him well above Corley.  He's just a far more dynamic "ball in his hands" athlete to me.

 

10 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

And why do you think teams are playing soft zone against Nabers? 

 

Fair point.  But still doesn't really put to bed the question in talent jumping from NCAA to NFL level.  The NFL is the best DBs from the college ranks distilled down (though sometimes that's hard to believe).  Nabers sees so much soft zone because 1)He's clearly a superior athlete who will burn the average collegiate DB if they can't get in his face and disrupt him early and especially without help.  2)He's running wild in an offense that has another complete physical mismatch opposite him as i touched on above with Brian Thomas Jr. (and plenty of other top-end talent).  Hardly the first time LSU has had a situation like this...but it creates distortions that make projection more difficult.  The whole scheme just leverages it to an extreme though, in that there are only so many guys you can provide "help" against at once...while still providing "help" to get after the QB, who is also an athletic mismatch.

So it's a sign of respect for Naber's ability to blow the roof off of things.  But it's also a reflection of just how many problems the average defense was dealing with against LSU and trying to figure out what is the highest priority to stop.

 

9 hours ago, DoleINGout said:

I do see Nabers the beneficiary of soft zone or playing off-ball but his size and speed/quickness are definitely legit in their own right. I think Nabers is a high ceiling guy and being a pretty mature 20 year old with that talent is enticing for a team picking top 10. It helps that LSU has a good track record for supplying the NFL with great WR talent. And lastly, it seems like it is commonplace now that teams prioritize scheme and off-ball looks to get their primary receivers open. More then ever before anyways, so I think if you’re concerns are rooted in how Nabers projects because of how he is featured then I would implore you to look at his role being the same in the NFL and still finding success.

I do have the same yellow flags for Nabers as you do, I see it too, but maybe not to quite the detriment as you.

 

Yeah.  This is a fair evaluation.  And i do think that, assuming he lands in a decent situation, Nabers is going to pile up some pretty solid yardage and TD totals.  Because he absolutely does have those dynamic tools to be a homerun hitter.  Especially like you suggested, in an offense that can really focus on doing things to get him open in space, or behind the coverage like he often is in college.

But i do think that's a question that has to be asked in terms of his "upside" as a true #1 "All The Time" Target.  What he'll be able to do if he's a teams #1WR and it's a critical 3rd down and the defense decides to make his life absolutely miserable right off the line for example.

[DoleINGout]

30 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

What seems clear though at least, is that he's got the HWS profile, ball tracking ability and hands, to be an absolute menace even at the NFL level.  Just making big "explosive play" catches downfield, down the sidelines, in the endzone, etc.  At worst, he looks like a big, fast, "shot play" monster.  It's just a real question how much more than that he can be.

He’s got the Mike Evans profile but seems slightly less competitive in nature or sloppy running routes.

[DoleINGout]

I think the Keon Coleman separation is a bit overstated here from what I can tell. How his natural athleticism and quickness/YAC potential doesn’t pop off the charts to people is surprising. He has Keenan Allen option-route savant type of potential and zone eater/YAC ability. Add in the HWS profile, youth, personality, and you have yourself a top prospect.

[DoleINGout]

Keon Coleman timing, anticipation, hands, coordination, positioning, height advantage, agility, blocking, awareness, reliability are all top notch. Dude will probably surprise people at the combine/pro day numbers wise and end up the best receiver from the class with Nabers.

[DoleINGout]

Keon Coleman is a first round, elevated version of DK Metcalf.

[Scoundrel]

3 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

Keon Coleman is a first round, elevated version of DK Metcalf.

Who is your college team?

[DoleINGout]

Just now, Scoundrel said:

Who is your college team?

I don’t care for college football other than the NFL Draft and who is eligible each year. I come into the draft without bias or background for essentially everyone, every year.