Week 13 GDT : DEN @ HOU

[broncos67]

My miracle streak lives on! Hard to believe we're still plugging along like this, but no complaints here!

Houston is going to be an interesting challenge for this team. Yes, Stroud is a rookie, but obviously hasn't played like one and so far seems to have "it." Jacksonville managed to give Houston trouble yesterday and I think we'll be able to do some of the same. A big key is going to be how well we can defend the passing attack and get pressure on Stroud. Houston's Ol has done a pretty solid job defending him, and they have a nice set of receivers that can cause some big problems. I'd expect to see Surtain on Tank Dell, but we'll need eyes on Nico Collins and Schultz who can both really impact a game.

Offensively, we need more juice. I know we've been getting by, but this feels like a game Russ is gonna need to have to step up in and make some major plays. It's there for the taking. My biggest concern is that we have an early start on the road, and that's a spot we've been fairly terrible in over the years. Granted, travel isn't to the east coast so it's not as bad, but still worth noting. All of the games from here on out feel like playoff games - this is no different. We absolutely need this one if we're going to keep making a charge to the playoffs. I've been picking against us quite a bit during this streak. I think I'll step outside the box and acknowledge we might have something going for us.

Broncos in a close one.

DEN 24

HOU 21

[Broncofan]

Well, another week, another improbable win, so @broncos67 streak continues lol.

So, this is definitely a different game than what we've faced of late.  HOU's O is a juggernaut while the D is definitely more vulnerable (esp to the run but can be had in the pass game), but very opportunistic with Demeco Ryans as the helm.

HOU O vs. our D

-First and foremost, it's about CJ Stroud.   The guy is legit.  I know all the talk about OSU QB's - he's breaking the mold.   Now, he's not perfect, and he can be induced into mistakes, but he's as legit as they come.   The difference in the Bobby Slowik scheme - Stroud looks for intermediate-deep target first, then progresses to the short stuff.   So getting pressure on him is key.   Browning/Bonnito, bring your A game.

-HOU's OL looks middle of the pack in pass protection - but they were without 2-3 starters for about the first 4-5 games of the year.   They can still be beat, but they're a far better unit than the numbers indicate.   It's no coincidence Stroud's gameplay has gone from good to near-elite as the OL has gelled.   

-HOU's WR & TE corps is very deep.   It's not just Tank Dell & Nico Collins - Noah Brown is an excellent 3rd WR.   He has missed the last 2 weeks, but if he returns, that's a big problem, as our top 3 guys are all going to have to be on their A game to neutralize them.   As always, our TE & RB pass D is leaky, and with Dalton Schultz & Devin Singletary, both are more than capable enough to make D's pay. 

-The X factor is how effective the HOU game will be.   Their zone scheme has been up & down, but against our D, it would be surprising if they didn't commit to at least 15-20 runs.  How they fare there will really dictate how much the D can just focus on Stroud.   They are NOT a power scheme, though, so they aren't typically a team that can just lean on the run and protect leads, or take over if the pass game is struggling.   It was telling in the JAX game when they had 3rd and 4th an 1, they got cute with throws (more on that) - with a ZBS, they're not as confident of getting that critical last yard.  If it's up to the run game to win it for HOU, it's going to be fascinating given how much we struggle there (again, Kevin Stefanski deciding to throw on 1st and only run Isaiah Ford 4x in the 1H was nuts - I'd be shocked to see OC Bobby Slowik do the same).

 

Our O vs. HOU D

-Their run D has improved, and it's really effective in limiting chunk games, and has found success vs. power & zone schemes.    ATL, TEN & BAL all had varying degrees of success, but none of the blew the D out with the run game.   Still, our run game is on a roll, but it's safe to say how much success we have here will tilt the game.

-When we drop back to pass, the HOU pass rush has been much improved - and not just WIll Anderson (who looks like the real deal as a pass rusher).   DE Jonathan Greenard is another name to watch for.    Our OL has been a LOT better of late, and Bolles had a great game vs. Myles Garrett (who had a sling on post-game, but still, you gotta give credit where it's due).   Still, Russell's inability to feel pressure as well as in his younger days, and hanging on to the ball a hair too late, that is definitely an issue with the HOU pass rush.

-The HOU pass D is a lot better since Derek Stingley rejoined the secondary.   Before that, they were getting toasted routinely.   Calvin Ridley went nuts in the 2H, which shows the separators / quick twitch guys do really well.   This is a game we need Jerry Jeudy to succeed both in the short YAC game, but threaten them in the intermediate-middle area like RIdley did.   

-The coverage, much like our own, is def vulnerable to the TE & RB - I don't know that Trautman will take advantage (great TD catch notwithstanding, he just doesn't separate or make guys miss after the catch), but the RB's could def eat here in the pass game.   Something to look for.

 

INTANGIBLES

-OC Bobby Slowik cost the O vs. JAX with cute playcalling, and a ton of iffy penalties (weird as they were at home).    Obv TO's are a huge factor, but wasted drives are always a big X factor in close games.  Slowik's been really good as a rookie OC - how does he match up vs. Vance Joseph?   I have to say I still can't shake the notion our D is a mirage, esp against the run or more complete O's with multiple weapons - this is another really good test to see how we do.   

-Can we keep winning the TO game 2+ or better?  That literally gives us a 90+ percent win probability each time.  It's not sustainable...yet each week it keeps happening....lol.   It's a testament to Payton keeping the reins on Russell Wilson's limitations and flaws for sure.

-We're actually good on ST's - yay!   It's refreshing to see us being able to flip the field.   That needs to continue to win close games.

 

That's about all....I've been on the wrong side of the calls the last 3 weeks (BUF I'll never regret, and MIN/CLE, going +3 in the TO game will do that lol).    But in a TO-neutral game, those were all likely correct - so I'll stick with the TO-neutral game going to HOU 24-20.   Still, it's a meaningful game, and it should be one that's a great litmus test to see where our D is against a near-elite QB and diverse pass O, and our O's ability to throw against what's a pass funnel HOU D with a great DC (def making the talent play up past their paper level, young and only getting better too).

 

[1234567]

17 hours ago, Broncofan said:

So, this is definitely a different game than what we've faced of late.  HOU's O is a juggernaut

 

Yes and no. Houston’s offense is better than ours, to be certain. And they’ve def flashed a few times. But they’ve also been held to 21 points or less seven times this year, so their armor isn’t without its chinks. But the two things that concern me are:

1) They have the 5th fewest turnovers in the league (which we’ve been depending on to survive)

2) Dalton Schultz is gonna give us a problem in the middle/hook and curl zones. Jewell is slow, and Singleton has terrible coverage instincts. He’s gonna move a lot of chains for them on 3rd down if we don’t figure out a way to scheme around that. Hopefully they can get creative and keep him in Simmons’ sights. 

[Broncofan]

30 minutes ago, 1234567 said:

Yes and no. Houston’s offense is better than ours, to be certain. And they’ve def flashed a few times. But they’ve also been held to 21 points or less seven times this year, so their armor isn’t without its chinks. But the two things that concern me are:

1) They have the 5th fewest turnovers in the league (which we’ve been depending on to survive)

2) Dalton Schultz is gonna give us a problem in the middle/hook and curl zones. Jewell is slow, and Singleton has terrible coverage instincts. He’s gonna move a lot of chains for them on 3rd down if we don’t figure out a way to scheme around that. Hopefully they can get creative and keep him in Simmons’ sights. 

A big part of their lower point total is the deep to short approach that OC Slowik promotes and Stroud embraces creates more problems in the RZ.   Combined with Stroud learning to read D’s (harder in compressed RZ with narrower windows), HOU is 20th in the RZ.  
 

Having said that, they’ve been far better since they’ve put Devin Singletary as the lead RB - 2022 breakout rookie Dameon Pierce is just not a good fit in a ZBS.    They’re definitely more balanced now.    
 

Still, D’s can induce mistakes from Stroud.    It’s just you don’t see this level of performance this early except from elite ceiling talents.   Dude’s got the it factor.    NGL I’d almost kill to have that kind of QB on our team.    CAR’s mistake is HOU’s gain.   

[French Fan]

Our run defense being very vulnerable I wonder if Houston will not want to exploit this more and therefore change its gameplan. On the other hand, playing against nature would not be an advantage for them. CJ Stroud needs rhythm and he wouldn't have any. Houston's defense doesn't impress me that much and by using 2 TEs we could exploit the short routes and give depth to Jeudy and Sutton. We also saw in the last matches that using the WR slot was a great opportunity. But it is only used on 3rd down. Why don't we use it more often on the first attempt?

Edited November 29, 2023 by French Fan

[grizmo78]

Tank Dell is nursing a calf injury and didn’t practice today. Tytus Howard is out for the year. Seems like we’re lucking out a bit in facing the Texans when they’re struggling most with injuries. 

[jsthomp2007]

2 hours ago, grizmo78 said:

Tank Dell is nursing a calf injury and didn’t practice today. Tytus Howard is out for the year. Seems like we’re lucking out a bit in facing the Texans when they’re struggling most with injuries. 

The best ability is availability?? Does that work here???

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, grizmo78 said:

Tank Dell is nursing a calf injury and didn’t practice today. Tytus Howard is out for the year. Seems like we’re lucking out a bit in facing the Texans when they’re struggling most with injuries. 

Howard is huge.    Their OL has coped but he was great at G.   Ironically the Texans are deeper at T than G.    
 

Dell I’ll believe is at risk of the game if he doesn’t practice by Friday.    There are so many rest days given at this stage of the season it’s hard to get too worked up if there wasn’t an obvious injury seen in-game before.   
 

 

 

 

 

[lomaxgrUK]

On 11/29/2023 at 10:16 AM, French Fan said:

We also saw in the last matches that using the WR slot was a great opportunity. But it is only used on 3rd down. Why don't we use it more often on the first attempt?

I personally think a lot of this is to do with Russell's height. I too would like to see more easy throws to the slot on slants/curls/in-routes, but I just think Russell has to get so much depth to see over the meat of the OL (i.e the middle of the field), so he just isn't as comfortable with those throws.

[Broncofan]

Tank Dell will play.  Dalton Schultz won’t.  Noah Brown uncertain. 
 

All eyes go to Dell & Nico Collins but players to watch for include Brevin Jordan as the athletic TE2-now-starter, Devin Singletary vs. the LB’s in the pass game and Robert Woods / Xavier McKinney as the 3rd WR guys. 

 

 

 

[MontanaBronco]

Shultz being out is nice for us. 
 

Come out the gates aggressive. I love sutton but jeudy and him have a serious case of the drops 

[AKRNA]

Kinda dubious that in our 1st two possessions only 1 guy outside of Wilson has handled the ball. 2 sacks, two incompletions and a 7 yard scramble.

[AnAngryAmerican]

Losing PS2 would be devastating. 

[MontanaBronco]

What a trash call

[1234567]

What’s with the obnoxious circle graphics under the offensive players? I’m trying to watch a football game, not play a game of madden