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Week 13 GDT : DEN @ HOU


broncos67

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Like Griz said, Williams looked open for a walk in TD on that last 1st down. Then jeudy was wide open for about a 5 yd gain on the 2nd, Sutton about the same on the 3rd. A lot of just bad balls at the end by Russ and he knew it. Brutal end but love the fight from our guys

I'll also note it was a masterful final drive w clock manipulation by Sean. I think we got possession at the 7 minute mark or something and had a chance for a walkoff win 

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The loss sucks but it’s nice to see this team just feel alive again. They’ve built enough of a margin for error to be in the game to the last play on the road despite a flat start, turnovers and tons of coverage breakdowns. And they should have won. This would feel like more of a normal road loss to another competitive team if they don’t blow both September home games against bad teams. 

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We hung around and made a game of it which was nice. We were a miss from stroud at the end of first half and a defensive td getting called back away from getting buried though. 
 

More of the same struggles from the offense. Seemed to be more obvious misses from Russ today with wide open players not getting the ball/over or under throws. Only thing that makes me feel a little better about our offense is watching how bad some other teams in the league are looking. 

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I'm an old semi pro football player! I'm getting so sick of the soft plays, and even more sick that the officials are extending plays on stupid penalties. I'm sick that Kareem Jackson is now serving a second suspension for a flagrant hit, that this time wasn't even called on the field. I'm getting sick of offensive players dipping their heads at the point of impact in hopes that the refs will through a flag against the defense, so that the play will be extended. I watch football because I like the vicious hits, but I also like the comradery of teammates, and the competition, and the sounds. Look when CJ Stroud lowered his helmet and his Singleton in the helmet, and then started running his mouth, and drew a flash which then lead to a touchdown, I wanted to smack a ref. I don't know what CJ Stroud said, but Singleton got fouled for it, and Stroud was happy with himself. This game isn't what it's supposed to be, and is making me sick. It's soft, and we're teaching our young men to be soft. So disappointed! 

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In time, everything returns to the mean. This winning streak has been great, but at the end of the day we are still very much a team with several holes to fill. Our offense can't consistently sustain long drives, and relies heavily on the defense forcing 3-5 turnovers every game to stay competitive. That's just not sustainable. I love that we have a team that doesn't stop fighting and is extremely physical though. Considering our start to this game, to still be in a position to win it at the end is a good sign. Take away Singleton's dumb personal foul call on that 4th down, and a field goal would have won this.   

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As long as PS2 is OK, this was by far the best long-term result for the org.  Why?  Because all the illusions of what we are on O were pretty much laid bare for all to see.  We have the run game, we have 2 WR's who win in different ways, our IOL was terrific, our T's (who have been good of late) got a bit exposed in pass pro (but the HOU DE/EDGE's are legit good).    The thing is, Wilson can't get the ball to them as much as they both were open today.   The 3 TO's and the limitations of our pass game (and Russell's inability to feel pressure and get rid of the ball) were absolutely the reasons why we lost today.   Nothing else. 

On D, we did a pretty good job of stopping the run - but it was also made easier by HOU deciding to go with Dameon Pierce instead of Devin Singletary.    They posed almost no pass game or big run threat.   That made our job a lot easier.   Tank Dell leaving sure did as well - but man, you saw what a franchise-level QB can do to expose our weaknesses.   Nico Collins went nuts, and frankly, if he didn't drop a big slant, Brevin Jordan would have gone for 80-100 yards on us.   

We're definitely headed in the right direction, but our front 7, and our QB (along with TE), are major priorities in the offseason.   I think this game would be the nail in the coffin for Russell Wilson being seen as any kind of solution for us long-term - if he's our 2024 QB, it's literally because no one will take on his 2/54M salary (since 2025 37M salary guarantees, while his 2024 salary is a modest 17M <with a of dead money the new team doesn't take on).     And it really dents our playoff chances given how many teams are ahead of us, and how the tiebreakers work.   Again, IMO this is a good to great thing - because thinking this team as it's currently constructed, could go anywhere beyong WC round, is pretty much pure fantasy.   So better the bubble burst...but not so much that Russell Wilson isn't tradeable.

But as others mentioned - the real hopeful sign IMO is that we're playing hard, our kids are progressing, we have talent everywhere on O except QB & TE.  We definitely need front 7 D help too, though.   But, we're making progress.   Play hard, no one gets hurt (please PS2, be OK), but we lose and and a lot closer to bursting the illusion bubble that we should keep the status quo for 2024 - all good in my book.   This wasn't an org-statement game like KC, and in the long run, we're better realizing Russ isn't the answer...even for 2024.

Looking ahead, given it's the Chargers, Lions, Pats & Chargers again for the next 4 weeks, I suspect we'll split those 4 games, unless Herbert goes absolutely nuts.   But there's a reasonable chance Russell Wilson will look serviceable (the DET pass D & Chargers pass D are truly awful, while the Pats are almost at Hackett-level badness, we'll be rightfully favored by more than 3, maybe 4-5 pts minimum).     So in a perfect world, we go 1-3, but Russ looks OK.   Fingers crossed, our long-term journey to ridding ourselves of Wilson at QB and turning the page with a solid to good coaching staff, begins in earnest now.

Edited by Broncofan
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Disappointing loss for so many reasons. Truth be told, I thought we looked pretty ill-prepared throughout the entire game. We looked slower than Houston for nearly the entire first half. It felt like our guys were running through molasses or something. 

The offensive playcalling and Russ's execution of the offense left a lot to be desired, I thought. The OL in particular was a mess and simply could not figure out how to deal with Will Anderson or the Houston DL. Russ was running for his life often, sometimes warranted, sometimes not. Despite all that, we had the chance to win at the end, but the playcalling put us in an absolute hole. The first two downs were atrocious, Russ missed open guys, and I felt the scheming was subpar. We had guys on top of one another in the end zone on 1st down. No excuse not to use Sutton to his greatest strength this year. The long, drawn out playcalling seemed to be back this game and the offense unsurprisingly had one of their worst days recently as a result.

It's nice to have meaningful football in December though, I'll say that much. Luckily, I don't think our goose is cooked just yet. Colts winning was a bummer, but the other teams around us are a mess. Cleveland is going to struggle, Pittsburgh is going to struggle, it's unclear what the Bills will do coming out of their bye. If we can go 4-1 the rest of the way, I think we end up as the 7th seed. If we go 3-2, it's an extremely, extremely slim chance.

Without belaboring the point, however, I think it's extremely obvious that Russ really isn't that guy for us after this year. That doesn't mean he won't be here next year, but there's just a lot of limitations he has that are holding this offense back. He was absolutely locked in to his first read time and time again and missed a wide open Jerry Jeudy on more than one occasion. He missed a couple obvious dump offs to the RB including one late in the game that was almost certainly a TD or a good chunk of yardage. If we can get out from under that contract somehow, I think it's quite obvious we will. I assume we'll be heavily interested in that middle range of QBs like Bo Nix (I hope) or Penix. Anyone but McCarthy.

Anyway, it's been a fun 5-1 run on the GDT creation. Passing the torch to someone else now. Bring us home.

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Another game where Russel Wilson was the biggest reason we lost. I’m not even talking about the turnovers. I’m talking about the fact that unless he hits on a huge gain he can’t sustain drives.

every 3rd down that Russ was responsible for (not handoffs) on Sunday:

scramble-short of the 1st

sack

scramble-short of the 1st

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

sack

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete-PI on D

scramble-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

Interception 


That’s not winning football.

 

In case you think I’m cherry picking I went back to the Minnesota game which I thought was arguably his best game of the season:

 

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

pass-incomplete
pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

scramble-1st down

sack

pass-incomplete

pass-completed-1st down

 

over 2 games he’s 2/22 in converting 3rd down with 3 sacks an INT and no TDs.

I'm sure there’s some regression to the mean if I looked at the entire season but i think that’s probably pretty close to his mean

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1 minute ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

Another game where Russel Wilson was the biggest reason we lost. I’m not even talking about the turnovers. I’m talking about the fact that unless he hits on a huge gain he can’t sustain drives.

every 3rd down that Russ was responsible for (not handoffs) on Sunday:

scramble-short of the 1st

sack

scramble-short of the 1st

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

sack

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete-PI on D

scramble-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

Interception 


That’s not winning football.

 

In case you think I’m cherry picking I went back to the Minnesota game which I thought was arguably his best game of the season:

 

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

pass-incomplete
pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

scramble-1st down

sack

pass-incomplete

pass-completed-1st down

 

over 2 games he’s 2/22 in converting 3rd down with 3 sacks an INT and no TDs.

I'm sure there’s some regression to the mean if I looked at the entire season but i think that’s probably pretty close to his mean

I’ll go back and watch some more but Russ’s mindset on third down this week seemed to be lock on to sutton and if he doesn’t win I will find a way to get out of the pocket and try to scramble for it. 

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6 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

Another game where Russel Wilson was the biggest reason we lost. I’m not even talking about the turnovers. I’m talking about the fact that unless he hits on a huge gain he can’t sustain drives.

every 3rd down that Russ was responsible for (not handoffs) on Sunday:

scramble-short of the 1st

sack

scramble-short of the 1st

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

sack

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete-PI on D

scramble-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

Interception 


That’s not winning football.

 

In case you think I’m cherry picking I went back to the Minnesota game which I thought was arguably his best game of the season:

 

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

pass-incomplete
pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

scramble-1st down

sack

pass-incomplete

pass-completed-1st down

 

over 2 games he’s 2/22 in converting 3rd down with 3 sacks an INT and no TDs.

I'm sure there’s some regression to the mean if I looked at the entire season but i think that’s probably pretty close to his mean

How many players in the history of the league are more likely to score on a 3rd and Goal from the 10 than convert a 3rd and 3 at midfield? He’s a red zone magician who can’t move the ball to the red zone. Weird player at this stage. Being able to escape on any play feels like the lost skill that has really sunk his game, he was a pretty amazing player at his peak. 

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10 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

Another game where Russel Wilson was the biggest reason we lost. I’m not even talking about the turnovers. I’m talking about the fact that unless he hits on a huge gain he can’t sustain drives.

every 3rd down that Russ was responsible for (not handoffs) on Sunday:

scramble-short of the 1st

sack

scramble-short of the 1st

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

sack

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete-PI on D

scramble-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

Interception 


That’s not winning football.

 

In case you think I’m cherry picking I went back to the Minnesota game which I thought was arguably his best game of the season:

 

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

pass-incomplete
pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

pass-completed-short of the 1st

pass-incomplete

scramble-1st down

sack

pass-incomplete

pass-completed-1st down

 

over 2 games he’s 2/22 in converting 3rd down with 3 sacks an INT and no TDs.

I'm sure there’s some regression to the mean if I looked at the entire season but i think that’s probably pretty close to his mean

I'm really glad you keep pointing this out. From the posts I've read a lot more people are starting to notice. Good job!

I was a little worried at the beginning of the season that Sean might change the offense quite a bit to accommodate the player but that hasn't happened. Next year will start paying dividends as the players will be accustomed to it. A marriage of Vics defense with Gilmans offense sounds pretty appealing to me. Now we just need a few more players and a QB that can execute the system.

Oh, just for the hell of it I've been focusing on Jeudy lately. That kid gets as much or more separation off the break than any WR in the league. He gets a huge cushion in single coverage. He's open a lot. He should've been a 3rd down solution all year but Russ just can't see him. 

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6 hours ago, AKRNA said:

I'm really glad you keep pointing this out. From the posts I've read a lot more people are starting to notice. Good job!

I was a little worried at the beginning of the season that Sean might change the offense quite a bit to accommodate the player but that hasn't happened. Next year will start paying dividends as the players will be accustomed to it. A marriage of Vics defense with Gilmans offense sounds pretty appealing to me. Now we just need a few more players and a QB that can execute the system.

Oh, just for the hell of it I've been focusing on Jeudy lately. That kid gets as much or more separation off the break than any WR in the league. He gets a huge cushion in single coverage. He's open a lot. He should've been a 3rd down solution all year but Russ just can't see him. 

On the one hand I feel like a broken record, on the other hand Russ is the one who plays terrible football every week for me to comment on

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