Purplexing Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 hours ago, perrynoid said: Also gives your defenders a lot of rest; I am sure they enjoy watching the offense use several minutes of time moving methodically down the field. You are close to getting the most important point. See the 3rd sentence in gopherwrestlers first paragraph; i.e. the last seven words of that sentence is an important point. Deep passes might yield quick scores, but might yield incompletions that kill drives. Long passes take time to develop, increasing the chance of a sack, or a holding call on an OL. Think of 'The Story of The Hair and The Rabbit'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freakish Mind Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 hours ago, Dolmonite26 said: I mean its mostly been a successful formula, largely due personnel and scheme...I'm just bracing for impact, can't help it. Bracing for impact is the same is waiting for it to fail. Look at what this offense has done 8th in total offense 3rd in 3rd down conversions 5th in time of possession 6th in first downs per game 10th in total points per game All this, with a world class defense ready to take over when need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopherwrestler Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Freakish Mind said: Bracing for impact is the same is waiting for it to fail. Look at what this offense has done 8th in total offense 3rd in 3rd down conversions 5th in time of possession 6th in first downs per game 10th in total points per game All this, with a world class defense ready to take over when need be. If Case would hit all of the misses with precision and the receivers would catch every ball thrown to them we probably would be: 1st in total offense 1st in 3rd down conversions 10th in time of possession 1st in first downs per game 1st in total points per game All of that of that, with a world class defense and we would be undefeated, #1 in the NFC and probably never lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freakish Mind Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, gopherwrestler said: If Case would hit all of the misses with precision and the receivers would catch every ball thrown to them we probably would be: 1st in total offense 1st in 3rd down conversions 10th in time of possession 1st in first downs per game 1st in total points per game All of that of that, with a world class defense and we would be undefeated, #1 in the NFC and probably never lose. I'm glad my work doesn't have the same expectations out of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klomp Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 hours ago, gopherwrestler said: If Case would hit all of the misses with precision and the receivers would catch every ball thrown to them we probably would be: 1st in total offense 1st in 3rd down conversions 10th in time of possession 1st in first downs per game 1st in total points per game All of that of that, with a world class defense and we would be undefeated, #1 in the NFC and probably never lose. Yeah and we'd be like the handful of teams that easily end every season with a perfect record. Oh wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDBrocks Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 7 hours ago, Purplexing said: Completion pctg is correlated to 'missed opportunities'. It was YOUR project to discredit a QB, so you need to find 'definitive stats'. You failed thus far with 'air yards'. Try again, starting with completion pctg. Just no. Example 1A: 2016 Sam Bradford. Highest completion percentage ever, and full of missed opportunities. I wasn't trying to discredit anyone, so once again you've misconstrued a post post to fit whatever weird agenda you have to discredit posters, rather than engage in the actual conversation. You said the stats were readily available. Why is it so hard to just share what you apparently know? Is it fun for you to pretend like you know things that other people don't, running from thread to thread to remind everyone of your omnipotence? I'm not sure that you actually understand the discussion at hand. High completion percentage and even high YPA can stil mean that plays are left on the field, as is the case with Keenum, where last game nearly 80% of the yardage came as YAC. Air Yards and average depth of target point to a willingness to push the ball down the field. It's not perfect, but it does suggest that a QB is reading long first and taking the open plays when they are available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDBrocks Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 The mental leap it takes to get from "Keenum missed this throw, and it is an example of a theme that has been visible this season" to "These guys are saying that Keenum should hit every play and the Vikings should be undefeated" is incredible. I guess we should take turns praising how great everything is and not talk about plays from football games anymore. That sounds like fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopherwrestler Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, JDBrocks said: Just no. Example 1A: 2016 Sam Bradford. Highest completion percentage ever, and full of missed opportunities. I wasn't trying to discredit anyone, so once again you've misconstrued a post post to fit whatever weird agenda you have to discredit posters, rather than engage in the actual conversation. You said the stats were readily available. Why is it so hard to just share what you apparently know? Is it fun for you to pretend like you know things that other people don't, running from thread to thread to remind everyone of your omnipotence? I'm not sure that you actually understand the discussion at hand. High completion percentage and even high YPA can stil mean that plays are left on the field, as is the case with Keenum, where last game nearly 80% of the yardage came as YAC. Air Yards and average depth of target point to a willingness to push the ball down the field. It's not perfect, but it does suggest that a QB is reading long first and taking the open plays when they are available. You both are doing the same thing, trying to find stats that push you to your correct answer. Air Yards and AdOt both don't show much for scheme. Screens, amounts of short crossing plays, hitch routes, set screen outs, something that is VERY common in our offense. Plays designed to get these types of routes open. High numbers here can still prove you may be still willing to move the ball downfield, but not always making the correct decision with the ball, could also show you the scheme of the type of offense you are trying to run and the surrounding cast. You say "reading long first" but that is not how QB reads work. Example is to look at the AdOt with Gronk in the game for Brady vs. when Gronk is out. When Gronk is in, in the past 3 years, Brady has the highest AdOt. With Gronk out he is .2 yards greater than what Keenum is doing right now. Do you think he is just missing a ton of open plays, or does Gronk contribute to that? Every player in every game is missing these types of throws, maybe not to the point of what Carter was this past game, but how often do you end up with 2 players as open as they were on a single play? I do 100% agree with you. It is a theme that Keenum isn't always hitting the wide open man. I know Keenum really isn't that great of a QB. I just don't like using Air Yards, or aDot as factors of measuring that because of other factors that can not be accounted for. He is playing pretty dang good for expectations tho from my standpoint. He was even missing more of these in the past. Lets just face the facts, he is a half the field reading QB. Shurmur knows it, Zim knows it. That's why this offense right now is created to get the ball out of his hand fast and get it into the players that can make plays with the ball in hand. It's the reason why we aren't seeing as much from players like Treadwell and Floyd. Case is doing a good job for what he is, avoiding pressure and not turning the ball over. It's all they ask and trust out of him, but for the success the team is having with him in there, you just cant replace him with another QB on this roster right now that may be more capable. 54 minutes ago, JDBrocks said: The mental leap it takes to get from "Keenum missed this throw, and it is an example of a theme that has been visible this season" to "These guys are saying that Keenum should hit every play and the Vikings should be undefeated" is incredible. I guess we should take turns praising how great everything is and not talk about plays from football games anymore. That sounds like fun. Just here to be a smartass ever once an a while. I actually enjoy having conversations like this with guys with a clue like you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purplexing Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 44 minutes ago, JDBrocks said: Just no. Example 1A: 2016 Sam Bradford. Highest completion percentage ever, and full of missed opportunities. I wasn't trying to discredit anyone, so once again you've misconstrued a post post to fit whatever weird agenda you have to discredit posters, rather than engage in the actual conversation. You said the stats were readily available. Why is it so hard to just share what you apparently know? Is it fun for you to pretend like you know things that other people don't, running from thread to thread to remind everyone of your omnipotence? I'm not sure that you actually understand the discussion at hand. High completion percentage and even high YPA can stil mean that plays are left on the field, as is the case with Keenum, where last game nearly 80% of the yardage came as YAC. Air Yards and average depth of target point to a willingness to push the ball down the field. It's not perfect, but it does suggest that a QB is reading long first and taking the open plays when they are available. I didn't say the best stats were readily available. MANY stats to consider are readily available. OR, you could review plays, one by one, for all starting NFL QBs, to make YOUR point. I contend, as others do, that ALL QBs leave plays on the field. It's YOUR job to prove your contention that CK is significantly more inefficient relative to other QBs. To point to ONE game where YAC were so high indicates YOU don't believe that is an aberration. It's YOUR duty to explain how it is significant and a credible pattern by CK (rather than Shurmur). YAC doesn't explain it, as I stated. IMO, YAC isn't highly correlated to missed opportunities, but you are entitled to your opinion on that. I offered 'completion pct' as a quick answer to the question of stats better than YAC. Many incomplete passes due to poor judgement or poor throws, suggests, but does not conclusively prove, 'missed opportunities'. Pointing to SB's NFL record 71+% completion pct doesn't prove anything other than perhaps his accuracy, and a known-to-be-porous OL in 2016. High YAC may indicate an OCs' game plan to throw the ball short to elusive runners, rather than risk incomplete deep passes against quality FSs/ DBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDBrocks Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 No you said: 20 hours ago, Purplexing said: much more highly correlated stats are available Which stats? It's a simple question that you clearly already know the answer to. It's not my job to do anything. What a pompous statement. I'm have a conversation on a message board, not giving a dissertation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDBrocks Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, gopherwrestler said: Just here to be a smartass ever once an a while. I actually enjoy having conversations like this with guys with a clue like you! My comment wasn't really directed at you, as I think you bring good points to the table and aren't dismissive of opinions that you don't share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 10 hours ago, Purplexing said: I didn't bother to view this, whatever the purpose. One need not be the smartest person in the room to figure out what Zimmer has been doing all along. Average intelligence and an open mind will do it. It was only a video from Broadcast News, since VD's quote reminded me of it. I'm not really sure what the whole context of the argument is, since I'm not going to read pages and pages of bantering back and forth whether it's nitpicking of Keenum or how Zimmer is handling him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 10 hours ago, Purplexing said: I saw your comments on it in the past. Changing your story now? nope, you're wrong yet again. there has never been a Rule against commenting on posters, and i've never said there was. but these foolish discussions of yours don't need to take place, just PM the mod of your choice or the Webmaster for clarification, so you can stop derailing the thread and encouraging others to with your questions. i'm done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingsrule Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 10 hours ago, Purplexing said: You are close to getting the most important point. See the 3rd sentence in gopherwrestlers first paragraph; i.e. the last seven words of that sentence is an important point. Deep passes might yield quick scores, but might yield incompletions that kill drives. Long passes take time to develop, increasing the chance of a sack, or a holding call on an OL. Think of 'The Story of The Hair and The Rabbit'. Downside of long drives, rather than quick scores is missing out on TDs and settling for FGs. However, the Vikes are 10th in points scored and having longer drives that move the chains helps the defense and field position. If the offense is looking for an area to improve, one can certainly look at missed TDs as one area. Just makes it harder for any team if they are chasing 7 vs 3 against this defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopherwrestler Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, vikingsrule said: Downside of long drives, rather than quick scores is missing out on TDs and settling for FGs. However, the Vikes are 10th in points scored and having longer drives that move the chains helps the defense and field position. If the offense is looking for an area to improve, one can certainly look at missed TDs as one area. Just makes it harder for any team if they are chasing 7 vs 3 against this defense. I think you can compensate this tho. Even a lot of quick drives end in field goals Big play's 3 and outs down the field. Do agree tho 7 is much harder to chase with this defense, but also being a touch conservative approach has its benefit. Short passing, leading to less turnovers and just keeping the our defense off the field can all be huge. Need to find that balance. Right now we are doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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