Draft Discussion 2.0

[Kiwibrown]

38 minutes ago, NudeTayne said:

After McCourty's comments, I could see Hue playing him at that position next season. 

My spelling mistake does make a point

[TheeRealDeal]

Real quick simply RB research I did last night.

51 RBs selected in the 1st round in last 20 years and 50 RBs selected in the 2nd round last 20 years

1998
1-5. Curtis Enis
1-9. Fred Taylor
1-18. Robert Edwards
1-29. John Avery

2-37. Robert Holcolmb

1999
1-4. Edgerrin James
1-5. Ricky Williams

2-39. J.J. Johnson
2-43. Rob Konrad
2-46. Kevin Faulk
2-49. Joe Montgomery
2-54. Mike Cloud
2-60. Jermaine Fazande

2000
1-5. Jamal Lewis
1-7. Thomas Jones
1-11. Ron Dayne
1-19. Shaun Alexander
1-31. Trung Canidate

2001
1-5. LaDainian Tomlinson
1-23. Deuce McAllister
1-27. Michael Bennett

2-38. Anthony Thomas
2-49. LaMont Jordan
2-58. Travis Henry

2002
1-16. William Green
1-18. TJ Duckett

2-34. DeShaun Foster
2-51. Clinton Portis
2-54. Maurice Morris
2-56. Ladell Betts

2003
1-23. Willis McGahee
1-27. Larry Johnson

2004
1-24. Steven Jackson
1-26. Chris Perry
1-30. Kevin Jones

2-41. Tatum Bell
2-43. Julius Jones
2-55. Greg Jones

2005
1-2. Ronnie Brown
1-4. Cedric Benson
1-5. Cadillac Williams

2-44. J.J. Arrington
2-54. Eric Shelton

2006
1-2. Reggie Bush
1-21. Laurence Maroney
1-27. DeAngelo Williams
1-30. Joseph Addai

2-45. LenDale White
2-60. Maurice Jones-Drew

2007
1-7. Adrian Peterson
1-12. Marshawn Lynch

2-49. Kenny Irons
2-50. Chris Henry
2-52. Brian Leonard
2-63. Brandon Jackson

2008
1-4. Darren McFadden
1-13. Jonathan Stewart
1-22. Felix Jones
1-23. Rashard Mendenhall
1-24. Chris Johnson

2-44. Matt Forte
2-55. Ray Rice

2009
1-12. Knowshown Moreno
1-27. Donald Browns
1-31. Chris Wells

2-53. LeSean McCoy

2010
1-9. C.J. Spiller
1-12. Ryan Matthews
1-30. Jahvid Best

2-36. Dexter McCluster
2-51. Toby Gerhart
2-58. Ben Tate
2-59. Montario Hardesty

2011
1-28. Mark Ingram

2-38. Ryan Williams
2-56. Shane Vereen
2-57. Mikel LeShoure
2-62. Daniel Thomas

2012
1-3. Trent Richardson
1-31. Doug Martin
1-32. David Wilson

2-50. Isaiah Pead
2-61. LaMichael James

2013
2-37. Giovani Bernard
2-48. Le'Veon Bell
2-58. Monte Ball
2-61. Eddie Lacy
2-62. Christine Michael

2014
2-54. Bishop Sankey
2-55. Jerermy Hill
2-57. Carlos Hyde

2015
1-10. Todd Gurley
1-15. Melvin Gordon

2-36. TJ Yeldon
2-54. Ameer Abdullah

2016
1-4. Ezekiel Elliott

2-45. Derrick Henry

2017
1-4. Leonard Fournette
1-8. Christian McCaffrey

2-41. Dalvin Cook
2-48. Joe Mixon

I then made a list of what I thought were the Top 20 of each the 1st and 2nd rounds.

50 First Rounders
1. Fred Taylor
*2. Edgerrin James
*3. Ricky Williams
*4. Jamal Lewis
5. (Thomas Jones)
*6. Shaun Alexander
*7. LaDainian Tomlinson
8. Deuce McAllister
9. Willis McGahee
10. Larry Johnson
11. Stephen Jackson
12. Reggie Bush
13. DeAngelo Williams
*14. Adrian Peterson
*15. Marshawn Lynch
16. Chris Johnson
17. Mark Ingram
*18. Todd Gurley
*19. Ezekiel Elliott
*20. Leonard Fournette

51 Second Rounders
1. Kevin Faulk
2. Anthony Thomas
3. LaMont Jordon
4. Travis Henry
*5. Clinton Portis
6. DaShaun Foster
7. Julius Jones
8. LenDale White
*9. Maurice Jones-Drew
*10. Matt Forte
*11. Ray Rice
*12. LeSean McCoy
13. Ben Tate
*14. Le'Veon Bell
15. Giovoni Bernard
16. Jeremy Hill
17. Carlos Hyde
18. Derrick Henry
19. Dalvin Cook
*20. Joe Mixon

In my opinion there are 10 RBs I would say are good enough to build a team around that would be good enough to make a championship run of the 1st round variety and 7 RBs good enough to build a championship team around in the 2nd round. It is also my opinion that it does not show a big enough gap for me to believe a RB like Barkley is worth a Top 5 pick based on the value.

[CBrownsman]

6 minutes ago, TheeRealDeal said:

Real quick simply RB research I did last night.

51 RBs selected in the 1st round in last 20 years and 50 RBs selected in the 2nd round last 20 years

In my opinion there are 10 RBs I would say are good enough to build a team around that would be good enough to make a championship run of the 1st round variety and 7 RBs good enough to build a championship team around in the 2nd round. It is also my opinion that it does not show a big enough gap for me to believe a RB like Barkley is worth a Top 5 pick based on the value.

Someone like Barkley, who seems so much like a sure thing is hard to pass up.

If he is what they think he is, he makes your passing game better because he can block well for the QB.

He makes the passing game better because he can catch passes out of the backfield.

He makes the passing game better because he make the defense plan for him and often put a ton of guys in the box.

It takes more pressure off the QB because you have a better chance of getting yardage by just turning around and handing the ball off.

I just see the difference Zeke made for the cowboys and how much easier it makes it for Prescott to come into this league, and the difference Todd Gurley makes and how much easier it is for Jarad Goff with him in the game, and I want that to help Darnold succeed early.

 

[MSURacerDT55]

15 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Cleanup duty. And flashing and making splash plays. He gets bullied when he sticks his nose in traffic. 

Oh ok....

[bosko1616]

1 hour ago, TheeRealDeal said:

In my opinion there are 10 RBs I would say are good enough to build a team around that would be good enough to make a championship run of the 1st round variety and 7 RBs good enough to build a championship team around in the 2nd round. It is also my opinion that it does not show a big enough gap for me to believe a RB like Barkley is worth a Top 5 pick based on the value.

Lol the difference is 7 of the 10 RBs you listed in the first round are HOF RBs. With maybe 1 RB in the second round being Possibly HOF worthy. Just because you don’t want to take a RB in the first round doesn’t mean you have to skew value to justify your thinking. Just say I don’t want Barkley. 

[brownie man]

Thanks for posting that RB list, but

if you look at some of those top guys they were truly difference makers

Tomlinson Jamal Lewis Edge Zeke Gurley Shaun Alexander 

those guys added a lot of value to their teams and serious identity 

what better best friend to a young QB than a running game???

[Mind Character]

Random...

[FGK]

Alright, time for some of my favorite thing. Data. From Tom Carter on Twitter (a PFF guy).

Conclusions:

Darnold had a rough year accuracy-wise.
Allen was turrible, even in the area he's supposed to excel (deep balls).
Jackson's accuracy was meh, but looks a lot better than his raw cmpl% (was 2nd/3rd in every category and over Allen/Darnold in all of them).
Rosen is money in the 4th quarter and definitely the 2nd most accurate overall.
Mayfield is insane. Like, insane. If he's 6'2 he's the no question #1 pick even with the offense concerns. These numbers aren't looking at scheme, just how often you put the ball where your WR could get it. That's the most baseline I can think of for #s regarding accuracy.

So, big picture: I think Rosen and Mayfield are the most "ready". Darnold definitely has potential but needs refinement. Allen lagged waaaaay behind in accuracy #s. I'd rather include Jackson in a potential top 4 than Allen. 

[Aztec Hammer]

2 minutes ago, brownie man said:

Thanks for posting that RB list, but

if you look at some of those top guys they were truly difference makers

Tomlinson Jamal Lewis Edge Zeke Gurley Shaun Alexander 

those guys added a lot of value to their teams and serious identity 

what better best friend to a young QB than a running game???

Agree with that.

There's a lot to be said for just nailing a pick. Even if it maybe doesn't mesh with subjective ideas of positional value. Anyone can bust at any position but Saquon Barkley by any evaluation feels primed to be a top flight player.

I don't feel the same way with a lot of the other contenders. Though I admit I haven't seen much of some of them, like the DL or the CBs.

[brownie man]

1 minute ago, Aztec Hammer said:

Agree with that.

There's a lot to be said for just nailing a pick. Even if it maybe doesn't mesh with subjective ideas of positional value. Anyone can bust at any position but Saquon Barkley by any evaluation feels primed to be a top flight player.

I don't feel the same way with a lot of the other contenders. Though I admit I haven't seen much of some of them, like the DL or the CBs.

Only other players you’ve got to know at 4 are Minkah and Denzel Ward. 

I honestly don’t think Chubb is in the discussion Ogbah was doing great at well at Myles.

 

[FGK]

1 minute ago, brownie man said:

Only other players you’ve got to know at 4 are Minkah and Denzel Ward. 

I honestly don’t think Chubb is in the discussion Ogbah was doing great at well at Myles.

Yeah, I'd agree. Although I think someone could catapult themselves into the discussion (Ridley, Sutton, one of the OTs), I think Ward/Barkley/Fitzpatrick is by far the most likely batch of potential choices if we stay in the top 6-8 picks.

[MSURacerDT55]

10 minutes ago, brownie man said:

honestly don’t think Chubb is in the discussion Ogbah was doing great at well at Myles.

Ogbah started to show life, I thought the first half of the year, he played uninspired until late. I think we can stand to bring in a second wave type of guy to keep pressure on the first group guys imo. 

[brownie man]

10 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

Yeah, I'd agree. Although I think someone could catapult themselves into the discussion (Ridley, Sutton, one of the OTs), I think Ward/Barkley/Fitzpatrick is by far the most likely batch of potential choices if we stay in the top 6-8 picks.

Very true if JT retires I’d put Orlando Brown in there 

I love this second round of receivers so unless Sutton goes Julio Jones at the combine I’d only look at him after a trade down.  

[brownie man]

3 minutes ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

Ogbah started to show life, I thought the first half of the year, he played uninspired until late. I think we can stand to bring in a second wave type of guy to keep pressure on the first group guys imo. 

Yeah a third pass rusher to take over with Nassib on passing downs would be major. 

My guy for that would be Sam Hubbard in the second 

Dorance Armstrong from Kanas just declared as well as Josh Swear from FSU

the second and third rounds are gonna have some talented pass rushers for sure don’t have to get Chubb with a top 10 pick when we only need a 3rd rusher

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

47 minutes ago, Mind Character said:

There's actually someone else who's name can't be named who used to do studies and research on the old forum....

In particular I enjoyed their post/research on player success rates w/ a round by round breakdown.

@TheeRealDeal if you are said person...I've missed your posts.

If you're not said person but indeed someone new... Keep doing your thing...

I take away some different conclusions from that data but still good stuff

Random: I always enjoyed the work of CAM Newton

Hahaha I wondered how long it would take before someone called the new guy Kam.