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Is JJ McCarthy NFL-caliber?


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29 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

I think most would agree that Richardson has among the strongest arms in NFL history. I think we fundamentally see things differently, and I'll leave it at that.

Richardson is probably the single greatest athlete for an NFL QB prospect, so I get why teams would want to work with him.  Like if you can't make something work with that guy (barring injuries, off the field problems etc.) then you probably shouldn't coach quarterbacks.

There's a real question if you can actually make him work out before you get fired, sure, but if you can't get large, fast, agile, strong, guy with a big arm who works hard to play decent ball then that's on you.

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15 minutes ago, Scoundrel said:

What is the ton more? And do you think McCarthy has a robust frame?

In this context, it's about the entire way they're built, the mechanics of how they move, and it's all indexed in what i'm saying...against the way that they play, and how able they are to protect themselves.  Some guys like Richardson don't protect themselves at all, and are mechanically a bit of a yard sale...so the threshold for that frame just ratchets up accordingly.

 

Coming at it from a different direction for example...on paper...how different are Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in terms of "frame"?  6'4" 225 vs 6'5" 230.  You're splitting hairs right?  Now look at the two side by side and tell me that's still the case.  Couldn't be more different.  Doesn't really matter in this case as i'm contrasting two total "statues".  But does that help illustrate the point?

People get way too caught up in an inch here or 5lbs there...when it's the actual build and composition of that frame that usually matters more.

 

As for McCarthy...it's yet another unknown with him.  He's obviously not huge, but i don't think he's as small as his "listed" size puts him at either.  Combine will sort that out.  And again, he's young and that frame may even still be changing, functionally.  But more importantly, i think the threshold is a lot lower for what he likely needs to be "durable" at the NFL level.  Because as was discussed, i don't see McCarthy being a guy that is going to have success because he's ultra dynamic with his legs.  That's creeping into the conversation with some people, and i agree that his athletic talent in that regard is probably being exaggerated quite a bit by various analysts.  If someone is drafting him to run all around the yard and throw occasionally, i think that's probably a huge whiff.  He's a mystery box you draft to play from the pocket and designed roll-outs.  Probably best suited for something from that whole super extensive Mike Shanny Tree.

But nobody really knows.  Because he really didn't have to do much at Michigan.  So it's pure projection.

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56 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

I think most would agree that Richardson has among the strongest arms in NFL history. I think we fundamentally see things differently, and I'll leave it at that.

 

Yeah.  I think we probably actually crossed that bridge when we got to the whole, "the most physically talented QB prospect of all time" thing.  And following it up with "among the strongest arms in NFL history" just affirms it.  😆

I mean, did you really think that lowly of his processing ability, accuracy, attitude, off field character or something else?  The way you're describing him sounds to like it'd be pretty close to "The most talented QB prospect of all time", if you thought even somewhat highly of his actual football quarterbacking ability.  Certainly at least a "Generational QB Prospect".  lol.

 

But yeah, i think we just compartmentalize or break things down in a very different way.  Because i fundamentally never saw Richardson that way.  And it's all in the past anyway, so it's not like i'm going to change your mind on that.  That was your perception, mine was very different.

 

And at the end of the day...he's nothing like JJ McCarthy in pretty much any way as a prospect.

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34 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

Richardson is probably the single greatest athlete for an NFL QB prospect, so I get why teams would want to work with him.  Like if you can't make something work with that guy (barring injuries, off the field problems etc.) then you probably shouldn't coach quarterbacks.

There's a real question if you can actually make him work out before you get fired, sure, but if you can't get large, fast, agile, strong, guy with a big arm who works hard to play decent ball then that's on you.

 

As above, i don't think McCarthy is anything resembling the athletic talent that Richardson was coming out...but is the bolded not effectively the exact argument that seems to be propelling McCarthy up a lot of rankings and rumblings and "draft stock" tickers?

The idea that...JJ McCarthy is young, by all accounts squeaky clean super high character guy, with more than enough of every tool in the box.  You just don't really know how good he is at using them.  But if you apply that logic in the bolded...if you can't make JJ McCarthy into a quality starting NFL QB...is that on you?

 

I'm more inclined to believe there's an awful lot more than goes into it than that.  There's a big difference between workout warrior, gym shorts All Pro, combine superstar...and "Franchise Quarterback".  There's an old saying, "you can't fix stupid".  In a football context, you can scheme around it to minimize the liability.  But you can't really elevate it, if the football processing isn't there.

 

Which is why McCarthy is such an odd prospect.  Because there's really no way of knowing.  There's just not enough to go on, to possibly have a confident read on a lot of that stuff.  All you can really do is look at the "tools" and say..."welp...i guess that checks the boxes..."

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Richardson also had whole games where he performed wonderfully, by throwing the ball, and looked legit.

The game against Utah looks like a first overall pick type QB. McCarthy doesn’t have any games like that. And he doesn’t have the same athleticism.

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On 2/11/2024 at 10:19 AM, Rich7sena said:

I could see the fit with Payton because McCarthy's best and most confident throws are toward the middle of the field, a staple in Payton's offense. However, I believe he will explore (and overvalue) a veteran before taking a quarterback in the first round.

I think his physical tools are being overrated. People treat him like they treated Richardson last year, except there are at least two quarterbacks in this year's class who are more physically talented than McCarthy in Williams and Daniels (arguably Maye, Rattler, and Milton) and two that have shown to have better arm talent in Penix, Rattler, and Milton. And, I am not sure that McCarthy is more physically talented than Nix. Conversely, Richardson might have been the most physically talented QB prospect of all time. Lost in all this is Justin Fields, who I consider a better "deal" than drafting McCarthy anywhere in the first round (especially if a team is valuing "physical talent").

McCarthy's trump card is his age and the "what's behind door #9?" appeal. The latter is why I think his physical talent is being overrated. McCarthy's evaluation is based on assumptions and rumors more than his actual output. His "good" plays (e.g. roll outs to the right and throws to a tight window on the sideline) would be routine for almost any other prospect.

We see McCarthy's talent level differently.

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4 hours ago, Tugboat said:

 

As above, i don't think McCarthy is anything resembling the athletic talent that Richardson was coming out...but is the bolded not effectively the exact argument that seems to be propelling McCarthy up a lot of rankings and rumblings and "draft stock" tickers?

The idea that...JJ McCarthy is young, by all accounts squeaky clean super high character guy, with more than enough of every tool in the box.  You just don't really know how good he is at using them.  But if you apply that logic in the bolded...if you can't make JJ McCarthy into a quality starting NFL QB...is that on you?

 

I'm more inclined to believe there's an awful lot more than goes into it than that.  There's a big difference between workout warrior, gym shorts All Pro, combine superstar...and "Franchise Quarterback".  There's an old saying, "you can't fix stupid".  In a football context, you can scheme around it to minimize the liability.  But you can't really elevate it, if the football processing isn't there.

 

Which is why McCarthy is such an odd prospect.  Because there's really no way of knowing.  There's just not enough to go on, to possibly have a confident read on a lot of that stuff.  All you can really do is look at the "tools" and say..."welp...i guess that checks the boxes..."

Agreed

I also like the fact that he only lost one game as a starter.

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On 2/10/2024 at 10:05 AM, Rich7sena said:

Although I believe McCarthy is going in the 1st round, I do not think he's going top 15.

Brugler and Jeremiah both have him going early in their latest mocks.

After the Senior Bowl, Trevor Sikkema did a mock draft. JJ McCarthy went 44, I think. He did one yesterday, and had him going 10th.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-post-super-bowl-2024-nfl-mock-draft-five-quarterbacks-first-round

McCarthy inside the top 20 is the current smart money. 

 

That doesn't mean anything, obviously. They are only mocks. But that is the trend. He is flying up boards, at a time when the actual draft guys with inside info start getting their info. 

 

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3 minutes ago, massraider said:

Brugler and Jeremiah both have him going early in their latest mocks.

After the Senior Bowl, Trevor Sikkema did a mock draft. JJ McCarthy went 44, I think. He did one yesterday, and had him going 10th.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-post-super-bowl-2024-nfl-mock-draft-five-quarterbacks-first-round

McCarthy inside the top 20 is the current smart money. 

 

That doesn't mean anything, obviously. They are only mocks. But that is the trend. He is flying up boards, at a time when the actual draft guys with inside info start getting their info. 

 

Agreed that there is definitely real smoke there. However, we are still early in the process and its quite possible that the team(s) in on him now cool off when the discourse/media analysts come in. McCarthy's case for top 15 is much more based on intangibles/projections/narrative and those vary much more than tape/measurables/hard metrics.

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39 minutes ago, massraider said:

Brugler and Jeremiah both have him going early in their latest mocks.

After the Senior Bowl, Trevor Sikkema did a mock draft. JJ McCarthy went 44, I think. He did one yesterday, and had him going 10th.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-post-super-bowl-2024-nfl-mock-draft-five-quarterbacks-first-round

McCarthy inside the top 20 is the current smart money. 

 

That doesn't mean anything, obviously. They are only mocks. But that is the trend. He is flying up boards, at a time when the actual draft guys with inside info start getting their info. 

 

Will Levis was universally going in the first round last year. Daniel Jeremiah had him going 4th overall days before the draft.

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6 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

Will Levis was universally going in the first round last year. Daniel Jeremiah had him going 4th overall days before the draft.

Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder were firsts this time two years ago.

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34 minutes ago, Teen Girl Squad said:

Agreed that there is definitely real smoke there. However, we are still early in the process and its quite possible that the team(s) in on him now cool off when the discourse/media analysts come in.

I think this statement applies after the college season was over, and people had McCarthy in the 2nd round. I would have said exactly this a month ago. 

NOW, we have had Senior Bowl, and Super Bowl, and everyone had been talking to everyone for a few weeks. The Combine will be the next place where boards/mocks get adjusted.

The guys who matter, have moved McCarthy way up the last two weeks. And I expect the lesser draftniks who play follow the leader will all move him up their mocks the next few weeks. Which will be no coincidence.

 

 

 

 

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