Is JJ McCarthy NFL-caliber?

[Rich7sena]

7 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Teams put out information they want out there.  Both true and untrue.  If I had to guess, I’d imagine it’s a team in the NFC that likely already has their QB in place (think PHI, GB, SF, DAL, etc.).  Personally, I’m not that high on McCarthy, but I can certainly see why teams would value him highly.  There’s a LOT less projection about how he’s going to transition to a pro-style offense.

I am not disputing that teams don't view McCarthy highly. I expect him to go first round because he's the type of player and person that NFL teams like. I am just highly skeptical of an NFC decision-maker telling a Colts beat reporter that they sincerely have McCarthy at QB2. I'd also argue against there being less projection for McCarthy. If anything, there's more projection because of the offensive game flow and the lack of NFL throws. No NFL teams are running it more than they throw it.

[Dr LBC]

On 2/15/2024 at 6:25 AM, Rich7sena said:

In this case, they might as well lie.

Or, frankly, it may be a rep from any of several teams who use offensive systems that, beyond already having their QB1 spot filled, prioritize very specific traits in QB prospects and are willing to forgive certain shortcomings of McCarthy's because *on their team* he'd be a guy they feel they'd have more time to iron out said shortcomings.  Though typically, I'd agree, it's likely a half-truth scenario: You could have an exec that prioritizes the Parcells checklist of identifying a "franchise QB" - which largely rules out underclassmen - and is also going to be drafting from a later position with a priroritized need at a different premium position - and the more QB's that go early, the greater likelihood of players at other premium positions getting pushed down the board.

  

On 2/15/2024 at 5:51 AM, Rich7sena said:

It's important to note that beat reporters are the biggest marks in the history of marks. Also, based on him claiming this info is from a "direct source," is he saying that an NFC GM, or someone close to decisionmaking, told him that McCarthy is their QB 2? Why would a GM do that? (A GM would only do that to lie).

Also, the "biggest mark in the history of marks," is documented as being Matt Miller.

Edited February 16 by Dr LBC

[PossibleCabbage]

It does feel like the case for McCarthy can be understood by the fact that the three second tier QBs basically fall into classic archetypes.

- Safe, never going to be terrible, never going to be great.
- Good player, lots of real issues
- Raw, no obvious flaws, upside.

Teams are just going to be inclined to one of these three archetypes based on roster construction, offensive philosophy, etc.

[Danger]

Just remember, it only takes one team to like a player like McCarthy for him to be taken really early

[massraider]

According to PFF (comp% when scrambling):

Caleb 41.8%
Maye 36.8%
Daniels 46.7%
Nix 58.6%
Penix 23.3%
McCarthy 71.4%
 

https://x.com/LanceZierlein/status/1757800378807074992?s=20

Edited February 18 by massraider

[CWood21]

On 2/16/2024 at 11:41 AM, Rich7sena said:

I am not disputing that teams don't view McCarthy highly. I expect him to go first round because he's the type of player and person that NFL teams like. I am just highly skeptical of an NFC decision-maker telling a Colts beat reporter that they sincerely have McCarthy at QB2. I'd also argue against there being less projection for McCarthy. If anything, there's more projection because of the offensive game flow and the lack of NFL throws. No NFL teams are running it more than they throw it.

LIS, teams put out information all the time that they want to get out.  This smells like an NFC team that would like to see QBs go off the board often and early.  My guess is it's an NFC team that has their QB in place.  IF that NFC team was in the market for a QB AND they valued McCarthy highly, they probably don't want that out there.  We ASSUME that only the lies get out there, but there can be truths out there as well.

[massraider]

The only players whose 3rd year in college football even come CLOSE to McCarthy are Caleb and Maye. 

 

 

[jebrick]

3 hours ago, massraider said:

According to PFF (comp% when scrambling):

Caleb 41.8%
Maye 36.8%
Daniels 46.7%
Nix 58.6%
Penix 23.3%
McCarthy 71.4%
 

https://x.com/LanceZierlein/status/1757800378807074992?s=20

How many times did McCarthy scramble vs Caleb or Maye?  Nice to see raw data

[RedandPewterReturns]

Where I have a hard time saying no on McCarthy: He was asked to run Harbaughs offense. They were dominate in the ground game and why steer away from something that no one was stopping? 

In moments asked to make a play with his arm: you saw McCarthy do it. Make a big throw. Make a lethally accurate NFL level throw to Roman Wilson that not many college QB's were able to make on that game tying drive. Surely I can use that one example and folks say "well it was just that one throw" ...not necessarily. 

I'm not saying invest a top 3-5 overall pick on him. But I think he goes round 1. And Denver, Seattle or Pittsburgh might be that team that invests. 

[RedandPewterReturns]

Basically the argument for McCarthy is: He wasn't asked to carry the team with his arm...but showed it in moments needed. 

The sample size isn't big though. But are we willing to bet on that he can? His measurables and intangibles seem quite high. Great athlete as well. 

I feel like Seattle is the best fit for him. Stable of RB's. Pretty well built team with weapons on the outside and TE. 

[DigInBoys]

 

[Dr A W Niloc]

It's hard to look at J.J. and his numbers without wondering why he is quarterbacking in Michigan.  It's like watching a Maserati in a traffic jam. 

Among the top 16 graduating QBs he is second in completion percentage and 5th in Average Depth of Target.  By my favorite stat, "CompADoT", he is the #1 passer in the draft (but the sample size is worrying).  He doesn't have good yardage totals because it's Michigan.  Beyond Roman Wilson there's a dearth of healthy WR talent, especially in the areas of YAC and drops.  As I mentioned earlier, he had a soft schedule.  He has decent speed and average evasion skills.  Holding the ball too long is a serious concern, raising questions about his processing speed.

I predict he'll go in the second round as a luxury pick (i.e. a good team with few pressing needs looking for a long term prospect), with the next QB going more than a round later.

[DigInBoys]

 

[offbyone]

Why not Baltimore?  Team that runs the ball, doesn't expect to be a passing first offense and they need Jackson injury insurance.  Taking a qb at about #30 is a move they have made before.

[goldfishwars]

On 2/18/2024 at 6:16 PM, RedandPewterReturns said:

Basically the argument for McCarthy is: He wasn't asked to carry the team with his arm...but showed it in moments needed. 

The sample size isn't big though. But are we willing to bet on that he can? His measurables and intangibles seem quite high. Great athlete as well. 

I feel like Seattle is the best fit for him. Stable of RB's. Pretty well built team with weapons on the outside and TE. 

Yeah, his tape is weirdly impressive. He makes plays when he needs to, throws well over the middle of the field and can create out of structure (throw on the move etc). He's basically the inverse of Michael Penix in this draft, where you don't get anything from a creativity standpoint.