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Is JJ McCarthy NFL-caliber?


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17 hours ago, BetterCallSaul said:

I agree with you. It’s trendy to hate on him because he has some talent around him. The dude made some incredible throws during their run against stiff competition. It’s not like he has guys running wide open every game like Bama’s Mac Jones.

What specifically does he suck at that’s gonna prevent him from being successful is what I’d like to hear. He has a solid arm…probably a + arm. Great athlete. Great leader. Smart and decisive. Ascending trajectory. Solid size profile. Played in a pro style system.

To me, he looks like Brock Purdy with some accentuated features. Obviously Purdy continues to improve, which is why he is where he is right now. But with that being said, I struggle to see why McCarthy can’t be an NFL QB.

My guess is it’s because he didn’t have bulk stats or throw for 400 yards every week like some other college kids. He was a game manager for sure, but that’s exactly what he should have been for them. I don’t hold it against Michigan for playing smart football en route to an undefeated National Championship. Clearly that recipe worked. 

This is a fair assessment but I still hesitate to believe any situation where a college team purposely limits the snaps of a legit NFL starter talent. A great QB is the biggest advantage a team can have in winning and Michigan was in too many nail biters for me to be that comfortable in handwaiving the lack of attempts as a nothingburger. I haven't scouted him enough to weigh in yet but I'd be lying if I wasn't apprehensive going in (at least as a day 1 non-developmental prospect).

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On 1/29/2024 at 2:35 AM, BetterCallSaul said:

I agree with you. It’s trendy to hate on him because he has some talent around him. The dude made some incredible throws during their run against stiff competition. It’s not like he has guys running wide open every game like Bama’s Mac Jones.

What specifically does he suck at that’s gonna prevent him from being successful is what I’d like to hear. He has a solid arm…probably a + arm. Great athlete. Great leader. Smart and decisive. Ascending trajectory. Solid size profile. Played in a pro style system.

To me, he looks like Brock Purdy with some accentuated features. Obviously Purdy continues to improve, which is why he is where he is right now. But with that being said, I struggle to see why McCarthy can’t be an NFL QB.

My guess is it’s because he didn’t have bulk stats or throw for 400 yards every week like some other college kids. He was a game manager for sure, but that’s exactly what he should have been for them. I don’t hold it against Michigan for playing smart football en route to an undefeated National Championship. Clearly that recipe worked. 

 

This is pretty much the crux of it.

McCarthy is just a weird evaluation because the case largely rests on the absence of counter-evidence.  It's a case of, "well why can't he be a starting NFL QB?"  And, "what doesn't  he have?"  Rather than actually having enough to go on to point at and say, "THAT is why he's going to be an NFL starting quarterback".

You don't typically get guys like that being considered as high in the draft as McCarthy ostensibly is.  But when he's done it on the biggest stage at a prominent championship program...and still has youth on his side...someone's going to go out on a limb and try it.  I wouldn't want it to be me.  But if you're desperate...

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It's a calculated risk, right? I think we are starting to see bang on takes on what JJ is as a prospect. He's entirely tools and traits; I think he ticks just about every single box, if you look at it that way. Do you have confidence that that is enough and your team can get the most out of him as a finished product? That's what it all comes down to.

EDIT: I want to add to this too, because I think I missed some important pieces. Have we seen JJ play well? We definitely have, and there are numerous examples of great games from him. We've also seen plenty of 'wow' plays from him. And the issue isn't really consistency, it's more like volume. We just haven't seen it enough. We never saw him carry a team to victory, even though he played a big part. Is that great coaching or protective coaching? If I were a team interested in JJ, I'd be up Sherrone Moore's butt asking him questions to try to fill in the blanks here.

Edited by minutemancl
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Put me in the group that thinks the Rams really want JJ, and not a lot of other people do.

I dunno, man. He may be the next Tom Brady, and not because of Michigan, or he may be the next Robert Griffin.

Edited by Techbert
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4 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I would say that he needs the Patrick Mahomes/Jordan Love treatment where he sits 1-3 years, but he basically didn't play this season either.

That's definitely an interesting aspect of the conversation with McCarthy.  Normally you'd definitely say, "raw project QB" should probably sit for a while and learn.  But because of the situation he's coming out of...probably the biggest thing he really needs, is just a lot more actual reps and throws under his belt.  Which you're not really going to get, just sitting on the bench.

Kind of a weird dynamic.

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5 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I would say that he needs the Patrick Mahomes/Jordan Love treatment where he sits 1-3 years, but he basically didn't play this season either.

Keep in mind he's also like a year younger than Williams.

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19 minutes ago, DigInBoys said:

Keep in mind he's also like a year younger than Williams.

Yeah, he's not a bad project at all.  It's just that I do not think you could sell an owner on "he's our starting QB for this year". You need at least a stopgap in place and he can compete to win the job.  Like the best case scenario would be something like the Seahawks drafting Russell Wilson and him beating out Matt Flynn (who they just signed) in training camp.  He's just not going to be plan A for anybody.

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48 minutes ago, RandomCampBody said:

Sounds like the hype around JJ McCarthy is rising fast and him likely going top 10

Count me in the camp that says that won't happen. It only takes one team to fall in love with a player but I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't taken in the first round at all. 

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What drives me crazy on him is that I could not tell you his floor.  How many players who are talked about in the 1st round do you know know their base.   I am more confident that I know what I would get with Greyson McCall than McCarthy.

Edited by jebrick
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I mean, his ceiling is unlimited if the physical tools grade out as reported.

The floor is as low as it gets because of the lack of actual NFL-level throws/situations.

Top 10 would be wild, but I will say if you want to go for the unknown with a 20-year tools guy with strong intangibles, I'd rather have that than the 24 year old who took forever to find success despite years of starting (Bo Nix).    It's not that Door A is likely to succeed - it's that the ceiling is sky-high.   You take the late-bloomer types - their ceiling is pretty much capped.   I'd prefer to pass altogether at the early-mid R1 price if I'm being honest.

If I was a team in the top 15, I'd either move up for the top 2 guys or hope someone wants to move up for McCarthy.     If you had to choose between McCarthy & Nix / Penix, I get the argument for McCarthy (although Penix has the highest floor because of his skills, he also has such huge medical flags and the effects on his functional mobility are legit IMO - it's too bad, pre-injury Penix @ IND was special IMO). 

Edited by Broncofan
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