Will the Ravens ever win the Superbowl with Lamar Jackson?

[MagicMT]

32 minutes ago, Bonanza23 said:

I’m going to go ahead and call this the Ridder Effect. If it just wasn’t for those 4 turnovers he had a good game. If it wasn’t for his poor play in the playoffs he’d be pretty danged good qb. 
 

Top defense. Like literally top defense. They played great. Reference the best defense thread where raven fan was smashing the like button on their big D. All Lamar had to do is just manage the game and throw strikes. He didn’t do it. Like at all. He hesitated and was confused. That is his MO since his college days. He just simply crumbles in pressured big games. 
 

So will the ravens win a super bowl with Lamar?  I actually doubt it. This year was possibly their best chance with that elite defense. I actually thought Lamar did a bang up job during the regular season. I thought he actually straightened out his brains hesitation. But he absolutely did not. He’s the same Lamar I’ve watched since his college days. 
 

But if it just wasn’t for his not playing good in the playoffs, he’d be winning playoff games. 
 

I don't want to excuse his poor play, he definitely isn't a good playoff QB right now. I get what you're saying. He improved a lot this year and I think that he can get even better in Monken's offense next year(s). He doesn't have to be the best QB in the league to win the SB, althought this year his team had an incredible defense and it's absolutely fair to say this was probably his best shot. I just think that with the right conditions (granted, might never be better than they were this year) Jackson COULD win a SB, but he absolutely isn't playing his best ball in the playoffs. I understand an "I'll believe it when I see it" attitude, just like you displayed in this post. But saying he has no chance at all I don't get it, Ravens are always in the playoffs or almost, you never know he might go on a run and/or get real lucky for a couple of games. 

[Bonanza23]

4 minutes ago, MagicMT said:

I don't want to excuse his poor play, he definitely isn't a good playoff QB right now. I get what you're saying. He improved a lot this year and I think that he can get even better in Monken's offense next year(s). He doesn't have to be the best QB in the league to win the SB, althought this year his team had an incredible defense and it's absolutely fair to say this was probably his best shot. I just think that with the right conditions (granted, might never be better than they were this year) Jackson COULD win a SB, but he absolutely isn't playing his best ball in the playoffs. I understand an "I'll believe it when I see it" attitude, just like you displayed in this post. But saying he has no chance at all I don't get it, Ravens are always in the playoffs or almost, you never know he might go on a run and/or get real lucky for a couple of games. 

But he has played his best ball in the playoffs. He has a track record dating back to his college days. He folds under pressure. It’s not the offensive coordinator. It’s him. 

[topwop1]

To answer the main post.. probably not if I had to guess

Lamar has yet to have that marquee playoff performance. Yes it's a team sport  but I haven't seen LJ elevate his team when they needed him most like the other elite QBs in this league have done. 

In yesterday's game against KC, yes there were dumb penalties and yes Flowers made a cpl big mistakes that didn't help but LJ was still poor passing the football for the most part in that game 

But you never know, they may get lucky one of these years and do it..just won't be easy with the gauntlet of QBs Balt will have to face in the AFC 

 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

23 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

To answer the main post.. probably not if I had to guess

Lamar has yet to have that marquee playoff performance. Yes it's a team sport  but I haven't seen LJ elevate his team when they needed him most like the other elite QBs in this league have done. 

In yesterday's game against KC, yes there were dumb penalties and yes Flowers made a cpl big mistakes that didn't help but LJ was still poor passing the football for the most part in that game 

But you never know, they may get lucky one of these years and do it..just won't be easy with the gauntlet of QBs Balt will have to face in the AFC 

 

You don't think he elevated against HOU?

[Jakuvious]

26 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

You don't think he elevated against HOU?

He played very well, though I think most would view that as the kind of playoff game a great team should win handily, not anything that's overly remarkable. Bills didn't get much praise for beating Pittsburgh. Mahomes beating Jacksonville last year or Miami this year are honestly relatively forgettable games. Those are the games the high seeds are expected to just win pretty comfortably as a reward for their high seeding. That's doing what is expected more than elevating when needed, I think.

[El Ramster]

17 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

He played very well, though I think most would view that as the kind of playoff game a great team should win handily, not anything that's overly remarkable. Bills didn't get much praise for beating Pittsburgh. Mahomes beating Jacksonville last year or Miami this year are honestly relatively forgettable games. Those are the games the high seeds are expected to just win pretty comfortably as a reward for their high seeding. That's doing what is expected more than elevating when needed, I think.

Absolutely 100% and that was the defense crushing a young team. Lamar played his normal self which was too much for Houston. Although, that first half he was held in check. 

[Soko]

4 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

He seems to perform like one during the regular season. PFF's no. 1 QB of 2023. The efficiency stats and graders both agree he was during the regular season.

Simple yes or no, will suffice.

4 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2023-analytical-quarterback-rankings-lamar-jackson-dak-prescott-lead-the-way

Are Dak, Purdy, and Tua, also elite passers? 

Why are you hyperfixated on people giving you a stat line, when you yourself in your first post ITT said that you expect Lamar to keep improving?

Why are you using three QBs who “had their best years in their 30s”, when two of them A) never finished a season in their 30s due to injuries/poor play, and B) did have career years at 30 and 35, but were largely awful outside of those two outlier seasons? Why, if the question includes durability, does Cam Newton not count in that conversation? Why does Steve Young become a good example if he never even had the opportunity to start a full season, until he was 30 years old himself? Why are any of them really all that good of examples, when Jackson rushes more than any of them? Why are you omitting seasons’ passer ratings where Lamar later got hurt, but was otherwise healthy before then? Why are you pretending that it’s common for mobile QBs to play “into their 30s”, when it’s clear and obvious that pocket guys generally play longer?

I’m just trying to make sense of all the tap dancing in here. Thats all.

[RuskieTitan]

The guy just can't handle the pressure of the playoffs. Regular season, he's able to play fast and loose, and performs. He's likely deserving the second MVP. But just like countless other chokers in other sports, when it comes to the playoffs he withers. 2-5, this is who he is. Using a Houston team that barely made the playoffs as some example of him doing well, he didn't feel the same pressure - his defense gave up 3 all game, special teams the other 7.

Could they go on a streak and win? Possibly, but unlikely if Lamar continues to be who he is when he faces elite teams in the playoffs. And with how crowded the AFC is, it's no guarantee his regular season success ever reaches the postseason.

[Nobellythrower]

Is any qb in the afc going to make the  superbowl?  this is was a down year and mahomes is back in the superbowl 

[AngusMcFife]

4 hours ago, Soko said:

Simple yes or no, will suffice.

Are Dak, Purdy, and Tua, also elite passers? 

Why are you hyperfixated on people giving you a stat line, when you yourself in your first post ITT said that you expect Lamar to keep improving?

Why are you using three QBs who “had their best years in their 30s”, when two of them A) never finished a season in their 30s due to injuries/poor play, and B) did have career years at 30 and 35, but were largely awful outside of those two outlier seasons? Why, if the question includes durability, does Cam Newton not count in that conversation? Why does Steve Young become a good example if he never even had the opportunity to start a full season, until he was 30 years old himself? Why are any of them really all that good of examples, when Jackson rushes more than any of them? Why are you omitting seasons’ passer ratings where Lamar later got hurt, but was otherwise healthy before then? Why are you pretending that it’s common for mobile QBs to play “into their 30s”, when it’s clear and obvious that pocket guys generally play longer?

I’m just trying to make sense of all the tap dancing in here. Thats all.

You'll have to define elite passer for me. Who are the elite passers for you, and what traits do they have?

That's too many questions, sorry I don't have time to answer them all. A more focused response would be helpful.

Cam is excluded because he had a debilitating shoulder injury that curtailed his career. That's pretty obvious, right? Any QB, mobile or not, couldn't survive that.

Who is your comp for Lamar then? Vick, Cunningham, and Young are the closest I can think of. Cam is a fullback/inside runner, not really a good comparison at all.

There are very obvious reasons why Vick and Cunningham had inconsistent years in their 30s. The state of sports health and medicine is just completely different now. Elite athletes can play into their late 30s in many sports now. When Vick and Cunningham were healthy and surrounded by decent talent in their 30s, they completely balled out.

[49ersfan]

1 hour ago, Nobellythrower said:

Is any qb in the afc going to make the  superbowl?  this is was a down year and mahomes is back in the superbowl 

Going back the last 20 seasons (so, 2004 season to 2023 season) the AFC SB QB's have overwhelmingly been Brady, Mahomes, Manning & Roethlisberger. 

Flacco made it in 2012 & Burrow made it in 2021 but thats it. 

The AFC is stacked at QB after Mahomes with Burrow, Allen, Lamar, Herbert & now Stroud. But Mahomes has been dominating with 4 of the last 5 appearances. Its tough for everyone to get past him 

[Soko]

46 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

You'll have to define elite passer for me. Who are the elite passers for you, and what traits do they have?

I’m not asking you to go by my definition. Use your own, unless you don’t have any concept for what an elite passer might be, even in your own view? You used an article to support your opinion (or lack thereof, because you seem reluctant), one that showed Purdy, Tua, and Dak also at the top of the league in categories - so do you find them to be elite passers as well? How many elite passers are there in the NFL, if we’re including Lamar, Dak, Purdy, and Tua? Mahomes, Josh and Burrow, obviously. That’s minimum 7. Is Goff? Is Cousins? Is Stroud?

46 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Cam is excluded because he had a debilitating shoulder injury that curtailed his career. That's pretty obvious, right? Any QB, mobile or not, couldn't survive that.

Part of the concern with mobile QBs is their long term durability. I would call Cam’s list of injuries (sans the back fractures from an unrelated car accident) concerns from a durability standpoint. Sure, anyone could get injured and drastically hurt their career (Pennington?), but even your best examples have shown clear, constant durability issues. Pocket passers have generally shown greater durability than those of Vick, Cunningham, and Cam. 

46 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Who is your comp for Lamar then? Vick, Cunningham, and Young are the closest I can think of. Cam is a fullback/inside runner, not really a good comparison at all.

There doesn’t need to be a comp, because I’m not trying to find examples of XYZ to support my opinion, as you are. 

46 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

There are very obvious reasons why Vick and Cunningham had inconsistent years in their 30s. The state of sports health and medicine is just completely different now. Elite athletes can play into their late 30s in many sports now. When Vick and Cunningham were healthy and surrounded by decent talent in their 30s, they completely balled out.

Yes, those very obvious reasons include their durability (poor) and their inconsistent play. They had single, outlier seasons - Vick at 30, and Cunningham at 35. Outside of those seasons, they either regressed to what they once were, or were hurt. 

Can you explain why Vick and Cunningham are good examples of mobile QBs playing “into their 30s”, when they’ve both largely been injury prone for most of those seasons? 

[notthatbluestuff]

17 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

Going back the last 20 seasons (so, 2004 season to 2023 season) the AFC SB QB's have overwhelmingly been Brady, Mahomes, Manning & Roethlisberger. 

Flacco made it in 2012 & Burrow made it in 2021 but thats it. 

The AFC is stacked at QB after Mahomes with Burrow, Allen, Lamar, Herbert & now Stroud. But Mahomes has been dominating with 4 of the last 5 appearances. Its tough for everyone to get past him 

And in Brady's first six years as a starter, the only other AFC SB QBs were Gannon (Pats missed the playoffs in 2002), Ben, and Manning. For Mahomes, the only others have been Brady and Burrow. Both of them were/are major roadblocks for a lot of guys, that's for sure.

[AngusMcFife]

1 minute ago, Soko said:

I’m not asking you to go by my definition. Use your own, unless you don’t have any concept for what an elite passer might be, even in your own view? You used an article to support your opinion (or lack thereof, because you seem reluctant), one that showed Purdy, Tua, and Dak also at the top of the league in categories - so do you find them to be elite passers as well? How many elite passers are there in the NFL, if we’re including Lamar, Dak, Purdy, and Tua? Mahomes, Josh and Burrow, obviously. That’s minimum 7. Is Goff? Is Cousins? Is Stroud?

Part of the concern with mobile QBs is their long term durability. I would call Cam’s list of injuries (sans the back fractures from an unrelated car accident) concerns from a durability standpoint. Sure, anyone could get injured and drastically hurt their career (Pennington?), but even your best examples have shown clear, constant durability issues. Pocket passers have generally shown greater durability than those of Vick, Cunningham, and Cam. 

There doesn’t need to be a comp, because I’m not trying to find examples of XYZ to support my opinion, as you are. 

Yes, those very obvious reasons include their durability (poor) and their inconsistent play. They had single, outlier seasons - Vick at 30, and Cunningham at 35. Outside of those seasons, they either regressed to what they once were, or were hurt. 

Can you explain why Vick and Cunningham are good examples of mobile QBs playing “into their 30s”, when they’ve both largely been injury prone for most of those seasons? 

With Lamar, my point of bringing up his numbers is this:

Passer rating:
Surrounded by good/very good talent (2019): ~115
Surrounded by average talent (2020, 2023): ~100
Surrounded by poor talent (2021-2022): ~90

If you want to hold the 2021-2 seasons against him, that's fine, but he was playing with an injury decimated squad with Greg Roman as OC and Demarcus Robinson as WR1.

It's worth noting that Mahomes rating this year was 92. So Lamar and the most elite passer in the NFL do fluctuate their efficiency based on their surrounding cast. Mahomes also obviously has the benefit of the greatest offensive mind of the 20th century coaching him.

I don't consider Lamar an elite passer. Good/very good seems like an accurate tier. That's good enough to win the Super Bowl. But he's improving, he adds throws to his repertoire every year.

Vick and Cunningham are great examples because they show that "running QBs" do improve their passing ability as they age, and when they have a healthy, well-supported season, they can be elite players in their 30s. I assume Lamar will age better than them because 1) he won't be in prison for a couple years (most likely), 2) doesn't get consistently rocked like Cunningham did, taking 60 sacks per season, and 3) health science has allowed athletes to maintain their ability late into their 30s (LeBron, Brady, Djokavic, etc.).

Lamar has never had surgery, just bruises or strains. His body is in great shape and I see no reason to be pessimistic on that front.

[Soko]

21 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

I don't consider Lamar an elite passer. Good/very good seems like an accurate tier. That's good enough to win the Super Bowl. But he's improving, he adds throws to his repertoire every year.

Then I question where your concern is as far as the guy saying Lamar should hope to radically improve as a pocket passer? If he’s only good/very good now, then elevating to an elite passer should constitute a “radical improvement”. 

21 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Vick and Cunningham are great examples because they show that "running QBs" do improve their passing ability as they age, and when they have a healthy, well-supported season, they can be elite players in their 30s. 

“When they have a healthy season” - that’s the problem. They hardly ever do. You’re forgoing the durability part in order to justify having an elite, outlier season (most of their years in their 30s they either didn’t play, were hurt, or played badly). That makes them horrible examples, because you’re trying to use single outlier seasons as a minimum standard, while ignoring all the issues they had performing on the field outside of those outliers.

21 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

I assume Lamar will age better than them because 1) he won't be in prison for a couple years (most likely)

Vick’s biggest issue was his durability, in this sense. After his great season with Philly, I don’t see how the prison stint mattered going forward. Like, Vick didn’t get hurt/suck in 2011 because he missed the 2007/2008 seasons. He had an outlier season in 2010 (one in which he also battled injuries) and then fell back down to earth.

21 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

2) doesn't get consistently rocked like Cunningham did, taking 60 sacks per season

Jackson rushes more than anyone in this discussion. 

21 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

3) health science has allowed athletes to maintain their ability late into their 30s (LeBron, Brady, Djokavic, etc.).

Plenty of QBs have played well into their 30s, well before all of this medical innovation.

While you may believe that Lamar’s career will go longer as a result of medical innovation, that opinion holds about as much weight as those who believe Lamar will run into durability issues as he ages.