Tugboat Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 (edited) Anyone else kind of chuckle at the comment/tidbit this morning that Jackson Powers-Johnson apparently sings "Alto" in gospel choir? Generally referred to as "Countertenor" when a dude sings that high, as it's traditionally a Female singers part. 😆 Just has to have been such a funny situation watching a 6'3" 330lb mauler of a dude like that saunter into an audition and start singing an Alto part. :laugh: Not what you'd typically expect. Plus side though...his voice is probably in a register that if/when he has to be heard on the field, it's probably gonna stand out and cut through the noise. lol. Edited March 4 by Tugboat 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzy Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 (edited) 38 minutes ago, Tugboat said: Oh, for sure. There will be solid starters out of this group. There will also be a ton of "filler" that just isn't good enough as well though. If you're just looking for solid guys to add to your depth or rotation, this draft looks great. If you're looking for a true "feature back" though, i think it's a lot more iffy. You're really just throwing darts around Day3 and UDFA. My point is more just that...if you just glance through say, the Top-32 Rushers even in just bulk yardage last year...I count 23 who were picked either 1st Round or 2nd/3rd Round on Day2. That's ~72%. Pushing toward 3 in 4 of those top rushers came from the more "premium" picks of the first three rounds of the draft. That's still pretty substantial, and a strong indicator that you're ultimately still a lot more likely to "hit" on a real starter with an earlier pick (if the guy worthy of that pick is there). Especially skewed earlier toward 1st/2nd with the very top of the charts that i'd call true "impact RBs". The "special" ones. Doesn't mean you can't find or won't find guys later and even in UDFA. Especially in a draft like this one that looks really "bottom heavy" in later Day2/Day3/UDFA guys who simply won't be drafted like you said, due to the abundance of supply. It's still just like saying, "Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Drew Brees won Super Bowls so you don't need to spend a 1st Round Pick on a QB". Where it's true...but you've still got much better odds of landing a Super Bowl caliber QB in the 1st round. Same still goes for RBs...just with the brackets widened to basically 3 Rounds, and a completely different paradigm when it comes to what happens if you land a "just good enough" RB. But it's all kind of moot point, because i'm not sure there are more than a very small few RBs in this draft who are actually worth one of those "Day2 Picks" anyway. So you're really just sifting through the rest on Day3 and scrambling to scoop some more up immediately after the draft. James Conner was a 3rd rounder and was 6th in the NFL in rushing, Kyren Williams of course was a 5th rounder and was 3rd in the NFL in rushing, David Montgomery 3rd rounder and 9th in the NFL in rushing, Raheem Mostert 10th and he was a UDFA, Tony Pollard 4th rounder and was 12th, Rachaad White 14th as a 3rd rounder, Pacheco 18th in rushing as a 7th rounder, Chuba Hubbard was 20th as a 4th rounder, Devin Singletary 21st as a 3rd rounder, Jerome Ford 23th as a 5th rounder, Gus Edwards 24th as a UDFA, Achane 26th as a 3th rounder, Zach Moss 27th as a 3rd rounder, Jaylen Warren UDFA was 28th, Brian Robinson 31st as a 3rd rounder and Alexander Mattison 32nd as a 3rd rounder. Another way to say it, that is 16 players out of the top 32 rushers in the league in terms of total yards that are 3rd round picks or later in the draft. That is 50%, maybe to you a 3rd round pick is a high selection but to me it is not really for a starter. 8 of those 16 were not 3rd round picks by the way. Honestly even the top guys have such average numbers outside of McCaffrey who at least came close to 1500 yards, Henry did not even crack 1200 yards as the 2nd highest. And it is a group position where almost every team has multiple backs and the one single bell cow back is kind of dead. So having a premium RB is just simply not that important and even if they are just one dude they have to be a pass catcher or provide something outside of just running the ball honestly. Chiefs draft Edwards-Helaire 1st round and Pacheco is the star and makes very little money at all. 49ers before McCaffrey were successful with Mostert a UDFA and Elijah Mitchell the 6th rounder. Still in this draft alone, one could have a total tank like Braelon Allen fall super far in the draft and he is a 240 beast that I assume when healthy runs extremely well. Sure a bit of a fumble issue but the guy is an elite talent physically and one could get him on the total cheap in the 2nd or 3rd round potentially. 20 years ago he would probably be a 1st rounder, same with Corum. Gibbs and Robinson when high last year but both could catch the football out of the backfield which increases their value greatly and allowed them I assume to be selected that high. In this draft not sure there are any real dynamic pass catching backs honestly, Tyrone Tracy but that is only because he literally was a WR on Iowa then made the transition to RB on Purdue and is interesting because of that. So backs if you want to get paid do what Christian McCaffrey does an be a great route runner and basically a slot WR when you go out and catch the football, otherwise teams will simply not pay you and just pay/draft your replacement when you contract is up. Edited March 4 by Ozzy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 12 minutes ago, Ozzy said: James Conner was a 3rd rounder and was 6th in the NFL in rushing, Kyren Williams of course was a 5th rounder and was 3rd in the NFL in rushing, David Montgomery 3rd rounder and 9th in the NFL in rushing, Raheem Mostert 10th and he was a UDFA, Tony Pollard 4th rounder and was 12th, Rachaad White 14th as a 3rd rounder, Pacheco 18th in rushing as a 7th rounder, Chuba Hubbard was 20th as a 4th rounder, Devin Singletary 21st as a 3rd rounder, Jerome Ford 23th as a 5th rounder, Gus Edwards 24th as a UDFA, Achane 26th as a 3th rounder, Zach Moss 27th as a 3rd rounder, Jaylen Warren UDFA was 28th, Brian Robinson 31st as a 3rd rounder and Alexander Mattison 32nd as a 3rd rounder. Another way to say it, that is 16 players out of the top 32 rushers in the league in terms of total yards that are 3rd round picks or later in the draft. That is 50%, maybe to you a 3rd round pick is a high selection but to me it is not really for a starter. 8 of those 16 were not 3rd round picks by the way. Honestly even the top guys have such average numbers outside of McCaffrey who at least came close to 1500 yards, Henry did not even crack 1200 yards as the 2nd highest. And it is a group position where almost every team has multiple backs and the one single bell cow back is kind of dead. So having a premium RB is just simply not that important and even if they are just one dude they have to be a pass catcher or provide something outside of just running the ball honestly. Chiefs draft Edwards-Helaire 1st round and Pacheco is the star and makes very little money at all. 49ers before McCaffrey were successful with Mostert a UDFA and Elijah Mitchell the 6th rounder. Still in this draft alone, one could have a total tank like Braelon Allen fall super far in the draft and he is a 240 beast that I assume when healthy runs extremely well. Sure a bit of a fumble issue but the guy is an elite talent physically and one could get him on the total cheap in the 2nd or 3rd round potentially. 20 years ago he would probably be a 1st rounder, same with Corum. Gibbs and Robinson when high last year but both could catch the football out of the backfield which increases their value greatly and allowed them I assume to be selected that high. In this draft not sure there are any real dynamic pass catching backs honestly, Tyrone Tracy but that is only because he literally was a WR on Iowa then made the transition to RB on Purdue and is interesting because of that. So backs if you want to get paid do what Christian McCaffrey does an be a great route runner and basically a slot WR when you go out and catch the football, otherwise teams will simply not pay you and just pay/draft your replacement when you contract is up. I think it typically makes a lot more sense to draw a line and define a "high pick" by Day1+2 vs Day 3. Day 1 and 2 guys are generally expected to be "starters" and step in right away. Day 3 guys are where it starts to turn more into darts in the board, regional picks, positional depth filling with projects, etc. So RBs being drafted in Rounds 1-3 is attaching a relatively "premium" pricetag to them...especially considering the overall devaluation of the position as mentioned. You can reframe it however...but that's where it makes sense to draw the line to me. You can pull all sorts of individual situational anecdotes where other stuff happened, but the odds still generally favor productive backs coming from Day1/2 on the whole. Just as the hit rate on pretty much every position drops off to various degrees around that point. I don't really disagree with what you're saying in general. I just think you're misrepresenting and overestimating some of the probabilities a little bit. ie. I don't believe that we're "likely" to get more impact Top-20 type RBs out of a draft like this with nobody worthy of a Round1 pick, may not even see more than a single guy go Round2, and probably don't see a run until late Round3 at the earliest and will be heavily skewed toward the back end and UDFA. Even if there's a raft of them. Compared to a more typical draft that features some real "1st round caliber" talents, and a bundle of guys who merit a solid 2nd or 3rd round pick. It could happen. It's just highly improbable. If there were that many studs in this draft, we'd be talking about a lot more guys going a lot higher. This draft has a lot of guys who have holes in their skillset, tape, or aren't very apparent in their dynamic ability. Which is fine and there will be guys who exceed expectations when they land in the perfect situation. It is what it is. Just a very bottom-heavy RB class. Should provide lots of depth around the league. Just don't know that i'd be expecting a bunch of impact bell cows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzy Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 24 minutes ago, Tugboat said: I think it typically makes a lot more sense to draw a line and define a "high pick" by Day1+2 vs Day 3. Day 1 and 2 guys are generally expected to be "starters" and step in right away. Day 3 guys are where it starts to turn more into darts in the board, regional picks, positional depth filling with projects, etc. So RBs being drafted in Rounds 1-3 is attaching a relatively "premium" pricetag to them...especially considering the overall devaluation of the position as mentioned. You can reframe it however...but that's where it makes sense to draw the line to me. You can pull all sorts of individual situational anecdotes where other stuff happened, but the odds still generally favor productive backs coming from Day1/2 on the whole. Just as the hit rate on pretty much every position drops off to various degrees around that point. I don't really disagree with what you're saying in general. I just think you're misrepresenting and overestimating some of the probabilities a little bit. ie. I don't believe that we're "likely" to get more impact Top-20 type RBs out of a draft like this with nobody worthy of a Round1 pick, may not even see more than a single guy go Round2, and probably don't see a run until late Round3 at the earliest and will be heavily skewed toward the back end and UDFA. Even if there's a raft of them. Compared to a more typical draft that features some real "1st round caliber" talents, and a bundle of guys who merit a solid 2nd or 3rd round pick. It could happen. It's just highly improbable. If there were that many studs in this draft, we'd be talking about a lot more guys going a lot higher. This draft has a lot of guys who have holes in their skillset, tape, or aren't very apparent in their dynamic ability. Which is fine and there will be guys who exceed expectations when they land in the perfect situation. It is what it is. Just a very bottom-heavy RB class. Should provide lots of depth around the league. Just don't know that i'd be expecting a bunch of impact bell cows. Before the season started I had Braelon Allen and Blake Corum as 1st round picks, possibly had TreVeyon Henderson in the 1st round or right high in the 2nd as well. Sure Henderson is not in the draft but 15-20 years ago Allen and Corum would have been 1st round picks no question. But none of them are great out of the backfield but still obviously the game has changed and having 1 bell cow running back is just not really a thing for most teams. So talent wise not sure those guys are some garbage backs or something. Just seems unless one has super track speed and can catch the ball out of the backfield, not likely you go 1st round as a RB with the depth year after year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 🤣 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 12 minutes ago, Ozzy said: Before the season started I had Braelon Allen and Blake Corum as 1st round picks, possibly had TreVeyon Henderson in the 1st round or right high in the 2nd as well. Sure Henderson is not in the draft but 15-20 years ago Allen and Corum would have been 1st round picks no question. But none of them are great out of the backfield but still obviously the game has changed and having 1 bell cow running back is just not really a thing for most teams. So talent wise not sure those guys are some garbage backs or something. Just seems unless one has super track speed and can catch the ball out of the backfield, not likely you go 1st round as a RB with the depth year after year. Again, not saying these are "garbage backs" or anything resembling that. I'm just saying...they're backs with holes or flaws in their game. It's where we certainly don't have any of the "complete" impact RBs who have the "total package" that would get them considered in the 1st round. We very well may only end up with a few guys even going Day2. Doesn't mean there aren't things to like about guys amongst this bottom-heavy RB class. Especially when you can get a guy with some sort of upside at that "value". But as much as the NFL and all of us often "get it wrong" and let quality RBs slip through the cracks...i just don't see it as all that likely that we get a whole ton of top RBs out of this draft. More likely to get a lot of useful rotation guys and a couple who exceed expectations. As much as the "bell cow" is sort of a thing of the past...it's also conversely put pressure on the opposite element of "completeness" that a lot of RBs in this class are lacking. That ability to "do it all". Literally everything. From running outside, pressing between the tackles, home runs, thumping goal line carries, third down use, screens, outlets, even getting split out as a receiver, as well as being a capable pass protector because every down is now a passing down...along with anything else under the sun. That has far more of a "premium" today than less complete backs used to have. Because you have far less of a distinction between your "Bell Cow" and "Situational" Goal Line or 3rd Down type backs. You don't want to have to change up playcalling just because you're running one guy in/out of the huddle for a breather. It's too much of a telegraph if guys have obvious holes in their game or limitations. That's where you tend to get those Day1/2 backs who have more fully well-rounded "every down" and "all situations" skillsets, and/or something very unique or special. I think Corum in particular did a lot for solidifying himself as that at the combine, as well as being healthy. But this draft is lacking a lot of that. Only a handful who really fit that bill. That's all. 🤷♀️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 16 minutes ago, Forge said: 🤣 So funny watching his workout today. He honestly came in with a far more "tidy" athletic sort of build than the vast majority of OLine guys though. He carried a lot less "spare weight" around with him through everything. Doesn't feel like your classic, stereotypical Wisconsin OLineman in some ways. But in other ways, he fits the profile to a T. 😆 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.UFO Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 2 hours ago, Tugboat said: Anyone else kind of chuckle at the comment/tidbit this morning that Jackson Powers-Johnson apparently sings "Alto" in gospel choir? Generally referred to as "Countertenor" when a dude sings that high, as it's traditionally a Female singers part. 😆 Just has to have been such a funny situation watching a 6'3" 330lb mauler of a dude like that saunter into an audition and start singing an Alto part. :laugh: Not what you'd typically expect. Plus side though...his voice is probably in a register that if/when he has to be heard on the field, it's probably gonna stand out and cut through the noise. lol. It's like that gummy candy commercial when they dub children's voices for two big defensive tackles sitting on the bench. Some GMs are swayed more by the Combine than others. But based on QB throwing workouts, there's a chance that Spencer Rattler (SCU) may be drafted ahead of Michael Penix (Wsh). J.J. McCarthy (Mch) and Bo Nix (Or) also did not wow people during drills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teen Girl Squad Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 23 minutes ago, 11sanchez11 said: That number was a bit freakish for his frame/athletic profile so I'm not surprised, though it was fun to think it happened for a minute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinderFournette Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 9 hours ago, Tugboat said: I'm kind of torn on exactly what the Jaguars need at RB. At WR, they need more size and i don't think it's even close to a question - though they need decent speed to go with that. At RB...they need more speed and dynamic ability from the non-ETN roster spots. But they could also use a real physical "wear 'em out" bruiser as a counterpunch to ETN as well. Frankly, between the draft, UDFA and veteran FA...i'd hope they bring in at least one of each. I feel like our offense needs more speed. Wether that comes from wr, RB or TE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jebrick Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 10 hours ago, Forge said: 🤣 Still a day 3 pick but he did perform well at the combine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaddHatter Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 11 hours ago, Forge said: 🤣 Kenny Powers' long lost son Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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