Packers Signing RB Josh Jacobs

[PossibleCabbage]

3 hours ago, craig said:

Bunch of good backs in 3rd round range.  Fine to trust Gute and his guys to find one regardless of style.  Should be fine.

The top 6 backs in the draft are all about the same grade for most people, so I expect there's going to be a game of chicken for "wait for someone else to take the first one."

[craig]

2 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

The top 6 backs in the draft are all about the same grade for most people, so I expect there's going to be a game of chicken for "wait for someone else to take the first one."

Gute's guys often have evaluations that differ from some other sources.  Hard to guess how/who/where they see the value.  

[{Family Ghost}]

I'll just say it now .. I'm jacked about the potential of Josh Jacobs in GB.  Sure, his 2023 was subpar, but that mess in Las Vegas is the reason we are able to get him in GB.  The run blocking last year for the Raiders was pathetic.  Jacobs 2022 season was top level stuff.  Dan Orlovsky dropped a really wild tidbit on ESPN today .. Josh Jacobs had over 1,000 yds rushing in 2022 ... On first down.  

[Refugee]

16 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

I'll just say it now .. I'm jacked about the potential of Josh Jacobs in GB.  Sure, his 2023 was subpar, but that mess in Las Vegas is the reason we are able to get him in GB.  The run blocking last year for the Raiders was pathetic.  Jacobs 2022 season was top level stuff.  Dan Orlovsky dropped a really wild tidbit on ESPN today .. Josh Jacobs had over 1,000 yds rushing in 2022 ... On first down.  

Man, that’s a flex to get 1,000 yd run on first down. Man breaks the ltg, and then runs 10 laps before other team tackles him. 
 

kidding aside, I think we could really have some fun with a piece like JJ. I do hope we get another complementary and high ceiling back. No matter what, guys better be ready to pass protect and block down field. Hopefully our WRs will return the favor. 

[persiandud]

35 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

I'll just say it now .. I'm jacked about the potential of Josh Jacobs in GB.  Sure, his 2023 was subpar, but that mess in Las Vegas is the reason we are able to get him in GB.  The run blocking last year for the Raiders was pathetic.  Jacobs 2022 season was top level stuff.  Dan Orlovsky dropped a really wild tidbit on ESPN today .. Josh Jacobs had over 1,000 yds rushing in 2022 ... On first down.  

per ESPN, Raiders run blocking ranked 18th, Packers were 16th

[vegas492]

8 hours ago, persiandud said:

per ESPN, Raiders run blocking ranked 18th, Packers were 16th

I wonder what ours was if you took out the last 5-6 games.  Had to be worse than 18th.  

Then I wonder what ours was over the last 5-6 games.  Had to be top 8ish at least.

[Isherwood]

One thing that encourages me is that 2023 is being called a “horrible” year for him and he still generated 1100 all-purpose yards in an awful offense that got their head coach fired.

If that’s the absolute floor 🤞 that’s pretty good. 

[craig]

10 hours ago, persiandud said:

per ESPN, Raiders run blocking ranked 18th, Packers were 16th

Interesting.  Yeah, that doesn't support the view that Jacob's bad-ness was totally awful blocking.  

In a negative ESPN-article, it referenced "yards-above-expected" for running backs. That metric had calculated that Jacobs was way above-expected gains in 2022, but had been below-expected yardage, sometimes significantly, in not only 23 but in 20 and 21 as well.  One of the worst in the league this past season. 

That particular data suggests his bad-ness maybe wasn't all Raiders OL and QB?  (The "expectation" should presumably factor in whether a defense is crowding the box.).   

But yeah, I'm not sure who or how they calculate the "expectation".  Football "stats" are often pretty imperfect.  I would think "expected" yardage might be one of the most imprecise calculations in a game that is hard to quantify.  

Didn't Jacobs also have some injury that he played through this year, that perhaps compromised his explosiveness?  

[craig]

Would sure be awesome if Jacobs came in healthy, stayed healthy, and ended up being a really good, diverse all-purpose back.  Strong/quick/decisive enough to run well between tackles.  Decisive enough and quick enough to do well with some outside runs, too.  Strong/powerful/decisive for converting short-yardage 1st downs and TD's.  A really good pass receiver.  A really good pass blocker.  A good back for 4th-quarter drives when MLF is trying to run clock.  

Hopefully being on a new and a winning team with a healthy and happy culture will be super energizing for him, that can often happen to guys.  Hopefully the o-line will extend some of the improved run-blocking they showed late last season.  (Who knows how Rhyan might do if he has a full camp as the starter and is getting all the snaps? Or perhaps if we draft a really good guard who is a much better run-blocked than Runyan ever was?). 

Am optimistic.  

[Sandy]

55 minutes ago, craig said:

Would sure be awesome if Jacobs came in healthy, stayed healthy, and ended up being a really good, diverse all-purpose back.  Strong/quick/decisive enough to run well between tackles.  Decisive enough and quick enough to do well with some outside runs, too.  Strong/powerful/decisive for converting short-yardage 1st downs and TD's.  A really good pass receiver.  A really good pass blocker.  A good back for 4th-quarter drives when MLF is trying to run clock.  

Hopefully being on a new and a winning team with a healthy and happy culture will be super energizing for him, that can often happen to guys.  Hopefully the o-line will extend some of the improved run-blocking they showed late last season.  (Who knows how Rhyan might do if he has a full camp as the starter and is getting all the snaps? Or perhaps if we draft a really good guard who is a much better run-blocked than Runyan ever was?). 

Am optimistic.  

I think it run blocking is automatically upgraded even if it's Rhyan this year.

Pass blocking was always gonna take a hit losing Runyan, but I think the offense is really becoming the LaFleur offense for the first time, and I'm excited to see it. Jacobs is gonna have a big year for us. 

[{Family Ghost}]

1 hour ago, craig said:

Interesting.  Yeah, that doesn't support the view that Jacob's bad-ness was totally awful blocking.  

In a negative ESPN-article, it referenced "yards-above-expected" for running backs. That metric had calculated that Jacobs was way above-expected gains in 2022, but had been below-expected yardage, sometimes significantly, in not only 23 but in 20 and 21 as well.  One of the worst in the league this past season. 

That particular data suggests his bad-ness maybe wasn't all Raiders OL and QB?  (The "expectation" should presumably factor in whether a defense is crowding the box.).   

But yeah, I'm not sure who or how they calculate the "expectation".  Football "stats" are often pretty imperfect.  I would think "expected" yardage might be one of the most imprecise calculations in a game that is hard to quantify.  

Didn't Jacobs also have some injury that he played through this year, that perhaps compromised his explosiveness?  

Take it for what it's worth, but Andy Herman said he watched every snap for Jacobs this year and came away shocked how bad the Raiders run blocking was.  He posted a bunch of clips showing that he had no chance quite often this year.  It's true that Jacobs did not show up in game shape after holding out all summer.  The season before he was the best back in the NFL.  I'm looking for a bounce back from him in a big way.  Hopefully the Packers improve their line play .. hoping for reinforcements and competition from the draft.

[vegas492]

31 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Take it for what it's worth, but Andy Herman said he watched every snap for Jacobs this year and came away shocked how bad the Raiders run blocking was.  He posted a bunch of clips showing that he had no chance quite often this year.  It's true that Jacobs did not show up in game shape after holding out all summer.  The season before he was the best back in the NFL.  I'm looking for a bounce back from him in a big way.  Hopefully the Packers improve their line play .. hoping for reinforcements and competition from the draft.

I don't know if Andy Herman knows a reach block from a reach around, but(t).....

He echoes the sentiments of LA fans concerning Jacobs and their 0L last year.

[craig]

42 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Take it for what it's worth, but Andy Herman said he watched every snap for Jacobs this year and came away shocked how bad the Raiders run blocking was.  He posted a bunch of clips showing that he had no chance quite often this year.  It's true that Jacobs did not show up in game shape after holding out all summer.  The season before he was the best back in the NFL.  I'm looking for a bounce back from him in a big way.  Hopefully the Packers improve their line play .. hoping for reinforcements and competition from the draft.

Thanks for note that Andy watched every snap, and didn't see the fault on Jacobs.  And the input of Raiders fans is helpful, too, as vegas noted. 

Yeah, hoping for a big bounce-back year.  

We question Andy's acumen.  But i'm guessing that just like Andy watched every snap, so did Gute and his scouts.  I do NOT doubt their acumen.  If what they watched suggested Jacobs was washed, they don't make that deal.  Obviously he might be washed moving forward, or get injured as happens routinely in the National Injury League.  

In terms of that "expected average" rubric that ESPN cited, I'm guessing that's variably crude?  I'm guessing they probably have a down-and-distance factor? Probably some factors for "in-the-box" numbers; maybe for how many guys list as DL/LB versus S/CB?  But I kinda doubt they have a play-by-play observational factor?  Like, league average for 1st/10 8-in-box, but not whether two guys are already in the backfield by the time Jacobs gets the ball?  

Guess I'm kinda trusting that Gute has more at stake in this than anybody.  And made a thorough, informed, thoughtful, and reasonably logical decision.  

[PACKRULE]

2 hours ago, craig said:

Interesting.  Yeah, that doesn't support the view that Jacob's bad-ness was totally awful blocking.  

In a negative ESPN-article, it referenced "yards-above-expected" for running backs. That metric had calculated that Jacobs was way above-expected gains in 2022, but had been below-expected yardage, sometimes significantly, in not only 23 but in 20 and 21 as well.  One of the worst in the league this past season. 

That particular data suggests his bad-ness maybe wasn't all Raiders OL and QB?  (The "expectation" should presumably factor in whether a defense is crowding the box.).   

But yeah, I'm not sure who or how they calculate the "expectation".  Football "stats" are often pretty imperfect.  I would think "expected" yardage might be one of the most imprecise calculations in a game that is hard to quantify.  

Didn't Jacobs also have some injury that he played through this year, that perhaps compromised his explosiveness?  

Their run blocking may not have been bad but they had a nobody at QB. If you're a DC you stop the run and make the nobody beat you. I know you know that Craig likely just may not have been thinking about that at the time. I think that and the dysfunction was the issue in Vegas last year. Hard to work your *** off when the team is a mess. it kinda turned a bit of a corner with Pierce but not enough to move the needle a ton. 

[craig]

Persian, the "expected" really ought to factor in whether a defense is geared to stopping the run.  But I have no idea how that really calculates, and what the flaws in that "expectation" rubric might be.