The Hafley Defense, Conquering the 49ers, and Ty'Ron Hopper

[AlexGreen#20]

I've been pondering about this entire scenario and have finally reached some conclusions. This isn't particularly ordered, so just bear with me on this. 

There's an old saying in the NFL that "You build your football team to win your division." The Packers seem to have rejected that notion in favor of chasing down a different target. A decade and a half of losing in the playoffs has set the Packers with the predominant intention of finally exorcising the demon that is their futile playoff record against the San Francisco 49ers. 

Combatting the 49ers has been problematic for the last decade (and truthfully most of Packers history) for several reasons, but the first and most obvious one has been that the defense simply hasn't been built for it.

The Packers have shuffled through a handful of Defensive Coordinators in recent years who have built defenses to combat the modern NFL passing offense by playing a light box with 2 high Safeties. The 49ers offense was built to exploit that with heavy emphasis on the run game, and lots of misdirection to pull LBs out and away. In fairness to those Defensive Coordinators, some success has been had by turning the 2 high defense into a 1 high defense for a single week, but that's not what the players are being drafted to do, and it hasn't been enough to cover up for a Packer offense that is often stymied by a 49ers defense that remains elite year after year. 

That appears to have been acknowledged, and a new brand of defensive architect has been brought in. 

Joe Barry's 3-4, Cover-2 heavy scheme is out. Jeff Hafley's 4-3, Cover-3 heavy scheme is in. 

What the hell does that mean?

Well, the usual disclaimers still apply:

* The NFL is a nickel defense league, and the difference between a 2-4 and a 4-2 don't look that different at pre-snap. 

* Every team runs all kinds of coverage. Barry ran some single high stuff. Hafley will run some 2-deep looks. The identity comes down to the percentages. 

* The NFL is a zone coverage league. Obviously there will be man coverage played, but it isn't the base.

* The NFL is a bend but don't break league. Offenses have gotten too good and the field is too large for defenses to play like the 85 Bears. The goal is no longer to give up 0 yards. It's to keep the ball in front of you and try to get to 3rd down where your pressure packages can take off.

People expecting Hafley to turn this defense into a blitz heavy, man coverage focused defense are going to be disappointed. 

+++

So with that out of the way, let's talk about this thing. 

Hafley is predominantly a Cover-3 coach, and in that Cover-3 field he tends to run a VERY basic Cover-3. There are Cover-6 lineups at times, and there's less zone matching than I've seen from a high level DC before, but It's pretty damn simple, right out of high school.

That means on a typical play you're going to divide the deep half of the field into 1/3s, played by your High Safety (in the middle) and your Perimeter Corners (on the boundary). That zone starts typically from 12-15 yards off the ball all the way back to the back of the endzone. 

From 5 yards to 12-15 yards off the ball, you have your 4 2nd level defenders in buzz and hook zones.

The buzz zone is typically manned by your low safety and your nickel corner, though if you're playing in your base defense, one of the Buzz zones will be handled by an Outside Linebacker, typically the SAM. Those buzz zones typically start from the hash marks and go to the boundary. 

The hook zone is typically manned by your inside linebackers. They extend from the hashmark to the middle of the field (either the nose of the center or the geometric middle of the field). 

The advantages of the Cover-3 are:

1. It's simple. Not only is it simple conceptually, but everybody on the team has been running it since they were 10. Even at an NFL level, it's simple, there isn't a whole bunch of match coverage **** you're trying to memorize. In an ideal world, your ILBs aren't trying to think pre-snap "if the TE goes vertically, do I stay hook, or work up the seam?". In theory it lets you play fast. 

2. Praise the Lord! We're going to have a Safety in the box again. This will tremendously help the run defense, and it means you can get more creative with your blitz looks due to the additional body. 

The disadvantages of the Cover-3 are:

1. No more hiding your Corners. They're going to have to play vertically 1v1. 

2. You're going to need athletes at ILB. 

3. 4 Verticals. When you look at the Cover-3, there's only 3 deep players, teams will try and murder the seams. You need to have some kind of plan in place to deal with that. Typically that comes in the form of a nickel/SAM/Safety who is a good read and react guy with wheels. Play action separates men and boys. 

+++

Which brings us to the offseason. I'm actually surprised and proud at the lack of freaking out that happened. AJJ being the best Safety on the roster during the offseason was stressing me the hell out. 

The depth chart says it all. The front group is set. No issues. There isn't a single body in the front group that doesn't work as well or better in an even front. The changes come at Safety and Inside Linebacker. 

+++++Inside Linebacker+++++

De'Vondre Campbell was released in the offseason. Injuries seemed to hobble Campbell the last two years and in both instances he found himself missing a portion of the year and on a limited snap count towards the end of the season. With Quay Walker stepping into the role of 3rd down LB, his increasing injuries and salary, and decreasing production turned his contract into a pain point. Campbell's backup was Isaiah McDuffie who has been a consummate professional and an excellent Special Teams contributor in his time in Green Bay, while at the same time not being anywhere near productive enough to earn himself a regular spot in the defense. 

One full time starter was needed just to meet the minimum requirements for playing a nickel, much less to have depth at the position. To fill that role was the Packers second pick, Edgerrin Cooper, the best off ball LB in the draft and a guy who made a startling number of high impact plays for Texas A&M. Between Cooper and Quay Walker, it becomes hard to argue that the Packers do not have the most athletic Inside Linebacker pairing in the NFL. Cooper will need to show he can play, but if the goal was to be athletic inside, consider the box checked. 

But that wasn't where the acquisition ended. The most surprising pick in the Packers draft from both a position and a "reach" perspective, came a round later when they selected Ty'Ron Hopper, an Inside Linebacker from Missouri with their second 3rd round pick. This did not make people happy. Not only was it a non-premium position, it appeared to be a position that didn't have an immediate need, and it was a player who wasn't rated particularly highly. 

But, there was a method to the madness, and it starts with the 49ers. 

The 49ers averaged 2.44 WRs per play in the playoff matchup that ended the Packers season. They utilized a second TE on 15% of plays, and a FB on 41%. That's a really heavy offensive personnel set for 2023, but it isn't particularly heavy for the 49ers in general. To counter, the Packers averaged 1.56 ILBs per play, 4.38 Front line players per play, and, 5.06 DBs per play. 

If that doesn't strike you as odd, I would draw your attention to the 2.44 WRs vs 5.06 DBs per play number. The implication is that on over half of defensive plays, the Packers were playing with a light personnel grouping, trying to match a Safety with a TE. When you combine this number with Barry's propensity for playing 2 deep Safeties, it points to a scenario where the Packers were often trying to stop 21 Personnel with only 6 box defenders, one of whom was a Safety. That's not an ideal personnel match to stop the run, and Christian McCaffrey's rushing stats highlight the issue. 17 carries for 98 yards, at 5.7 yards a run let the 49ers hold steady with their run game to give Purdy enough time to eventually turn in some kind of passing production. 

In order to stop the run, the first step is to have enough bodies in the front.  That begins with not being afraid to play your base defense. For Hafley, that's a 4-3, which means you're going to need THREE linebackers who can play, before you even begin to worry about depth. Isaiah McDuffie and Eric Wilson are still on the roster, but those aren't the players you want playing significant reps outside of injury. 

But the need doesn't end there, you can't just have good Inside Linebackers in a Cover-3 4-3. You also need to have Inside Linebackers who can run. One of the predominant ways to stress a 4-3 is with 4 verticals, targeting the seams. No matter how good your Free Safety is, he can only cover one seam. Your inside players need to be smart enough to recognize this, and get that they will occasionally have to bail out of their zone and go vertical with a TE or slot receiver. That's often the Low Safety if you line him up over the TE, but at times it's going to have to be an Inside Linebacker. 

The 49ers have utilized Kittle to tremendous effectiveness as a seam player, so somebody needs to be able to play that game. The Packers now have 3 ILBs with both the straight line speed and the hip flexibility to turn and run vertically. It was a necessary add. 

+++++Safety++++

The Packers Free Agency splurge came in the form of Xavier McKinney. 

I'm sure you've heard some variation of "We don't consider them Free Safety/Strong Safety or High Safety/Low Safety. They're all Safeties and are expected to know every role."

Which, is probably technically correct, but I guarantee you McKinney is going to spend double the snaps in the box that Bullard is going to. One of the advantages of knowing you're going to spend a bunch of time with one safety in the box is it lets you plan for it and find guys who fit that skillset. McKinney is such a player. He's quite excellent at that role. 

McKinney's running mate will be Javon Bullard from the jump. Nobody else at the position has any real notable NFL experience. Anthony Johnson Jr played a shocking number of snaps last year (303) due to injuries, but it's unlikely to give him an edge over Bullard's raw ability. Rudy Ford is still available in Free Agency, which is rather odd. Obviously there are going to be growing pains  with Bullard, as there is with any young Safety, but you've now got your High and Low Safety of the future under contract for a long time.

In addition, the draft added a pair of non-premium-pick Safeties in Evan Williams and Kitan Oladapo. At this point they're just bodies. I don't believe there's really a plan for them other than letting them be depth and ST guys, if they grow into something in the future, that's excellent, but it isn't expected. Williams may have the skills to function in coverage as a 3rd safety, but a lack of high end physical skills across the board and rather poor tackling will likely prevent him from ever being a full time starter. Kitan Oladapo can hit, but doesn't offer a ton in coverage. 

[Mazrimiv]

Glad to see AG20 making these types of posts again.  They are more interesting to read than anything Schneidman at The Athletic will ever puke out.

[OneTwoSixFive]

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

In addition, the draft added a pair of non-premium-pick Safeties in Evan Williams and Kitan Oladapo. At this point they're just bodies. I don't believe there's really a plan for them other than letting them be depth and ST guys, if they grow into something in the future, that's excellent, but it isn't expected.

I have been thinking recently that Gute very often doesn't have a fixed idea of where he expects a drafted player to play or what role he has. His view is more a 30,000 ft view where he listens to what the coaches want - and then drafts athletic guys he thinks the coaches can use. It is the coaches that have the power to define the roles of players more than the GM and probably the head coach and coordinators that tell the GM some of the specifics of what they want. Then it is down to Gute's staff  with himself as final arbiter, to choose someone the coaches can use and balance roster acquisition and management over the next year or three.

So, did Gute draft Morgan to be the OT of the future, well, probably his thinking is not that specific, he got a guy who could be an OT, but could also very likely play guard. Would Gute PREFER Morgan becomes a starting tackle, I'm virtually certain that's a 'yes', but if he starts somewhere on the line Gute has done his job, creating competition,  getting a starter and upgrading the line. How much the Packers are committed to making Morgan a LT depends on how the coaches see things over time and how THEY view Morgan once they have had some time to evaluate him.

The same applies to Williams and Olapado. Gute gets several guys he thinks can help at Safety. They are not all the same type, though all are fairly athletic. then he lets the coaches choose how to make the best use of each player to fit the different safety roles and special teams. Bullard is a more targeted pick as he was arguably the consensus no.1 safety at draft time, and therefore a very talented and flexible chess piece that can be used in multiple ways, hopefully able to flip-flop with McKinney in who does what.

The TL:DR of all this is that I'm suggesting Gute takes more of a generalist approach to drafting and the coaches are (necessarily) more specific in their approach.

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

People expecting Hafley to turn this defense into a blitz heavy, man coverage focused defense are going to be disappointed. 

I must admit I was hoping the defense at least went some way towards this, not so much the blitzing (Barry blitzed a fair bit, sometimes), but more press man, more dictating to the enemies offense.

Edited May 6 by OneTwoSixFive

[AlexGreen#20]

10 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

I have been thinking recently that Gute very often doesn't have a fixed idea of where he expects a drafted player to play or what role he has. His view is more a 30,000 ft view where he listens to what the coaches want - and then drafts athletic guys he thinks the coaches can use. It is the coaches that have the power to define the roles of players more than the GM and probably the head coach and coordinators that tell the GM some of the specifics of what they want. Then it is down to Gute's staff  with himself as final arbiter, to choose someone the coaches can use and balance roster acquisition.

So, did Gute draft Morgan to be the OT of the future, well, probably his thinking is not that specific, he got a guy who could be an OT, but could also very likely play guard. Would Gute PREFER Morgan becomes a starting tackle, I'm virtually certain that's a 'yes', but if he starts somewhere on the line Gute has done his job, creating competition,  getting a starter and upgrading the line. How much the Packers are committed to making Morgan a LT depends on how the coaches see things over time and how THEY view Morgan once they have had some time to evaluate him.

The same applies to Williams and Olapado. Gute gets several guys he thinks can help at Safety. They are not all the same type, though all are fairly athletic. then he lets the coaches choose how to make the best use of each player to fit the different safety roles and special teams. Bullard is a more targeted pick as he was arguably the consensus no.1 safety at draft time, and therefore a very talented and flexible chess piece that can be used in multiple ways, hopefully able to flip-flop with McKinney in who does what.

The TL:DR of all this is that I'm suggesting Gute takes more of a generalist approach to drafting and the coaches are (necessarily) more specific in their approach.

I must admit I was hoping the defense at least went some way towards this, not so much the blitzing (Barry blitzed a fair bit, sometimes), but more press man, more dictating to the enemies offense.

Coaches are super active in scouting players.

Once the season ends and they wrap up their self scout, most of the attention turns to college scouting. One of the reasons you tend to have huge swings in projections after the super bowl is that the coaches have gotten involved in the process. 

LaFleur, Stenovich, Butkus, and Gordon all looked at Morgan long before the draft and concluded he was LT material. 

All of the coaches, including the ST guys, weighed in on Williams and Oladapo.

NFL GMs don't just drop a group of players onto the laps of coaches and say "Surprise, check out who I think you guys wanted."

Obviously in some organizations coaches have more power than others, but your theory is pretty much nonsense. 

[VegasDan]

Thanks for the read.

 

I feel smarter.

[Lodestar]

It sucks that we wasted a 3rd round pick on you, but you're starting to redeem yourself with this high-quality content

[Packerraymond]

It's great content, the ironic thing about the premise of the post is that Joe Barry routinely shut down the Shanny tree. He just couldn't shut down bad offenses who were willing to methodically work the ball down field. I actually have no complaints about Joe Barry's playoff defense.

[Mdpackfan22]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

It's great content, the ironic thing about the premise of the post is that Joe Barry routinely shut down the Shanny tree. He just couldn't shut down bad offenses who were willing to methodically work the ball down field. I actually have no complaints about Joe Barry's playoff defense.

The inverse of Dom Capers

Great vs good offenses, horrendous vs  bad offenses 

Good in the playoffs, horrible in the regular season

 

[Toddfather]

Awesome write up. I love when you make these posts. Thanks! 

[OneTwoSixFive]

2 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Coaches are super active in scouting players.

Once the season ends and they wrap up their self scout, most of the attention turns to college scouting. One of the reasons you tend to have huge swings in projections after the super bowl is that the coaches have gotten involved in the process. 

LaFleur, Stenovich, Butkus, and Gordon all looked at Morgan long before the draft and concluded he was LT material. 

All of the coaches, including the ST guys, weighed in on Williams and Oladapo.

NFL GMs don't just drop a group of players onto the laps of coaches and say "Surprise, check out who I think you guys wanted."

Obviously in some organizations coaches have more power than others, but your theory is pretty much nonsense. 

Until your last two sentences I thought you were agreeing with me, which is that coaches/coordinators get a fairly detailed say in what they want and talk to the GM regularly about it. Then it is down to the GM to sift through players with the traits the coaches want, do much of the legwork in gathering detail and grinding tape, and ultimately choosing a specific player that fits both the coaches and their own criteria, as far as possible - and is also value at the pick they are taken. If there were not regular talks between GM and coaches about team needs, it would be a rather poorly run organisation.

A GM should ultimately choose the players, but sometimes does not, due to meddlesome owners and coaches with too much power................and I am wandering off-topic here.

[packfanfb]

5 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

It's great content, the ironic thing about the premise of the post is that Joe Barry routinely shut down the Shanny tree. He just couldn't shut down bad offenses who were willing to methodically work the ball down field. I actually have no complaints about Joe Barry's playoff defense.

Over a broad view, yea, the defense played well enough to probably win both of the SF games from 2021 and 2023. 2021 was a complete disaster on offense and ST and 2023 we just didn't do enough with our offensive opportunities early on and then the drive that ended with the Carlson miss.

Still, what both games had in common though was that when SF got the ball and absolutely needed a score late the 4th, they got it both times. Sometimes as a defense in the playoffs, playing well for 55 minutes isn't good enough. The way Barry approached that last drive against Purdy and Co. was day and night different than the way Spags and KC approached similar situations against SF late in the SB. 

[incognito_man]

8 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

but I guarantee you McKinney is going to spend double the snaps in the box that Bullard is going to

I thought Bullard played in the box a lot? And that McKinney played single high a lot?

[Refugee]

6 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

It's great content, the ironic thing about the premise of the post is that Joe Barry routinely shut down the Shanny tree. He just couldn't shut down bad offenses who were willing to methodically work the ball down field. I actually have no complaints about Joe Barry's playoff defense.

It was no secret Barry, in spite of his shortcomings, was brought it based on some of his success playing the 9ers and other Shanny tree offenses with the LAR. Indeed he showed he had some of the chops to get it done when we went up against those schemes.

I’m still pretty happy we let him go, Haf is an intense focused guy from his interview. I’m hoping he shows a real ability to evolve and adjust as the League makes its inevitable changes. This is a great breakdown of his core scheme. I think he’s hoping to put some wrinkles on it and hopefully successfully on an opponent by opponent basis. I’ll be an optimist until shown any reason to believe otherwise.  

[Packerraymond]

59 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I thought Bullard played in the box a lot? And that McKinney played single high a lot?

Yeah I would take him up on that bet any day. X is our deep safety.

[Eternal]

Spectacular write up! I appreciate reading your content like always.