WK2 GDT: PIT @ DEN

[Broncofan]

Not much to say that hasn't been covered on our end.

For PIT, they come off a huge W on the road at ATL, but with major Q's on the O as well.   Funny how a W can change the tone and mood, though.

PIT's O

Who plays QB? - Russ won the job in the preseason, but then his calf issue let Justin Fields play WK1.  And it certainly wasn't pretty from the pass game perspective - it was the George Pickens show, who went 6/85, while the team had 160+ yards total, and the other WR's had 8 yards (8!).    Fields made a big diff with his legs, running it 14x, though.    So who does PIT go with this week?   You know Russ is dying to play against us, and he was supposed to be the starter.   TBH, I would welcome Russ in a big way - because we know him that well.   

PIT run game vs. our run D - I know the boxscore looks bad, but it's misleading - SEA's O just wore our D down.   We absolutely stymied their run game in the 1H.   This is a big reason why I prefer we don't face Fields.   Fields presents a running threat we're not well equipped to deal with.   

Our pass rush vs. their OL - Broderick Jones is a run game monster.   PIT's not that different from us - they are at their best with a lead, and leaning on the run game.   If we can keep it close, or even take a lead, it helps Browning / Cooper / Bonnito & co. so much

Pickens vs. PS2 - I think we'd give Pickens shadow coverage, and let the chips fall where they may.    Pickens abused AJ Terrell in shadow coverage yesterday, but I think we'd live and die with PS2 vs. Pickens    

Our RB/TE coverage - Pat Friermuth and Najee Harris / Jaylen Warren are all capable receivers, Friermuth is probably their 2nd target (at least until Roman Wilson shows if he's ready to contribute as a rookie, but had a HAS and just returned to practice - was inactive WK1).    We definitely had our vulnerabilities vs. RB in WK1, can we neutralize them?

 

 

PIT D

Can we establish the run?   PIT is always tough against the run when Cam Heyward is healthy, and that's the case.   So pretty tall order.

Unpredictability - If TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith know we're passing, it's going to be a rough time.    So can we mix it up more?   Payton was WAY too run-heavy on first down.  I know we have to run the ball to get some respect, but we can't wait to put Nix in throwing situations where the D knows it's coming. 

Who steps up in the receiving game?  PIT's secondary is much improved, with Donte Jackson joining Joey Porter as the starting CB duo.   We can't have Sutton go 3 catches on 12 targets - which means we need a 2nd weapon.    Mims?   Upgrade the TE's with dressing Lucas Krull or Donald Parham?    I don't really favor TE as the target position this week because S Minkah Fitzpatrick may be their best defender and ball hawk.    Given Porter & Jackson are small corners, if there's a game where the WR's could win the 50-50, post-up / block-out game, this could be it.   

 

The usual X factors - TO's and ST's, often decide these games.   If we face Russ, I like our chances a lot better.   Either way, we need the O to move the ball with some regularity, we can't expect the D to hold up if they're on the field for 35+ mins each week (SEA was on the field for 18+ mins of the 2H last week, so the entire game stats are very misleading IIRC can't count on 2 safeties and a TO each half).

 

In a TO-neutral game, I'd have to say PIT wins this like 19-16.    It would also likely get really ugly to watch.   There may be no other fans other than DEN & PIT fans watching this one.

Edited September 10 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

 

Goes without saying if we don't have Bolles that's a massive problem with TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith on the other side.

[jsthomp2007]

Broncos by 7...last minute throw in the back of the endzone by Hydro to Upgrade in the in back to of the endzone!  Booya

[AnAngryAmerican]

Very good analysis. 

TJ Watt, like his brother, almost always plays on the strong (left) aide of the defense, opposite the RT, i.e., the Derek Wolfe position. Mike McGlinchy better bring his a-game and Sean better find ways to get Bo away from him. 

Emotion will play a part in this game, if Russ starts, and we know Russ isn’t exactly the mentally strongest and playing in a “revenge” game will lead to more of hero ball type plays that Russ has proven to be …. spotty.

What concerns me, beyond what we saw from our team in Seattle, is that the last few years Mike Tomlin’s teams have found ways to win a lot of games very ugly. We’ve lost a lot of games ugly over the same time period.

I’m hoping we can make some strides as it’s our best chance to get a win before back to back 11am games on the East Coast, but I’m not terribly confident. We do need a win as starting 0-4 is going to really create a toxic media/fan environment around the whole operation, no matter how unjustified. 

I’ll try to keep being positive and say we find a way to win ugly. Bolles appears to be fine so that’s good news and I think being at home will help. 

Broncos 19, Steelers 16

[The Helicopter]

Would we say the Steelers are a better team at this point than the Seahawks? It seems like a worse matchup...the only thing going for us is this is a home game...but there probably won't be a lot to cheer about...so it'll be quiet in the stands. I think this one is gonna be a bit more ugly - unless the TO game goes our way heavily. 

[jsthomp2007]

1 hour ago, The Helicopter said:

Would we say the Steelers are a better team at this point than the Seahawks? It seems like a worse matchup...the only thing going for us is this is a home game...but there probably won't be a lot to cheer about...so it'll be quiet in the stands. I think this one is gonna be a bit more ugly - unless the TO game goes our way heavily. 

I think Seattle is better than Pittsburgh.  

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, The Helicopter said:

Would we say the Steelers are a better team at this point than the Seahawks? It seems like a worse matchup...the only thing going for us is this is a home game...but there probably won't be a lot to cheer about...so it'll be quiet in the stands. I think this one is gonna be a bit more ugly - unless the TO game goes our way heavily. 

The PIT D is better than SEA's, esp with their ILB play, and there's no one like TJ Watt.  

The PIT O is significantly more predictable and one-dimensional than SEA's.   The pass game is basically stop Pickens (and don't let the TE/RB beat you in our case).    Their run game is on par with SEA's.   The PIT OL is probably in far better shape than SEA's was. 

PIT is apparently going with Fields.....man, that sucks.   Wilson is a guy we knew so well.   That may in fact be part of the thinking with HC Tomlin.

 

Edited September 10 by Broncofan

[The Helicopter]

I'm thinking we get a good butt kicking this round. The score may not show it, but we're gonna feel it.

[broncosfan_101]

Estime to the IR. The ankle injury is a phantom, Sean’s just pissed about the hurdle on his first career touch. Haha

[Dbrog24]

1 hour ago, broncosfan_101 said:

Estime to the IR. The ankle injury is a phantom, Sean’s just pissed about the hurdle on his first career touch. Haha

Well damn there goes one opportunity for a big play creator...granted that big play might be another fumble

[thebestever6]

I got a big feeling Dulcich or Mims step up this week.

[broncos67]

This won't be that close. I don't really see how we win this, to be honest. I'd love to be wrong. PIT's D is stellar, Bolles is hobbled. PIT has a nasty D. Fields may give us trouble simply with his ability to run. I would expect some improvement from Nix, but there's also going to be some home game jitters I expect.

I think we lose by a TD. Something like 20-13 or 23-16.

[lomaxgrUK]

As ever for a team without a top calibre QB against another team without a top calibre QB, the game simply comes down to:

a) stopping the run on Defense
b) being able to run the ball on Offense
c) winning the turnover battle

Given the game wreckers the Steelers have on Defense, my biggest fear is us not staying on the field on Offense, then getting mauled by the Steelers big OL which then opens up Play Action and room behind our LBs for Fields to make easy throws.

It would make such a huge difference if Sean can (finally) get in his bag early on to get us some big plays and points. Force the Steelers to play from behind and not be able to lean on the Run game.

The worst thing about Steelers at home is how many fans they get in the stadium. It's impressive, but incredibly frustrating. 

[lomaxgrUK]

13 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

I got a big feeling Dulcich or Mims step up this week.

I flew through the Coaches film because of the amount of quality content out there, thus I don't need to add anything, but Dulcich was so poor last week.

No juice on his routes and his run blocking / screen blocking is just so so so bad. 

I'm almost out of faith that Dulcich is going to ever contribute for us.

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I flew through the Coaches film because of the amount of quality content out there, thus I don't need to add anything, but Dulcich was so poor last week.

No juice on his routes and his run blocking / screen blocking is just so so so bad. 

I'm almost out of faith that Dulcich is going to ever contribute for us.

He didn't have elite athleticism...so losing any is a huge problem.  2+ years of repeated different injuries may have just done it.

I will say it again, I hope Payton gets over his Trautman crush, and general affinity for Dulcich.  We should see what we have in Krull this year.  I suspect not enough, but this is the year to find out.   It doesn't have to be this week, but by October if Dulcich is toast, then move on.   

And since he's a free lottery ticket, we should absolutely consider activating Donald Parham 3x from the PS and then decide if he's worth a 53-man spot.  He offers something in terms of mismatch ability that no one else on our TE room can.  And especially in the RZ, where's he's built a nice record of specialist success.