With the 5th pick in the NFL draft the Broncos select....

[Broncofan]

18 minutes ago, germ-x said:

A friend texted me and said Albert Breer is reporting that Denver either has or is trying to move up with the Giants to get a QB.  

I don’t do social media so I have no idea if Breer is credible.

Breer is very credible.  He's not Rapsheet or Schefter-level but he's a legit national reporter.  Wow if true.

P.S. I don't see anything new - so this could have been old news.   Given the price NYJ had pay for 1.3, Elway & co. might have asked about 1.2, then backed out.   If there's a new tweet today I don't see it.

[paul-mac]

Breer is usually good but I haven't seen this report from him anywhere, could be a false flag. Given that unlike the Jets we don't have two second round picks we'd probably be looking at giving up our 1st and 2nd rounders both this year and next, and maybe even more than that given there could be a bidding war. I think the Bills are far more likely to trade up given their amount of ammo. Ultimately I think the choice is going to come down to Baker Mayfield, non-QB or trade down.

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, paul-mac said:

Breer is usually good but I haven't seen this report from him anywhere, could be a false flag. Given that unlike the Jets we don't have two second round picks we'd probably be looking at giving up our 1st and 2nd rounders both this year and next, and maybe even more than that given there could be a bidding war. I think the Bills are far more likely to trade up given their amount of ammo. Ultimately I think the choice is going to come down to Baker Mayfield, non-QB or trade down.

I would also mention @germ-x that there are LOT of false Twitter accounts.   So it might be that too.   I don't see anything at all in his real account.  I think it's a false alarm.

[paul-mac]

So from what I'm hearing, I think the Browns are taking Sam Darnold and the Jets board reads 1. Darnold, 2. Allen, 3. Rosen. Buffalo would like to trade up to 2, but if the Giants stay there and take a QB, Rosen is their preference. If they do not take a QB they're likely to take Nelson. Browns at 4 are targeting Denzel Ward but could also trade down with a QB needy team.

 

Three possible scenarios:

1. Darnold

2. Allen (Bills)

3. Rosen

4. Ward

 

1. Darnold

2. Rosen

3. Allen

4. Ward

up 

1. Darnold

2. Nelson

3. Allen

4. Ward

 

I think it all depends on how we feel about Baker Mayfield and potentially Rosen if he's there as well. Personally I want a QB pick but if Barkley is there at 5 we have to look long and hard. I guess a dream scenario for me would be to get Barkley at 5 then trade up into the late 1st for Lamar Jackson, giving up 37 and some other picks. Having a decent veteran in Keenum as a locker room presence and potential bridge QB as well as an elite RB would be the best possible situation for Jackson to succeed. We could almost run a form of the Tebow offense where Willis McGahee thrived, although our QB would have a far better passing acumen than Tebow.

[germ-x]

3 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

So from what I'm hearing, I think the Browns are taking Sam Darnold and the Jets board reads 1. Darnold, 2. Allen, 3. Rosen. Buffalo would like to trade up to 2, but if the Giants stay there and take a QB, Rosen is their preference. If they do not take a QB they're likely to take Nelson. Browns at 4 are targeting Denzel Ward but could also trade down with a QB needy team.

 

Three possible scenarios:

1. Darnold

2. Allen (Bills)

3. Rosen

4. Ward

 

1. Darnold

2. Rosen

3. Allen

4. Ward

up 

1. Darnold

2. Nelson

3. Allen

4. Ward

 

I think it all depends on how we feel about Baker Mayfield and potentially Rosen if he's there as well. Personally I want a QB pick but if Barkley is there at 5 we have to look long and hard. I guess a dream scenario for me would be to get Barkley at 5 then trade up into the late 1st for Lamar Jackson, giving up 37 and some other picks. Having a decent veteran in Keenum as a locker room presence and potential bridge QB as well as an elite RB would be the best possible situation for Jackson to succeed. We could almost run a form of the Tebow offense where Willis McGahee thrived, although our QB would have a far better passing acumen than Tebow.

I don’t think Denver takes a QB.  But I’d be so pissed if Mayfield is QB left on the board and Denver takes him.  The Jets have blown picks like crazy, my hope is they take Mayfield at #3 or someone in the top 3 takes him and gets him off the board so there is no chance Denver can make that mistake.

[paul-mac]

1 minute ago, germ-x said:

I don’t think Denver takes a QB.  But I’d be so pissed if Mayfield is QB left on the board and Denver takes him.  The Jets have blown picks like crazy, my hope is they take Mayfield at #3 or someone in the top 3 takes him and gets him off the board so there is no chance Denver can make that mistake.

 

Why don't you like him? I haven't gotten around to watching tape yet, but hope to do so in the near future, but my friends and some internet guys I trust were high on his tape. Possibly you don't like him due to the Manziel comparisons but I thought they'd been disproven already?

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

So from what I'm hearing, I think the Browns are taking Sam Darnold and the Jets board reads 1. Darnold, 2. Allen, 3. Rosen. Buffalo would like to trade up to 2, but if the Giants stay there and take a QB, Rosen is their preference. If they do not take a QB they're likely to take Nelson. Browns at 4 are targeting Denzel Ward but could also trade down with a QB needy team.

 

Three possible scenarios:

1. Darnold

2. Allen (Bills)

3. Rosen

4. Ward

 

1. Darnold

2. Rosen

3. Allen

4. Ward

up 

1. Darnold

2. Nelson

3. Allen

4. Ward

 

I think it all depends on how we feel about Baker Mayfield and potentially Rosen if he's there as well. Personally I want a QB pick but if Barkley is there at 5 we have to look long and hard. I guess a dream scenario for me would be to get Barkley at 5 then trade up into the late 1st for Lamar Jackson, giving up 37 and some other picks. Having a decent veteran in Keenum as a locker room presence and potential bridge QB as well as an elite RB would be the best possible situation for Jackson to succeed. We could almost run a form of the Tebow offense where Willis McGahee thrived, although our QB would have a far better passing acumen than Tebow.

I don't see any scenario where we stay at 1.5 where we get Lamar Jackson.   I think it's becoming very clear that QB is going to go early this draft - not just because of the current class' current evaluation - but the strong sentiment that there are likely at best 1-2 guys next year who would even get Jackson's same grade.    

If Mayfield gets a top 12 floor, I don't see Jackson making it past ARI at 1.15 to be honest.   ARI has Sam Bradford signed for 1 year, the 2nd year is not guaranteed.   We just don't have the ammo to move up from 2.39 to get ahead of ARI.   Nor should we.  

 

[germ-x]

1 minute ago, paul-mac said:

 

Why don't you like him? I haven't gotten around to watching tape yet, but hope to do so in the near future, but my friends and some internet guys I trust were high on his tape. Possibly you don't like him due to the Manziel comparisons but I thought they'd been disproven already?

Nothing to do with Manziel.  He’s not Manziel, at least personality wise.

Just an average talent across the board.  Average size, average arm, average athlete.  Played in a system that constantly had players wide open.  Looks to the sideline before snaps where they’re telling him what to do with the ball, had the best pass blocking OL in college football over the last 2 years.  I’m not saying he doesn’t have grit, but he needs a whole hell of a lot to be right for him to be successful.

[paul-mac]

Just now, Broncofan said:

I don't see any scenario where we stay at 1.5 where we get Lamar Jackson.   I think it's becoming very clear that QB is going to go early this draft - not just because of the current class' current evaluation - but the strong sentiment that there are likely at best 1-2 guys next year who would even get Jackson's same grade.    

If Mayfield gets a top 12 floor, I don't see Jackson making it past ARI at 1.15 to be honest.   ARI has Sam Bradford signed for 1 year, the 2nd year is not guaranteed.   We just don't have the ammo to move up from 2.39 to get ahead of ARI.   Nor should we.  

 

 

My gut feeling is that if Mayfield is on the board at 5 then the Broncos will probably take him or trade with a team that will take him. The Dolphins are rumored to love him so there's a potential trade partner although there's some bad blood between Elway and Adam Gase. Don't be surprised if Lamar Jackson falls further than you think. He's a project QB and although he compares to Deshaun Watson coming out, he's far more raw and if you take him, you really either need to sit him for a year or two and learn behind an established veteran, or start him but completely revamp your offense around his skill set and slowly mould him into a more NFL prototypical player, and accept the teething problems that will happen along the way.

 

I see two possibilities for Jackson, either whichever top-10 QB needy team misses out will trade up for him, or a playoff calibre team with an ageing QB takes him to sit and learn. My totally crazy wildcard for him is the Patriots at 31, although they would probably rather trade out.

[Broncofan]

12 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

 

My gut feeling is that if Mayfield is on the board at 5 then the Broncos will probably take him or trade with a team that will take him. The Dolphins are rumored to love him so there's a potential trade partner although there's some bad blood between Elway and Adam Gase. Don't be surprised if Lamar Jackson falls further than you think. He's a project QB and although he compares to Deshaun Watson coming out, he's far more raw and if you take him, you really either need to sit him for a year or two and learn behind an established veteran, or start him but completely revamp your offense around his skill set and slowly mould him into a more NFL prototypical player, and accept the teething problems that will happen along the way.

 

I see two possibilities for Jackson, either whichever top-10 QB needy team misses out will trade up for him, or a playoff calibre team with an ageing QB takes him to sit and learn. My totally crazy wildcard for him is the Patriots at 31, although they would probably rather trade out.

Agree with your gut feeling most years - but 2 things make this year different IMO than most.   First, ARI is a key team in the equation.    They literally have no future QB (Glennon isn't it lol).   Bradford is purely a 1-year rental in their best case scenario.  They already have David Johnson at RB, there's no WR certainly worth taking at 1.15.   OL always could use help, but QB is their crying need.  And we know how teams react when QB is their big need (T is always a consideration).  Keep in mind they were the team that looked to be taking Mahomes or Watson last year...until HOU & KC both jumped right in front of them.   I think if anyone from the back end of Rd 1 wants Jackson, they'll have to move in front of ARI to get him.  Or ARI gets him at 1.15.  That's assuming Mayfield goes top 10, but I think more & more that's a lock, given how events are unfolding.

FWIW, I think your analysis is spot-on on Jackson.  And most years, that would put him at end of Rd 1 / start of Rd 2.   But the second difference this year?  Next year's  QB draft class has a huge influence here.  2019's class is pretty....ugly.   Remember, going into 2018, Darnold/Rosen were already known as top-of-the-draft guys, and Allen was being talked about as a possible guy to contend (but rightfully seen as uber-raw), and Jackson/Rudolph were being mentioned as late Rd1 sleepers (Mayfield's size and O concerns left him more under the radar).   Next year?  Man, it's rough.  Drew Lock gets the most love, but after that...it's nowhere near the same kind of enthusiasm.  Of course 1-2 more guys will emerge (they always do), but next year's class looks pretty bare at the top.  And that's driving a lot of teams to think "better get my 2019 QBOTF now".    I think that's driving the upsell on the QB class.   It wouldn't shock me if Mason Rudolph went to NE or JAX Rd1 (even though most years's he's more of Day 2 guy), and guys like Mike Davis & Kyle Lauletta seem locks for Day 2, where in the past, they'd be intriguing Day 3 guys. 

 

[thebestever6]

I just don't get why denver can't build a great team while picking a qb at 5.

[broncos67]

11 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

I just don't get why denver can't build a great team while picking a qb at 5.

At 5, I would agree, they can still build a contender, I am more skeptical they can do so picking at 2 and trading a boatload of picks to do so.

[broncos67]

12 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Breer is very credible.  He's not Rapsheet or Schefter-level but he's a legit national reporter.  Wow if true.

P.S. I don't see anything new - so this could have been old news.   Given the price NYJ had pay for 1.3, Elway & co. might have asked about 1.2, then backed out.   If there's a new tweet today I don't see it.

I don't doubt Denver inquired what the price is, but I did see this story and it was very non-descript about when this conversation took place. Denver would have to give an absurd amount of draft capital to move to 2. The Jets gave up a lot to move 3 spots, but considering what Buffalo could offer comparatively, that could be a very bad situation for us. I would actually prefer Mayfield at 5 over a trade up to 2 and taking whomever it may be. We would be gutting ourselves of picks and frankly I can't see Elway doing that. I could be wrong, but to compete with Buffalo, we'd have to give up our first + second this year and next year, and maybe more. I don't think that's in any way worth it for someone who won't play Year 1. 

If Denver stays put at 5, I remain increasingly confident Saquon Barkley will be available. I truly do not believe Cleveland is taking a RB and will instead go after defense. NYG are the wild card. They could take Barkley, they could take Nelson, or they could take a QB. I'm not sure what Gettleman will do since he seems to find a premium in each position. We know the Jets are taking QB. I believe we could still see 4 QBs in the Top 4 picks. Buffalo could easily trade up to 2 or 4 depending on how the board falls. Miami and Arizona are contenders to trade up as well. 

[Broncofan]

16 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

I don't doubt Denver inquired what the price is, but I did see this story and it was very non-descript about when this conversation took place. Denver would have to give an absurd amount of draft capital to move to 2. The Jets gave up a lot to move 3 spots, but considering what Buffalo could offer comparatively, that could be a very bad situation for us. I would actually prefer Mayfield at 5 over a trade up to 2 and taking whomever it may be. We would be gutting ourselves of picks and frankly I can't see Elway doing that. I could be wrong, but to compete with Buffalo, we'd have to give up our first + second this year and next year, and maybe more. I don't think that's in any way worth it for someone who won't play Year 1. 

If Denver stays put at 5, I remain increasingly confident Saquon Barkley will be available. I truly do not believe Cleveland is taking a RB and will instead go after defense. NYG are the wild card. They could take Barkley, they could take Nelson, or they could take a QB. I'm not sure what Gettleman will do since he seems to find a premium in each position. We know the Jets are taking QB. I believe we could still see 4 QBs in the Top 4 picks. Buffalo could easily trade up to 2 or 4 depending on how the board falls. Miami and Arizona are contenders to trade up as well. 

CLE signing Carlos Hyde makes them passing on Barkley very plausible.  You do not spend a 1.1 or even a 1.4 pick - and then timeshare that guy with Hyde and Duke Johnson (an excellent pass-catching back in his own right).  Johnson only had 1 year left in his cheap rookie deal, so I figured either they'd let him walk and let him be Barkley's caddie, or they would trade him to a team cheaply.  But with Hyde signed, they are devaluing the return Barkley gives them.   That telegraphs their move IMO (unless Hyde is some Machiavellian way to throw teams off their wish to get him at 1.4...which would be really, really, really a stretch in devious intentions lol).

I do think NYG is going to have get an insane offer to move off 1.2 from BUF.  They either get their QB or Barkley at 1.2.   The PR fallout in NY will be insane if they go to 1.12 and 1.22 and get good (but not great) players, and either guy taken at 1.2 is a bonafide star.    On the other hand, I could see CLE trade with BUF for 1.12 / 1.22 and more.   Certainly under Sashi Brown, that would have been in play.   GM Dorsey is harder to read on how he values picks, however.   I do think the 1.4 slot will be enough to get a deal done with BUF - it's more if NYG is willing to move down.  As you said, they now control the draft outcome, we know CLE is going QB 1.1 and NYJ is going QB 1.3, and CLE is likely not committed one way or the other at 1.4 (stay or move down if BUF offers them the moon).

BUF is moving up IMO - it's just a question of whether it's to 1.2 or 1.4.  They've committed to this so far, they're not going to stop.  

 

[AnAngryAmerican]

14 hours ago, paul-mac said:

My gut feeling is that if Mayfield is on the board at 5 then the Broncos will probably take him or trade with a team that will take him.

I agree with you on potentially trading, be it with Arizona, Buffalo, Miami, whomever. But I don't see this staff taking Mayfield. I've said it many, many times now but Elway, Kubiak, Musgrave, Sullivan are a brain trust that is going to go for more conventional, prototypical QBs. Someone (I forget who) the other day said that the Keenum signing is a hint that Elway is scared of whiffing on another QB prospect and I think that has some merit. For the reasons @germ-x outlined about Mayfield, I would be beyond shocked to see us go that way. I think it's less likely we take a QB at No. 5 but if we do I think it would be one of Rosen, Allen or Darnold.