With the 5th pick in the NFL draft the Broncos select....

[DiehardBronxFan]

20 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I don’t disagree.  But as you said.  A franchise QB makes it easier.  If Denver passes up that chance to roll with Keenum and to continue the search for one it’s a colossal mistake.  Look forward to another 15 years of mediocrity with a few glimmers of hope like the season Denver made it to the AFCCG with Plummer.

Elway is scared, that’s my opinion on it.  It was far easier and far more fan appealing to pick up a guy like Keenum.  After failing with Osweiler and Lynch blowing the #5 pick on a QB would have sent fans into even more of riot.  The safe play was Keenum and sell fans on contending.  Starting a rookie with the 5th pick is admitting to a rebuild, which uneducated fans don’t understand in Bronco Country.

 

We’ll see, but I think ElwaY is just de-risking the situation. Unless he is committed to giving up a lot of picks to move up, he can’t even be guaranteed of any of the top 4.  It is very possible, if not probable, that 3 QB’s go ahead of Denver.  Many on this forum would hang Elway from the rafters and burn their #7 jerseys (and more importantly, the Defense would pack it in before OTA,s even opened) if a) he had not acquired a truly competent starting QB in FA and then B) been forced onto taking, say Josh Allen at 5 because he was the only QB Left and we had no other options.

 

[AKRNA]

50 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I don’t disagree.  But as you said.  A franchise QB makes it easier.  If Denver passes up that chance to roll with Keenum and to continue the search for one it’s a colossal mistake.  Look forward to another 15 years of mediocrity with a few glimmers of hope like the season Denver made it to the AFCCG with Plummer.

Elway is scared, that’s my opinion on it.  It was far easier and far more fan appealing to pick up a guy like Keenum.  After failing with Osweiler and Lynch blowing the #5 pick on a QB would have sent fans into even more of riot.  The safe play was Keenum and sell fans on contending.  Starting a rookie with the 5th pick is admitting to a rebuild, which uneducated fans don’t understand in Bronco Country.

 

I think the "franchise QB" is almost a thing of the past. The huge salaries being paid at that position makes it quite difficult to re-sign a QB without weakening the team financially. It's a dilemma. So far though, not one team has won a SB after their QB signed a huge 2nd contract. The Seahawks are a prime example.

I agree Elway was a bit scared. Rollin' the dice on a rookie QB when you have so many other issues gets hard to defend when you've just signed a journeyman NFL QB to a two year deal with lots of dead money in each.

Also, I've read a few things that suggest his teammates are pretty glad he's in Denver. You're right about the rebuild if we start a #5 pick at QB. Now that would be a tough sell in that locker room.

 

 

 

[Broncofan]

Jets made their move from 1.6 to 1.3.  That cost them the 2.37, 2.49 and 2019 2nd round pick.   Well above book value. Which was expected given the demand for BUF/NYJ/MIA?/ARI all looking for QBOTF.   

We at least can project QB going 1.1 CLE and in all likelihood 1.3 NYJ (McCown and Bridgewater only signed to 1 year deals weird they signed both lol but with 1-year bridges they aren’t moving up like that for a nonQB position when they could have conceivably gotten them at 1.3).  CLE signing Hyde means QB 1.1.  Barkley either goes 1.2 NYG or 1.4 CLE.  If CLE trades out of 1.4 to BUF (or NYG does) though then Barkley to the remaining NYG/CLE spot is the only scenario that fits.  It’s possible Barkley does fall to 1.5.  Crazy.  

[germ-x]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

Jets made their move from 1.6 to 1.3.  That cost them the 2.37, 2.49 and 2019 2nd round pick.   Well above book value.   

We at least can project QB going 1.1 CLE and in all likelihood 1.3 NYJ (McCown and Bridgewater only signed to 1 year deals weird they signed both lol but with 1-year bridges they aren’t moving up like that for a nonQB position when they could have conceivably gotten them at 1.3).  

With me not thinking Denver will go QB at #5, I love this move for Denver.

Good chance Bradley Chubb is available at #5 now.  Chubb’s my favorite player in this draft I’d be stoked if he becomes a Bronco.  I didn’t think there was anyway he’d make it past Indianapolis at #3.  

[DiehardBronxFan]

8 minutes ago, germ-x said:

With me not thinking Denver will go QB at #5, I love this move for Denver.

Good chance Bradley Chubb is available at #5 now.  Chubb’s my favorite player in this draft I’d be stoked if he becomes a Bronco.  I didn’t think there was anyway he’d make it past Indianapolis at #3.  

It’s that time of year when QB FEVER hits hard.  Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Buffalo move next with a trade up with either the Giants or, more likely, Cleveland at 4.  

And leave it to the Jets.  Hackenburg (Lol), McCown, Bridgewater, and an overpay to trade up fo another QB.  Why in the world do you bring BOTH McCown and Bridgewater in if you are going to draft a QB at 3?  Now THERE is your example of a joke franchise. 

[Broncofan]

18 minutes ago, germ-x said:

With me not thinking Denver will go QB at #5, I love this move for Denver.

Good chance Bradley Chubb is available at #5 now.  Chubb’s my favorite player in this draft I’d be stoked if he becomes a Bronco.  I didn’t think there was anyway he’d make it past Indianapolis at #3.  

Yeah.  Chubb to IND was the natural fit.  Don’t see it anymore...unless CLE passes on Barkley at 1.4 and stands pat. 

Barkley likely only has 1 fit left - whoever doesn’t trade out of the 1.2 or 1.4 spot.   If NYG goes QB and CLE trades to BUF though - we’ll see.  Barkley to 1.5 seemed like a pipe dream.  Now we could have him and Chubb to decide on.  Crazy. 

It seems a lock 3 QB’s go 1-5.  No way NYJ moves up from 1.6 for a nonQB at that price.  BUF will move up for sure. Just a matter of 1.2 or 1.4 IMO.  Unless NYG is locked into Barkley and CLE wants Chubb. I don’t see CLE that locked in BUF/CLE is a fit that makes too much sense if NYG doesn’t want to move (I would in their shoes if they aren’t going QB IMO but who knows lol). 

Man this draft season has been awesome.  So much movement.  5 more weeks to go! 

[BroncoBruin]

The BPA element of this is good. But it also all but eliminates the possibility of a Buffalo trade. And if Elway is determined to go QB no matter what, pray for the Jets to Jet and pick Josh Allen.

[Royal_VT]

I hate this move for the pure fact that it totally diminishes our trade value at 5. Buffalo no longer would have the need to move in front of the Jets at 6, but have to move in front of us at 5. I suppose it is better to have this done now, so Elway can go through the scenarios ahead of time.

[broncos67]

We're going to have some really good non-QB options available to us at 5, that much I know. Keenum's contract sort of guarantees we don't take a QB early. Could be wrong, but you never know. 

Cle, NYG, NYJ are all taking QBs. Buffalo could trade ahead of us into the 4th spot, as could Miami if they like Mayfield as rumored. It's completely conceivable that Saquon Barkley is available at 5. Nelson is all but guaranteed to be available. Bradley Chubb is now firmly in play.

I still think Barkley gets taken ahead of us, but man, Bradley Chubb would be an absolute home run pick for this team defensively if Barkley isn't there. I still think the pick is going to be Nelson, which is a safe pick, but Chubb/Barkley are better players that would be better for this team given the positional value. In Barkley's case, he's just an absolute stud of a prospect. 

[Broncofan]

22 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

The BPA element of this is good. But it also all but eliminates the possibility of a Buffalo trade. And if Elway is determined to go QB no matter what, pray for the Jets to Jet and pick Josh Allen.

 

20 minutes ago, Royal_VT said:

I hate this move for the pure fact that it totally diminishes our trade value at 5. Buffalo no longer would have the need to move in front of the Jets at 6, but have to move in front of us at 5. I suppose it is better to have this done now, so Elway can go through the scenarios ahead of time.

It reduces our position with BUF, but the reality is that 1.5 was never a lock to get a top 3 QB.   It seems really unlikely now, but even before today the fear BUF would have had (and we still do) was the top 3 QB's all went before we picked.   Like you said, at least we can plan with more certainty on that count.   

As for BUF, moving to CLE 1.4 or NYG 1.2 is the obvious move for them - but keep in mind, NYG now seems to have to decide on Barkley at 1.2, QB at 1.2, or moving down.  I do not see them going Chubb at 1.2.   So here's the problem with 1.2 move-down scenario - in New York, they don't allow for long-term rebuilds, they are all about win-now - why they paid a ton for LT Solder.  But they are also about having star players at premium positions - and moving down gives away their chance to have marquee star player Barkley, or QBOTF Darnold/Rosen (I do not see Allen there lol).   And the kicker?  Whoever they pass up ends up playing next door for the Jets.   To me, that PR angle, in New York, is completely unacceptable.

I think given the above, NYG goes Barkley, or QB.   But they won't trade with BUF for 1.12 and 1.22 and a 2019 1st - that's the book value required.  The book value is way too low given the seller's market, and the fact other buyers still might want to move up to 1.2.   

Now, I do think CLE would be willing to trade with BUF for 1.12 / 1.22 and more (remember, 1.4's value is way lower than 1.2, it's a big jump).    But now 1.4 is unclear who that pick leaves.  So I think BUF will be inclined to wait and see what happens on Draft Night - and will be ready to strike (although no doubt they will be talking ahead of time, to be up-to-date who is willing to move out).    I suppose BUF would be willing to move again from 1.4 or 1.5 up again on Draft night, and might just want to climb up now, to be closer...but seems like they would want to wait until Draft Night to strike.    

All of which to say - our bargaining position was always iffy, because we couldn't project who would be there.   But with NYG likely pressured to stay at 1.2, I think how 1.1. to 1.3 goes on draft night dictates where BUF targets a trade.   They definitely want one of the top 4 QB's IMO.   So it's not over yet.

On our end, though - with 3 QB's likely gone, the appeal of moving down is marginal - the chances that an elite nonQB is there is 100 percent.   

[germ-x]

5 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

We're going to have some really good non-QB options available to us at 5, that much I know. Keenum's contract sort of guarantees we don't take a QB early. Could be wrong, but you never know. 

Cle, NYG, NYJ are all taking QBs. Buffalo could trade ahead of us into the 4th spot, as could Miami if they like Mayfield as rumored. It's completely conceivable that Saquon Barkley is available at 5. Nelson is all but guaranteed to be available. Bradley Chubb is now firmly in play.

I still think Barkley gets taken ahead of us, but man, Bradley Chubb would be an absolute home run pick for this team defensively if Barkley isn't there. I still think the pick is going to be Nelson, which is a safe pick, but Chubb/Barkley are better players that would be better for this team given the positional value. In Barkley's case, he's just an absolute stud of a prospect. 

Agreed.  I think Chubb’s pretty safe as well.  He’s maybe the most complete DE in quite some time.  Literally no weakness in his game.  Elite size, elite athlete for size, elite run defender, elite effort, and borderline elite pass rusher.

Chubb/Miller would be elite off the edge.  Throw in Ray/Barrett to spell them, and if Demarcus Walker turns into the interior passrusher he was drafted to be and that’s a good young front for years to come.

[iLikeDefense]

I’m glad this trade happened now. Gives Elway plenty of time to set up Plan A, B, C, etc. The thought of having a shot at Barkley and Chubb is exciting! 

[BroncoBruin]

I have a tough time imagining the Giants are insane enough to pass on a QB. Would be an all-time stupid move.

[DiehardBronxFan]

35 minutes ago, Royal_VT said:

I hate this move for the pure fact that it totally diminishes our trade value at 5. Buffalo no longer would have the need to move in front of the Jets at 6, but have to move in front of us at 5. I suppose it is better to have this done now, so Elway can go through the scenarios ahead of time.

Diminishes, yes.  But it was inevitable.  But  again, you really have  4 Elite players in this Draft, IMO.  Darnold, Rosen, Barkley and Chubb.  If, as looks quite possible, 1 of those 4 (say Barley or Chubb) is available at 5, with Indy Drafting at 6, I can see more than a few teams (just not Buffalo?) calling us to see what it would take to move up.

[DiehardBronxFan]

24 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

It reduces our position with BUF, but the reality is that 1.5 was never a lock to get a top 3 QB.   It seems really unlikely now, but even before today the fear BUF would have had (and we still do) was the top 3 QB's all went before we picked.   Like you said, at least we can plan with more certainty on that count.   

As for BUF, moving to CLE 1.4 or NYG 1.2 is the obvious move for them - but keep in mind, NYG now seems to have to decide on Barkley at 1.2, QB at 1.2, or moving down.  I do not see them going Chubb at 1.2.   So here's the problem with 1.2 move-down scenario - in New York, they don't allow for long-term rebuilds, they are all about win-now - why they paid a ton for LT Solder.  But they are also about having star players at premium positions - and moving down gives away their chance to have marquee star player Barkley, or QBOTF Darnold/Rosen (I do not see Allen there lol).   And the kicker?  Whoever they pass up ends up playing next door for the Jets.   To me, that PR angle, in New York, is completely unacceptable.

I think given the above, NYG goes Barkley, or QB.   But they won't trade with BUF for 1.12 and 1.22 and a 2019 1st - that's the book value required.  The book value is way too low given the seller's market, and the fact other buyers still might want to move up to 1.2.   

Now, I do think CLE would be willing to trade with BUF for 1.12 / 1.22 and more (remember, 1.4's value is way lower than 1.2, it's a big jump).    But now 1.4 is unclear who that pick leaves.  So I think BUF will be inclined to wait and see what happens on Draft Night - and will be ready to strike (although no doubt they will be talking ahead of time, to be up-to-date who is willing to move out).    I suppose BUF would be willing to move again from 1.4 or 1.5 up again on Draft night, and might just want to climb up now, to be closer...but seems like they would want to wait until Draft Night to strike.    

All of which to say - our bargaining position was always iffy, because we couldn't project who would be there.   But with NYG likely pressured to stay at 1.2, I think how 1.1. to 1.3 goes on draft night dictates where BUF targets a trade.   They definitely want one of the top 4 QB's IMO.   So it's not over yet.

On our end, though - with 3 QB's likely gone, the appeal of moving down is marginal - the chances that an elite nonQB is there is 100 percent.   

Absolutely spot on analysis.  The wild card is the Giants.  (Assuming Cleveland isn’t idiotic enough to pass on QB at 1 and stick with Taylor?).  Living out here, there really is no consensus on which way they will go, and they’ve been very tight lipped about it, other than the platitudes about “Eli is our Guy”.  But I agree I don’t see them trading down. QB or Barkley.  But Buffalo have got themselves in a position where they HAVE to do something.  If you’re Cleveland, you take your QB of choice at 1, get Buffalos 12 and 21 (and maybe more), and laugh all the way to the bank.  So either way, 3 top QB,s gone for sure.  We will almost certainly have a shot at one of Chubb or Barkley.  Should be fun!

Elway will have some very interesting