The Jon Gruden Thread, Man

[big_palooka]

1 hour ago, NightTrainLane said:

How do you know he won't look at trade options?

He's said as much. And his philosophy is building through the draft. Not saying he won't, but he value draft picks highly. To date, he's not traded a draft pick for a player that could help the team. Jags traded a 6th for Dareus. He's 27 and solidified their defense for example. 

 

2 hours ago, NightTrainLane said:

Reggie will be here til 2020 when his contract is up. Whether we resign him we be up to the owner.

So your justification can be assumptions and it's okay then? If Gruden doesn't jive with the FO, he will have authority to send them packing and bring in his own people in an instant. 

[NightTrainLane]

9 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

He's said as much. And his philosophy is building through the draft. Not saying he won't, but he value draft picks highly. To date, he's not traded a draft pick for a player that could help the team. Jags traded a 6th for Dareus. He's 27 and solidified their defense for example. 

 

So your justification can be assumptions and it's okay then? If Gruden doesn't jive with the FO, he will have authority to send them packing and bring in his own people in an instant. 

When did he say that he won't look at trades?

Because that is what you said...

Just because we haven't traded doesn't mean he hasn't looked.

My justification is that Reggie has built up enough success, good will and equity to stay thru his contract. He and Gruden are working toward the same goals, have the same general philosophy and come from the same management tree. You justification is what if they don't get along...Gruden will can him. Big difference.

[NightTrainLane]

35 minutes ago, holyghost said:

Listen, I'm a supporter of McKenzie. But it seems something about the overall plan went astray these past 2 years. Prior to that I gave him a pass on the first couple of drafts because it appeared he had to entirely modernize a scouting department. That can take time, I get it. Plus he has had some responsibilities that go way beyond a typical GM job. In some ways he has been in charge of an entire organizational rebuild the likes of an expansion franchise. He should have had or should have advocated for a partner in this in terms of logistics. A team president, director of blah blah, something. Someone to take some burden off. Overhauling business side, the things like the team facility, scouting dept. rebuild and so on. It's unfair to expect one guy to be a master of all these phases and then do so expediently as well.

Alas, 2014 comes and we all get the great feeling that it is bearing fruit. The concern at that time was putting it back together into a winner, getting real talent. Getting top talent. It is in fact easier to tear down than to build well. He tore it down beautifully. Then in 2014 he started putting it back together beautifully. I was seeing the right cuts, the right new players, the right attitude and locker room. 2015 wasn't as good, but still yielded progression. Not talking in terms of on field successes, but building the right way.

Something in the past two drafts and offseasons has gone off course. Now we're picking guys with issues in the 1st round, signing guys with circus shows. Last offseason was frought with issues. Every team with a plethora of offseason drama and issues goes to the dogs. Drafting guys for 2 years who end up contributing nothing at all. I do not like the past two drafts and the past two offseasons. And I don't know how we went from a Gabe Jackson in the 3rd to an Eddie Vanderdoes or Shilique Calhoun. Or how we went from quickly jettisoning crap scholarship guys to all of a sudden now we've been accumulating them again for the past 2/3 years.  It is as if we're gravitating slowly back to the old dysfunctional Raiders we all enjoyed the end of. 

Whether it was Del Rio's input, or some other problem, I just want McKenzie to get back on the course they seemed to be on. If that means shifting the philosophy to maybe trading up, targeting key players, another way of doing things, then he has to adapt. We can't exist on the model of piling drafted guys and developing them to fit and fill endlessly. Because that model is largely based on the coaching staff and system being utterly stable and consistent, and excelling. So it seems to me the philosophy of team building of the last two years didn't mesh. 

McKenzie adapted really well the first 3+ years, somewhere along the line it stopped. Don't know whose fault it is, I just want to see it back on the track it was on for the first 3 years. Whoever was responsible for that plan needs to be running today's plan. 

The past 2 years a huge problem has been injuries to the young defensive core that we have drafted. If the philosophy is to build the D thru the draft and 2 years straight we draft defense the top 3 picks and they all miss parts or all of camp and OTAs and parts of the season to injuries, the plan doesn't have a good chance to succeed.

[holyghost]

That falls into the changed / shifted plan I am talking about. It's not just injuries, these guys have not been good either. But now in the past 2 years the amount of draft risk and project taking has ascended from previous years. Joseph - 1st round risk, Ward - project and 2nd round specimen, Calhoun - yeesh, Conley - 1st round risk, Melifonwu - project and 2nd round specimen, Vanderdoes - risk and yeesh. So what played into this draft pattern that seems to differ from previous plans? There is a clear pattern by the way, and it differs from some of the previous drafts. Del Rio's mark is possibly on it considering they're all defenders. But McKenzie is the same guy who took Hayden and Edwards who also fit that pattern. I don't know, don't really care. I just want the plan to be on some sort of intelligent track and to have some semblance of stability. And to radically differ from the old Raider way which crashed and burned for years and years. It has seemed to gravitate back in that direction, which I cringe at. You can't chalk it all up to freak injury, there's definitely something more amiss there. 

[NightTrainLane]

And them missing important preparation time and and on field experience has a lot to do with them not being productive IMO.

[holyghost]

Just now, NightTrainLane said:

And them missing important preparation time and and on field experience has a lot to do with them not being productive IMO.

Doubtful of that. It's incredibly infrequent good and great players are set back in this way. Hayden being a good example. Waiting and waiting, saying once he could get over the injuries he'd show out. I've heard that narrative a million times as a Raider fan as an explanation, and it has rarely if ever yielded anything promised.

Good and great players show to some degree even when going through injury problems. Telling me Ward, Joseph, Vanderdoes, Melifonwu are going to somehow ascend at this point is typical Raider fan dreaming at this point, or buying the narrative you are being sold by staff. Conley, that I see happening. Because even in those 2 games, he showed something definitive that suggests he has a good ceiling he will be able to reach. If he can overcome injury I am convinced he will be a real good player. The others haven't and using injury as an explanation for it is thin logic. I agree it has set them back, but I doubt their ascension and pro ceiling in any case, with or without setbacks. Tell the difference between the crap staff and media sell you and the reality of what you've seen for years and years as a fan paying close attention. It's just a hollow narrative designed to buy time until you half forget and pin your hopes on the next crop of signees and draftees. 

[NightTrainLane]

33 minutes ago, holyghost said:

Doubtful of that. It's incredibly infrequent good and great players are set back in this way. Hayden being a good example. Waiting and waiting, saying once he could get over the injuries he'd show out. I've heard that narrative a million times as a Raider fan as an explanation, and it has rarely if ever yielded anything promised.

Good and great players show to some degree even when going through injury problems. Telling me Ward, Joseph, Vanderdoes, Melifonwu are going to somehow ascend at this point is typical Raider fan dreaming at this point, or buying the narrative you are being sold by staff. Conley, that I see happening. Because even in those 2 games, he showed something definitive that suggests he has a good ceiling he will be able to reach. If he can overcome injury I am convinced he will be a real good player. The others haven't and using injury as an explanation for it is thin logic. I agree it has set them back, but I doubt their ascension and pro ceiling in any case, with or without setbacks. Tell the difference between the crap staff and media sell you and the reality of what you've seen for years and years as a fan paying close attention. It's just a hollow narrative designed to buy time until you half forget and pin your hopes on the next crop of signees and draftees. 

Hayden is hardly enough evidence to support that opinion.

and that is what sides of this are...opinions.

[NickButera]

To be fair, Reggie is showing a pattern of drafting "cute".  Like he always tries to pick guys he thinks could be gems but everyone else doesn't think that highly of. Most of his picks seem to have the air of "well maybe Reggie knows something the rest of us don't", but then most of the time it turns out no, no he just picked a project player that has an incredibly slim chance of panning out and most of them haven't been.  And I'm mostly talking 2nd, 3rd, 4th round guys. The meat of the draft. I'm a big Reggie fan, but his draft history is becoming dodgy. 

[holyghost]

3 hours ago, NightTrainLane said:

Hayden is hardly enough evidence to support that opinion.

and that is what sides of this are...opinions.

I don't really need any evidence to support an opinion. It's an opinion. And I just cited him as an example. 

 

Thanks to Nick for verbalizing something I could not put together. There is an element of "Al" style drafting to Reggie's recent efforts, and I am firmly against it. Swing for the fences in every round. As expected, lots of swings and misses. Especially when you're slumping.

[Rich7sena]

4 hours ago, holyghost said:

Doubtful of that. It's incredibly infrequent good and great players are set back in this way. Hayden being a good example. Waiting and waiting, saying once he could get over the injuries he'd show out. I've heard that narrative a million times as a Raider fan as an explanation, and it has rarely if ever yielded anything promised.

Good and great players show to some degree even when going through injury problems. Telling me Ward, Joseph, Vanderdoes, Melifonwu are going to somehow ascend at this point is typical Raider fan dreaming at this point, or buying the narrative you are being sold by staff. Conley, that I see happening. Because even in those 2 games, he showed something definitive that suggests he has a good ceiling he will be able to reach. If he can overcome injury I am convinced he will be a real good player. The others haven't and using injury as an explanation for it is thin logic. I agree it has set them back, but I doubt their ascension and pro ceiling in any case, with or without setbacks. Tell the difference between the crap staff and media sell you and the reality of what you've seen for years and years as a fan paying close attention. It's just a hollow narrative designed to buy time until you half forget and pin your hopes on the next crop of signees and draftees. 

Your logic is all over the place in this post.

Ward, Joseph, Vanderdoes, and Melifonwu are all very different players with different upsides and outlooks. Ward was a bad pick by almost every measure, but the same can't be said about Joseph, who -- despite not playing great in stretches in 2017 -- has proved he can play at a high level in the NFL. Melifonwu virtually never saw the field at the position he was drafted to play. And Vanderdoes is a 4th round rookie who played the 3rd most snaps on the interior defensive line this season. Even if he only gets marginally better than the player he was in 2017, I'd say he'll be about what you should expect from a 4th rounder.

[Blazer026]

3 hours ago, NickButera said:

To be fair, Reggie is showing a pattern of drafting "cute".  Like he always tries to pick guys he thinks could be gems but everyone else doesn't think that highly of. Most of his picks seem to have the air of "well maybe Reggie knows something the rest of us don't", but then most of the time it turns out no, no he just picked a project player that has an incredibly slim chance of panning out and most of them haven't been.  And I'm mostly talking 2nd, 3rd, 4th round guys. The meat of the draft. I'm a big Reggie fan, but his draft history is becoming dodgy. 

Curious to who you guys think were the project picks.

Ward obviously, Hayden and Watson? 

[NightTrainLane]

44 minutes ago, holyghost said:

I don't really need any evidence to support an opinion. It's an opinion. And I just cited him as an example. 

 

Thanks to Nick for verbalizing something I could not put together. There is an element of "Al" style drafting to Reggie's recent efforts, and I am firmly against it. Swing for the fences in every round. As expected, lots of swings and misses. Especially when you're slumping.

It was a terrible example.

And thanks to Rich for putting into words what I'm too bored to.

[big_palooka]

8 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

Your logic is all over the place in this post.

Ward, Joseph, Vanderdoes, and Melifonwu are all very different players with different upsides and outlooks. Ward was a bad pick by almost every measure, but the same can't be said about Joseph, who -- despite not playing great in stretches in 2017 -- has proved he can play at a high level in the NFL. Melifonwu virtually never saw the field at the position he was drafted to play. And Vanderdoes is a 4th round rookie who played the 3rd most snaps on the interior defensive line this season. Even if he only gets marginally better than the player he was in 2017, I'd say he'll be about what you should expect from a 4th rounder.

Vanderdoes was a 3rd round pick. Despite all his snaps, he flashed next to nothing to be excited about. Even if he marginally improves (after another ACL injury) will he still be worth a selection in top 100 is the questions. If he was a 4th round pick... it'd be a little more forgiving. 

[holyghost]

3 hours ago, big_palooka said:

Vanderdoes was a 3rd round pick. Despite all his snaps, he flashed next to nothing to be excited about. Even if he marginally improves (after another ACL injury) will he still be worth a selection in top 100 is the questions. If he was a 4th round pick... it'd be a little more forgiving. 

Thank you.

The logic is simple. Conley showed in a short span, even with all his "missed injury time excuse", genuine promise and an innate football ability to do his job well. The others have not. Sorry to break the bad news but great players are almost always like baby fish, they're born swimming. Typical Raider fan pipe dream is to say they all have some great ceiling, when in fact Conley does and the others do not. Talk about flawed selective logic - injury set back the others' ability to perform but not Conley? Explain that one. Explain the selective logic if you're so apt to question mine.

Let me spell it out for those who do not want to accept it.

Conley has a chance to be a very good player, if he can get over the injury issues and make the ascension. Ward, terribly unlikely, injured or healthy he is likely not going to be worth the pick and not going to be a game changing asset. Joseph, it's very likely he is what he has shown so far - a limited player. Assuming he is magically going to be able to cover TEs or excel in coverage at all, or have any nose for the ball is dreaming of the idea that injury is the reason he has not done these things thus far. Melifonwu, very likely he is a limited ceiling project player. Injury or not he looked lost when he did play. Vanderdoes - very likely he is another Justin Ellis, as in, just a guy. 

Furthermore, I do not know how a fan can watch a guy play, and be lost, and look poor, then say he has a great ceiling. That defies logic. Doesn't the speed and rate of their improvement in their actual performance define the ceiling? Marshon Lattimore makes all pro his first year, that is a great ceiling. Karl Joseph struggles for two years, at this speed it will take 30 years of improvement to make all pro. Trouble is he doesn't have 30 years. People look at height, weight, speed as ceiling. But once you hit the pros that's not the truth at all. It's rate of performance improvement. How fast is a guy getting better, and how much better, in the short span his career will actually last?

I don't know about other teams, but in Raider fan land it's just a Chaz Schilens story every week of the year. On the rare occasion a good or great player on another team is truly set back by injury or suddenly excels without showing any signs of it, a Raider fan will point to that and say "it happens all the time". And then falsely apply it to every mediocre draft pick with a "ceiling" that they refuse to accept as a limited or ineffective player who isn't going to become whatever they are wishing for. Wishful thinking. 

[Rich7sena]

39 minutes ago, holyghost said:

Thank you.

The logic is simple. Conley showed in a short span, even with all his "missed injury time excuse", genuine promise and an innate football ability to do his job well. The others have not. Sorry to break the bad news but great players are almost always like baby fish, they're born swimming. Typical Raider fan pipe dream is to say they all have some great ceiling, when in fact Conley does and the others do not. Talk about flawed selective logic - injury set back the others' ability to perform but not Conley? Explain that one. Explain the selective logic if you're so apt to question mine.

Conley didn't perform nearly as well as you think he did. His sample size was so incredibly small there's little to no conclusion you should make about his ability that isn't rooted in his college tape. Same goes for Melifonwu.

Further, putting Melifonwu at corner would be akin to putting Conley and safety or linebacker. It would have been just as valid to question making a conclusion on Conley's play at another position had he been asked.

Edited February 7, 2018 by Rich7sena