The Jon Gruden Thread, Man

[holyghost]

1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

Conley didn't perform nearly as well as you think he did. His sample size was so incredibly small there's little to no conclusion you should make about his ability that isn't rooted in his college tape. Same goes for Melifonwu.

Further, putting Melifonwu at corner would be akin to putting Conley and safety or linebacker. It would have been just as valid to question making a conclusion on Conley's play at another position had he been asked.

First selective logic, then covering it with circular logic. Oh you rascal internet, you get me every time.

Conley made a few actual plays in two games. Sure, it's a small sample size. But it is a clear sign of performance the others have not shown. And they certainly have not shown so quickly, and with the lost training time they are all "victims" of. You're arguing setbacks and somehow supporting a ceiling for other guys who have performed significantly more poorly in the same or bigger sample size as Conley's, which is the selective logic. Which isn't addressed at all here. It probably won't be. No fan wants to fairly assess their players if it means the cupboard is more barren than fantasy could make it. It's a human phenomenon to overvalue if it means some sort of hope of magical ascension.

Then further supporting the position with the Melifonwu case. I could just as easily say that if Melifonwu showed to the staff what Conley did at corner, would they get the brainy idea of moving him in the first place? If he was potentially invaluable at safety, would he be moved? Did anyone think of moving Conley to safety or some similar stupidity? In my mind, they talk of moving a guy is because it's clear he's struggling where he is. Which is not a surprise. Melifonwu is a very large secondary player. What makes it even more unfathomable is that they thought to move him to corner instead of some sub package coverage linebacker.

The two go hand in hand. To have a first year player from the 2nd round moved mid season already is typically one of two things. A staff of utter idiots, or a red flag about the player's performance and growth. Or both. The greater point here is that nothing you said resolves the screwy logic of how these 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks are inconsistently viewed by fans. And how they are all hoped to be much more than they ever become, even though there are pretty clear views on such things that typically run very consistently. Ceiling is performance, in year 3 sure but also from day one. 

[oakdb36]

Conley was a first round pick. He should be a great player.

Vanderdoes was a 3rd rounder. If he can just become a good starter, it's a fine pick. A 3rd rounder probably shouldn't be expected to be a day 1 starter in his rookie season and he definitely shouldn't be expected to be great if he has to. I have no idea what he will become (and with his injury history, i'm not expecting much) but it's not really surprising he didn't set the league on fire.

[oakdb36]

Iirc, they played Obi at CB because everybody else was injured.

[reddevil]

13 minutes ago, oakdb36 said:

Iirc, they played Obi at CB because everybody else was injured.

Yep

[dante9876]

Obi got played at corner cause our staff was morons.

[NightTrainLane]

1 hour ago, dante9876 said:

Obi got played at corner cause our staff was morons.

and because everyone else was injured.

[big_palooka]

3 hours ago, holyghost said:

A staff of utter idiots,

I mean....this is pretty accurate lol

[Rich7sena]

6 hours ago, holyghost said:

First selective logic, then covering it with circular logic. Oh you rascal internet, you get me every time.

Conley made a few actual plays in two games. Sure, it's a small sample size. But it is a clear sign of performance the others have not shown. And they certainly have not shown so quickly, and with the lost training time they are all "victims" of. You're arguing setbacks and somehow supporting a ceiling for other guys who have performed significantly more poorly in the same or bigger sample size as Conley's, which is the selective logic. Which isn't addressed at all here. It probably won't be. No fan wants to fairly assess their players if it means the cupboard is more barren than fantasy could make it. It's a human phenomenon to overvalue if it means some sort of hope of magical ascension.

Then further supporting the position with the Melifonwu case. I could just as easily say that if Melifonwu showed to the staff what Conley did at corner, would they get the brainy idea of moving him in the first place? If he was potentially invaluable at safety, would he be moved? Did anyone think of moving Conley to safety or some similar stupidity? In my mind, they talk of moving a guy is because it's clear he's struggling where he is. Which is not a surprise. Melifonwu is a very large secondary player. What makes it even more unfathomable is that they thought to move him to corner instead of some sub package coverage linebacker.

The two go hand in hand. To have a first year player from the 2nd round moved mid season already is typically one of two things. A staff of utter idiots, or a red flag about the player's performance and growth. Or both. The greater point here is that nothing you said resolves the screwy logic of how these 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks are inconsistently viewed by fans. And how they are all hoped to be much more than they ever become, even though there are pretty clear views on such things that typically run very consistently. Ceiling is performance, in year 3 sure but also from day one. 

Firstly, I don't think you know what circular logic is. I made a claim and supported my claim. Circular logic would be: Obi Melifonwu is good because I said he's good and I'm always right.

Secondly, I'm not arguing Melifonwu, Vanderdoes, or any other player on the roster are great players. I'm simply saying it's way, way, WAY, too early to give up on them -- which is what you're advocating for here:

Quote

Good and great players show to some degree even when going through injury problems. Telling me Ward, Joseph, Vanderdoes, Melifonwu are going to somehow ascend at this point is typical Raider fan dreaming at this point

This is false. The following players became good/great players after not contributing much or playing badly their rookie years:

William Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Josh Norman, Nelson Agholor, Marqise Lee, Jared Goff, Everson Griffen, A.J. Bouye, Melvin Gordon, Derrick Henry, Devonta Feeman, Rashaan Melvin, Kyle Fuller, Vic Beasley, Darius Slay, LaMarcus Joyner, Prince Amukamara, and I could literally go on for pages.

It's not like you have any valuable evaluative analysis either. You're just making overarching conclusions that fit your narrative. Your last two paragraphs on Melifonwu really highlight your bias. Melifonwu was out for a significant amount of time during the season; meaning he likely wasn't ready to step in place of Nelson right away. In his first game he played a dime role and did just fine in limited snaps. When you say this:

Quote

 

In my mind, they talk of moving a guy is because it's clear he's struggling where he is. Which is not a surprise.

 

You're being completely disingenuous. Did you even follow the team during the year? During this point of the season Amerson and Conley both went down and Sean Smith was struggling. JDR said the move was out of desperation.

Lastly, and also to be perfectly clear, I'm refuting your point that what we see in a player's first year is definitive of who they will be. I think I've clearly proven this to be false.

Does Reggie need to draft better -- especially in the middle rounds? Yes. Does that mean we shouldn't give players time to develop who either barely played or struggled in 2017? No.

Edited February 8, 2018 by Rich7sena

[raidr4life]

9 hours ago, holyghost said:

Thank you.

The logic is simple. Conley showed in a short span, even with all his "missed injury time excuse", genuine promise and an innate football ability to do his job well. The others have not. Sorry to break the bad news but great players are almost always like baby fish, they're born swimming. Typical Raider fan pipe dream is to say they all have some great ceiling, when in fact Conley does and the others do not. Talk about flawed selective logic - injury set back the others' ability to perform but not Conley? Explain that one. Explain the selective logic if you're so apt to question mine.

Let me spell it out for those who do not want to accept it.

Conley has a chance to be a very good player, if he can get over the injury issues and make the ascension. Ward, terribly unlikely, injured or healthy he is likely not going to be worth the pick and not going to be a game changing asset. Joseph, it's very likely he is what he has shown so far - a limited player. Assuming he is magically going to be able to cover TEs or excel in coverage at all, or have any nose for the ball is dreaming of the idea that injury is the reason he has not done these things thus far. Melifonwu, very likely he is a limited ceiling project player. Injury or not he looked lost when he did play. Vanderdoes - very likely he is another Justin Ellis, as in, just a guy. 

Furthermore, I do not know how a fan can watch a guy play, and be lost, and look poor, then say he has a great ceiling. That defies logic. Doesn't the speed and rate of their improvement in their actual performance define the ceiling? Marshon Lattimore makes all pro his first year, that is a great ceiling. Karl Joseph struggles for two years, at this speed it will take 30 years of improvement to make all pro. Trouble is he doesn't have 30 years. People look at height, weight, speed as ceiling. But once you hit the pros that's not the truth at all. It's rate of performance improvement. How fast is a guy getting better, and how much better, in the short span his career will actually last?

I don't know about other teams, but in Raider fan land it's just a Chaz Schilens story every week of the year. On the rare occasion a good or great player on another team is truly set back by injury or suddenly excels without showing any signs of it, a Raider fan will point to that and say "it happens all the time". And then falsely apply it to every mediocre draft pick with a "ceiling" that they refuse to accept as a limited or ineffective player who isn't going to become whatever they are wishing for. Wishful thinking. 

So if a QB has a really good rookie year, that means all QB's should be good at the same rate?

[raidr4life]

1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

Firstly, I don't think you know what circular logic is. I made a claim and supported my claim. Circular logic would be: Obi Melifonwu is good because I said he's good and I'm always right.

Secondly, I'm not arguing Melifonwu, Vanderdoes, or any other player on the roster are great players. I'm simply saying it's way, way, WAY, too early to give up on them -- which is what you're advocating for here:

This is false. The following players became good/great players after not contributing much or playing badly their rookie years:

William Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Josh Norman, Nelson Agholor, Marqise Lee, Jared Goff, Everson Griffen, A.J. Bouye, Melvin Gordon, Derrick Henry, Devonta Feeman, Rashaan Melvin, Kyle Fuller, Vic Beasley, Darius Slay, LaMarcus Joyner, Prince Amukamara, and I could literally go on for pages.

It's not like you have any valuable evaluative analysis either. You're just making overarching conclusions that fit your narrative. Your last two paragraphs on Melifonwu really highlight your bias. Melifonwu was out for a significant amount of time during the season; meaning he likely wasn't ready to step in place of Nelson right away. In his first game he played a dime role and did just fine in limited snaps. When you say this:

You're being completely disingenuous. Did you even follow the team during the year? During this point of the season Amerson and Conley both went down and Sean Smith was struggling. JDR said the move was out of desperation.

Lastly, and also to be perfectly clear, I'm refuting your point that what we see in a player's first year is definitive of who they will be. I think I've clearly proven this to be false.

Does Reggie need to draft better -- especially in the middle rounds? Yes. Does that mean we shouldn't give players time to develop who either barely played or struggled in 2017? No.

Yeah! What he said!

[holyghost]

Long live the Ausberry comeback!

Anttaj Hawthorne FTW

[FloydFan]

5 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

Firstly, I don't think you know what circular logic is. I made a claim and supported my claim. Circular logic would be: Obi Melifonwu is good because I said he's good and I'm always right.

Secondly, I'm not arguing Melifonwu, Vanderdoes, or any other player on the roster are great players. I'm simply saying it's way, way, WAY, too early to give up on them -- which is what you're advocating for here:

This is false. The following players became good/great players after not contributing much or playing badly their rookie years:

William Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Josh Norman, Nelson Agholor, Marqise Lee, Jared Goff, Everson Griffen, A.J. Bouye, Melvin Gordon, Derrick Henry, Devonta Feeman, Rashaan Melvin, Kyle Fuller, Vic Beasley, Darius Slay, LaMarcus Joyner, Prince Amukamara, and I could literally go on for pages.

It's not like you have any valuable evaluative analysis either. You're just making overarching conclusions that fit your narrative. Your last two paragraphs on Melifonwu really highlight your bias. Melifonwu was out for a significant amount of time during the season; meaning he likely wasn't ready to step in place of Nelson right away. In his first game he played a dime role and did just fine in limited snaps. When you say this:

You're being completely disingenuous. Did you even follow the team during the year? During this point of the season Amerson and Conley both went down and Sean Smith was struggling. JDR said the move was out of desperation.

Lastly, and also to be perfectly clear, I'm refuting your point that what we see in a player's first year is definitive of who they will be. I think I've clearly proven this to be false.

Does Reggie need to draft better -- especially in the middle rounds? Yes. Does that mean we shouldn't give players time to develop who either barely played or struggled in 2017? No.

This. I’m sorry, but wanting to give up on a player after one year is gonna put us in that same position we were in during th Al years. BP, didn’t you used to be a proponent against this?!

[BigD1123]

Yep if I recall even Nnamndi was pretty crappy his first few yrs. Then he turned into a beast.

[big_palooka]

6 hours ago, FloydFan said:

This. I’m sorry, but wanting to give up on a player after one year is gonna put us in that same position we were in during th Al years. BP, didn’t you used to be a proponent against this?!

I don't think @holyghost is advocating giving up on a player after 1 year. Just being real in that fans need to temper expectations. And it should not detract from the team drafting/signing a backup plan. 

I live by words in life, expect nothing and accept everything. 

Yes. You need to give rookies time to develop. You do not however need to stick with them past their expiration date. 

[oakdb36]

1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

I don't think @holyghost is advocating giving up on a player after 1 year. Just being real in that fans need to temper expectations. And it should not detract from the team drafting/signing a backup plan. 

Not really. He can somehow determine a player who has seen 34 regular season snaps won't be anything. It's ridiculous. We don't know what those guys will become, be it good or bad. Going from one extreme to the other doesn't make you right when the truth is somewhere in the middle.