What QB Do We Want Going Into 2018?

[Riddle]

5 hours ago, disaacs said:

That is fair, but I'm not sure, in the end, that that'll make a difference.  It's just not something they often do regardless.  

Sounds like recency bias. Perhaps we haven't done it often because we haven't often had a player worth the cost of the tag hit the open market? Can you give me an example of a Vikings free agent that wasn't tagged, but would be in that tier? 

[SemperFeist]

22 minutes ago, Riddle said:

Why would Case be interested in that deal? If he hits the open market, dude is getting paid! 

This is where I disagree. A team isn’t going to hand Keenum a $100M contract. Will he get starters level money, most likely, but there are going to be plenty of strings attached. 

He simply doesn’t have the resume for a team to sign him without some level of insurance on their part. 

[Riddle]

8 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

This is where I disagree. A team isn’t going to hand Keenum a $100M contract. Will he get starters level money, most likely, but there are going to be plenty of strings attached. 

He simply doesn’t have the resume for a team to sign him without some level of insurance on their part. 

He may not get $100 million, but hes not getting your proposed 3 year deal with an easy out after one either. He'll get a legit starters contract - currently projecting 4 years, 85 million, $40 million of it fully guaranteed. If we keep winning, his value keeps going up.

I would argue that hes already earned deals at or better than Tannehill; Dalton; Taylor; Smith; possibly Flacco.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/

(These are reasons I voted Teddy above, fwiw)

 

[SemperFeist]

Yeah, I bet he doesn’t see anything close to that. But, only time will tell. 

[Riddle]

13 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

Yeah, I bet he doesn’t see anything close to that. But, only time will tell. 

Time will tell. In the meantime, defend your position by lining up facts that support it - I am willing to be convinced that I am misjudging. What about Case makes him worth less than the QB's mentioned above, or what other factors drive down Case's value? 

[SemperFeist]

Name one quarterback that has signed the level of contract that you’re talking about whose only had one decent year of production?

 

[Riddle]

8 hours ago, SemperFeist said:

Name one quarterback that has signed the level of contract that you’re talking about whose only had one decent year of production?

 

Ugh...This isn't really how debate works - it would be customary for you to provide supporting evidence for your own position; evidence to undermine my points; and to do your own research to that end.

That said, within the parameters of your question, the best example I can come up with is Kurt Warner. In 1999, at age 28, he came out of the grocery store stock room to lead the greatest show on turf. At that time, it was his only "decent" or better year of production: 65.1% completion; 4,353 yards, 41 TDs, 13 INTs. In the following off season he signed a deal worth $47 million with a $17.5 million dollar bonus, which was an NFL record at the time. Further, Kurt was an exclusive rights player - he had far less leverage than Case has as a free agent. https://www.upi.com/Archives/2000/07/27/Kurt-Warner-signs-huge-contract/1569964670400/

Now, I recognize that while Case had a good year (67.6%; 3,547 yards; 21 TDs; 7 Ints), he didn't have the kind of year that Kurt did (or his weapons). Kurt also lead them to a super bowl (which I've previously stated will continue to inflate Case's value). I am not suggesting that Case will sign an NFL record deal, but there is precedent for him to leverage his only "decent" season as a starter into a legit starters contract.

To further illustrate the point, Mike Glennon got the kind of deal you are suggesting for Case last off season (Low level starter money and a potential out after a season). Mike was three years removed from his best season when he signed this deal, and his best was not very good (59.4%; 2,608 yards; 19 TD's; 9 Ints). 

Case will earn more than Mike Glennon, and will also get assurances beyond one season (here or elsewhere). He wont sign an NFL record contract and will likely still be outside the top 5, but the top 12 QBs by average salary make greater than $20 million per season. 

Based on the points above, it is completely reasonable to expect Case Keenum to sign a deal between 4 and 5 years in length worth in excess of $20 million a year. His bonus will likely be around 50% of the total deal.

Now - why do you think I'm wrong?

 

[Purplexing]

Um.... it's already 2018.  Can Saints fans sneak in here and vote on this poll?

[Purplexing]

2 hours ago, SemperFeist said:

Name one quarterback that has signed the level of contract that you’re talking about whose only had one decent year of production?

 

Not sure what 'level of contract' means in terms of nominal value or inflation-adjusted money.  But several QBs with one good year of experience signed onto big deals.  Some of them worked out well, and others didn't work out well with their new team.  One factor to consider is re-signing with the current team vs. signing elsewhere on a team with different players, coaches and offensive schemes.  Your question as posed is far too broad to answer briefly with informative content.  The Vikings have a 're-sign' situation, which should limit the cases we consider in a QB signing a big deal and succeeding after one good year.    One could argue that Keenum, Bradford, and/or Bridgewater had great collegiate careers, but I don't have time to find those details that others may want to pursue to see if they had credible records of success to invalidate your 'one good year' qualifier.

[swede700]

10 hours ago, Riddle said:

He may not get $100 million, but hes not getting your proposed 3 year deal with an easy out after one either. He'll get a legit starters contract - currently projecting 4 years, 85 million, $40 million of it fully guaranteed. If we keep winning, his value keeps going up.

I would argue that hes already earned deals at or better than Tannehill; Dalton; Taylor; Smith; possibly Flacco.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/quarterback/

(These are reasons I voted Teddy above, fwiw)

 

I believe most, if not all, landing spots would give themselves flexibility of an out after a year (or 2) because he doesn't have a track record.  The guys you are talking about all had track records with their team (and were younger when their contracts were signed).  

The example you provided of Kurt Warner is different also because he was a full 2 years younger and didn't have a 5 year track record with a good number of starts under his belt like Case does.  He didn't have the history of mediocrity, because he had no previous history outside of being an upper echelon Arena League QB.  I'd be highly surprised to see Case Keenum get a 5 year deal anywhere, because he'll be 30 years old by the time next season starts.  Proven NFL starters age 28 or younger or HOF level QBs get 5 year deals...30-yr old QBs with only 1 season of any verifiable success do not.  Even Alex Smith at the age of 30 only got a 4-yr deal and he had a far better track record than Keenum.  He will likely get $20M+, but he ain't getting more than 3 years.  But if someone else wants to give him that, more power to them.  I can't see Spielman or Brz doing that.    

[Cearbhall]

2 hours ago, Riddle said:

Ugh...This isn't really how debate works - it would be customary for you to provide supporting evidence for your own position; evidence to undermine my points; and to do your own research to that end.

That said, within the parameters of your question, the best example I can come up with is Kurt Warner. In 1999, at age 28, he came out of the grocery store stock room to lead the greatest show on turf. At that time, it was his only "decent" or better year of production: 65.1% completion; 4,353 yards, 41 TDs, 13 INTs. In the following off season he signed a deal worth $47 million with a $17.5 million dollar bonus, which was an NFL record at the time. Further, Kurt was an exclusive rights player - he had far less leverage than Case has as a free agent. https://www.upi.com/Archives/2000/07/27/Kurt-Warner-signs-huge-contract/1569964670400/

Now, I recognize that while Case had a good year (67.6%; 3,547 yards; 21 TDs; 7 Ints), he didn't have the kind of year that Kurt did (or his weapons). Kurt also lead them to a super bowl (which I've previously stated will continue to inflate Case's value). I am not suggesting that Case will sign an NFL record deal, but there is precedent for him to get leverage his only "decent" season as a starter into a legit starters contract.

To further illustrate the point, Mike Glennon got the kind of deal you are suggesting for Case last off season (Low level starter money and a potential out after a season). Mike was three years removed from his best season when he signed this deal, and his best was not very good (59.4%; 2,608 yards; 19 TD's; 9 Ints). 

Case will earn more than Mike Glennon, and will also get assurances beyond one season (here or elsewhere). He wont sign an NFL record contract and will likely still be outside the top 5, but the top 12 QBs by average salary make greater than $20 million per season. 

Based on the points above, it is completely reasonable to expect Case Keenum to sign a deal between 4 and 5 years in length worth in excess of $20 million a year. His bonus will likely be around 50% of the total deal.

Now - why do you think I'm wrong?

 

Well done. I agree completely that Case will not get an NFL record contract. I do think that the top of the QB scale will get blown away in the next couple years. Proven QBs will start getting paid $30M per year in the next couple years. Stafford already set the bar at $27M. There are much better QBs than Stafford in line for new contracts that will quickly bury Stafford's contract. It will start with Cousins breaking the $27M anual average and continue through Aaron Rodgers getting a new deal that should easily be over $30M either this offseason of next offseason if the Packers want to underpay their QB for that long and Aaron doesn't make too much a stink. He already has made comments.

On the open market Case should be able to average well over $20M per year on his contract and if he continues to play at his 2017 level that will be a bargain for whoever signs him as all the decent QBs signing in a few years, but still during the term of Keenum's contract, will be getting $25M to $30M a year.

[Cearbhall]

18 minutes ago, disaacs said:

I believe most, if not all, landing spots would give themselves flexibility of an out after a year (or 2) because he doesn't have a track record.  The guys you are talking about all had track records with their team (and were younger when their contracts were signed).  

I agree that teams will be interested in flexibility after a year or two. The agent would be willing to talk about that but it will cost the team a pretty penny to buy that flexibility. A contract structures like this will give Case a lot more in the first year than a contract where a team takes a bit more risk.  A contract with an easy out after two years might put Case's first two years into the $25M range. It would be cheaper for the Vikings to simply franchise the guy if they don't want to take on the risk associated with his short track record.

Fwiw, Case does have a pretty strong track record with his play in two years before signing with the Vikings. Florio pointed out recently that he was 6-2 with the Rams, the terrible Jeff Fisher Rams, in hist last four starts of 2015 and first four of 2016. He lost a couple after that before the Rams replaced him with Goff, but 6-2 with that team, the same team Goff couldn't win a game with, is pretty darn impressive. Couple that with his run this year and he is more proven than some here would lead you to believe.

So yeah, a team can buy insurance on the deal they signed Case to but it might not be worth the price. It especially is not worth the price for the Viking since they can franchise Case.

[Nozizaki]

Seriously, if it's feasible, I'd love to have both back. I get the feeling Keenum would end up backing up Teddy, but let them decide it on the field. I think the goal was always to try and keep Teddy of the field this year, but once Bradford went down that plan went out the window.

My preference would be Teddy then Keenum then Bradford, but to be honest, I don't think there is a bad option. Those are 3 guys who are all top 20 QBs in this league, currently.

[Riddle]

6 minutes ago, Nozizaki said:

Seriously, if it's feasible, I'd love to have both back. I get the feeling Keenum would end up backing up Teddy, but let them decide it on the field. I think the goal was always to try and keep Teddy of the field this year, but once Bradford went down that plan went out the window.

My preference would be Teddy then Keenum then Bradford, but to be honest, I don't think there is a bad option. Those are 3 guys who are all top 20 QBs in this league, currently.

$, unfortunately...I do think there's a scenario where Case prices himself out of what Zim/Speil think he's capable of living up to (hes the big $ man in the group though) and then the team can convince Teddy and Bradford to come back and compete on maybe $12-$15 M contracts IF no significant market develops or they cant get a shot at starting elsewhere. Still sinking nearly $30M into the position, but I may favor this direction. In that scenario, we would make our final decision heading into the 2019 season; or we could punt and reset if it all falls apart. 

[Riddle]

32 minutes ago, disaacs said:

I believe most, if not all, landing spots would give themselves flexibility of an out after a year (or 2) because he doesn't have a track record.  The guys you are talking about all had track records with their team (and were younger when their contracts were signed).  

The example you provided of Kurt Warner is different also because he was a full 2 years younger and didn't have a 5 year track record with a good number of starts under his belt like Case does.  He didn't have the history of mediocrity, because he had no previous history outside of being an upper echelon Arena League QB.  I'd be highly surprised to see Case Keenum get a 5 year deal anywhere, because he'll be 30 years old by the time next season starts.  Proven NFL starters age 28 or younger or HOF level QBs get 5 year deals...30-yr old QBs with only 1 season of any verifiable success do not.  Even Alex Smith at the age of 30 only got a 4-yr deal and he had a far better track record than Keenum.  He will likely get $20M+, but he ain't getting more than 3 years.  But if someone else wants to give him that, more power to them.  I can't see Spielman or Brz doing that.    

Now these are some solid points. I agree that Kurt's not perfectly analogous, but I don't think there is a perfect example for this. What Case is doing at 29 is rare-air. I agree that 5 years would be aggressive for Case, but my previous suggestion of 4 years at ~$85-90M is not. The guarantee would be about $45 M and cover the first two years. After that, the team would have their out. For the reasons that @Cearbhall outlines above, I am of the belief that the QB market will continue to be robust and the valuations will continue to grow, which is why teams will be willing to "pay up" a bit relative to Case's track record. Case could be a late bloomer, or he could be a one year wonder, but either way...he's gonna get his.