What QB Do We Want Going Into 2018?

[CriminalMind]

30 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

Do you honestly think that someone is going to give Keenum a long term contract? No way. 

They’ll sign him to a 2-3 year deal, which will essentially be a one year deal in terms of guaranteed money paid out.

And if that's the offer, then Keenum will just wait until he gets franchised tagged.

The time to extend him reasonably was a couple months ago. He took all the risks, he should be rewarded.

[gopherwrestler]

1 minute ago, CriminalMind said:

And if that's the offer, then Keenum will just wait until he gets franchised tagged.

The time to extend him reasonably was a couple months ago. He took all the risks, he should be rewarded.

I don't see that.

2-3 year around 20M/yr?
Vs.
the tag?

I think he would take the money. No way he will get as low of a offer as what was stated earlier.
 

[CriminalMind]

Just now, gopherwrestler said:

I don't see that.

2-3 year around 20M/yr?
Vs.
the tag?

I think he would take the money. No way he will get as low of a offer as what was stated earlier.
 

If there is little guaranteed money after the 1st year ($20M), then yes he should rightfully turn that down.

With no Case, Vikings have options they don't want to rely on.

[RJWSkol24]

Is there any precedent for someone like Keenum in the modern NFL?  If there is, I cannot think of one.  Closest career arc might be Matt Cassel but he was acquired by the Chiefs via trade.  Real odd that two teams in their respective Conference Championship games have major question marks at QB in the off-season.

[Worm Guts]

4 minutes ago, RJWSkol24 said:

Is there any precedent for someone like Keenum in the modern NFL?  If there is, I cannot think of one.  Closest career arc might be Matt Cassel but he was acquired by the Chiefs via trade.  Real odd that two teams in their respective Conference Championship games have major question marks at QB in the off-season.

Rich Gannon.

[SteelKing728]

1 minute ago, RJWSkol24 said:

Is there any precedent for someone like Keenum in the modern NFL?  If there is, I cannot think of one.  Closest career arc might be Matt Cassel but he was acquired by the Chiefs via trade.  Real odd that two teams in their respective Conference Championship games have major question marks at QB in the off-season.

Rich Gannon

Brian Hoyer

Tyrod Taylor

Jeff Garcia

...maybe these guys are close but Keenum's situation isn't unheard of; more like extremely rare.

 

[RJWSkol24]

1 minute ago, SteelKing728 said:

Rich Gannon

Brian Hoyer

Tyrod Taylor

Jeff Garcia

...maybe these guys are close but Keenum's situation isn't unheard of; more like extremely rare.

 

I am looking more at contact details for someone like him.  Gannon and Garcia are a bit too long ago to draw many conclusions, though from a stylistic/success perspective they're likely the ceiling/ideal for Keenum.  It is his golden opportunity to cash in.  Very curious where numbers fall for him. 

[perrynoid]

8 minutes ago, RJWSkol24 said:

I am looking more at contact details for someone like him.  Gannon and Garcia are a bit too long ago to draw many conclusions, though from a stylistic/success perspective they're likely the ceiling/ideal for Keenum.  It is his golden opportunity to cash in.  Very curious where numbers fall for him. 

Using the following (current) cap numbers as a guide, I don't think an offer in the range of 10-15 million/yr is unreasonable:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/quarterback-salaries-cap-hits-highest-paid-players

[Cearbhall]

3 minutes ago, perrynoid said:

Using the following (current) cap numbers as a guide, I don't think an offer in the range of 10-15 million/yr is unreasonable:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/quarterback-salaries-cap-hits-highest-paid-players

True, if the team signs him to a long term deal they can keep the year one cap hit lower. I don't think salary cap hit is the main concern however. It will be to total amount of guaranteed money, the average per year in the years that the contract essentially guarantees the team will be sticking with him, and the number of team option years after that along with the value of those option years.

To get Keenum's first year cap hit down to $15M, the team likely would have to sign him to something like a 5 year, ~$120M deal with ~$50M guaranteed. It would tie the VIkings to Keenum for three years and give them two option years at around $25M per year.

Keep in mind though, the Vikings haven't been big into back loading contracts. I really don't think their emphasis will be keeping the first year hit low. Given that Keenum's long term consistency is still in question I think the team would prefer something with less total guarantees and a shorter deal. Something like the franchise tag or 

[CriminalMind]

9 minutes ago, perrynoid said:

Using the following (current) cap numbers as a guide, I don't think an offer in the range of 10-15 million/yr is unreasonable:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/quarterback-salaries-cap-hits-highest-paid-players

You would need to filter this for QB salarys when the QB was a true free agent, and not currently under a contract.

Cousins - $23M ... tagged, bet on himself, and got the tag

Mike Glennon - $14M ... what has he shown, compared to Case?

Jay Cutler - $10M ... signed out of retirement a couple weeks before the season?

 

[CWood21]

39 minutes ago, RJWSkol24 said:

Is there any precedent for someone like Keenum in the modern NFL?  If there is, I cannot think of one.  Closest career arc might be Matt Cassel but he was acquired by the Chiefs via trade.  Real odd that two teams in their respective Conference Championship games have major question marks at QB in the off-season.

Honestly, the "closest" comparison I can think of in recent years is Ryan Fitzpatrick a couple of years ago for the Jets, and Keenum blows him out of the water.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&player_id1_select=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&y1=2015&player_id1=FitzRy00&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Case+Keenum&player_id2_select=Case+Keenum&y2=2017&player_id2=KeenCa00&idx=players

I mean, there isn't a single statistic that Keenum doesn't dominate Fitzpatrick in, and Fitzpatrick managed to parlay that into a 1 year, $16M deal from the Jets.  That's his absolute floor, and even then that's not likely to happen.  It's too much of a QB-starved league for him to not get a multi-year deal at a higher AAV.  Sam Bradford's last year in Philadelphia might actually be a better comparison, but again Bradford was worse than Keenum was.  And Bradford got a 2 year, $36M deal out of it but he had a bigger injury concern tied with him.  That's probably a more realistic floor for Keenum contract.  IF I had to take a stab, I'd say something like 3 years, $60M is what you're looking at with Keenum.

[RJWSkol24]

4 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Honestly, the "closest" comparison I can think of in recent years is Ryan Fitzpatrick a couple of years ago for the Jets, and Keenum blows him out of the water.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&player_id1_select=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&y1=2015&player_id1=FitzRy00&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Case+Keenum&player_id2_select=Case+Keenum&y2=2017&player_id2=KeenCa00&idx=players

I mean, there isn't a single statistic that Keenum doesn't dominate Fitzpatrick in, and Fitzpatrick managed to parlay that into a 1 year, $16M deal from the Jets.  That's his absolute floor, and even then that's not likely to happen.  It's too much of a QB-starved league for him to not get a multi-year deal at a higher AAV.  Sam Bradford's last year in Philadelphia might actually be a better comparison, but again Bradford was worse than Keenum was.  And Bradford got a 2 year, $36M deal out of it but he had a bigger injury concern tied with him.  That's probably a more realistic floor for Keenum contract.  IF I had to take a stab, I'd say something like 3 years, $60M is what you're looking at with Keenum.

Good info from you and others, thanks.  3 years, $60 million sounds reasonable and has viability for both sides (Case can cash in while the team can protect itself to a degree if Case's 2017 stands as an extreme outlier). 

[Cearbhall]

5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Honestly, the "closest" comparison I can think of in recent years is Ryan Fitzpatrick a couple of years ago for the Jets, and Keenum blows him out of the water.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&player_id1_select=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&y1=2015&player_id1=FitzRy00&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Case+Keenum&player_id2_select=Case+Keenum&y2=2017&player_id2=KeenCa00&idx=players

I mean, there isn't a single statistic that Keenum doesn't dominate Fitzpatrick in, and Fitzpatrick managed to parlay that into a 1 year, $16M deal from the Jets.  That's his absolute floor, and even then that's not likely to happen.  It's too much of a QB-starved league for him to not get a multi-year deal at a higher AAV.  Sam Bradford's last year in Philadelphia might actually be a better comparison, but again Bradford was worse than Keenum was.  And Bradford got a 2 year, $36M deal out of it but he had a bigger injury concern tied with him.  That's probably a more realistic floor for Keenum contract.  IF I had to take a stab, I'd say something like 3 years, $60M is what you're looking at with Keenum.

I agree with you. 3 years and $60M is about right if the team wants to sign him to something longer than the one year franchise tag. If the team does that, they should add on a couple option years at around $25M+ per year to make it 5 years $110M+. 

[Klomp]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

And speaking out loud here, what's the downside of franchise tagging Keenum?  Obviously, it's not ideal to pay $22M to your QB but gives another half a season before you have to commit big money to him.

I completely agree with this.

[CriminalMind]

Glad to see people coming aboard the "I'm fine with the Vikings tagging Case" train.

It's still the most likely option.