Random Packer News & Notes

[Old Guy]

1 hour ago, pgwingman said:

But of Bakh's $40M cap hit, $11M is base salary, $19M is dead, and $10M is roster bonus. So his 2024 cap hit is really only $21M, which would still be the 3rd highest in the league.

The question in my mind is, what would DB get on the open market if he were released? Assuming he passes a physical and all that, I'd assume that most teams would still want a cheap, short term deal just to offset injury risk.

Would you offer him 10th highest in the league? That's $16M/year

Would you offer him 20th? That's $3M

The LT free agents next spring: 

Tyron Smith, DAL, 32.9 years, $12M in 2023

Duane Brown, NYJ, 38.2 years, $10M in 2023 (backup)

Cornelius Lucas, WAS, 32.3 years, $3M (backup)

Donavan Smith, KC, 30.4 years, $3M

So in my mind, Bakh's value is at the $12M mark. That would be the same as him playing for his roster bonus and a vet minimum base salary. Would he take that to stay here and save the packers $9M? Possible, but if he's going to take that much of a pay cut it might just make sense to ask for a release and see if the Jets are willing to pay more.

20.2 million is base salary; that is 100% savings to the cap if we cut him. 

I'd defer to the cap experts here but if you could put a few void years on his 19 million prorated bonus and get him to take 12 so his cap hit is 19, that would be doable. Give him some per game bonuses to get him up to 15 or 16 in real new money if he plays all the games. In the past Bakh has been unwilling to allow GB to add void years or restructure. That leads me to believe he's out this off season. 

Maybe even add a few years to the deal, which scares the living **** out of me tbh. 

[pgwingman]

18 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

The only issue with what you typed above is...assuming that he passes a physical.

If he were to get a $12M/year offer, my bet would be that it would not be a straight forward $12M.  

Instead it could be $12M earned for playing in games.  So, no higher end bonus at all.

No team is going to give him that much with the injury risk on him.  If he wants it, he will have to play to earn it.

At least that is my feeling.  After all of Rodgers boys failing in NY, I doubt highly that they would give a friendly deal to Bakh just because he wants to go there to play with Rodgers.  Instead I can see them low balling him because of that fact.  Because?  Rodgers is a horrible GM.

So the thing about his roster bonus, it's due on third day of the league year (March). In my mind he doesn't want to see that changed.

So here's the other weird thing. I can't find an offensive linemen contract that's "heavy" on incentives. It's almost always a million or two for reaching a snap count level. So it's hard to say how you're going to structure a heavy incentive deal.

The Jets part is a different question. Rodgers still has them by the short hairs, and I'll bet that by next spring they'll talk themselves back into pursuing someone like DB.

Either way, I'm just trying to figure out the Packers afford DB in 2024. They still have to shed salary and he's one of the largest salaries on the team.

[pgwingman]

6 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

20.2 million is base salary; that is 100% savings to the cap if we cut him. 

I'd defer to the cap experts here but if you could put a few void years on his 19 million prorated bonus and get him to take 12 so his cap hit is 19, that would be doable. Give him some per game bonuses to get him up to 15 or 16 in real new money if he plays all the games. In the past Bakh has been unwilling to allow GB to add void years or restructure. That leads me to believe he's out this off season. 

Maybe even add a few years to the deal, which scares the living **** out of me tbh. 

Yes we would save his base salary and roster bonus if we cut him. So a max $21M savings if we cut him, maybe $7-9 saved if he took a paycut, or $15M in savings if we went with void years.

The void year issue is strange. As I understand it, a player has to agree to adding void year to their contract, and Bakh has been unwilling to agree to it, i think because he is forcing the Packers to make a decision on him. (https://zonecoverage.com/2023/packers/bakhtiaris-contract-puts-pressure-on-his-future-in-green-bay/)

Regardless, I would argue you're correct, he's out this offseason. I'm just curious:

a) What would his salary have to be to make him worth the risk (IMO, around $12-14M)

b) What GB would have to do to accommodate that salary, given the 2024 cap constraints (I think they could swing it, but it pulls money away from the few free agents we would want to resign)

c) If any team would be willing to outbid us for his services (Jets come to mind for obvious reasons, but DAL and KC also have free agent LTs. And and team that acquires him would require a physical, so injury risk could be mitigated)

d) If this is all a moot point given how well Rasheed has played (IMO not yet, but I'll repeat myself again and say that over the last 4 weeks Walker has played starting caliber football. And he does it for $1M/year. So in the end you might be shopping for a backup, not a starter)

[vegas492]

36 minutes ago, pgwingman said:

So the thing about his roster bonus, it's due on third day of the league year (March). In my mind he doesn't want to see that changed.

So here's the other weird thing. I can't find an offensive linemen contract that's "heavy" on incentives. It's almost always a million or two for reaching a snap count level. So it's hard to say how you're going to structure a heavy incentive deal.

The Jets part is a different question. Rodgers still has them by the short hairs, and I'll bet that by next spring they'll talk themselves back into pursuing someone like DB.

Either way, I'm just trying to figure out the Packers afford DB in 2024. They still have to shed salary and he's one of the largest salaries on the team.

Regarding the Jets...I can see them being very tired of Rodgers by the spring of 2024.  We know of his off season/odd stuff.  This is going to be their first real taste of it after the honeymoon.  You know, the fun part, which in their case was a hurricane hitting their island honeymoon retreat.

I feel it can go either way.  

[HighCalebR]

26 minutes ago, pgwingman said:

 

d) If this is all a moot point given how well Rasheed has played (IMO not yet, but I'll repeat myself again and say that over the last 4 weeks Walker has played starting caliber football. And he does it for $1M/year. So in the end you might be shopping for a backup, not a starter)

Need this not perpetuated. He has played like a backup. A backup you can win with. But 100% is still playing like a guy you'd want to get off the field if you have the opportunity. 

[Norm]

12 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

Need this not perpetuated. He has played like a backup. A backup you can win with. But 100% is still playing like a guy you'd want to get off the field if you have the opportunity. 

I don't wanna play the money game at LT either

[pgwingman]

9 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

Need this not perpetuated. He has played like a backup. A backup you can win with. But 100% is still playing like a guy you'd want to get off the field if you have the opportunity. 

Yeah, I'm just looking at the trajectory and perpetuating optimism.

But let me ask you this. Which would you rather have:
 

a) Bakh starting for $12M with Rasheed as a backup, knowing you have to free up another $9M to make it through the offseason.

b) High draft pick starting at LT with Rasheed backing up

c) Rasheed starting while hoping a mid round pick displaces him

[HighCalebR]

2 minutes ago, pgwingman said:

Yeah, I'm just looking at the trajectory and perpetuating optimism.

But let me ask you this. Which would you rather have:
 

a) Bakh starting for $12M with Rasheed as a backup, knowing you have to free up another $9M to make it through the offseason.

b) High draft pick starting at LT with Rasheed backing up

c) Rasheed starting while hoping a mid round pick displaces him

A or B. Easy. If I can take Walker off the field I figure out the rest. He's our worst guy 1v1 in pro. Even if Jones was healthy we can't really use him to full potential anyways because half his reps would be chip and outlet routes. I don't want to have Musgrave chipping before going down the seam, we're giving defenses advantages vs our mismatches to help Rasheed. Hell the first Watson touchdown he doesn't even block anyone, the TE and RB get all the work. (Not really on him because zone blitz but it looks silly.)

Myers has his 1 over set lunge each game. I'll live with that. Runyan has his issues against the top tier or 2 where he needs help, I'd like him replaced but I can live with him starting.

I just don't see the tools that promote much optimism.

Rasheed is getting bulled against some depth rushers, and he doesn't reset his base so he just goes skates. He mirrors ok but guys get his edge with worrying consistency. Has decent hand placement but gets swiped from time to time.  Like I don't see anything to hang your hat on going into a season. Everything is backup level. For sure he wins some reps and dies slow (enough) most reps he is losing but if there's a spot on O I'm looking to upgrade this is it.

[{Family Ghost}]

Aaron Jones and Jaire practicing today.  This is Jones return to practice, but Jaire practiced last week and still didn't play in the game.  No Watson, Savage or Quay Walker today.

[vegas492]

2 hours ago, pgwingman said:

Yeah, I'm just looking at the trajectory and perpetuating optimism.

But let me ask you this. Which would you rather have:
 

a) Bakh starting for $12M with Rasheed as a backup, knowing you have to free up another $9M to make it through the offseason.

b) High draft pick starting at LT with Rasheed backing up

c) Rasheed starting while hoping a mid round pick displaces him

Three answers. 

Heart says a.

Brain says b.

The itch in my loins says c, because it has a mind of it's own and it typically gets the rest of me into trouble.

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, HighCalebR said:

Rasheed is getting bulled against some depth rushers, and he doesn't reset his base so he just goes skates. He mirrors ok but guys get his edge with worrying consistency. Has decent hand placement but gets swiped from time to time.  Like I don't see anything to hang your hat on going into a season. Everything is backup level. For sure he wins some reps and dies slow (enough) most reps he is losing but if there's a spot on O I'm looking to upgrade this is it.

Just want to point out that when Bakh was completing year one of starting, we were saying some of the same things about him.

Not identical, but similar.  In other words, he needed work, too.

I'm for sure still looking for an upgrade, but there has been a lot of growth in Walker's game this year and he's come a long ways from last year.  There might still be a "plus" tackle in there somewhere.

[craig]

3 hours ago, Old Guy said:

..I'd defer to the cap experts here but if you could put a few void years on his 19 million prorated bonus and get him to take 12 so his cap hit is 19, that would be doable. ....

Maybe even add a few years to the deal, which scares the living **** out of me tbh. 

We've got a young roster and are approaching a very brief window of cap relief.  But in no time Love and the currently young players are going to be gobbling up cap space.  I do NOT want to be voiding years into the future.  Bite the bullet now and get it over with, don't slide it forward.  

[OzPackfan]

4 hours ago, Old Guy said:

20.2 million is base salary; that is 100% savings to the cap if we cut him. 

I'd defer to the cap experts here but if you could put a few void years on his 19 million prorated bonus and get him to take 12 so his cap hit is 19, that would be doable. Give him some per game bonuses to get him up to 15 or 16 in real new money if he plays all the games. In the past Bakh has been unwilling to allow GB to add void years or restructure. That leads me to believe he's out this off season. 

Maybe even add a few years to the deal, which scares the living **** out of me tbh. 

Per OTC he has a base salary of 20.2m and workout/game bonuses of 1.3m.

There is no actual roster bonus.

If the Packers are confident he can pass a physical and will be ready to play come September, I can easily see a restructure of his deal with the addition of a void year to reduce his cap charge. Something like this would work for all parties.

- 8m signing bonus split over 2024 and 2025(void year)

- 7m base salary for 2024

- 1.3m gameday/workout bonuses

- 2-3m in NLTBE incentives(these wouldn’t hit the cap until 2025)

This type of renegotiation would reduce his cap charge from 40.58m down to 31.28m.

 

[spilltray]

29 minutes ago, OzPackfan said:

Per OTC he has a base salary of 20.2m and workout/game bonuses of 1.3m.

There is no actual roster bonus.

If the Packers are confident he can pass a physical and will be ready to play come September, I can easily see a restructure of his deal with the addition of a void year to reduce his cap charge. Something like this would work for all parties.

- 8m signing bonus split over 2024 and 2025(void year)

- 7m base salary for 2024

- 1.3m gameday/workout bonuses

- 2-3m in NLTBE incentives(these wouldn’t hit the cap until 2025)

This type of renegotiation would reduce his cap charge from 40.58m down to 31.28m.

 

I just don't see the value when you've already essentially paid this much for nothing. I'm sure at multiple other points they thought the knee would be ok, until it wasn't. I don't want to give him more years or push more money into the future without him having the chance to prove that and there is no way he gets that chance at anywhere close to that cap number. 

I just don't see any way that makes sense. You are basically just moving the hit out a year, when he's gone anyway with the hope he can hold up and give you one more good year. I don't like that bet for a young team with a ton of picks and the potential cap space of moving on.

[Refugee]

5 hours ago, vegas492 said:

Regarding the Jets...I can see them being very tired of Rodgers by the spring of 2024.  We know of his off season/odd stuff.  This is going to be their first real taste of it after the honeymoon.  You know, the fun part, which in their case was a hurricane hitting their island honeymoon retreat.

I feel it can go either way.  

They’re basically all in there. “The Comeback” is their only play after an offseason of big promises blew up in the beginning minutes of the season. The first real test will be whether Hackett is retained. He should be canned but is one of the main pieces that AR wants in place to run the offense the way he sees it. If they ask him to adjust to a new OC after kicking his friend to the curb, we’ll see who’s calling the shots.