incognito_man Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said: Nah I understand it's easier to keep your head buried in the sand Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said: I would put a massive amount of money on detroit not ending up the 2nd best team in the league. So do it, then. Saying you will but not is worthless ha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Penske Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, incognito_man said: So do it, then. Saying you will but not is worthless ha I don't sports bet because I know I would like it way way too much lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgbeethree Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 32 minutes ago, incognito_man said: It's cute you think DVOA is biased toward the Lions I don't think DVOA is biased. Did you watch the game? Immediately after watching that game they decide to play it again. Gun to your head, who are you betting to win the game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said: I don't sports bet because I know I would like it way way too much lol I'll bet you $20 I can get you to bet by the end of the season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Just now, wgbeethree said: I don't think DVOA is biased. Did you watch the game? Immediately after watching that game they decide to play it again. Gun to your head, who are you betting to win the game? I did watch the game and I trust DVOA over my eye test I think it's 50/50 who wins a rematch, would lean KC in KC and DET in DET. They are both really solid teams. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 33 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said: I would put a massive amount of money on detroit not ending up the 2nd best team in the league. How about the #2 seed in the NFC? I think they are in the running for that...and play in a pretty easy division. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgbeethree Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, incognito_man said: I did watch the game and I trust DVOA over my eye test I think it's 50/50 who wins a rematch, would lean KC in KC and DET in DET. They are both really solid teams. I don't get how you would or could use DVOA to form an opinion on the first game of the season but I don't really care that much either and am happy to agree to disagree and move on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Just now, wgbeethree said: I don't get how you would or could use DVOA to form an opinion on the first game of the season but I don't really care that much either and am happy to agree to disagree and move on. I'm not using it to form an opinion on the first game. I'm using it to form an opinion on a game that occurred right now. All evidence suggests Detroit is absolutely an equal to KC right now. They are above them in the best available single metric. They beat them h2h on the road. What's the argument to the contrary? That KC has been better in previous seasons? Not a compelling argument. In the NFL, things change quickly. Best lesson I ever learned years ago is to strongly weight recent, relevant data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R T Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 I know I probably shouldn't comment on this, but doing 1,000 simulations each of home, away and neutral site for Chiefs-Lions. @ Kansas City - Chiefs win 61% of the time with a mean score of 25.48 to 21.67 @ Detroit - Chiefs win 53% of the time with a mean score of 25.60 to 24.34 @ Neutral site - Chiefs win 57% of the time with a mean score of 25.48 to 22.97 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 4 hours ago, incognito_man said: Does Detroit win by even more with all their guys playing that weren't? if you think Shane Zylstra/Denzel Mims/Julian Okwara is a needle mover, props to you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 39 minutes ago, R T said: I know I probably shouldn't comment on this, but doing 1,000 simulations each of home, away and neutral site for Chiefs-Lions. @ Kansas City - Chiefs win 61% of the time with a mean score of 25.48 to 21.67 @ Detroit - Chiefs win 53% of the time with a mean score of 25.60 to 24.34 @ Neutral site - Chiefs win 57% of the time with a mean score of 25.48 to 22.97 Is your simulation a coin flip or something more sophisticated? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 36 minutes ago, squire12 said: if you think Shane Zylstra/Denzel Mims/Julian Okwara is a needle mover, props to you How confident are you that you got everyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coachbuns Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 5 hours ago, incognito_man said: Does Detroit win by even more with all their guys playing that weren't? Glad Detroit is doing well .. they are a decent team for this year and probably next. They should be though as they've had top 5 draft choices in each round for the past 20+ years. They've finally hit on some guys but in a few years the salary cap hell will begin along with finding a new qb. They'd better make hay the next couple of years cuz they'll be back in the bottom half sooner than later. That's not a knock on them .. it's just the cycle and history they've shown overall for years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 47 minutes ago, incognito_man said: How confident are you that you got everyone? Is there a player you think does move the needle to the level of Chris Jones or Kelce? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.