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Cleveland Indians Thread : we might have a nice thing!

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22 minutes ago, FEARtheELF said:

Aaron Judge played a full season at A level at 22 years old with a 28% K rate. Have to remember, had he went to college, this would be his first season of minor league ball. Also, he turned 21 last week, so he may very well see himself in Akron before he turns 22.

He does have risk, but this is in no way the best time to move him.

You don't say "well, look at this outlier, so it will happen with him too!" in prospect evaluation. While it's definitely possible that Benson has put it all together and will be in our OF for 4-5 years in the early 2020's, it's also super possible that his contact/K issues become worse against better pitching in AA or AAA and he stalls out. By that token, now is absolutely the best place so far to move him, as he was a big disappointment his first three years in the organization and would've merited no return. That doesn't mean we SHOULD move him now. It just means that this is the point where his potential value and his current value are most divergent and thus would allow the team to move a promise of potential for current value.

Put it this way. Benson is Matt LaPorta right now. Tons of potential, but we have no idea if he will fulfill it. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. Only time will tell.

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Sounds like it's gonna take Clevinger 2-3 more starts to get straight.

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The series with the Balt makes it very difficult to believe in this team.

With an opportunity to beat up on a bad team the Indians fell flatter than flat and escaped with one win by the skin of their teeth.

But, remarkably, although they blew an opportunity to gain ground on MN they didn't lose much ground.

The next week and the first week after the All Star break likely will be determinative of the team's season.

 

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I’m interested to see if this team makes some deadline deals. If not, this is definitely not a championship caliber roster as it stands.

Also it would help if we would retain our better players going forward for sustainable success, but it is what it is. They let Michael Brantley walk to Houston for $6 million and he is starting in the All-Star game. 

I saw we have Hand, Santana, and Lindor representing. 

Edited by NateDawg

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On 6/28/2019 at 3:44 PM, freakygeniuskid said:

You don't say "well, look at this outlier, so it will happen with him too!" in prospect evaluation. While it's definitely possible that Benson has put it all together and will be in our OF for 4-5 years in the early 2020's, it's also super possible that his contact/K issues become worse against better pitching in AA or AAA and he stalls out. By that token, now is absolutely the best place so far to move him, as he was a big disappointment his first three years in the organization and would've merited no return. That doesn't mean we SHOULD move him now. It just means that this is the point where his potential value and his current value are most divergent and thus would allow the team to move a promise of potential for current value.

Put it this way. Benson is Matt LaPorta right now. Tons of potential, but we have no idea if he will fulfill it. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. Only time will tell.

"You don't say "well, look at this outlier, so it will happen with him too!" in prospect evaluation. "

"Put it this way. Benson is Matt LaPorta right now."

uhm, ok lol

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22 minutes ago, FEARtheELF said:

"You don't say "well, look at this outlier, so it will happen with him too!" in prospect evaluation. "

"Put it this way. Benson is Matt LaPorta right now."

uhm, ok lol

Pretty sure he meant LaPorta as a prospect when we acquired him.

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18 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Pretty sure he meant LaPorta as a prospect when we acquired him.

I get that. Im just laughing at how he said don't use an outlier and compare Benson to him, and proceeded to do the same exact thing.

No, Benson is not going to be Aaron Judge. Any prospect has risk. That's the game you play. But I just don't see how we should be worried about trading a young power hitter that just went 20/20 in half of a season at 20 years old.

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4 hours ago, FEARtheELF said:

"You don't say "well, look at this outlier, so it will happen with him too!" in prospect evaluation. "

"Put it this way. Benson is Matt LaPorta right now."

uhm, ok lol

Dude. It's time to just admit that the guy has great potential and real bust possibility. I'm trying to use an illustration Indians fans will remember (I sure as heck do). If you want another thousand examples, we can roll that way. But I think it's more reasonable to admit there are time when prospects suddenly become good after making a change, and there are times when prospects have pop up seasons and then are never heard from again.

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3 hours ago, FEARtheELF said:

I get that. Im just laughing at how he said don't use an outlier and compare Benson to him, and proceeded to do the same exact thing.

No, Benson is not going to be Aaron Judge. Any prospect has risk. That's the game you play. But I just don't see how we should be worried about trading a young power hitter that just went 20/20 in half of a season at 20 years old.

Because he's 21, is still striking out 30+% of the time and had a big time downgrade in performance on being promoted from low A to high A?

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33 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

Dude. It's time to just admit that the guy has great potential and real bust possibility. I'm trying to use an illustration Indians fans will remember (I sure as heck do). If you want another thousand examples, we can roll that way. But I think it's more reasonable to admit there are time when prospects suddenly become good after making a change, and there are times when prospects have pop up seasons and then are never heard from again.

He does have bust potential.... but why in the world would you trade him just for that reason? He also has big time power potential.

33 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

Because he's 21, is still striking out 30+% of the time and had a big time downgrade in performance on being promoted from low A to high A?

Its been 8 games man... I guess we should trade Bobby Bradley now too after the first week up and his K rate.. Obviously can't adjust to the pitching at the MLB level.

 

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Just now, FEARtheELF said:

He does have bust potential.... but why in the world would you trade him just for that reason? He also has big time power potential.

Its been 8 games man... I guess we should trade Bobby Bradley now too after the first week up and his K rate.. Obviously can't adjust to the pitching at the MLB level.

I was never arguing to trade the guy. I was arguing against you saying that his trade value isn't the highest it's ever been right now (it is) and someone else saying we should call him up right now (he would get murdered by MLB pitching). Now if somebody wants to offer me an established mid-20s starter with 3+ years of control left, I'd listen for sure. But I doubt that is happening.

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3 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

I was never arguing to trade the guy. I was arguing against you saying that his trade value isn't the highest it's ever been right now (it is) and someone else saying we should call him up right now (he would get murdered by MLB pitching). Now if somebody wants to offer me an established mid-20s starter with 3+ years of control left, I'd listen for sure. But I doubt that is happening.

On 6/27/2019 at 2:15 PM, freakygeniuskid said:

I gotta caution you to look at more than just the HR/SB numbers here. I like Benson, but this might actually be the best time to move the guy. He has definitely improved greatly this year. But he is a 21 year old who has been in the system for four years and JUST NOW (in the last couple weeks) got promoted to High A. Which means he's a tad old for the level he is at and hasn't hit the harder transition in the minors yet (A to AA). In addition, his K% is still really, really high and hasn't improved at all throughout his minor league career (32% this year, about the same career). 

I really, really like his potential and want to keep him. Just saying that the guy isn't can't miss at all, he still has significant risk.

These are two different statements.

Yes, his value is higher than it has ever been. He just killed it at Lake County.

No, this is not the best time to move him, if he continues to hit, his value will just continue to grow.

 

What I said was, "He does have risk, but this is in no way the best time to move him." I think as a small market team, you have to hope for lightning in a bottle.

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I'm done dealing with your attempts at semantic hunting using your selective nuance ignoring powers.

Benson is exciting. But he is still super risky. His value is higher than ever right now. In the right deal I wouldn't cry to move him. End of story.

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