The 2018 Kirk Cousins Megathread

[wcblack34]

53 minutes ago, Krauser said:

Cousins has been playing like a top 5 QB. He's in his prime, and has stayed healthy.

He gets extended unless the rest of the year goes very badly.

They can and should still draft a QB in the middle rounds for developmental purposes.

My comment was more directed at the idea that we have to go all in on Cousins, or move on. He’s the guy for the next 5-7, or he’s gone after next season. 

[Krauser]

1 hour ago, wcblack34 said:

My comment was more directed at the idea that we have to go all in on Cousins, or move on. He’s the guy for the next 5-7, or he’s gone after next season. 

Yeah, I agree the decision gets made this offseason. I just think there's basically no decision to make unless Cousins' play falls off a cliff. There's basically no precedent for a team not retaining a QB playing as well as Cousins is, and given his age and health, I can't imagine the Vikings would move on.

A Cousins extension is probably either another 3-year chunk of fully guaranteed money or a 5-year deal that's the team can get out of after 3 years. In either case, he's very likely the Vikings QB1 when healthy through 2023.

[Krauser]

Ben Baldwin (one of the most prominent stats guys writing about the NFL this year, writing mostly for The Athletic) has come up with a new measure of QB efficiency, a composite of EPA and CPOE.

EPA is Expected Points Added -- a per-play score that includes passing and running success, comparable to DVOA and already incorporated in ESPN's QBR measure.  

CPOE is Completion Percentage Over Expectation, which relies on player tracking data to judge the Expected completion percentage according to the difficulty of each specific throw the QB attempted, based on the proximity of pass rushers to the QB when the ball is delivered, how open the receiver is, how far downfield etc, then grades QBs in terms of how many of those throws they actually Completed Over (or under) that Expected baseline.

Ben's come up with a few names for this metric, at one point calling is DAKOTA, when Dak was leading the league. At this point, he's just calling it the Composite Score. Statistically, it seems to be the single best number to evaluate QB performance, even better than QBR or DVOA, and certainly better than the traditional NFL passer rating. It's closest comparison is PFF grades, in terms of predicting the quality of QB play in the following year.

The composite score at this point is not an intuitive number like passer rating, QBR or PFF grades, all of which are scaled around 100. I expect at some point, he'll rework the math to make it more intuitive and easier to understand. But for now, an excellent performance is about 0.20, an average one is around 0.10 to 0.15, and a poor one is under 0.05 (and can even get slightly below zero in especially poor cases).

This score tells an interesting story about the Vikings QB performance over the years, and how well Cousins is doing this year. Here's the history based on what Baldwin has published so far, back to 2009, and limited to QBs with 300+ attempts in a single season. I'll list the score, the Vikings QB, year and rank (among starters) that year.

0.19 - Favre 2009 (4th)
0.06 - Favre 2010 (26th) 
0.01 - Ponder 2011 (29th)
0.07 - Ponder 2012 (23rd)
...none - no Vikings QB had 300 attempts in 2013
0.11 - Bridgewater 2014 (19th)
0.13 - Bridgewater 2015 (15th)
0.16 - Bradford 2016 (7th)
0.17 - Keenum 2017 (5th)
0.16 - Cousins 2018 (16th) -- note, the 16th place finish here reflects an higher overall average for QB play around the league.
0.21 - Cousins 2019 (2nd)

Interestingly, the Vikings QB performance has been steadily trending up since the post-Favre nadir with Ponder's rookie season. 

By this metric, Cousins season this year has been better than Favre's in 2009. Cousins at this point is behind only Ryan Tannehill, who's been tearing it up for the Titans since taking over as starter midway through the year. 

Cousins has been consistently good by the composite score, though this is clearly the best year of his career. Cousins' history as a starter: 

0.18 - Cousins 2015 (5th, behind Wilson, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Dalton)
0.19 - Cousins 2016 (5th, behind Ryan, Prescott, Brees, Brady)
0.12 - Cousins 2017 (14th, closest comparables Wilson, Stafford, Goff, Mariota, Taylor, Prescott)
0.16 - Cousins 2018 (16th, closest comparables Roethlisberger, Newton, Luck, Brady, Mariota, Carr, Prescott, Mullens)
0.21 - Cousins 2019 (2nd, behind Tannehill and ahead of Brees, Carr, Jackson and Wilson)

Here's the 2019 table so far: 

 

 

[Krauser]

Here's another look at Cousins' performance from Baldwin. 

These are graphs of his EPA/play (comparable to QBR). The solid line is median performance across the league. Dashed is very good, 75th percentile. Red dotted line is elite, 90th percentile. He's taking a rolling 300 play average, meaning the most recent half a season is registering on the graph at any given moment: 

By this measure, Cousins is very good to elite for the latter half of 2015 through 2016, average to very good in 2017, average in 2018, below average in late 2018/early 2019, and elite ever since the Packers game this year dropped off the rolling 300 play average (the end zone INT was one of the worst EPA plays of the year). 

[vikingsrule]

So it looks like most were correct to be very critical of Cousins after his 2018 performance. It truly wasn’t good for a number of reasons. 2019 looks so much better but the success has been negated by fielding a bad defense.

[Krauser]

1 minute ago, vikingsrule said:

So it looks like most were correct to be very critical of Cousins after his 2018 performance. It truly wasn’t good for a number of reasons. 2019 looks so much better but the success has been negated by fielding a bad defense.

That graph is just his EPA per play. EPA is heavily influenced by turnovers, which is the main thing that dragged down Cousins' numbers in 2018.

By CPOE that year, he was 8th. So he was still throwing the ball like a top 10 QB.

Also, the 2018 baseline was much higher than in previous years, which pulls the median up and makes Cousins' line on the graph lower by comparison.

Here are a couple of interesting comparisons for Cousins. A year or so ago I used the AirYards metrics to show he was comparable to Ryan and better than Rodgers since 2015. That's also the case by Baldwin's EPA graphs: 

And here are Brees, Wilson and Wentz: 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Krauser said:

Ben Baldwin (one of the most prominent stats guys writing about the NFL this year, writing mostly for The Athletic) has come up with a new measure of QB efficiency, a composite of EPA and CPOE.

EPA is Expected Points Added -- a per-play score that includes passing and running success, comparable to DVOA and already incorporated in ESPN's QBR measure.  

CPOE is Completion Percentage Over Expectation, which relies on player tracking data to judge the Expected completion percentage according to the difficulty of each specific throw the QB attempted, based on the proximity of pass rushers to the QB when the ball is delivered, how open the receiver is, how far downfield etc, then grades QBs in terms of how many of those throws they actually Completed Over (or under) that Expected baseline.

Ben's come up with a few names for this metric, at one point calling is DAKOTA, when Dak was leading the league. At this point, he's just calling it the Composite Score. Statistically, it seems to be the single best number to evaluate QB performance, even better than QBR or DVOA, and certainly better than the traditional NFL passer rating. It's closest comparison is PFF grades, in terms of predicting the quality of QB play in the following year.

The composite score at this point is not an intuitive number like passer rating, QBR or PFF grades, all of which are scaled around 100. I expect at some point, he'll rework the math to make it more intuitive and easier to understand. But for now, an excellent performance is about 0.20, an average one is around 0.10 to 0.15, and a poor one is under 0.05 (and can even get slightly below zero in especially poor cases).

This score tells an interesting story about the Vikings QB performance over the years, and how well Cousins is doing this year. Here's the history based on what Baldwin has published so far, back to 2009, and limited to QBs with 300+ attempts in a single season. I'll list the score, the Vikings QB, year and rank (among starters) that year.

0.19 - Favre 2009 (4th)
0.06 - Favre 2010 (26th) 
0.01 - Ponder 2011 (29th)
0.07 - Ponder 2012 (23rd)
...none - no Vikings QB had 300 attempts in 2013
0.11 - Bridgewater 2014 (19th)
0.13 - Bridgewater 2015 (15th)
0.16 - Bradford 2016 (7th)
0.17 - Keenum 2017 (5th)
0.16 - Cousins 2018 (16th) -- note, the 16th place finish here reflects an higher overall average for QB play around the league.
0.21 - Cousins 2019 (2nd)

Interestingly, the Vikings QB performance has been steadily trending up since the post-Favre nadir with Ponder's rookie season. 

By this metric, Cousins season this year has been better than Favre's in 2009. Cousins at this point is behind only Ryan Tannehill, who's been tearing it up for the Titans since taking over as starter midway through the year. 

Cousins has been consistently good by the composite score, though this is clearly the best year of his career. Cousins' history as a starter: 

0.18 - Cousins 2015 (5th, behind Wilson, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Dalton)
0.19 - Cousins 2016 (5th, behind Ryan, Prescott, Brees, Brady)
0.12 - Cousins 2017 (14th, closest comparables Wilson, Stafford, Goff, Mariota, Taylor, Prescott)
0.16 - Cousins 2018 (16th, closest comparables Roethlisberger, Newton, Luck, Brady, Mariota, Carr, Prescott, Mullens)
0.21 - Cousins 2019 (2nd, behind Tannehill and ahead of Brees, Carr, Jackson and Wilson)

Here's the 2019 table so far: 

 

 

Who ever would've guessed that Tannehill and Cousins would be 1 and 2 on list like above??  If I had bet on that at the start of the season, I think I would be very rich right now...because those would've been some long odds!!!

[JDBrocks]

Scenario - Say the Vikings lose but are competitive in the NFCCG again this year. Stefanski leaves for a HC gig. Do the Vikings still resign Kirk? Should they?

[SemperFeist]

Just now, JDBrocks said:

Scenario - Say the Vikings lose but are competitive in the NFCCG again this year. Stefanski leaves for a HC gig. Do the Vikings still resign Kirk? Should they?

If the Vikings win a playoff game, let alone two, then yes they should, and likely will, re-sign Cousins. 

[vikingsrule]

2 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

Scenario - Say the Vikings lose but are competitive in the NFCCG again this year. Stefanski leaves for a HC gig. Do the Vikings still resign Kirk? Should they?

Depends on how the deal is structured but to get that far in the playoffs, Cousins would have had some good playoff performances, and likely two road wins. I think he’s deserve it at that point, especially if the Vikes could structure it in a way that is favorable to the cap next year.

Edited December 16, 2019 by vikingsrule

[JDBrocks]

Just now, SemperFeist said:

If the Vikings win a playoff game, let alone two, then yes they should, and likely will, re-sign Cousins. 

I think so too. The only thing that worries me is starting over with a new OC. They seem to really have clicked this year, and I don't know that he'd be nearly as comfortable with another guy unless it's Kubiak.

[vikingsrule]

4 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

I think so too. The only thing that worries me is starting over with a new OC. They seem to really have clicked this year, and I don't know that he'd be nearly as comfortable with another guy unless it's Kubiak.

Cousins is used to changes at OC, so I doubt he’s had enough time to get comfortable. I’d run the same system, if Kubiak doesn’t want the job, I’d assume he’d still be a huge influence on the offense regardless. 

[PrplChilPill]

I sign him to an extension no matter what happens in the playoffs or with the coaches. Who are they going to get better? *

 

*assuming health....

[vikingsrule]

4 minutes ago, PrplChilPill said:

I sign him to an extension no matter what happens in the playoffs or with the coaches. Who are they going to get better? *

 

*assuming health....

Eventually they have to draft someone. Other teams manage to do it. Why can’t this organization?

[swede700]

42 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

Eventually they have to draft someone. Other teams manage to do it. Why can’t this organization?

They do draft them...they just are unable to draft the right one.  They've drafted 4 in the Spielman era, including 2 1st rounders.  If you get the right one, you don't have to spend high draft picks or sign or trade for one.  If Teddy hadn't gotten injured, I doubt Kirk Cousins would even be wearing the Vikings' uniform.