Superbowl Or Bust For 2018

[Hunter2_1]

34 minutes ago, JMG5 said:

Fake news. That was just some story the media came up with.

Also, though I partly agree with your point about them viewing him as the missing piece, I think they just fell in love with him as a prospect. They have been wanting to add an elite pass rusher for years and I guess they thought this was their chance to get one (even if he may be a few years away from being elite).

I was in your forum after our game in (September, I guess) and a lot of you guys were riding Payton, saying the best thing about the loss was that it brough Sean a step closer to the boot. I remember arguments along the lines of "He's neglected the defensive side of the ball for years", this was obviously just before Lattimore and Jordan went bezerk. 

[JMG5]

22 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

I was in your forum after our game in (September, I guess) and a lot of you guys were riding Payton, saying the best thing about the loss was that it brough Sean a step closer to the boot. I remember arguments along the lines of "He's neglected the defensive side of the ball for years", this was obviously just before Lattimore and Jordan went bezerk. 

That's because he had neglected that side of the ball. Sean annoys a lot of Saints fans, but that doesn't mean his job was at risk. He is way too close to the owner and GM to ever be fired. He will have a job here until he decides to leave and most Saints fans know that. 

[stl4life07]

I’m intrigued in the prospect Davenport but it’s not fake news that the Saints made the big move up to get him just because they are in “win now” mode. Brees isn’t getting younger and he is closer to retirement than he is playing another handful of years. I thought too the Saints saw teams like the Rams do what they did this offseason by being aggressive to get better, the Vikings were aggressive and the Eagles was too and got better. The Saints meanwhile were striking out on potential moves this offseason. So they were aggressive in the draft.

What strikes me as odd is Brees signed a 2yr deal, the Saints gave up an additional 1st round pick to move into the top half of the 1st round to draft Davenport which has never happened for a team trading up to grab a defensive end. They took a raw player who it may take at least 2yrs just for him to reach his full potential. Now while some might say he doesn’t need to be elite now for the Saints to succeed, I agree, but at the same time it’s not a given Davenport even reaches that potential. He might just be a good player his entire career. Teams just don’t trade all the way up for defensive ends. 4x in the last 20yrs for Jerome McDougle, Derrick Harvey, Damione Lewis, and Brandon Graham. Outside of Graham, nobody on that list jumps out. Graham isn’t even elite. He is just a very good player.

So the move the Saints made is what organizations who don’t know what they are doing normally make. The Saints are in “win now” mode but at what cost? In the past 5+ years the Saints had one great draft which was last season. Even in 2012 when they drafted Jordan and Ingram in the 1st round, couldnt we all agree Ingram was looking like a bust for his first 4 seasons? So it’s not like the Saints have a great history of drafting. So I’m not going to give them the benefit of the doubt with trading and giving up so much for a raw guy with a high ceiling. I think if you swing big the Saints should’ve tried hard to go after Chubb. If not then stay put at 27 and take Landry who I think could be better than Davenport both now and in the long run if he is healthy. But that’s just my opinion.

[stl4life07]

I’ll also add that sometimes the best moves are the ones that a team doesn’t make. In 2014 we all know the Rams drafted Robinson and Donald in the 1st round. Robinson is a bust and Donald is looking like a future HOFer. What some don’t know is Fisher/Snead tried the trade back into the 1st round to get Zach Martin. Reports were they called the Ravens to see about their pick. Martin went to the Cowboys who was picking ahead of the Ravens. Many thought Jerry would take Manziel. Had Martin got past Dallas and the Rams were able to make that deal they would’ve given up their 2015 1st round pick which turned out to be...you guessed it, Todd Gurley. As great as Martin is, I’d rather have Gurley who is the centerpiece of everything McVay wants to do on offense. Gurley has changed the way teams view backs now in the draft. After Gurley went in the top 10, we have seen Zeke, Fournette, McCaffrey, and Barkley all go in the top 10 in the following years. So my point is, I’m sure the Rams would’ve been fine with Martin but with Gurley the Rams were the best offense in the NFL last season. 

So with the Saints, I’m interested to not only see how Davenport pan out but next year’s draft, who the Saints could’ve taken had they kept their pick. Ironically, next year’s draft class is loaded on the DL. 

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Might have to say New Orleans after their two first round picks on Davenport move. I wouldn't have said them before such move, as they're only a few months removed from wanting the HC out through poor performance/neglect. However, nothing signals "we want it NOW" more than a mortgaging (of sorts) pick. They clearly considered him the missing piece. 

I was going to say Rams, as any time a team does this, it also signals "we're coming for this NOW".

LAR has one key acquisition only signed for 1 year and who isn’t likely a candidate to be extended (Suh) and 2 guys in need of extending (Joyner and Cooks) immediately.   With 60M in cap space they can get them done and look to lock up Gurley / Peters if they continue to excel (and in Peters’ case, get their act together).  

But their best shot to win is this year.   Guys like Whitworth and Sullivan who upgraded their OL won’t keep playing at the same level as 2017 (but that contract really was so team friendly for both guys it’s impossivle to complain).   

As for NO their amazing draft class is cheap for 3 more years and 4 for Lattimore / Ramczyk.   Trading up for Davenport was more about not wasting this window and getting 3 full years of team contention without an obvious hole.   I don’t think I’d be there in terms of Davenport as a player to give up 2 1sts but I do understand the reasoning.    Might as well increase your chances for 3 years than hope you get a pass rusher this year or next.    Hindsight being 20-20 I agree that I’d have just popped Landry and called it a day.   Of course that’s completely hindsight as I had Landry as a top 15 guy (but realized Davenport was going to go ahead of him) so him being there at NO’s spot wasn’t that foreseeable and certainly no lock.  I’m still stunned teams needing pass rush didn’t pop him in the 20’s TBH.  I’m a sucker for overall BPA but he fit that to me and need for some teams there.   

 

[Uncle Buck]

Saints - While it's true that they did win a Super Bowl in the last decade, they probably also have the least time left with their HOF quarterback.  IMO, he has a maximum of two years left in the league, and certainly a maximum of 2 years of elite play left.  It could be less than that when it comes to elite play at his age.  Add in the fact that they traded away next year's first round pick for a player who should be good, but who will have high expectations placed on him just because of the price they paid for him.  If the Saints don't win it all soon, it could be a while before they can draft another QB to replace Brees.

Steelers - Again, it comes down to the quarterback.  Big Ben has already talked about retiring, so it makes you wonder how much his heart is in it any more.  They need to strike while the iron is hot when it comes to Ben.

Patriots - They are possibly a surprise to see on this list because of the success they have had.  However, you have to consider the standard they have set for themselves, along with the fact that, as good as Brady has been, eventually, his age will catch up with him and it wouldn't surprise me to see his play fall off a cliff before too long.  Add in the rumors of locker room dysfunction, and the B & B train may come off the tracks sooner rather than later.  Finally, they made the massive blunder of trading Garropollo and they have nothing left to replace Brady when he leaves.  They, more than any team on this list is in "win now" mode.

Vikings - They put big expectations on themselves with the Kirk Cousins signing, but even if they don't win it all this year (and I don't think they will), they actually opened up a good 3 year window for themselves by signing Cousins.  They have drafted well, and should only lose one or two of their defensive stars at the most.  They might be able to find a way to sign all of them.

Rams - After this offseason, the Rams are this year's "Dream Team".  They had a lot of success in 2017, but they are a young team, with a very good, young quarterback and a very young coach.  They have high expectations, but they also have what should be the largest window left of the teams on this list.

 

[Breesus mode]

16 hours ago, JMG5 said:

Fake news. That was just some story the media came up with.

Also, though I partly agree with your point about them viewing him as the missing piece, I think they just fell in love with him as a prospect. They have been wanting to add an elite pass rusher for years and I guess they thought this was their chance to get one (even if he may be a few years away from being elite).

Cam Jordan wants a word with you.

[JMG5]

12 minutes ago, Breesus mode said:

Cam Jordan wants a word with you.

You know what I meant. They wanted to get him a partner. 

[Breesus mode]

46 minutes ago, JMG5 said:

You know what I meant. They wanted to get him a partner. 

Lol I know, just screwing with you.

[Hunter2_1]

18 hours ago, Broncofan said:

LAR has one key acquisition only signed for 1 year and who isn’t likely a candidate to be extended (Suh) and 2 guys in need of extending (Joyner and Cooks) immediately.   With 60M in cap space they can get them done and look to lock up Gurley / Peters if they continue to excel (and in Peters’ case, get their act together).  

But their best shot to win is this year.   Guys like Whitworth and Sullivan who upgraded their OL won’t keep playing at the same level as 2017 (but that contract really was so team friendly for both guys it’s impossivle to complain).   

As for NO their amazing draft class is cheap for 3 more years and 4 for Lattimore / Ramczyk.   Trading up for Davenport was more about not wasting this window and getting 3 full years of team contention without an obvious hole.   I don’t think I’d be there in terms of Davenport as a player to give up 2 1sts but I do understand the reasoning.    Might as well increase your chances for 3 years than hope you get a pass rusher this year or next.    Hindsight being 20-20 I agree that I’d have just popped Landry and called it a day.   Of course that’s completely hindsight as I had Landry as a top 15 guy (but realized Davenport was going to go ahead of him) so him being there at NO’s spot wasn’t that foreseeable and certainly no lock.  I’m still stunned teams needing pass rush didn’t pop him in the 20’s TBH.  I’m a sucker for overall BPA but he fit that to me and need for some teams there.   

 

How long until Goff's rookie contract ends, and how much cap hit can they expect on Gurley? Might be hard to replace Whitworth and any other leavers if all that happens at once. I assume they still need to get in a linebacker, as well? As for NO, for me it kind of depends on Brees. 4 more years of cheap elite rookies (as of 2017) but they wouldn't want Brees to retire in that span. Not that I think he will. That info makes their draft even stranger then. They didn't have to surrender a 2019 first for Davenport if they have a few shots lined up yet.

[Hunter2_1]

15 hours ago, Uncle Buck said:

Patriots - They are possibly a surprise to see on this list because of the success they have had.  However, you have to consider the standard they have set for themselves, along with the fact that, as good as Brady has been, eventually, his age will catch up with him and it wouldn't surprise me to see his play fall off a cliff before too long.  Add in the rumors of locker room dysfunction, and the B & B train may come off the tracks sooner rather than later.  Finally, they made the massive blunder of trading Garropollo and they have nothing left to replace Brady when he leaves.  They, more than any team on this list is in "win now" mode.

 

 

My personal opinion is that you're right, this probably is the last year of Brady and Belichick (Brady seems less angry when he loses, seems to be more in control - and that scares me...) but their draft says otherwise. No immediate replacement, even though they had 5 separate chances to draft Jackson and/or Rudolph. If they didn't fancy either, fine, but they also could have made moved to get into the top 10. Then, of course, they draft an OL that was the hardest to beat in college. Kind of suggests they're looking to secure Brady for a couple more years yet. You could argue that out of the 5 you name, Pats looked to the future more than any of them in the draft.

But also, when is BB NOT on win now mode? It's been a year since he won the SB, he's probably due one....jk, but you know what he's like. He had his hands tied with the Jimmy thing. He couldn't keep him with the money and playing time he was after whilst TB was playing the way he was. Everyone makes that trade, I think.

[SBLIII]

1 hour ago, Hunter2_1 said:

My personal opinion is that you're right, this probably is the last year of Brady and Belichick (Brady seems less angry when he loses, seems to be more in control - and that scares me...) but their draft says otherwise. No immediate replacement, even though they had 5 separate chances to draft Jackson and/or Rudolph. If they didn't fancy either, fine, but they also could have made moved to get into the top 10. Then, of course, they draft an OL that was the hardest to beat in college. Kind of suggests they're looking to secure Brady for a couple more years yet. You could argue that out of the 5 you name, Pats looked to the future more than any of them in the draft.

But also, when is BB NOT on win now mode? It's been a year since he won the SB, he's probably due one....jk, but you know what he's like. He had his hands tied with the Jimmy thing. He couldn't keep him with the money and playing time he was after whilst TB was playing the way he was. Everyone makes that trade, I think.

I agree about the win now mode. I don't know if it is BB and TB last year it very well could be. But either way Pats needed a dynamic RB and OT badly so that was a good move. Also a slot corner that does not get burned on a regular basis.

 

Unless you have a future superstar QB on your hands it was not worth taking a QB imo because this roster is not good enough to win with another QB except Rodgers maybe. So the Pats need to add talent and they started that.

 

Also the question is are you more likely to win a Super Bowl with Mason Rudolph, Lamar Jackson in the next 10-15 years or this year with TB getting help on the OL and RB? I think it's this year more likely than the other 10-15 years combined. So a good move.

 

Pats are in win now mode but they are also making sure to add talent to be a good team a few years down the road with a new QB and McDaniels. Have to be great in all areas and if the Pats draft well in the next 2-3 drafts and sign some difference makers in the FA in 2020/21 with the cap room they will have they will be good again.

 

 

[43M]

18 hours ago, Uncle Buck said:

.Steelers - Again, it comes down to the quarterback.  Big Ben has already talked about retiring, so it makes you wonder how much his heart is in it any more.  They need to strike while the iron is hot when it comes to Ben.

Not that this is off base, but Ben recently said he wants to play at least another 3-5 years.

Obviously that can change at any time, but I think it comes down to how well his health and play hold up.      He stayed healthy all last year, and late in the season he was throwing the ball as well as he ever has....so time will tell.

[Soko]

4 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

How long until Goff's rookie contract ends,

He’s got two years plus his 5th year option. Essentially 2018, 2019, and 2020. 

4 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

and how much cap hit can they expect on Gurley?

Depends if it’s pre or post Le’Veon Bell/David Johnson. You’re going to see $14M-$15M IMO.

4 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Might be hard to replace Whitworth and any other leavers if all that happens at once.

They apparently like Noteboom for that, it you ask Rams fans.

4 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

I assume they still need to get in a linebacker, as well?

Proven ones, yes. But again, they like a couple rookies. 

The bigger cap eater will be Donald.

 

[Hunter2_1]

They'll be fine for a few years then.