Why Josh Rosen Isn’t the Quarterback You Think He Is

[Ozzy]

7 hours ago, Da_Ducktator said:

 

Backed down a bit after a report about Rosen falling on draft day backed up my argument, eh?

Also, it goes to show you how blind some people are. If you actually read the original post, look at the numbers, and look at the videos, there is much more problematic with Rosen's game than simply mobility. And it's not that he lacks mobility (though it's certainly not a strong suit), it's that he is HORRENDOUS when forced to throw on the move. When Rosen is unable to have his body completely in sync with a pass, it comes down to all arm talent when making a throw (those off-platform throws), and there is a glaring amount of throws on tape in those situations when the ball completely misses his target. Why? Because his arm isn't strong enough to put the ball where it needs to go when he isn't allowed to deliver with a perfect set-up. Do you really fail to see the problem in that?

Add-on terrible 3rd down numbers that put him into a grouping that has a 7 percent success rate and the fact that his record has struggled mightily. I know somebody else in this thread was trying to bail out Rosen on this matter because of his surrounding talent. Well, his LT is about to go 1st round, his tight end (granted he got hurt and only played five games) is a future 1st rounder, and he had a WR in Jordan Lasley that will be drafted at some point and has a starting skill-set for the next level. Not to mention, his center will be drafted, and Darren Andrews and Austin Roberts likely get camp invites. Also, Jim Mora and the Bruins were 29-11 in the first three years under Mora. I don't think Mora is a great coach by any means, but do you really think it was Rick Neuheisel who set them up for success those first few years with Mora? Their worst season before Rosen under Mora was 9-5 and they rattled off back-to-back 10-3 years before Rosen took over. Darnold had a pretty good defense across the street, but his offensive line was bad and his best wide receiver ran a 4.7 at his Pro Day. Ronald Jones was basically all Darnold had last year, and he still got them into a New Year's day bowl.

 

Also, something I didn't look at before until it was brought up to me yesterday on Twitter, is that Rosen was awful in the red-zone as well. I am going to take a look at how that compares to past QB classes, but the redzone arguably requires the most in terms of decision-making and arm strength. Tighter windows and less field to work with so fitting the ball in precisely and making the right decisions is key. Last year, Rosen's QB rating was 18 points outside of the top 100 in the country, he tied for the nation's most INT's, and he completed only 47.8 percent of his passes. The year before, he completed just six of 22 pass attempts (27.3 percent) with a 105.29 QB Rating.

I agree, and just to compare the recruiting classes of Josh Rosen at UCLA and Josh Allen at Wyoming.  Yeah one had a little more talent to work with technically than the other.  Yes it is not always the QBs fault but guess what, that kind of expectation comes with the position.  

 

UCLA recruiting classes:

2015, 12th ranked nationally, 2nd in the Pac-12

2016, 13th ranked nationally, 2nd in the Pac-12

2017, 20th ranked nationally, 4th in the Pac-12

 

 

Wyoming recruiting classes:

2015, 113th ranked nationally, 8th in the Mountain West

2016, 116 ranked nationally, 12th in the Mountain West

2017, 99th ranked nationally, 8th in the Mountain West

 

 

I do not follow recruiting rankings that much, and yes UCLA does not have these amazing talented WRs or RBs but they have talent to a degree and like you said UCLA has multiple players who will be drafted or at least get a shot in the NFL.   Rosen won almost nothing with them and as a team lead them to nothing, so I guess that means it is not laughable he wants to be the winningest QB in the history of the NFL, sure.  But he does not have to go work at McDonald's if the NFL does not turn out so he is good to go regardless.  

 

 

 

 

 

[Kip Smithers]

1 hour ago, Da_Ducktator said:

Once again, an ugly grouping for Rosen to be apart of. 

He also has the most TDS.

Cherry picking stats is awesome. Just because one guy views align with yours doesn’t make it right

[Chiefer]

16 minutes ago, Kip Smithers said:

He also has the most TDS.

Cherry picking stats is awesome. Just because one guy views align with yours doesn’t make it right

But will the TDs translate?

[goldfishwars]

Appreciate all the effort with this one Duck. Watched a bunch of Rosen over the weekend and he ended up being my favorite of a good crop this year. This class definitely has something for everyone.

[Broncofan]

FWIW Duck, while I'm still high on Rosen because his strengths are the ones that translate most to NFL success, I tip my cap to the work done in the first 3 posts.    Even if I don't agree with the conclusions, all we can ask is for takes to be supported with actual work and analysis.   It's certainly better than guess work, or character assumptions, or using team-based arguments to predict individual performance.

[bananabucket]

His annoying smugness cements his status as the next great one.

[Da_Ducktator]

42 minutes ago, Kip Smithers said:

He also has the most TDS.

Cherry picking stats is awesome. Just because one guy views align with yours doesn’t make it right

If I was cherry picking stats, why would I even list the touchdowns?

TD's go into QB rating. The fact he still had the second-lowest QB rating in the red zone despite that should say something. The INT's are problematic and the completion percentage is bad. And to state this once again, he went 6/22 (27.27%) in the red zone in 2016.

(Also, he had the most pass attempts in the red zone among this group, perhaps another reason why he has the most TD's...)

EDIT: Additionally, it seems as if you're implying that I am pulling these opinions from the tweet I included in that post. Well, that is my Twitter account (as I've stated elsewhere in this thread), and I have not seen anybody criticize Rosen's game as harshly as I do, and certainly not with the information backing of game film and statistics that I've provided. 

[mission27]

4 hours ago, bananabucket said:

His annoying smugness cements his status as the next great one.

This guy gets it

[Chwf3rd25]

5 hours ago, Ozzy said:

I agree, and just to compare the recruiting classes of Josh Rosen at UCLA and Josh Allen at Wyoming.  Yeah one had a little more talent to work with technically than the other.  Yes it is not always the QBs fault but guess what, that kind of expectation comes with the position.  

 

UCLA recruiting classes:

2015, 12th ranked nationally, 2nd in the Pac-12

2016, 13th ranked nationally, 2nd in the Pac-12

2017, 20th ranked nationally, 4th in the Pac-12

 

 

Wyoming recruiting classes:

2015, 113th ranked nationally, 8th in the Mountain West

2016, 116 ranked nationally, 12th in the Mountain West

2017, 99th ranked nationally, 8th in the Mountain West

 

 

I do not follow recruiting rankings that much, and yes UCLA does not have these amazing talented WRs or RBs but they have talent to a degree and like you said UCLA has multiple players who will be drafted or at least get a shot in the NFL.   Rosen won almost nothing with them and as a team lead them to nothing, so I guess that means it is not laughable he wants to be the winningest QB in the history of the NFL, sure.  But he does not have to go work at McDonald's if the NFL does not turn out so he is good to go regardless.  

 

 

 

 

 

Last year UCLA's defense was ranked 122nd out of 128 teams in the FBS.

Josh Allen and Wyoming was ranked 23rd

 

[Chwf3rd25]

https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/sports/greg-cosells-draft-analysis-josh-rosen-refined-perhaps-best-qb-class-151629623.html?__twitter_impression=true

Rosen is Greg Cosell’s QB1

[Kip Smithers]

9 hours ago, Da_Ducktator said:

If I was cherry picking stats, why would I even list the touchdowns?

TD's go into QB rating. The fact he still had the second-lowest QB rating in the red zone despite that should say something. The INT's are problematic and the completion percentage is bad. And to state this once again, he went 6/22 (27.27%) in the red zone in 2016.

(Also, he had the most pass attempts in the red zone among this group, perhaps another reason why he has the most TD's...)

EDIT: Additionally, it seems as if you're implying that I am pulling these opinions from the tweet I included in that post. Well, that is my Twitter account (as I've stated elsewhere in this thread), and I have not seen anybody criticize Rosen's game as harshly as I do, and certainly not with the information backing of game film and statistics that I've provided. 

I am not referring to you.

And since when was college passer rating a thing?

My whole point you can use a lot stats both ways to support an argument for and against Rosen. That’s why College stats matter quite little to me. Film is what mostly matters. Now you have backed up your opinion with visual evidence so kudos to you but by no means is it definitive. Correct me if im wrong, but the guy you referenced used a play or two to reject the notion that Rosen goes through progressions? 

[Ozzy]

8 hours ago, Chwf3rd25 said:

Last year UCLA's defense was ranked 122nd out of 128 teams in the FBS.

Josh Allen and Wyoming was ranked 23rd

 

Let us wait and see just how many of those defenders are actually drafted in the NFL.  

 

Wyoming has had 3 players drafted since 2015. a RB, C and LB and no one higher than a 5th rounder.  On that defense currently maybe Wingard will be a decent player at safety or be moved to LB but will see, and maybe Granderson or some others but only time will tell.  I need to see a little bit more of them.  

 

 

UCLA thought in 2016 Kenny Clark was drafted at DT 1st round, Myles Jack was drafted at LB 2nd round, Aaron Wallace was drafted in the 7th at LB and they have had 5 offensive players drafted that year as well I did not include.  

Then in 2017 they had Tak McKinley drafted in the 1st round at DE, Fabian Moreau drafted in the 3rd at CB, Vanderdoes drafted in the 3rd at DT, Jayon Brown drafted in the 5th at LB.  And in terms of UDFA they 6 of them notably Ishmael Adams CB, Deon Hollins LB, Randall Goforth S.  

 

And this year Kenny Young LB will be a mid to late rounder potentially, Jacob Tuioti-Mariner DL could be a mid to late round pick, same as Jaleel Wadood S and Darren Andrews WR and Lasley WR have a chance to be drafted late maybe or be a UDFA, Austin Roberts TE, Kolton Miller OT of course is the best of these guys listed and Quessenberry C.  

 

Then in future years Jamabo at RB, Theo Howard at WR, Caleb Wilson at TE, Andre James OT, Ricky Wade at DE, Jordan Wilson TE, Jaelan Phillips DE and Darnay Holmes CB and I am sure some others.

 

 

And back to the defensive stats, sure but based on that Minnesota had a top 30 defense as well.  When honestly that defense was nothing great and they lost their last two games 70-0, and if you take into account three of the last four games they lost those by 103-10.  So just like recruiting rankings at times, does no always tell the entire story of course and I would not call Wyoming this great defensive team.  But they do have a damn good head coach who knows how to play smart ball control football, control the clock and keep that defense off the field and play sound in all phases of the game no doubt.  I also would not call Fresno St a great defensive team who was top 15 ranked in D last year, even UTSA was top 5 defensively, sure Davenport is a great player but if they play better competition then things might be a little different, that could be said about Wyoming and their unit potentially will see what they do this next year.

 

 

 

 

[vikestyle]

58 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Let us wait and see just how many of those defenders are actually drafted in the NFL.  

 

Wyoming has had 3 players drafted since 2015. a RB, C and LB and no one higher than a 5th rounder.  On that defense currently maybe Wingard will be a decent player at safety or be moved to LB but will see, and maybe Granderson or some others but only time will tell.  I need to see a little bit more of them.  

 

 

UCLA thought in 2016 Kenny Clark was drafted at DT 1st round, Myles Jack was drafted at LB 2nd round, Aaron Wallace was drafted in the 7th at LB and they have had 5 offensive players drafted that year as well I did not include.  

Then in 2017 they had Tak McKinley drafted in the 1st round at DE, Fabian Moreau drafted in the 3rd at CB, Vanderdoes drafted in the 3rd at DT, Jayon Brown drafted in the 5th at LB.  And in terms of UDFA they 6 of them notably Ishmael Adams CB, Deon Hollins LB, Randall Goforth S.  

 

And this year Kenny Young LB will be a mid to late rounder potentially, Jacob Tuioti-Mariner DL could be a mid to late round pick, same as Jaleel Wadood S and Darren Andrews WR and Lasley WR have a chance to be drafted late maybe or be a UDFA, Austin Roberts TE, Kolton Miller OT of course is the best of these guys listed and Quessenberry C.  

 

Then in future years Jamabo at RB, Theo Howard at WR, Caleb Wilson at TE, Andre James OT, Ricky Wade at DE, Jordan Wilson TE, Jaelan Phillips DE and Darnay Holmes CB and I am sure some others.

 

 

And back to the defensive stats, sure but based on that Minnesota had a top 30 defense as well.  When honestly that defense was nothing great and they lost their last two games 70-0, and if you take into account three of the last four games they lost those by 103-10.  So just like recruiting rankings at times, does no always tell the entire story of course and I would not call Wyoming this great defensive team.  But they do have a damn good head coach who knows how to play smart ball control football, control the clock and keep that defense off the field and play sound in all phases of the game no doubt.  I also would not call Fresno St a great defensive team who was top 15 ranked in D last year, even UTSA was top 5 defensively, sure Davenport is a great player but if they play better competition then things might be a little different, that could be said about Wyoming and their unit potentially will see what they do this next year.

 

 

 

 

Since you're such a big fan of Josh Allen, you probably agree that guys get drafted high because of elite traits and not just college production. 

Using that line of thinking, maybe UCLA has a bunch of guys on defense who have far superior traits to those on Wyoming, but Wyoming has guys who are better college football players. Obviously, guys like Jack and Clark were productive, but a lot of players get drafted because they are big or fast or can jump high. Just because UCLA had better athletes doesn't mean they had a better defense.

[Chwf3rd25]

2 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Let us wait and see just how many of those defenders are actually drafted in the NFL.  

 

Wyoming has had 3 players drafted since 2015. a RB, C and LB and no one higher than a 5th rounder.  On that defense currently maybe Wingard will be a decent player at safety or be moved to LB but will see, and maybe Granderson or some others but only time will tell.  I need to see a little bit more of them.  

 

 

UCLA thought in 2016 Kenny Clark was drafted at DT 1st round, Myles Jack was drafted at LB 2nd round, Aaron Wallace was drafted in the 7th at LB and they have had 5 offensive players drafted that year as well I did not include.  

Then in 2017 they had Tak McKinley drafted in the 1st round at DE, Fabian Moreau drafted in the 3rd at CB, Vanderdoes drafted in the 3rd at DT, Jayon Brown drafted in the 5th at LB.  And in terms of UDFA they 6 of them notably Ishmael Adams CB, Deon Hollins LB, Randall Goforth S.  

 

And this year Kenny Young LB will be a mid to late rounder potentially, Jacob Tuioti-Mariner DL could be a mid to late round pick, same as Jaleel Wadood S and Darren Andrews WR and Lasley WR have a chance to be drafted late maybe or be a UDFA, Austin Roberts TE, Kolton Miller OT of course is the best of these guys listed and Quessenberry C.  

 

Then in future years Jamabo at RB, Theo Howard at WR, Caleb Wilson at TE, Andre James OT, Ricky Wade at DE, Jordan Wilson TE, Jaelan Phillips DE and Darnay Holmes CB and I am sure some others.

 

 

And back to the defensive stats, sure but based on that Minnesota had a top 30 defense as well.  When honestly that defense was nothing great and they lost their last two games 70-0, and if you take into account three of the last four games they lost those by 103-10.  So just like recruiting rankings at times, does no always tell the entire story of course and I would not call Wyoming this great defensive team.  But they do have a damn good head coach who knows how to play smart ball control football, control the clock and keep that defense off the field and play sound in all phases of the game no doubt.  I also would not call Fresno St a great defensive team who was top 15 ranked in D last year, even UTSA was top 5 defensively, sure Davenport is a great player but if they play better competition then things might be a little different, that could be said about Wyoming and their unit potentially will see what they do this next year.

 

 

 

 

Why does it matter when the players were drafted if the team was performing poorly?  You were trying to make the argument that Rosen lost despite playing on a decent team, especially in comparison to Josh Allen. I just showed you how despite the better recruiting talent at UCLA, the coaching staff at UCLA put out the 122nd Defense last year while Wyoming has the 22nd ranked defense. I know this is hard for you to understand because you grew up on a farm but that means that it was significantly harder for Josh Rosen to win than Josh Allen because Rosen’s defense was so much worse.

[Da_Ducktator]

8 hours ago, Kip Smithers said:

I am not referring to you.

And since when was college passer rating a thing?

My whole point you can use a lot stats both ways to support an argument for and against Rosen. That’s why College stats matter quite little to me. Film is what mostly matters. Now you have backed up your opinion with visual evidence so kudos to you but by no means is it definitive. Correct me if im wrong, but the guy you referenced used a play or two to reject the notion that Rosen goes through progressions? 

I believe a lot of Rosen's "progression" throws are pre-snap reads/built into the play. He seems to struggle mightily with post-snap reads and making the correct decision with the football. Why? Because there is a lot of times when you see Rosen look one way, turn and immediately throw it blindly. He expects a play to go a certain way before the snap; if I look right, it'll pull the linebacker so I can just turn and throw it. There is a lot of instances on tape (the last INT versus Arizona and some throws against Colorado I already referenced that show that). The other rationale I have to believe he struggles with reading a defense is how bad he seems to be at identify blitzes pre-snap.

Here are four more throws I recall from two other games that I didn't show anything from before that shows this as well.

UCLA had just ran a similar look literally a couple plays ago. Three WR's to the top of the screen, outside WR screens while the two inside guys block. The first time, the Stanford DB's bit so Rosen is just assuming the same thing is going to happen. However, they clearly don't. They sit back because something on film must have suggested to them that they were going to try it. But, Rosen is assuming they are going to bit hard again, so he pumps to the screen and throws it downfield despite the fact the DB's backed off and one of them is right on his target (hits the guys back, incomplete).

Missed touchdown here. Play action, the tight end is clearly running a route just to try and pick anybody that comes across (you can see he is looking at the DB's even as he turns and is trying to back up into them). The WR is running a corner route. The concept is to have the WR running the corner pull back the DB's on the right while the TE screens off anybody trying to get over from the middle and just quickly pop it to the FB and if not score, at least get really close to the goalline. Well, the DB's don't back off much, Lasley has wide open space in the corner of the end zone, but Rosen is blindly following the play, not reading the defense. It goes for just a few yards when it could have been six.

Here, Rosen looks right first because he wants to hold the single high safety over there. They are going for a big play by him trying to hold the single high and having the receivers at the bottom come close, nearly crossing, with the hope the DB's get mixed up, but that's not what transpires. Rosen looks that way, the deep throw is clearly not open, and the underneath guy is wide open. But Rosen wants to stick to the play and still tries to stay with it so he can throw it downfield and gets stripped sack.

Final one is the INT against USC. This is a bad throw, bad decision. Tight end to the bottom and a crosser from the top are going to try and pull the safeties over. Rosen looks there first to try and pull the safety, but you can see before Rosen even throws the ball, that the safety knows what's coming, backtracks to cut off the route up the seam, and Rosen throws it anyways. This was the design pre-snap; look right and if all goes to plan, the guy up the seam should be open. But all doesn't go to plan, and Rosen doesn't pick up on that. It's a blind "progression" throw. It looks like he is going through reads, but I think a lot of it on tape with Rosen is these built in progressions.

A lot of people have hyped Rosen up as pro-ready saying that he can read defenses and go through progressions. But the important thing to be able to do in the NFL is identify what defenses are doing pre (I don't see Rosen making many changes at the LOS) and post-snap. There are so many throws where it looks like Rosen is just following what the play was drawn up to do. And sure, it looks pretty sometimes when it works because he displays these subtle head nodes and moves his eyes. But when they don't work, he will still blindly throw it, displaying to me that he has a hard-time reading defenses and making the correct decisions.