Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2018 (Tampa Bay at 1)

[BleedTheClock]

I'm just not a big Leighton Vander Esch fan. I think he'll be solid, but won't ever be the MF'er that you want a 1st round linebacker to be.

 

Connor Williams was an ok pick there, but it's not spectacular. It's right about where I thought he should go. Most people are championing that as some sort of steal. I don't see that.

 

Wasn't a big Michael Gallup fan. He's got strong hands, but he doesn't separate from anyone and runs a pedestrian route tree. He's not going to gain separation in the NFL. Dak better hit him right in the chest plate every time.

 

Dorance Armstrong and Bo Scarbrough are players I think you struck gold on in terms of value. I think both could become starter in time...or in Scarbrough's case, on a different team where Elliot wasn't there.

 

 

But overall, I did not think their first three picks were special. None of them were horrendous, but I thought they went a little underneath the value on each of those players. I am apparently the only person that doesn't think Vander Esch is a superstar tho. So maybe he does end up being "that dude."

[Broncofan]

12 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

I'm just not a big Leighton Vander Esch fan. I think he'll be solid, but won't ever be the MF'er that you want a 1st round linebacker to be.

 

Connor Williams was an ok pick there, but it's not spectacular. It's right about where I thought he should go. Most people are championing that as some sort of steal. I don't see that.

 

Wasn't a big Michael Gallup fan. He's got strong hands, but he doesn't separate from anyone and runs a pedestrian route tree. He's not going to gain separation in the NFL. Dak better hit him right in the chest plate every time.

 

Dorance Armstrong and Bo Scarbrough are players I think you struck gold on in terms of value. I think both could become starter in time...or in Scarbrough's case, on a different team where Elliot wasn't there.

 

 

But overall, I did not think their first three picks were special. None of them were horrendous, but I thought they went a little underneath the value on each of those players. I am apparently the only person that doesn't think Vander Esch is a superstar tho. So maybe he does end up being "that dude."

Ultimately, that's where it comes down to.

Personally, I love Gallup, I think he's about the 4th or 5th WR in this class - but knew his athletic size & skill profile would knock him down.   Getting in mid-3 was a steal IMO - I would have been through the roof happy if we had popped him at 3.71 and gone in a different direction at 2.40 instead of Sutton - don't see a huge gap there, versus the gap between the other CB/TE's left after Oliver & Goedert got popped.

I'm OK with Williams, but do think it certainly was at value, at worst.   

So then it really comes down to LVE.   I know a lot of ppl are worried about the neck - without all the info, all I can say is that if he's cleared by 20+ teams and the Combine, I'm going to guess it's a 1-level narrowing of the canal, and not a multi-level (which is a career-ender).  I know ppl see the ghosts of LB's who can't stay on the field in DAL, but you have to go by the current case, and not by past cases.   

I had DAL in my top 8 drafts this year, when I tiered them.   But I love LVE & Gallup, and I think the Mike White pick is inspired because you need a good backup QB nowadays, and that's his floor (no, not convinced Cooper Rush is a thing).   And I think Cedrick Wilson really helps their slot WR down the line.     For where they were drafting, other than if they had Goedert fall to them at 2.51 (and I get DAL says Williams was their guy, I'll take their word for it, but I'd have popped Goedert in a heartbeat), it was about as good a result as it could have been (other than if they took Landry at 1.19, but as we saw, DAL wasn't alone in that evalutation - which I think is a mistake, but if they don't go Landry, LVE was totally a great call at 1.19 IMO).  Armstrong I'll have to take a closer look at, I'll admit I skimmed the EDGE tiers after the top 3, given the possibility we were going Chubb. 

Edited May 10, 2018 by Broncofan

[Da_Ducktator]

12 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Best Thing About This Draft:

The first three picks were really good and there were players who can compete for spots picked later too. Assuming the neck situation turns into a nothing, which might be a big assumption we don’t really know, the Vander Esch pick is exactly what they needed in the first. With Anthony Hitchens out of town and the general health concerns around their other linebackers, he can come in and contribute right from the get-go. At 6’4 and 240, he’s got dream level size and room to develop as a pass-rusher to add an extra string to his bow. But it’s that high level athleticism which blends with an instinctive ability to be in the right spot at the right time which makes him very enticing.

I like LVE (ultimately gave him my last 1st round grade), but it was mainly based purely on potential and athleticism. LVE actually has rarely showed good instincts, I thought that was one of his biggest weaknesses. He has cat-like read-and-react abilities which is why he was able to rack up so many tackles, but there is a reason he only had 5.5 TFL this year before the Oregon game and that's because he doesn't instinctively fly around and blow up plays. Only 4.26% of his tackles came behind the LOS before the bowl game, compared to somebody with great instincts like Roquan who over 10% of his tackles came behind the line.

However, in Dallas, he has time to learn the game better and hopefully become more instinctual since Sean Lee can rarely last a full season, let alone much longer in general. The Marinelli defense plays to LVE's strengths though, allowing his fluid athleticism and strong experience in a zone scheme (Boise is zone heavy) flourish.

[JBURGE]

1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

I wouldn't have put Dallas ahead of #20 to be honest. Not nearly as high on their draft as @goldfishwars is. 

I probably wouldn't have them that low, but Dallas certainly wouldn't have been in my top 10. Probably around league average for me

[BleedTheClock]

28 minutes ago, Calvert28 said:

I think most of the negative reviews are from people who listen to Mayock or some other fool that thought WR and TE should have been our biggest draft need. And knocked on us because of that. At least from the ones that were negative, those were the complaints. 

I didn't care what your needs were. I just didn't like the players that much. They weren't one of the worst drafts, but I wouldn't have had them in the top 10. And I also don't care about LVE's injury stuff. There is no way to predict that or access proven medical information, so I don't even bother factoring that into my evaluations. Who knows what his health will be...certainly not any of us armchair scouts.

 

In terms of LVE's game, I don't think he's built for pro style offenses. He's amazing defending the spread similar to how Kiko Alonso was at Oregon. He flies around, disrupts passing lanes, and can chase sideline-sideline. But when you get guys blocking DOWN to him, he's going to get washed. He's not very good against power run teams, which is 80% of the NFL. I do think he'll have value covering TE's though, as he has ideal size and athletic traits to handle that. But I am less than impressed with his overall instincts, especially on interior run concepts like power/iso. It's not even a violence/speed to the football thing...it's the little nuances...like slow playing or working over the top of down blocks. Or playing with general pacing to shoot gaps, which is something Roquan does at an unbelievable level. He's almost too fast for his own good sometimes. It means he'll get a lot of splash plays where he looks like the Hulk, but it's also what kills a lot of undersized "fly around" defenses: gap control.

[goldfishwars]

5.  New York Jets

Pre-Draft Needs:

QB, DL, OL, EDGE

What They Had Heading into the Draft:

1. 3

3. 72

4. 107

5. 157

6. 179

7. 235

 

What They Had Leaving The Draft:

1. 3. Sam Darnold  [ QB ] USC

3. 72. Nathan Shepherd  [ DT ] Fort Hays State

4. 107. Chris Herndon  [ TE ] Miami (FL)

6. 179. Parry Nickerson  [ CB ] Tulane

6. 180. Folorunso Fatukasi  [ DT ] Connecticut

6. 204. Trenton Cannon  [ RB ] Virginia State

 

Best Thing About This Draft:

The New York Jets have to give up a bunch of two's to get to 3 way before opening night and still ended up with the consensus best quarterback in the draft, when they were perfectly willing to take whatever was left over. Even a week before draft day, it was not a remotely realistic possibility that Sam Darnold would be available at 3. The Browns weren’t going to overlook him and neither were the Giants, and yet here we are. Outside of a few brief flickers of optimism, the Jets have never had a consistently good quarterback in my lifetime. That is both insane, but also great as a Patriots fan - although I now fear that run is at the end.

Darnold has the modern day NFL skill-set with underrated athleticism and rare sheen to his playing persona that tells you he’s built for the biggest stages. There are technique hiccups to iron out particularly with his sloppy footwork, but some of his throws at USC were magical. You can't teach that. Those highs were higher than any other quarterback prospect in this class, but there were lows too and they extended for stretches of games this past year. Let’s put that down to him being 20 years old for a second. He's landing in a good situation with Jeremy Bates preference for a West Coast passing attack being a nice fit for his skill-set and unlike Mason Rudolph, there's a veteran quarterback who has been bought back more or less specifically to help bring him along. 

Worst Thing About This Draft:

Edge. I know it’s a defensive scheme that looks to build pressure rather than look for a consistent pass-rush from the outside – but maybe even a late round shot on someone would have sufficed. Just someone with something a little different to what the edge setters they have onboard. Elsewhere they might have looked at the offensive line, but that's nitpicking. They've got a handsome looking roster for the first time in a while. 

Late Round Gem:

Parry Nickerson – I honestly think he’s one of the best slot corners in this draft, so I’ve no idea how he lasted all the way to round 6. He's a little slight, but it’s not like he tested badly - in fact he literally ran a 4.32 forty time and you see that speed on tape. He’s aggressive, can challenge the football in the air and he can pick passes off too. I think he is exceptionally good value here. 

What Else?

Nathan Shepherd got a lot of tongues wagging at the Senior Bowl after some dominant early practice performances before he was forced out with injury. He’s raw coming out of a tiny school, but he’s got a very enticing size and speed combination going on. Chris Herndon too, is good value in the 4^th round. Herndon has a well-rounded game with the athleticism to hit big plays with and was a little lost in the mix whilst recovering from an MCL injury. If that injury has cleared up before camp, there’s no reason why he can’t compete for a starting job. Folo Fatukasi was also good value in the 6^th round. He moves well for a big nose and has enough natural power to get into the mix on early downs. Trenton Cannon is a smaller explosive back and was CIAA Offensive Player of the year, which must count for something. He could make the team as a kick returner in his first season and has the ability to enhance his role from there if he can hit the gym. 

[SDotNova]

Been waiting all week for the Jets writeup. I think you nailed it. I read your analysis of the Jets draft last year and it was spot on.

The no o-line and Edge is a head scratcher but it’s becoming clear that our GM is going for value and picking the highest player on his board. There were no good spots to take o-line. The argument for an edge can be made with their 4th round pick though. 

In any event, great work putting your thoughts out there to be critiqued. Never an easy task.

Edited May 10, 2018 by SDotNova

[MikeT14]

2 hours ago, Calvert28 said:

I think most of the negative reviews are from people who listen to Mayock or some other fool that thought WR and TE should have been our biggest draft need. And knocked on us because of that. At least from the ones that were negative, those were the complaints. 

I didn't think it was bad personally, but certainly not Top 6. Just middle of the pack - somewhere 12 to 18.

[Broncofan]

I'm not as high on the other picks except Fatusaki, but if the Jets got the 1.1 pick and best QB in this class with Darnold at 1.3, and didn't have to give up more than Sheldon Richardson's last year of cheap play, and 2 2nds, then it has to be an A draft.   If you don't believe in Darnold, you don't grade it as highly, but if you do (and I do), I agree this has to go top 5.

Edited May 10, 2018 by Broncofan

[goldfishwars]

4. Baltimore Ravens 

Pre-Draft Needs:

TE, OL, WR, QB

What They Had Heading into the Draft:

1. 16

2. 52

3. 83

4. 118

5. 154

6. 190

6. 215

7. 238

 

What They Had Leaving The Draft:

1. 25. Hayden Hurst  [ TE ] South Carolina

1. 32. Lamar Jackson  [ QB ] Louisville

3. 83. Orlando Brown Jr.  [ OT ] Oklahoma

3. 86. Mark Andrews  [ TE ] Oklahoma

4. 118. Anthony Averett  [ CB ] Alabama

4. 122. Kenny Young  [ LB ] UCLA

4. 132. Jaleel Scott  [ WR ] New Mexico State

5. 162. Jordan Lasley  [ WR ] UCLA

6. 190. DeShon Elliott  [ S ] Texas

6. 212. Greg Senat  [ OT ] Wagner

6. 215. Bradley Bozeman  [ C ] Alabama

7. 238. Zach Sieler  [ DE ] Ferris State

 

Best Thing About This Draft:

Your team playing a bunch of turgid football? Draft a bunch of players on cheap contracts for the foreseeable. Ozzie’s gone out with a bang here, magicking up 11 picks to replenish a roster that is still working through a transition but suddenly looks a whole lot deeper at key spots since the season finished.

Outside of that, it’s the anti-Joe Flacco Lamar Jackson right? **** Cass was complaining about low attendances last season, blaming everything but the lousy product the Ravens put out on the field. The whole team has had terrible luck with injuries but they’ve also been unwatchable. Joe Flacco’s quarterback play has gotten more and more conservative and seems to have quietly played himself out of town. Lamar is not just a playmaker with his feet, he’s showed generational ability on the move which is a feat that has been a little too easily dismissed. But, it’s also a skill-set that’s difficult to sustain in the NFL. Yes, the Ravens will probably have to tailor their offense to build around what he does best, but he’s run a Bobby Petrino offense with NFL route concepts so that stuff is both true and a little overblown. It's not a coincidence Marty Mornhinweg was responsible for Mike Vick's best year in Philly and it's not a coincidence that the other offensive mind in Balitmore, Greg Roman, did his best work with Colin Kaepernick. And it's not a coincidence RGIII was signed as a back-up in the off-season. This is a good spot for Lamar and the product the Ravens will be putting out on the field sometime soon.

Worst Thing About This Draft:

I can't get my head around risking losing Lamar Jackson to draft Hayden Hurst at 25. I mean, Hurst is a fine player - but I can't imagine staring at my board at 25 and feeling like the 25 year old tight end being the dude you just couldn't miss out on. Elsewhere, I don’t know, I’m not so crazy about the Jaleel Scott pick at 132 and, to a lesser extent, the Jordan Lasley selection at 162. I know Scott had a bunch of highlight reel plays at New Mexico State, but he looked slow and leggy at the Senior Bowl. Perhaps he can become a red zone jump ball specialist at best in the NFL, but one pick ahead of J'Mon Moore feels wrong. Lasley is an explosive receiver and is coming off a big year at UCLA, but the drops and off-field are a kinda off-putting.

Late Round Gem:

DeShon Elliott – He was pegged as early pick at the start of the process, a nice box safety would should be available on day two. So it was odd to see him slide all the way to 190 with a whole bunch of smaller names picked ahead of him. He has some limitations through tightness, but he’s physical and plays with intelligence. Given a role similar to how Tony Jefferson is used would make the most of his skill-set. They're actually pretty similar players. 

What Else?

There’s a lot, starting with Hayden Hurst who comes into the league with a high floor, he’s athletic and can block a little. Already 25 years of age he needs to hit the ground running. I liked the Orlando Brown pick in the 3^rd, that felt about where he would land after a disastrous combine showing. The tape is still solid and it shows him getting the job done, usually by just engulfing everything around him. It’s a really nice touch he landed on his dad’s team too. Baltimore need depth at tackle, they keep finding and developing players but none of them can stay healthy.

Ozzie’s fetish for tight ends (is it worse than Belichick’s?) continued in the 3^rd round with the oversized slot Mark Andrews, he’s an athletic mismatch weapon you can split out and send down the seams. Ozzie’s other fetish for Bama prospects continued with the Anthony Averett selection. He’s a smaller, fast and twitchy slot corner not too dissimilar in size and skill-set to Tavon Young who showed plenty of promise before his ACL tear. The Ravens have had their fair share of injuries at corner, but there’s a deep crop there now.

They needed to get some help for CJ Mosley at linebacker and I guess that’s what Kenny Young is. He was little talked about during the draft process, but was a bright spark on a bad UCLA defense and can do a bit of everything. Greg Senat is a nice athletic bit of clay, a former basketball player with easy movements. He needs to hit the weight room, but could be something good to look forward to in a year or so. The Ravens have gotten more out of less. Bradley Bozemon was a so-so interior prospect, he plays above his athletic limitations and has some flexibility at guard or center. He could find himself starting with no obvious starter pencilled in at center after Ryan Jensen left to Tampa Bay. Zach Sieler is a small school pass rusher I know little about other than he's the dude on the other end of a touching video where Ozzie let him know that he was the selection he would ever make. He'll always have that if nothing else.

 

 

[bucsfan333]

TOP THREE!!!!

[HTTRDynasty]

Whoa, that video hit me in the feels.  And I don't even like the Ravens. 

[drd23]

You're a bit higher on the Ravens draft than I am, mostly because I hated the Hayden Hurst pick.  I also wasn't a fan of the Kenny Young pick and felt that it was a big reach in the 4th round.

I also think that the off-field concerns around Jordan Lasley seem overblown

[berlin calling]

nice write up! i have small hopes the WR drafted will amount to anything, given the Ravens history. and obviously the draft will be judged by the future of LJ... i am very sceptical he'll be the QBOTF in Baltimore and expect him to go the RGIII way out.

hope i am wrong obviously, but i just can't share the optimism of most folks in the Ravens forum. probably am used to bad quarterbacking by this team so much i just can't imagine somebody playing electrifying football for once.

 

[goldfishwars]

3.  Green Bay Packers

Pre-Draft Needs:

WR, EDGE, DB, LB

What They Had Heading into the Draft:

1. 14

2. 45

3. 76

4. 101

4. 133

5. 138

5. 172

5. 174

6. 186

6. 207

7. 232

7. 239

 

What They Had Leaving The Draft:

1. 18. Jaire Alexander  [ CB ] Louisville

2. 45. Josh Jackson  [ CB ] Iowa

3. 88. Oren Burks  [ LB ] Vanderbilt

4. 133. J'Mon Moore  [ WR ] Missouri

5. 138. Cole Madison  [ G ] Washington State

5. 172. JK Scott  [ P ] Alabama

5. 174. Marquez Valdes-Scantling  [ WR ] South Florida

6. 207. Equanimeous St. Brown  [ WR ] Notre Dame

7. 232. James Looney  [ DE ] California

7. 239. Hunter Bradley  [ LS ] Mississippi State

7. 248. Kendall Donnerson  [ OLB ] Southeast Missouri State

2019 1^st round pick from the Saints

 

Best Thing About This Draft:

This is a draft for additional size, speed and athleticism, clearly something they felt they needed. Among his very first moves during a draft as GM of the Green Bay Packers, Brian Gutekunst selected two first round corner prospects and prised a 2019 1^st round pick out of the Saints. That is extremely solid work. That should set them up for years at corner, with last year’s 2^nd rounder Kevin King still on the team and Tramon Williams returning from Cleveland. Jaire Alexander is an uber aggressive and competitive trash talking cornerback who can play outside or in the slot. He played on an island more often than not in Louisville and he's also got bonus ball skills which make him a constant threat at the back end. Speaking of ball skills, Josh Jackson was taken in the 2^nd round when most thought he would go somewhere in the middle of the first. His USP is his ability to take the ball away, whilst there’s perhaps a question around the fit in Pettine’s scheme – he's certainly got the size to make it work and that playmaking ability remains exciting.

Worst Thing About This Draft:

Everyone expected the Packers to take an edge rusher with Clay Matthews getting up there in age, but it looks like it’s going to be more of the same there next year. Edge rusher isn't the golden goose position in Pettine's scheme, so I can see why they preferred to focus on defensive backs as he likes to create pressure through creative blitzes and needs corners who can hold up on the back end. Matthews could then be released as an inside blitzer more often. 

Late Round Gem:

Equanimeous St. Brown  - One of the mysterious fallers in this year’s class, I don’t think it was off-field related from what I’ve heard. Whilst the production didn’t always match the physical talent at Notre Dame, at 6’5 with legitimate deep speed, he could become that deep speed threat on the outside for a team that’s re-tooling at receiver.

What Else?

Oren Burks had the kind of workout at the combine that landed him in the 94.9^th percentile amongst NFL linebackers and had everyone rushing back to the tape. And, the tape is actually not at all bad. Whilst many athletic hybrid marvels were taken to project what they could become, Burks was already lining up at linebacker, safety, in the slot and as a designated pass-rusher. He's already been used as a multiple positionless defender and that's how I think he'll continue to be used. I like J’Mon Moore selection in the 4^th round, he’s another bigger receiver at 6’3 and 210 pounds. He's not a burner, but more of a larger slot who tested incredibly well outside of a slower forty time including an insanely good 3 cone of 6.56. That fluidity and suddenness shows up on film in his route running and his ability to separate in crowded areas.

Cole Maddison was announced as a guard despite playing tackle at Washington State. That makes sense, he sort fits the mold of a functionally sound Packers linemen who have been selected later and come through the ranks to become contributors. JK Scott can boom some kicks and he’s built like a linebacker, was generally seen as a solid 2 to Michael Dickson’s 1 in a good quality punter draft. At 6’4, Marquez Valdes-Scantling was mild surprise in the 5^th, but clearly was part of a plan to get deeper and bigger at wide receiver. There’s going to be an open competition for places there this year. He’s never been particularly productive at NC State or USF, but his 4.37 speed makes for an exciting package to work with.

James Looney turned some heads at the combine, putting together a workout that put him in the 93^rd percentile amongst NFL defensive linemen. He never reached that peak at Cal, but could be useful defensive line depth. We also have a long snapper in Hunter Bradley, I can confirm his snaps are long. I hope so at least. Kendall Donnerson was the only edge prospect taken, right at the end of the draft. It looks like he’s been drafted entirely based on an insane workout where put up a sub 4.5 forty and a 40 inch vertical. Clearly there are some rare tools to work with.