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turtle28

Alex Smith had the highest completion % on play-action passes in 2017

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Good stuff. Hopefully with the addition of Guice, we can have some threat of a running game - at the least - and Smith can once again have one of the highest completion percentages on play-action passes in 2018.

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Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, mar29020 said:

checkdown charlie still isnt better then kirk

He was the best downfield passer in the nfl last year too. He wasn’t all check downs. And I don’t know how anyone can call Alex Smith a check down Charlie when last year Kirk’s top targets were Chris Thompson, Jamison Crowder and Vernon Davis. Every qb checks down to a RB, TE or slot WR when his downfield wrs are covered or if he gets pressured. Even the elite QBs do it a lot like Brady, Brees, Ben, Rivers, Ryan etc. The only QB who I don’t see check down a lot is Aaron Rodgers, he probably takes the most chances downfield of any qb in the nfl and I guess Stafford too.

Edited by turtle28

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1 hour ago, mar29020 said:

checkdown charlie still isnt better then kirk

then Kirk what?  :P 

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20 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

 And I don’t know how anyone can call Alex Smith a check down Charlie when last year Kirk’s top targets were Chris Thompson, Jamison Crowder and Vernon Davis. 

Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce? Let’s not kid ourselves Alex Smith was never confused with Marino in terms of downfield passing. Sure, Andy Reid found ways for Smith to get the ball deep occasionally but Andy Reid doesn’t work here and Gruden is no Andy Reid 

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2017 was an anomaly for Alex Smith. In 2016, Smith attempted “8.16 percent of Smith’s throws traveled more than 20 yards in the air, the third-lowest figure in the league, according to Cian Fahey’s Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue. (Only Bradford and Jared Goff went deep less often.) He attempted 489 passes in 2016, so that means he made 40 deep throws over the entire season.”  https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/14/16305088/alex-smith-sam-bradford-week-1-deep-ball-tendencies

This pattern is very consistent with his previous 12 years.

In 2017 this changed a bit, but not much over the course of the season and he did attempt more long throws but well below the league median. 

so which Smith will we see, the one he was up until 2017- Checkdown Charlie,  or the one he was in 2017? I believe it has been effectively argued by several including @Woz that 2017 was a career year for Smith.

Lots of variables go into the number of attempts downfield, the offensive system, wide receivers, running game and of course offensive blocking. Andy Reid is an offensive genius. When he gives up on Smith like he did and let’s not forget another quarterback we brought in whose passes as the Redskins QB popularized the term- Wormburners, it gives me a lot to be concerned with.

Its really silly to argue what he’s (Smith) is going to do in 18 because way too many new variables, but as a betting man and if I had to wager- It would be that he returns to his career mean. 

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6 hours ago, bigdog44 said:

Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce? Let’s not kid ourselves Alex Smith was never confused with Marino in terms of downfield passing. Sure, Andy Reid found ways for Smith to get the ball deep occasionally but Andy Reid doesn’t work here and Gruden is no Andy Reid 

I just don’t know why that matters. That’s like not giving Kirk credit for playing well in 2015 & 16 because he was throwing to Djax, Garcon, Crowder, Reed and Thompson. I don’t remember anyone crapping on Kirk because he was throwing to great weapons, or Big Ben, or Brees, or Rodgers or Brady and his weapons.

Smith still completed those passes and he was accurate while doing it, it shows up on film too. 

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6 hours ago, Doc Draper said:

2017 was an anomaly for Alex Smith. In 2016, Smith attempted “8.16 percent of Smith’s throws traveled more than 20 yards in the air, the third-lowest figure in the league, according to Cian Fahey’s Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue. (Only Bradford and Jared Goff went deep less often.) He attempted 489 passes in 2016, so that means he made 40 deep throws over the entire season.”  https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9/14/16305088/alex-smith-sam-bradford-week-1-deep-ball-tendencies

This pattern is very consistent with his previous 12 years.

In 2017 this changed a bit, but not much over the course of the season and he did attempt more long throws but well below the league median. 

so which Smith will we see, the one he was up until 2017- Checkdown Charlie,  or the one he was in 2017? I believe it has been effectively argued by several including @Woz that 2017 was a career year for Smith.

Lots of variables go into the number of attempts downfield, the offensive system, wide receivers, running game and of course offensive blocking. Andy Reid is an offensive genius. When he gives up on Smith like he did and let’s not forget another quarterback we brought in whose passes as the Redskins QB popularized the term- Wormburners, it gives me a lot to be concerned with.

Its really silly to argue what he’s (Smith) is going to do in 18 because way too many new variables, but as a betting man and if I had to wager- It would be that he returns to his career mean. 

I’d be shocked if he goes back to what he was before 2017 because of the offense he’ll be in and the weapons around him. Gruden likes to push it downfield more too so, he’s going to be coaching Smith to do that and in those years where Smith didn’t complete as many downfield passes he didn’t have a lot of downfield weapons and was restricted by an offensive system which was run first and didn’t push the ball downfield much.

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Posted (edited)

Meaningless stat is meaningless.

For one, he's on a different team now. With different plays, different terminology, and different coaches.

But more to the point, what am I supposed to determine with that stat? What was the down and distance on these throws? How much yardage did he get? Did he get a first down? Is there something that Alex Smith does in the play action that makes him that much better than every other QB in the league in play action? If he was running play action on 3rd and 6, and completed a bunch of 4 yard dump offs, why do I care about completion percentage on play action?

 

The season before, Dak Prescott was number one: https://thelandryhat.com/2017/05/30/dak-prescott-play-action-pass-completions/

Cousins was third. Alex Smith was no where to be found.

Edited by Slateman

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3 hours ago, turtle28 said:

I’d be shocked if he goes back to what he was before 2017 because of the offense he’ll be in and the weapons around him. Gruden likes to push it downfield more too so, he’s going to be coaching Smith to do that and in those years where Smith didn’t complete as many downfield passes he didn’t have a lot of downfield weapons and was restricted by an offensive system which was run first and didn’t push the ball downfield much.

What weapons?

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11 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

What weapons?

Guice, Thompson, Reed (if healthy), Davis, Crowder and Richardson are a nice set of weapons. I’m not ready to give up on Doctson either so it’s not like he’s got crap stacked around him. Not to mention he’s certainly playing behind a better OL. 

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49 minutes ago, Slateman said:

Meaningless stat is meaningless.

For one, he's on a different team now. With different plays, different terminology, and different coaches.

But more to the point, what am I supposed to determine with that stat? What was the down and distance on these throws? How much yardage did he get? Did he get a first down? Is there something that Alex Smith does in the play action that makes him that much better than every other QB in the league in play action? If he was running play action on 3rd and 6, and completed a bunch of 4 yard dump offs, why do I care about completion percentage on play action?

 

The season before, Dak Prescott was number one: https://thelandryhat.com/2017/05/30/dak-prescott-play-action-pass-completions/

Cousins was third. Alex Smith was no where to be found.

So, Alex gets better and we’re just supposed to ignore it?

It’s an important stat because if we run a lot of play action - which we do - he should be successful when Gruden calls those plays.

The offense we run is very similar to the offense that he was in while in Kansas City, Alex has stated that.

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It’s pretty amazing to me that as a Redskins fan we can’t post good things and say good things about our Qb without getting bombarded with negativity. 

I just don’t get it. Kirk is gone and he isn’t coming back. 

So, why not just want the qb we have now to succeed? Why hate him and think that he’s going to be awful before he even takes a snap for us?

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17 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

So, Alex gets better and we’re just supposed to ignore it?

It’s an important stat because if we run a lot of play action - which we do - he should be successful when Gruden calls those plays.

The offense we run is very similar to the offense that he was in while in Kansas City, Alex has stated that.

Get better at what?

Did it occur to you that the reason he was so good at play action last year was because he had the best rushing game in football? That two year in a row, the QB that leads in your cherry picked stat also had the leading rusher in the league that year?

No one is hating, but we're not hero worshiping him like some others. Alex Smith is a downgrade at QB. Literally everyone NFL front offices acknowledges this. Most people who watch football would acknowledge this.

Alex Smith is a good QB who doesn't stretch the field, but also doesn't turn the ball over. He's successful when he has a high quality cadre of support personnel, particularly at the "skill" positions.

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