Top 10 WR

[INbengalfan]

On 5/22/2018 at 10:42 PM, Crickett said:

 

I feel a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of Bengals fans cried out and were suddenly silenced.  I fear something terrible has happened. 

You will join us, or die.

[JAF-N72EX]

6 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

@JustAnotherFan who cares how he gets his production? He's PRODUCTIVE. Nobody's calling Jarvis Landry a deep threat; we're calling him a damn good receiver. He consistently gets open, consistently catches the football, and can put it in the paint in the red zone. Excellent blocker, excellent route runner, and great after the catch. I don't know if he's a top 10 player, but he's certainly right outside of that range if he's not in it already.

So if a QB completes 70% of his passes but only averages 4 or 5 yards per attempt or a RB rushes for 1,000 yards but only averages 3 yards per carry it don't matter because it's still production right? But hey, to each his own I guess...

Constantly gets open? Can put it in the paint in the red zone? Excellent route runner? Stop it. 

He is not a good route runner and he is not as productive as his numbers suggests either. As I showed above, of his 206 total catches in the last 2 years, exactly 50% of them(103) have came from only 3 different routes, most of which coming on a screen(22%).

Landry is a perfect example of how raw stats can be deceiving. Even his 200 catches is not impressive when you look at the big picture and his lowly career averages of 10.1 yards per reception (despite already having 570 targets in only 4 years-4th most in history), is very indicative of this. 

He is strictly a slot guy who's numbers do not match that of a top WR, at all and the Browns will soon find that out.
 

[Scout]

23 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

I disagree. Your metrics use raw stat lines but his stat lines do not match his ability, at all because most of his stats come from short routes. Last season, nearly 50% of his 112 catches came on a 4 yards or less and he only average 6.1 yards per target for the year. 

Furthermore, his ability to run routes properly and effective are also limited to shorter routes and that goes beyond this past season as well. This goes back to even 2016 when we averaged, a higher but still low 8.3, yards per target

And just to put all of this into better perspective, here's an image showing all of his routes last season vs the average WR. 

 

Now here is a breakdown of his routes from 2016 and you will further see exactly what I mean about his stats not matching his ability. 49 of his targets came on a screen pass just as an example.

Love these breakdowns. What about % of go routes? 

 

Also, do you have anything on RB and TE targets on routes? 

 

Really appreciate these charts! 

[BleedTheClock]

4 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

So if a QB completes 70% of his passes but only averages 4 or 5 yards per attempt or a RB rushes for 1,000 yards but only averages 3 yards per carry it don't matter because it's still production right? But hey, to each his own I guess...

Landry is averaging 10.1 yards per reception, according to you. That's a first down per reception. Those other two scenarios you laid out are statistically not in the same realm. Every team needs someone that gets open and catches the football at the sticks. He's the perfect WR for 3rd downs when you need a reliable guy to get you the necessary yardage. Is he going to take the top off the defense? No, but that's not what he's being asked to do. That's why you have other players on the field.

4 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Constantly gets open? Can put it in the paint in the red zone? Excellent route runner? Stop it. 

Which one of these things isn't true? You're being goofy.

4 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

He is not a good route runner and he is not as productive as his numbers suggests either. As I showed above, of his 206 total catches in the last 2 years, exactly 50% of them(103) have came from only 3 different routes, most of which coming on a screen(22%)

So what? I don't care how he's generating offense. The fact is, he generates offense and gets open. If you can run 2-3 routes and constantly find yourself open, you're a great route runner in my opinion. It's about getting open, not about having a diverse route tree. Would you dock a pass rusher who only uses a bull rush but accumulates 16 sacks every season? 

4 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Landry is a perfect example of how raw stats can be deceiving. Even his 200 catches is not impressive when you look at the big picture and his lowly career averages of 10.1 yards per reception (despite already having 570 targets in only 4 years-4th most in history), is very indicative of this. 

Ok. 10.1 yards per reception is fine with me if he's catching 100+ balls.

4 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

He is strictly a slot guy who's numbers do not match that of a top WR, at all and the Browns will soon find that out.

He is strictly a slot guy, but he's the best one in the NFL. Wes Welker was strictly a slot guy too. Was he not in the top 10 WR's in the NFL? I'm not even arguing that Landry is a lock for the top 10. I didn't make a list. But your arguments are pretty weak. You're discounting production because you don't like the way he gets it done. He doesn't terrify cornerbacks like Julio or Brown do, but I guarantee you defenses loathe trying to cover him up. He is a chain-moving WR that will lead the Browns in receptions and receiving yards being flanked by Gordon & Coleman/Callaway. He's going to feast.

[SteelKing728]

Stefon Diggs will be a top 10 receiver this year.

you hear me @bzane and @Illadelegend215!?! Top 10!!!!

[JAF-N72EX]

22 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Landry is averaging 10.1 yards per reception, according to you. That's a first down per reception.

That's not how football works and you know it. Now, your just being obtuse for the sake of it. Cmon now, you're than that.

The average YPC for a WR is around 12.5  and around the 14-16 range for top-end receivers. Landry averages over 2 yards less than the average and 4-6 yards less than that of a top receiver for his career despite not having the playing against the same top corners in the league as most do. Landry was literally the first WR in history to have more than 100 targets and not reach a 1,000 yards---that's alarming--I don't care how you look at it. 

I would usually pay no mind to Landry's route running and his 10.1 YPC as much as I am here, but when a WR is only 4 years into his career and his average is as low as a TE or a RB, even after seeing the amount of targets that he has had(570 - 4th most in history in a players first 4 years), it's hard not to take notice. Even for a slot receiver, that is very low. Fitz has been well past his prime and has been a slot receiver for the last few years and his career average is still 12.6 YPC. 

Just to pile on a bit and put this into better perspective.

Since the merger in 1970 there have been 721 players in total (TE/RB/FB included) who have atleast 50 catches in atleast one season. Among them, Landry's 10.1 has the 537th lowest. His numbers are seriously down there with the likes of running backs. That's how far down the proverbial WR pole he is in history.  (I'll post it if you would like to see the data - I'm only not just out of respect for those who are using mobile devices) 

Furthermore, since 1992, there have been 171 WR's that have 500 or more targets in their career. The average is 13.7 YPC and Landry's 10.1 ranks the second lowest among them(170) behind only Danny Amendola who has just 46 starts in his entire career. (I'll post this too if you would like to see the data)

^^All of this says alot about him and coincides with exactly what I have been saying about his short route running and how this has padded his stats to make him look better than he actually is. 

22 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

On 5/27/2018 at 9:30 PM, JustAnotherFan said:

So if a QB completes 70% of his passes but only averages 4 or 5 yards per attempt or a RB rushes for 1,000 yards but only averages 3 yards per carry it don't matter because it's still production right? But hey, to each his own I guess...

Those other two scenarios you laid out are statistically not in the same realm.

They are by your logic. Production is production. It doesn't matter how where it comes from or how it got there, right?

So, 70% completion percentage is 70% completion percentage. It doesn't matter if they were all check downs for 4 yards. Just like a 1,000 yards is a 1,000 yards. Even if it took 333 carries to get it. 

23 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Every team needs someone that gets open and catches the football at the sticks. He's the perfect WR for 3rd downs when you need a reliable guy to get you the necessary yardage.

Key words here - necessary - 3rd downs. That's the thing, he is not the 3rd down receiver that some people think he is. For one, he does not see the same defensive coverage that other WR's see. He does not line up against the best coverage corners in the league like other do and he still isn't as efficient as you're trying to portray him to be. 

Since 2014, he has a league high 43 receptions on 3rd downs that have not gone for a first down -- next closest is Duke Johnson(37) and Witten, Powell, Gate(35). He has started 57 games with 570 targets in 4 years and he still only has 54 first down receptions(T-19th), 769 yards(22nd in the league in the last 4 years), 4 TD's(T-57th) and on 3rd downs in the last 4 years combined.

Just a quick sample by comparison using some of the names mentioned here (FYI, I know that you're are not saying that he is a top WR. This is just a quick sample to use as a gauge to show that he is not what you think he is as a 3rd down threat );  

AB = 61 games, 93 receptions(1st), 1671 yards(1st), 10 TD(T-4th) on 3rd down . 
Hopkins = 63 games, 92 rec(2nd), 1361 yards(2nd), 7 TD(T-22nd) on 3rd down.
Evans = 61 games, 83 rec(3rd), 1214 yards(5th), 9 TD(T-6th) on 3rd down.
   
And just to clarify a little more. Don't let those 4TD's (mere 22 total TD's in 570 targets) fool you either. Two of those came from last season. One of which came in garbage time 4th quarter during 45-20 route by Carolina. He had ZERO in 2016. One in 2015 and one in 2014.

Kenny Still has over twice as many TD's in only 3 years on 3rd down (9).
 

Quote

 

Is he going to take the top off the defense? No, but that's not what he's being asked to do. That's why you have other players on the field.

 

He has not been asked because he has not shown the ability to anything else. Like I said, he is a WR with limited capabilities.

I don't care that he  isn't a deep threat - or any other WR for that matter. Whether it's deep, mid or short range.......none of that matters me. If I cared about deep threats I would have cared about Desan Jackson or Bernard Berrian but I didn't. Like most, I saw that they were a one trick pony just like Landry is.

 I do, however, care if a top WR is good enough to atleast be solid in all facets and is capable of doing it against the best corners in the league on a consistent basis. This is how the best WR's in the league separate themselves from the rest and Landry on the other hand has not done either of these.

22 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Quote

Constantly gets open? Can put it in the paint in the red zone? Excellent route runner? Stop it. 

Which one of these things isn't true? You're being goofy.

None of them are true, relatively speaking. The constantly getting open part could be somewhat true (depending on how you interpret the meaning I suppose), if catching screens and/or a 4 yard pass counts as "being open" then I guess it is. 

But feel to free to back up your claims with anything but your opinions though. 

On 5/28/2018 at 2:22 AM, BleedTheClock said:

Quote

He is not a good route runner and he is not as productive as his numbers suggests either. As I showed above, of his 206 total catches in the last 2 years, exactly 50% of them(103) have came from only 3 different routes, most of which coming on a screen(22%)

So what? I don't care how he's generating offense. The fact is, he generates offense and gets open. If you can run 2-3 routes and constantly find yourself open, you're a great route runner in my opinion. It's about getting open, not about having a diverse route tree. Would you dock a pass rusher who only uses a bull rush but accumulates 16 sacks every season? 

See, this where we greatly differ then. 

Even running backs constantly find themselves open using only 2-3 routes(including the screen), are they great route runners too in your opinion?

You seem to have pretty low standards but this does open up an interesting question though. Who are the WORST route runners in the league?  

To me, you do need diversity to be a top-end WR. And just to be clear, what I mean by diversity, does not mean that every WR has to run every route perfectly either but I expect more than just 50% of your "production" to come from more than a screen and 2 other different routes. 

A screen pass is not "finding yourself open". Any monkey can catch a screen pass. 

To answer your rhetorical question. Did said pass rusher see 1500 snaps? Then yes, absolutely. 

On 5/28/2018 at 2:22 AM, BleedTheClock said:

Quote

He is strictly a slot guy who's numbers do not match that of a top WR, at all and the Browns will soon find that out.

He is strictly a slot guy, but he's the best one in the NFL. Wes Welker was strictly a slot guy too. Was he not in the top 10 WR's in the NFL?

No. Is Beasley?

On 5/28/2018 at 2:22 AM, BleedTheClock said:

I'm not even arguing that Landry is a lock for the top 10. I didn't make a list. But your arguments are pretty weak.

According to you my arguments are weak, because you don't agree with them, but I have atleast supported my arguments with facts and have even refuted your very own opinions with facts. Neither of which can be said about you. So what does that say about your arguments? You have yet to provide any facts. Only opinions.

On 5/28/2018 at 2:22 AM, BleedTheClock said:

He doesn't terrify cornerbacks like Julio or Brown do, but I guarantee you defenses loathe trying to cover him up. He is a chain-moving WR that will lead the Browns in receptions and receiving yards being flanked by Gordon & Coleman/Callaway. He's going to feast.

He don't terrify cornerbacks because he don't see any that are terrifying like most WR's do. 

[SmittyBacall]

I would think boundary receivers who threaten every level of the field are more valuable (thus more deserving of a top 10 spot) than slot receivers who move the chains. They’re just a rarer breed. 

TBH, slot receivers and boundary receivers should be separated in these lists entirely. 

[DoleINGout]

Antonio Brown

Julio Jones

Odell Beckham Jr.

DeAndre Hopkins

Keenan Allen

Michael Thomas

Larry Fitzgerald

AJ Green

Jarvis Landry

Doug Baldwin

 

Demaryius Thomas

Tyreek Hill

Davante Adams

Alshon Jeffery

Julian Edelman

Adam Thielan

Mike Evans

Brandin Cooks

Marvin Jones

Stefon Diggs

 

Emmanuel Sanders

DeSean Jackson

Marquise Goodwin

Amari Cooper

Pierre Garçon

TY Hilton

Will Fuller

Sammy Watkins

Golden Tate

Allen Robinson

 

Corey Davis

Josh Gordon

Robert Woods

Nelson Agholor

Dez Bryant

Rishard Matthews

Calvin Ridley

Kelvin Benjamin

Sterling Shepard

Paul Richardson

 

Robby Anderson

Kenny Stills

Devin Funchess

Jermaine Kearse

Mike Wallace

Randall Cobb

Tyrell Williams

DeVante Parker

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Danny Amendola

[ET80]

3 hours ago, DoleINGout said:

Antonio Brown

Julio Jones

Odell Beckham Jr.

DeAndre Hopkins

Keenan Allen

Michael Thomas

Larry Fitzgerald

AJ Green

Jarvis Landry

Doug Baldwin - nope

 

Demaryius Thomas

Tyreek Hill - nope

Davante Adams - nope

Alshon Jeffery - nope

Julian Edelman - maybe, depends on post ACL performance

Adam Thielan - nope

Mike Evans - oh hell no

Brandin Cooks - nope

Marvin Jones - nope

Stefon Diggs - nope

 

Emmanuel Sanders - nope

DeSean Jackson - leaning no, but probably not

Marquise Goodwin

Amari Cooper - nope

Pierre Garçon

TY Hilton - nope

Will Fuller

Sammy Watkins - nope

Golden Tate - nope

Allen Robinson - depends on post ACL performance, but leaning nope

 

Corey Davis - probably not

Josh Gordon - oh hell no

Robert Woods

Nelson Agholor

Dez Bryant

Rishard Matthews

Calvin Ridley

Kelvin Benjamin

Sterling Shepard

Paul Richardson

 

Robby Anderson

Kenny Stills

Devin Funchess

Jermaine Kearse

Mike Wallace

Randall Cobb

Tyrell Williams

DeVante Parker

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Danny Amendola

My thoughts on your list so far vs Landry.

[DoleINGout]

3 minutes ago, EliteTexan80 said:

My thoughts on your list so far vs Landry.

as in nope landry isn't better?

[ET80]

42 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

as in nope landry isn't better?

Correct.

[DoleINGout]

1 minute ago, EliteTexan80 said:

Correct.

I mean... not a top thirty receiver is basically what you put so I can't agree with that.

[ET80]

1 minute ago, DoleINGout said:

I mean... not a top thirty receiver is basically what you put so I can't agree with that.

25ish, if you take out the ACL guys and Jackson (who is basically the opposite of Landry - doesn't get the volume, but hits big plays to the point of drawing significant attention). 

I'd say that's fair.

[DoleINGout]

3 hours ago, EliteTexan80 said:

I'd say that's fair.

I disagree completely. Landry is a top slot receiver and complete game changer. He galvanizes teammates and is rarely unavailble because of penalties, suspensions, injuries or contract disputes. Could you argue Landry isn't as dominant as certain other players because they line up outside more often than he does? It's possible but not really the strongest argument to me.

[JAF-N72EX]

16 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

I disagree completely. Landry is a top slot receiver and complete game changer. He galvanizes teammates and is rarely unavailble because of penalties, suspensions, injuries or contract disputes. Could you argue Landry isn't as dominant as certain other players because they line up outside more often than he does? It's possible but not really the strongest argument to me.

I have already said my peace here but I'm curious as to what makes you think he is a game changer? What does he offer more that others don't? 

His best assets are his catch radius, his ability to make defenders miss and play through tackles but not much else.