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2018 Draft Eligible QB Thread


CalhounLambeau

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Josh Allen really is just not a very good QB, becomes more and more obvious with every game I watch... but... he's got a special arm. Very athletic as well. Basically a prototype, just doesn't actually play well/produce. Quite the conundrum, but I figure enough scouts will have fallen in love with his physical traits alone that they take a gamble on him around the 4th a la Logan Thomas. Think the odds are very low that a guy who can't perform well at the college level can do so at the NFL level, but it happens, and it's worth the gamble. No way he is a 1st round guy like some thought he might be. His stock trajectory is reminiscent, though not quite as extreme, as the aforementioned Thomas.

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On 10/7/2017 at 12:27 PM, CWood21 said:

The whole system argument for QBs gets overblown way too much.  Most of these college QBs play out of the shotgun, which means their footwork is going to be a work in progress.  It's the decision making part of the process that I think is the part we should be analyzing when we talk about the systems that QB comes in.  If the QB comes out of a system where the pass has a predetermined target, that's an issue in terms of evaluating.  But that's not the case with Baker Mayfield in Oklahoma's offense.

I agree, the system argument is blown out of proportion especially now that practically every college QB comes from some kind of system.

Far more important is arm strength and intangibles(mental toughness, leadership ability and character). The pros will take a QB with arm strength and solid intangibles every day of the week over any QB who plays in any system. Mayfield is a truly interesting prospect, He lacks some of the physical traits pros like to see in a QB prospect, but his intangibles are off the charts and intangibles will carry you a long way in the NFL as long as you do not have a complete noodle for an arm. This man is a great leader of men and some NFL team will fall in love with his character and maybe draft him late round 1. I do not think he has enough physical ability to go higher than that.

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30 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Josh Allen really is just not a very good QB, becomes more and more obvious with every game I watch... but... he's got a special arm. Very athletic as well. Basically a prototype, just doesn't actually play well/produce. Quite the conundrum, but I figure enough scouts will have fallen in love with his physical traits alone that they take a gamble on him around the 4th a la Logan Thomas. Think the odds are very low that a guy who can't perform well at the college level can do so at the NFL level, but it happens, and it's worth the gamble. No way he is a 1st round guy like some thought he might be. His stock trajectory is reminiscent, though not quite as extreme, as the aforementioned Thomas.

I could be way off, but I think you are wrong about him slipping out of round 1. HC's and OC's are famous for thinking they can turn somebody with great physical ability, into something special and with a QB like Allen, who has a very special arm, some team is going to take the risk on him I believe in round 1. He is very raw, but he is only a junior and his best years could still be ahead of him.

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On 10/8/2017 at 12:27 AM, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Walterfootball has Clayton Thorson, the NW QB, as #15 in their mock. Apparently they've heard from NFL guys that they have a 1st round grade on him.

 

Somebody please explain this to me. I don't even see how this guy is an NFL QB, let alone a 1st round pick. Good size, an NFL arm... that's where it ends from what I've seen.

He's everything you want off the field. 

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10 hours ago, Scout said:

He's everything you want off the field. 

Yep. And honestly, from a physical standpoint, he has it all too. 6'4, 220 or so, good arm. That's a recipe for at least a high mid rounder right there. Plus, I think teams will give him a little of the Jay Cutler treatment - Cutler had a much longer leash on his faults in production as a prospect because he was playing for a massively out talented Vandy team playing in a big boy conference. Northwestern is much the same. This isn't the Josh Allen argument of lack of talent where he's playing teams just as talentless; northwestern is expected to combat teams like OSU, PSU, and Michigan, not to mention the likes of Wisconsin and MSU. 

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2 hours ago, Scout said:

As prospects: Darnold vs Wentz

Darnold. I was actually a huge Wentz fan to start his final season and thought he was going to be a great sleeper in the middle rounds, but in truth, I never bought into the rocketing draft hype and first round pick that he ended up with. I had a second round grade on him pre-draft, so he went much higher than I had him projected, and when the talk started that he was going to go in the first round, and then potentially a top pick, I couldn't get on board. 

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Jay Cutler and NW QBs played some of the toughest competition in college, so of course you can forgive their less than stellar production. Allen hasn't even been particularly good against other crappy teams, and downright awful against power 5 competition. Every non power 5 QB drafted in the first round since 2004

 

Big Ben

  • 4,500 yards, 69.1% completions, 165.8 passer rating as junior
  • Career vs P5: 3,000 yards, 64% completions, 137.2 passe rating (11 games)

JP Losman

  • 3,100 yards, 59.5% completions, 139.9 passer rating
  • Career vs P5: 905 yards, 53% completions, 120.5 passer rating (4 games)

Alex Smith

  • 3,000 yards, 67.5% completions, 176.5 passer rating as junior
  • Career vs P5: 1,700 yards, 70.5% completions, 171.3 passer rating (5 games)

Flacco

  • 4,300 yards, 63.5% completions, 144.9 passer rating as RS junior (15 games)

Bortles

  • 3,600 yards, 67.8% completions, 163.4 passer rating as a senior
  • Career vs P5: 1,463 yards, 66.9% completions, 149.2 passer rating (5 games)

Wentz

  • 4,800 yards, ~63% completions, ~153 passer rating in his 23 starts
  • vs Iowa St: 18/28, 204 yards

Lynch

  • 3,800 yards, 66.8% completions, 157.5 passer rating as a RS junior
  • Career vs P5: 1,000 yards, 58.6% completions, 108.7 passer rating (5 games, didn't count Kansas)

 

Josh Allen

  • 4,100 yards, 56% completions, 137.7 passer rating in his 21 starts
  • Career vs P5: 427 yards, 50% completions, 74.1 passer rating (3 games)

 

Obviously still young and will hopefully tear through MWC comp again, but I think he'd have to stay 4 years to get into the 1st round. Just way too raw, accuracy is simply not NFL caliber. I know scouts will overlook non superb production in QBs with elite traits, but average if not mediocre production? I don't think they'll over look that enough to take him in the 1st. I see a slightly faster, slightly smaller, Logan Thomas in him on the field. Hard to say what's between the ears, I guess that will be the biggest deciding factor with whether 1 team falls in love with him and thinks the project is worth taking on with a 1st, if he even comes out.

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On 10/8/2017 at 12:27 AM, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Walterfootball has Clayton Thorson, the NW QB, as #15 in their mock. Apparently they've heard from NFL guys that they have a 1st round grade on him.

 

Somebody please explain this to me. I don't even see how this guy is an NFL QB, let alone a 1st round pick. Good size, an NFL arm... that's where it ends from what I've seen.

It sounds like he has a really strong arm and he's big. That's the first hurdle, as you mentioned. He's also a three-year starter, so he has plenty of experience, he plays in a big-time conference, and he has to be fairly intelligent to go to Northwestern. That's most of what teams look for. It looks like he has thrown more picks than usual this year, but his numbers seem to have been getting better each year that he plays. 

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Anyone know or heard anything about Easton Stick? He played about half the season for NDSU during Wentz' last year and was hurt. Now he is essentially in his third year as a starter there. A buddy of mine said he's better than Wentz but I've never seen him play.

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On 10/9/2017 at 2:08 PM, RandyMossIsBoss said:

 

Josh Allen

  • 4,100 yards, 56% completions, 137.7 passer rating in his 21 starts
  • Career vs P5: 427 yards, 50% completions, 74.1 passer rating (3 games)

 

Obviously still young and will hopefully tear through MWC comp again, but I think he'd have to stay 4 years to get into the 1st round. Just way too raw, accuracy is simply not NFL caliber. I know scouts will overlook non superb production in QBs with elite traits, but average if not mediocre production? I don't think they'll over look that enough to take him in the 1st. I see a slightly faster, slightly smaller, Logan Thomas in him on the field. Hard to say what's between the ears, I guess that will be the biggest deciding factor with whether 1 team falls in love with him and thinks the project is worth taking on with a 1st, if he even comes out.

Yeah I agree no way he comes out early this year, that would be foolish especially with how he has played.  Still really talented just not worth the top 3 in the draft hype he was getting right at the start of this year.  Tons to work with being that big and athletic with such a strong arm and ability to throw on the move.  Long ways to go though, hopefully he is smart and comes back to continue to work on his game.  It is never good to have such poor outings against not very talented teams, especially like Hawaii...

 

 

9 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

Anyone know or heard anything about Easton Stick? He played about half the season for NDSU during Wentz' last year and was hurt. Now he is essentially in his third year as a starter there. A buddy of mine said he's better than Wentz but I've never seen him play.

Stick is a good prospect, lucky for him though he is a junior and will have another year.  Nice looking athlete but has a long ways to go as a passer.  Your buddy is full of it, Wentz is much bigger than Stick and has a far better arm.  Wentz is one of the best QB prospects to come into the NFL in the past 5 years easily, Stick is not that level of a prospect to be a high 1st round pick.  A prospect to watch though for sure, I would be surprised if Stick leads NDSU to the title this year they have a lot of competition to go up against.

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