Interesting case of Khalil Mack

[IronMike84]

Sounds like a great deal...

 

 

 

...in fairytale land.

[JAF-N72EX]

36 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Khalil Mack is routinely an All Pro.

Draft picks and cap room are unknowns. They are 50/50 to return on the investment.

Give me the guaranteed stud.

So you be okay with this:

Raiders: Khalil Mack
Bears: 2019 = 1st, 3rd, Floyd(if it's even possible with his injury history) + 2020 = mid-late round pick + virtually no cap space to work with next year + Goldman OR Amos(can't afford both now) + possibly RRH, Cunningham, etc + having no leg room for possible extensions in 2019 to prepare for what could be a VERY expensive 2020 off-season for us. Especially if Trubisky turns out to be the QB that we all expect him to be.

Keep in mind, JG is now getting 27M APY after only a few snaps(relatively speaking ofcourse) and a 30 year old 3rd round pick , Kirk freaking Cousins, just signed a contract for 28M APY in 2018.  Extrapolate that draft pick, age and those numbers 2 years from now and we're potentially talking about at the least 34M APY in order to keep Trubisky. Which eats into a majority of our cap space. 

 My point is, you're thinking short term because it sounds good on paper, but in the long term it would absolutely kill us right now. We are not a pass rusher away from being a contender. We made this mistake before with Cutler. Remember?

 

[Epyon]

1 hour ago, JustAnotherFan said:

We are not a pass rusher away from being a contender. We made this mistake before with Cutler.

What do you think we're actually missing? Legit question...

We had a top tier defense last year without good production from the OLB position, which is considered the most important part of the 3-4 defense.

We have the best TE depth I've seen in years

We have the best WR depth I've seen in years

We have the best RB depth I've seen in years

Pace is already "all in" on Trubisky... so at least from his perspective we have our QB, and Daniels showed last week that he's probably our best backup QB in years as well.

Our OL interior is top tier

Our interior LB group is probably the deepest I've seen in years with 3 starting quality players for 2 spots (assuming Roquan plays up to par)

Our entire secondary played lights out last year (honestly outplayed their talent level) and returns entirely intact.

 

In my mind we're only missing 3 things:

-Any "ELITE" level player

-A starting OLB

-Right Tackle (Coward can hopefully develop to take this job next season).

 

So... Mack fills 2 of those needs immediately and potentially makes a top 10 defense into a top 3 defense overnight.  Pass rush that actually gets home only makes the secondary's job that much easier, and a REAL threat opposite Floyd will free Floyd up to actually do some damage. Synergistically I don't think there's a single thing this team could possibly do to improve itself more than adding Mack.... and from Pace's perspective, he's ALREADY "all in" on Trubisky being "the guy" so there really isn't a single thing that can or should stop us from tossing even two firsts into the fire and taking a proven elite level player and gunning hard for our window, because THIS IS the window.

[IronMike84]

It’s pretty naive to say Mack is the final piece of the puzzle. By the end of the season there will be glaring position needs that none of us expect. This happens to every team every year.

There are definitely similarities to the Cutler trade, because at that time the mantra was “all we need is a QB,” which wound up being totally false.

[WindyCity]

3 hours ago, IronMike84 said:

It’s pretty naive to say Mack is the final piece of the puzzle. By the end of the season there will be glaring position needs that none of us expect. This happens to every team every year.

There are definitely similarities to the Cutler trade, because at that time the mantra was “all we need is a QB,” which wound up being totally false.

Cutler did not live up to the value of the trade, where Mack is an All Pro and consistently dominant player.

Angelo sucked at drafting and struggled to find starting level talents throughout the draft, where as Pace has had far more success in the mid rounds then previous GMs.

[WindyCity]

10 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

So you be okay with this:

Raiders: Khalil Mack
Bears: 2019 = 1st, 3rd, Floyd(if it's even possible with his injury history) + 2020 = mid-late round pick + virtually no cap space to work with next year + Goldman OR Amos(can't afford both now) + possibly RRH, Cunningham, etc + having no leg room for possible extensions in 2019 to prepare for what could be a VERY expensive 2020 off-season for us. Especially if Trubisky turns out to be the QB that we all expect him to be.

Keep in mind, JG is now getting 27M APY after only a few snaps(relatively speaking ofcourse) and a 30 year old 3rd round pick , Kirk freaking Cousins, just signed a contract for 28M APY in 2018.  Extrapolate that draft pick, age and those numbers 2 years from now and we're potentially talking about at the least 34M APY in order to keep Trubisky. Which eats into a majority of our cap space. 

 My point is, you're thinking short term because it sounds good on paper, but in the long term it would absolutely kill us right now. We are not a pass rusher away from being a contender. We made this mistake before with Cutler. Remember?

 

You are wrong about the cap and your doomsday cap scenario is not rooted in reality.

I am not thinking about the short term. I am thinking that a dominant pass rusher over the next 4 years changes the Bears outlook while they have a QB on a rookie contract.

You know what would be idiotic? Not going for it while your QB is cheap and slowly methodically marching along till your QB is making 30 million and you cannot be aggressive.

The window to move aggressively is right now. See the Rams and Eagles.

[WindyCity]

Just because Cutler was not worth it does not mean the Bears should hide in the corner when big trades are made.

Imagine if Cutler had become a top 10 or 5 QB in the league like many thought he would at the time. It would have been a franchise altering and defining trade. We probably win the 2010 Superbowl.

[dll2000]

3 hours ago, WindyCity said:

You are wrong about the cap and your doomsday cap scenario is not rooted in reality.

I am not thinking about the short term. I am thinking that a dominant pass rusher over the next 4 years changes the Bears outlook while they have a QB on a rookie contract.

You know what would be idiotic? Not going for it while your QB is cheap and slowly methodically marching along till your QB is making 30 million and you cannot be aggressive.

The window to move aggressively is right now. See the Rams and Eagles.

Agreed.  I wouldn’t go two first rounders like some are saying, but I would do a first or any player save QB  

Time to sign big time players is when your QB is on his rookie deal and you can afford it.  Once you’ve paid your QB you have to find bargains and draft well.    

Who else is going to do it?  I dont think you need to offer two first rounders. It has to be someone with a rookie QB and that is limited. 

Raiders likely end up keeping him this year I think just because he probably won’t actually sit out the year like he claims.  But I think a trade deal is in realm of possibility.   

 

[TankWilliams]

9 hours ago, IronMike84 said:

It’s pretty naive to say Mack is the final piece of the puzzle. By the end of the season there will be glaring position needs that none of us expect. This happens to every team every year.

There are definitely similarities to the Cutler trade, because at that time the mantra was “all we need is a QB,” which wound up being totally false.

Yup.  Holes will be more apparent as the season wears on.  My money is on the offensive line, both tackles could need replacing next year.  Leno Jr is serviceable but unspectacular.  I've never liked what I've seen from Bobbie Massie.  Also, despite resigning Fuller, we could definitely use some help at CB IMO. 

That being said, a player of Mack's caliber would certainly do wonders for the morale of the team and I would be willing to bet that it would put the Bears in the fringe playoff discussions (or at least a notch up from where they are now). 

[beardown3231]

58 minutes ago, TankWilliams said:

Yup.  Holes will be more apparent as the season wears on.  My money is on the offensive line, both tackles could need replacing next year.  Leno Jr is serviceable but unspectacular.  I've never liked what I've seen from Bobbie Massie.  Also, despite resigning Fuller, we could definitely use some help at CB IMO. 

That being said, a player of Mack's caliber would certainly do wonders for the morale of the team and I would be willing to bet that it would put the Bears in the fringe playoff discussions (or at least a notch up from where they are now). 

Leno just signed a big extension IIRC, and despite what you think about him, the Bears run to the left seemingly every play and do a damn good job, so Leno must be doing something right.

I do agree on Massie + he’s a UFA after 2018, and better depth at CB is a must.

[IronMike84]

1 hour ago, TankWilliams said:

Yup.  Holes will be more apparent as the season wears on.  My money is on the offensive line, both tackles could need replacing next year.  Leno Jr is serviceable but unspectacular.  I've never liked what I've seen from Bobbie Massie.  Also, despite resigning Fuller, we could definitely use some help at CB IMO. 

That being said, a player of Mack's caliber would certainly do wonders for the morale of the team and I would be willing to bet that it would put the Bears in the fringe playoff discussions (or at least a notch up from where they are now). 

Two 1s is still ludicrous. Ryan Pace tells his bosses and the fans he’s going to build through the draft and then promptly dumps two 1s?

The very most I’m comfortable with would be a 2019 1 and a 2020 2, and even that seems like a stretch to me.

[JAF-N72EX]

@Epyon I personally don't consider a position to be solidified when a player has had 2 or 3 shaky/bad years followed by 1 good one, which is what alot of those positions are filled with right now. Including 3 quarters of the secondary and the OL to some degree. What are the odds that the light just suddenly turned on for all of them at the same time. 

-Prince will be 30 next year and let's be honest, he's not much better than a stop-gap at this point.  
-I still don't trust Amos as a legit starter and think he was simply just a beneficiary of his surrounding cast .
-Still cautious about Fuller after only playing well during a contract year. 
-Other than OLB, I'm fine with the front-7 and the depth right now (barring injury and depending on how Nichols develops).
-Depth at OL is thin. I'm also very interested to see how Whitehair plays this season as well. Physically he's a solid player at both pass-pro and run blocking but I'm getting concerned about him mentally. 

And these are only the obvious legit concerns for this season and does not include any other unforeseen happenings that could occur. But how do you fix any of this without any draft picks in the first 3 rounds next year and very little cap space? (the Raiders claiming they want two 1st rounders is only where they would want to start the negotiations, it's all for leverage)

Your point about Floyd though is where it gets a little tricky (and why I don't see this deal even being possible). Realistically, the amount of value that the Raiders would want in return, we don't have in draft picks. Therefore, we would have to include a player in order to make the deal and who do we have that has a high enough value that Pace would be willing to offer and the Raiders would even be interested in? Floyd is about the only. And even then I'm not so sure because of injury history.  

[Sugashane]

We have 4 years left of Tru's rookie deal and then have the franchise tag available. Plus Cousin's draft round (4th) is a nonfactor. He is a guy who has thrown for over 4000 yards (almost 5000 in one) and posted over 20 TDs with better than a 2/1 TD/INT ratio and a 97.5 QBR over the last 3 years. Plus solid and better QBs often hover around 15% of the total cap rate. By the time Tru would make the $34 mil APY that is likely about where it is (Rodgers' 2021 cap of $33.5 is currently 17.91% of the expected cap - the cap will jump which decreases that percentage)

 

We have $35 mil to work with next year so far, and that is before the increase in cap as well. Cutting Sims gives us another $6 mil (way too much for a #3 TE) so we are at $41 mil. Going on hypothetical scenarios let's say DT gets hurt again - cutting him is another $6.4 million.  Now at $47 mil. The only FA that look like guys that need re-signed are Goldman, Amos, Callahan, possibly RRH and/or Irving.

Goldman is a good-not-great that gets excessive love here. He isn't dominant, and if the Bears are paying a lot for him they would have been better off with moving on. Damon Harrison is far superior and is making $9ish mil per year, if Goldman wants that he is not even close to worth it. Amos has had one very good year, and he is a safety who doesn't produce many turnovers. They have shown to have a weak market overall, so he isn't getting Kam or Reshad money. If he balls out again he may come close to Jefferson, being about the 3rd highest on APY for SS. $8 mil per year is the ceiling for him.

Let's be real, Cunningham isn't a world beater and can be replaced easily or bought for cheap, RRH likely gets a solid pay raise but he isn't getting a big deal without a monster year which I highly doubt. Other guys like DHC, Grant, and others are on rookie deals and have done little to warrant a big deal. Callahan get more than $5 mil per year to be a slot CB? That puts him around the 30 mark for highest paid CBs per year. 2020 has Whitehair and Howard to re-sign and then Kwiatkoski and Bullard are potential guys to make priorities. That year Amukamara can be cut to save $9 mil, etc. There is a lot of fluidity and the Bears have shown to be able to get cheaper players for depth.

I don't see what is going to cripple us. Good players get paid, but stars are the only ones getting massive deals. That is only Tru and Mack. Howard isn't sniffing Bell or Gurley's contracts, Whitehair isn't looking at a Norwell deal, etc. We have a solid group but nothing spectacular. Pace has also shown to be a fan of trading down, maybe he would trade down a few times over 2 drafts at accrue 5-6 picks in the mid rounds (trading down in the 2 in both years).

 

We need stud players to build around, not overpaying pretty good players like we have had to do with Amukamara. Plus the deal can be structured to be heavily loaded in 2019 or 2020. Watt is averaging just under $17 mil per year. I would pay that for Mack, but wouldn't want to spend $20mil for the combo of Amos and Goldman.

[pigsooie5]

1 hour ago, IronMike84 said:

Two 1s is still ludicrous. Ryan Pace tells his bosses and the fans he’s going to build through the draft and then promptly dumps two 1s?

The very most I’m comfortable with would be a 2019 1 and a 2020 2, and even that seems like a stretch to me.

2019 1, 2020 2, Nick Kwiatkoski 

[Sugashane]

2 hours ago, IronMike84 said:

Two 1s is still ludicrous. Ryan Pace tells his bosses and the fans he’s going to build through the draft and then promptly dumps two 1s?

The very most I’m comfortable with would be a 2019 1 and a 2020 2, and even that seems like a stretch to me.

Building through the draft doesn't mean exclusively. Look at how long GB had f***ed up their chances at a Super Bowl by being so stubborn. They have a top 10 all time QB and have seen one Super Bowl, they have wasted the bulk of his career because they relied only on the draft. Most of our best players are FA signings. Hicks, DT, Robinson, Burton, etc. He wasn't being a hypocrite by signing out some big deals, and using draft capital to get a proved stud shouldn't be something to scoff at. Mack is better than anyone we are likely to draft in the next 5 years.

Plus looking at the players we have drafted since Urlacher, are there any two in a row that are better than Mack? The most proven duo in back to back years is Long and Fuller, and I'd have drop them for Mack in a heartbeat.