Dr LBC Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 "Your guys" are the guys that you, for whatever reason (gut instinct, based on your research, favorable scheme/personnel changes, etc.) you just "have a feeling about" this fantasy season, so much that you're willing to make a reasonable reach against value and ADP in order to make sure they're on your roster. There are scenarios (particularly if you're stuck picking on the turn in a 12-or-more team league) where you're just going to have to accept that if you want "your guy" you're going to have to reach for him, if you're bullish about getting him versus the other similarly-rated guys around him. So who are yours this season (and preferably why)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr LBC Posted August 14, 2018 Author Share Posted August 14, 2018 As for me, I've kind of staged things out: Early on - Christian McCaffrey is definitely one. I have him inside my Top 12 RB's and prefer him to the likes of Freeman, McCoy, and so forth. I like him a shade more in PPR league to where I'd take him ahead of Dalvin Cook, because I flatly love the fit with him and Norv Turner's offense. The touches absolutely look like they'll be there and outside of the returning Olsen, I don't see a receiver on that team that I believe threatens him (at least not immediately, it will take DJ Moore half the season to really break through) not being one of the top two pass-catchers in that offense. I genuinely feel like this is a late-2000's Warrick Dunn type scenario - when he led the league with 5.4 yards per carry average. I also don't feel like Fournette is getting the love he deserves - that's also probably because my biggest money league rewards TD's heavily and Fournette, when healthy, is a standard league beast. Later on, Burkhead has been another of my guys that constantly end up popping up on my roster with a slight reach. I loved his value a lot more before Sony Michel's injury gave him a bit of an ADP spike, but one thing that keeps you getting touches in that New England offense is consistency, and I feel like Burkhead's multi-faceted game lends itself to being able to show increased consistency and production during the Edelman suspension that should help keep his touches up throughout the rest of the season. Receiver-wise, the two guys I'm finding by hook or crook on most of my rosters are Corey Davis (I was similarly bullish on Marvin Jones last season) and Robby Anderson (in PPR and 1/2-pt PPR leagues last year, with similar-to-worse QB play and a worse OL, he was a productive weekly WR3/Flex starter). TE is interesting, largely because I'm an advocate of waiting on the position until I have all my starters at the other skill positions plus at least half my depth there as well rostered. That said, I think it's a case of the early bye giving you an built-in easy-out if he does get injured again, I'm on the Jordan Reed train right now. Alex Smith notoriously feeds his TE (if Reed gets injured Vernon Davis is immediately a Top 10 TE for me) and at this point you're getting Reed's Top 5 TE ceiling (could honestly be this season's version of last season's Jimmy Graham) for the price of a Kia because people flat out expect him to get injured at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFF Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 Melvin Gordon, Kennan Allen for early rd guys.... Delanie Walker, Jordan Reed and Trey Burton at TE... Sony Michael now that his price dropped... Big Ben and Alex Smith for QBs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr LBC Posted August 15, 2018 Author Share Posted August 15, 2018 1 minute ago, AlanFanecaFan said: Melvin Gordon, Kennan Allen for early rd guys.... Delanie Walker, Jordan Reed and Trey Burton at TE... Sony Michael now that his price dropped... Big Ben and Alex Smith for QBs later. The only reason I shy away from Ben is that one of my primary leagues only has 3 bench spots and I don't believe in rostering 2 QB's... and Ben's home/road splits are a very real thing. I have to have a really well-balanced team to go out of my way to draft him. Stafford still around in the 9th round is the earliest I'll reach for a QB. Otherwise, I'm content to sit tight for Mariota (though I'd probably sooner stream someone else with favorable matchups and similar upside for the first couple weeks), Smith, or Ryan (he's due for positive regression this year). Rivers is the ultimate failsafe because he's only not finished as a Top 12 fantasy QB once in my recollection, I just have a feeling that he's going to end up on the later half of that grouping at best this season, so I'm willing to roll with upside the first couple weeks and wait to see if someone drops a guy that underperforms the first couple weeks because of bad matchups. I also think Tyrod Taylor is going to be a streamable QB this season - would certainly rather trot him out there than someone like Flacco. Similarly, I still think Bortles is a viable fantasy QB streamer - in one of those, better fantasy QB than actual QB type scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeezla Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 AJ Green, Corey Davis, Wentz, Evan Engram, Marvin Jones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 My guy i'm trying to get on every team is Aaron Jones. The Packers like him as their top back from reports but he got that 2 game suspension so he's kinda been forgotten about. I feel like i can get him in the 10th or 11th round and i have a decent shot at a solid RB #2. Of course there is risk, but it is well worth the risk that late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr LBC Posted August 15, 2018 Author Share Posted August 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, EaglesPeteC said: My guy i'm trying to get on every team is Aaron Jones. The Packers like him as their top back from reports but he got that 2 game suspension so he's kinda been forgotten about. I feel like i can get him in the 10th or 11th round and i have a decent shot at a solid RB #2. Of course there is risk, but it is well worth the risk that late. Also worth noting that the Packers play the Vikings and the Bears in weeks 1 and 2, so that's going to stifle Jamaal Williams' ability to make an impact/shine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDOG_det Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 Cam Meredith. I wrote an article about this actually. He's going to be the Saints #2 WR and #3 receiving option. His floor with that role is higher than what most project his ceiling to be. Everyone is scared that the Saints spread the ball around too much, but in reality that just means they are able to carry more than one fantasy relevant RB and three or four fantasy-relevant WRs/TEs pretty much every year. In really deep leagues I like Kendrick Bourne. Goodwin and Garcon are obviously the top two WRs in that offense, but Bourne had a good connection with Garoppolo and I don't think Dante Pettis guaranteed to have a higher spot on the depth chart. If injuries strike at any point during the season for the 49ers I would expect Bourne to get some good playing time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr LBC Posted August 15, 2018 Author Share Posted August 15, 2018 1 hour ago, IDOG_det said: Cam Meredith. I wrote an article about this actually. He's going to be the Saints #2 WR and #3 receiving option. His floor with that role is higher than what most project his ceiling to be. Everyone is scared that the Saints spread the ball around too much, but in reality that just means they are able to carry more than one fantasy relevant RB and three or four fantasy-relevant WRs/TEs pretty much every year. In really deep leagues I like Kendrick Bourne. Goodwin and Garcon are obviously the top two WRs in that offense, but Bourne had a good connection with Garoppolo and I don't think Dante Pettis guaranteed to have a higher spot on the depth chart. If injuries strike at any point during the season for the 49ers I would expect Bourne to get some good playing time again. I like Meredith considerably more in PPR leagues than standard this year, largely because Brees TD totals dropped last season as Payton made a pretty clear change-up in red-zone playcalling. That concerns me because as-was Brees was had a penchant for throwing to his TE in the RZ (and I don't believe it was just a case of Fleener not showing himself last year). I'll buy that Meredith can probably meet Ted Ginn's production from last season, but I was taking Ginn as a final dart throw in 12-14 team leagues last year, where I was totally content with releasing him the first time I needed a waiver wire pickup. I have Meredith weighted similarly this year (right around WR70) - I see why people are high on him, but I ultimately have him in that same vicinity that I have D-Jax, Chris Godwin, and Cole Beasley (Dak appears to be a creature of habit, I won't be shocked if Beasley sees Landry-in-Miami level targets from him this year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NcFinest9erFan Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 QB - I'm really ok with anyone but if I could stash one on my bench it is Mahomes RB - Howard(buying in on his improved hands), Ingram(An RB1 when he returns I hope), Freeman(Probably the only rookie at the moment that I MUST have), Peyton Barber, Aaron Jones, C.J Anderson WR- Amari Cooper(I'm buying in), Michael Crabtree(should be the redzone guy, I'll take 75-1000-8), Manny Sanders/ Cobb(Great values, WR3 with WR2 upside), Cameron Meredith/Mike Williams(Upside stashes, I'd be happy with one of them but would be ecstatic if I can land both) TE- Jordan Reed(injury prone but TE1 when healthy and can be had at a discount price), Kyle Rudolph(Kirk loves his TEs), Rick Seal-Jones(should be Sam's favorite target outside Fitz). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 I'm all aboard the great Marquise Goodwin value train. Last I checked, he was going as WR34. On NFL.com, I think his ADP is wr43? That's insane to me. I think he's a legit WR2 in most leagues this year. He's Jimmy G's favorite target, the offense should largely be okay, and I think you'll get solid WR2 out of a wr3 / flex draft position. That's how you win leagues. His value only increases if your league gives bonuses for big plays. People like Crabtree, Devante Parker, Garcon, and Jamison Crowder are going higher than him on average on some league sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NcFinest9erFan Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 32 minutes ago, Forge said: I'm all aboard the great Marquise Goodwin value train. Last I checked, he was going as WR34. On NFL.com, I think his ADP is 43? That's insane to me. I think he's a legit WR2 in most leagues this year. He's Jimmy G's favorite target, the offense should largely be okay, and I think you'll get solid WR2 out of a wr3 / flex draft position. That's how you win leagues. His value only increases if your league gives bonuses for big plays. People like Crabtree, Devante Parker, Garcon, and Jamison Crowder are going higher than him on average on some league sites. yeah we don't get points for 40+ plays but there is a ten point bonus for hitting 200 yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockice_8 Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 Guys I've been targeting heavily in mocks Crabtree (late round value for a #1 WR who will get his in the red zone) Graham (TD upside is crazy) Goodwin (he's rising up draft boards but his value is still solid) Burkhead (Worth watching in preseason how the RB situation plays out but he can do it all) Mixon (think this is breakout year) Crowell (#1 RB with TD upside in what what should be an improved offense with Darnold) Reed (If I don't land Graham because of the upside) Njoku or Ebron (safety net because Reed is so injury prone) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NcFinest9erFan Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 39 minutes ago, Rockice_8 said: Guys I've been targeting heavily in mocks Crabtree (late round value for a #1 WR who will get his in the red zone) Graham (TD upside is crazy) Goodwin (he's rising up draft boards but his value is still solid) Burkhead (Worth watching in preseason how the RB situation plays out but he can do it all) Mixon (think this is breakout year) Crowell (#1 RB with TD upside in what what should be an improved offense with Darnold) Reed (If I don't land Graham because of the upside) Njoku or Ebron (safety net because Reed is so injury prone) Yeah the thought of drafting Reed didn't really hit me till last night. He's probably 8-10 round pick, can give you TE1 and if he gets hurt oh well you didn't spend a high pick on him like year's past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted August 15, 2018 Share Posted August 15, 2018 3 Eagles that are also "my guys" Carson Wentz The narrative nationally vs locally of where Carson Wentz is health-wise is vastly different. I 100% believe he is out there week 1. He is not practicing right now and you won't see him in preseason because they have seen him do all the things early in camp and in OTA's. I love that the news is pushing him down so that I can maybe get him and the 8th-10th Round Nelson Agholor My hot take: Nelly is going to be the #1 fantasy producing Eagle offensive weapon this season. He'll out produce Ertz, Ajyai and Alshon. I don't think Alshon is going on PUP but I think he might miss a week or two and he might be slowed for an additional week or two after he comes back. This will make Ertz the #1 guy to stop for opposing defenses. Agholor will get volume from the slot and has big play ability. I am targeting him in that 8th-10th round and I think I will get a high end flex for my team. Dallas Philly Goedart I'm taking my defense and kicker in the 14th and 15th round and spending my last pick on this guy. Once again, Alshon is a risk to miss time and teams will focus on Ertz. The 2nd beneficiary after Nelson Agholor is Goedart. He will get some of Alshon's red zone production when he is out. Ertz is always good to miss a game or two during the season. If I am streaming a TE, I am keeping Goedart in my back pocket. Big Balls Doug drafted him in the 2nd round for a reason. They have a plan for this guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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