What Are You Thinking About v.CC

[Ty21]

4 minutes ago, MathMan said:

Your door has a 33% chance, right?

All of the other doors combined have a 66% chance.

One of the other doors is opened. That doesn't change the fact that all the other doors besides yours have a 66% chance.

So its always good to switch to the one remaining.

I get that but don't understand why that door inherits 33% from the exposed door. Like why didn't it just change them both to 50/50

[Malfatron]

2 minutes ago, Tyty said:

I get that but don't understand why that door inherits 33% from the exposed door. Like why didn't it just change them both to 50/50

Think of it like this: You basically get to pick from either 1 door (the door you originally picked)

or 2 doors (the 2 you didn't pick)

You know the non-grand prize door will always be opened, so it's like you get to pick both of those doors.

[Ty21]

29 minutes ago, MathMan said:

Think of it like this: You basically get to pick from either 1 door (the door you originally picked)

or 2 doors (the 2 you didn't pick)

You know the non-grand prize door will always be opened, so it's like you get to pick both of those doors.

I suppose. The logic only makes sense if this is done in every show. If it's a random occurrence though it makes me wonder if the host is just trying to get me off my door. 

[Ty21]

Seems like the probability needs to change as the circumstances change tho. 

[Malfatron]

1 minute ago, Tyty said:

I suppose. The logic only makes sense if this is done in every show. If it's a random occurrence though it makes me wonder if the host is just trying to get me off my door. 

right. if its not mandated every time, its WIFOM

[Malfatron]

6 minutes ago, Tyty said:

Seems like the probability needs to change as the circumstances change tho. 

just because another door is opened, doesn't increase your odds.

There is ALWAYS a door that can be opened.

 

Take the extreme example.

Lets say there are a million doors.

You pick one of them.

The host then opens EVERY OTHER DOOR except 1 other one.

Do you now have a 50% chance that the door you originally selected is correct?

Of course not.

 

You would definitely switch.

Edited April 18, 2018 by MathMan

[Adrenaline_Flux]

5 minutes ago, MathMan said:

just because another door is opened, doesn't increase your odds.

There is ALWAYS a door that can be opened.

 

Take the extreme example.

Lets say there are a million doors.

You pick one of them.

The host then opens EVERY OTHER DOOR except 1 other one.

Do you now have a 50% chance that the door you originally selected is correct?

Of course not.

 

You would definitely switch.

Yep.

The key is this: The host KNOWS which door has the prize or money or whatever. For obvious reasons, the case you selected won't be opened, so it retains the original % chance. For that last door though, the ONLY way it doesn't contain the objective is if you managed to select the correct door from the start, which is highly unlikely.

[skywindO2]

9 hours ago, iPwn said:

I’m p drunk but I’m fairly certain the odds actually go to half of 75% for either of the two doors that you didn’t pick

Congrats on getting through tax season!

[pwny]

1 minute ago, skywindO2 said:

Congrats on getting through tax season!

Yesterday, the IRS’s payment processing site went down. Because of this, the deadline got extended by a day.

https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-provides-additional-day-to-file-and-pay-for-taxpayers-through-wednesday-april-18-irs-processing-systems-back-online

So I get one more day of this. It should be easy though.

[skywindO2]

2 minutes ago, iPwn said:

Yesterday, the IRS’s payment processing site went down. Because of this, the deadline got extended by a day.

https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-provides-additional-day-to-file-and-pay-for-taxpayers-through-wednesday-april-18-irs-processing-systems-back-online

So I get one more day of this. It should be easy though.

I just assumed you were drunk because it was over. 

[eagles101]

The game show door is statistics run wild to be honest. 

You have three doors. You pick one. 2nd door is removed and somehow the third door has a better probability for you but would have equal probability if a second person cane in after the second door was removed. 

Or if you have two people. One picks door one, one picks door three. Door 2 is removed. So now door one and two both have a high and low chance of being right and both should change doors.

[The Gnat]

Spent a ton of time cleaning my sidewalk this weekend because it annoys me when people don't shovel that well, then spent my time cleaning out the end of the alley (we're in the middle of the block), because it was blocked up by the city when they plowed and didn't seem like they had any plans of dealing with it. Trying to relax in the evening and waiting for a package to arrive when get the notification that the mail wasn't delivered because our mail receptacle was blocked. Go out double check it, nope, pretty sure that my package with the book I was planning on reading that evening either wasn't delivered because the mail carrier was lazy or at the wrong house. Either way, I'm still pissed off about that, because we're waiting on a few other important pieces of mail as well that they might have decided randomly not to deliver.

[pwny]

8 hours ago, Tyty said:

Seems like the probability needs to change as the circumstances change tho. 

The circumstances don’t really change though, it’s just your perception that changes. You always knew that one of the two doors that you didn’t choose was a dud, you just didn’t know which. You know that one of the two doors would be a dud, but I bet you’d still take two doors over one. Finding out which of the two is the dud doesn’t change make having two doors less valuable.

There’s three circumstances. The prize is either behind door 1, 2 or 3.

Let’s say you choose door 1.

If door 1 is where the prize is, you win by sticking.

if door 2 is where the prize is, I’m going to open door 3 before the offer to switch. You win by switching.

if door 3 is where the prize is, I’m going to open door 2 before the offer. You win by switching.

[pwny]

4 minutes ago, eagles101 said:

The game show door is statistics run wild to be honest. 

You have three doors. You pick one. 2nd door is removed and somehow the third door has a better probability for you but would have equal probability if a second person cane in after the second door was removed. 

Or if you have two people. One picks door one, one picks door three. Door 2 is removed. So now door one and two both have a high and low chance of being right and both should change doors.

No on both accounts.

In your first example, the second person’s perception of the odds might be different, but the odds didn’t change. Limited knowledge of reality doesn’t change reality.

In your second example, by forcing the host to open door 2 regardless of whether or not it’s a winner, you’re removing the key variable from the situation. The host’s knowledge of which doors are which and control over which door opens before the opportunity for a switch is what creates the odds.

[eagles101]

22 minutes ago, iPwn said:

No on both accounts.

In your first example, the second person’s perception of the odds might be different, but the odds didn’t change. Limited knowledge of reality doesn’t change reality.

In your second example, by forcing the host to open door 2 regardless of whether or not it’s a winner, you’re removing the key variable from the situation. The host’s knowledge of which doors are which and control over which door opens before the opportunity for a switch is what creates the odds.

I could be dumb i guess. Wonder how that would work out in a test.