pwny Posted April 18, 2018 Author Share Posted April 18, 2018 To illustrate the two examples, we can do a quick mock up. Player 1 picks door 1. If the prize is behind door 1, the host opens either door. They don’t care which. Player 2 comes out. If they pick door 1, they win. If the prize is behind door 2, the host opens door 3. Player 2 comes out. If they pick door 1, they lose. If they pick door 2, they win. If the prize is behind door 3, the host opens door 2. Player 2 comes out. If they pick door 1, they lose. If they pick door 3 (door 2 to them), they win. Picking against the initial guess still presents the best odds, even if the second person doesn’t know the odds. ——— The second example is a bit different. Player 1 picks door 1 and player 2 picks door 2. The host is now forced to open door 3, whether it’s good or bad. If the prize is behind door 1, then player 1 wins. If the prize is behind door 2, then player 2 wins. If the prize is behind door 3, then both lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted April 18, 2018 Author Share Posted April 18, 2018 1 minute ago, eagles101 said: I could be dumb i guess. Wonder how that would work out in a test. See below. Or I guess above this comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winitall Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 59 minutes ago, eagles101 said: The game show door is statistics run wild to be honest. You have three doors. You pick one. 2nd door is removed and somehow the third door has a better probability for you but would have equal probability if a second person cane in after the second door was removed. Or if you have two people. One picks door one, one picks door three. Door 2 is removed. So now door one and two both have a high and low chance of being right and both should change doors. http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/cgi-bin/MontyKnows/monty2?0+19120 Here’s a simulator off google if you want. There’s a much better one that I can’t find but this one works. Do it once and it gives you the overall statistics for everyone who has done it. It isn’t just theoretical statistics, if you do it the results come out that 66% of the time you win if you switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pwny Posted April 18, 2018 Author Share Posted April 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, winitall said: http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/cgi-bin/MontyKnows/monty2?0+19120 Here’s a simulator off google if you want. There’s a much better one that I can’t find but this one works. Do it once and it gives you the overall statistics for everyone who has done it. It isn’t just theoretical statistics, if you do it the results come out that 66% of the time you win if you switch. This also has a second simulation where the host might accidentally open the door with the prize. which is basically the same scenario as the second example given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ty21 Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 I'm schrödingers tyty right now. I understand everything you guys are explaining and I've understood that from the start. But at the same time the original door seems appealing to me even though its probability is half the other door's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gnat Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 Why yes, I am using a Mickey Mouse License image that I found on google for this mock-up at work. And yes, it makes perfect sense to be doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FinneasGage Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 woke up an hour ago... rushed to campus & was late anyway. went to class got a text my taxes were rejected by the IRS for some reason. proceeded to fail a quiz and bomb a presentation. went to leave to go mourn, started car and it started violently smoking. turned car off. now getting a snack and calming down lol. ****. think i need to get it towed... figure out how to go to HR Block or something. but got class from 12-6 teeheehee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 23 minutes ago, eagles101 said: I could be dumb i guess. Wonder how that would work out in a test. They state it in that wikipedia article that was offered. Basically if you pick a door with a goat initially, and then switch, you will get a car. If you pick the door with a car initially, and then switch, you will get a goat. So 2/3 of the time, if you switch, you get a car. 1/3 of the time, if you switch, you get a goat. If you never switch, 1/3 of the time you get a car. 2/3 you get a goat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ty21 Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 I have like twice as many points as webmaster. What does that tell you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ty21 Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 If you have three eggs and one is rotten and your buddy makes one into a one egg omelet do you switch your egg choice or stay with the egg you got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cddolphin Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Tyty said: I have like twice as many points as webmaster. What does that tell you Tyty: 8% of posts 'liked' Webmaster: 47% of posts 'liked' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ty21 Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 9 minutes ago, cddolphin said: Tyty: 8% of posts 'liked' Webmaster: 47% of posts 'liked' I'll take those odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cddolphin Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 Just now, Tyty said: I'll take those odds You had the same number of likes as webby on the old site, I believe. So you got that going for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ty21 Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 19 minutes ago, cddolphin said: You had the same number of likes as webby on the old site, I believe. So you got that going for you. You mean he had that going for him, since I'm currently destroying him in points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FinneasGage Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 @iPwn or anyone who knows i need my adjusted gross income from last year if i just had one job the whole year and don't have income from anywhere else is that just gonna be line 1 on my w2? wages, tips, other compensation. do i need to subtract things like money withheld? or just go ahead and put in the value in that first box? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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