2019 Draft Discussion

[Arthur Penske]

I don’t know why everyone’s disagreeing with @Packerraymond here. If I’m understanding correctly he  basically agrees with all of you on premium positions but is saying if the board was a disaster for GB at 12, he’d take GBs BPA ( if it was White) or examine a trade back. That’s not controversial.  Shoot, we saw Gutey do it to an extent in 2018 when he didn’t like the edge players and said so in a confrence.

Sometimes I think some would rather draft a ****ty player at a premium position than an elite player at a “non premium” position.

[FinneasGage]

As things stand right now, I'm rooting for a tradeback assuming Allen, Williams, Bosa are gone. Value seems pretty bad at 12

[Lodestar]

1 hour ago, FinneasGage said:

As things stand right now, I'm rooting for a tradeback assuming Allen, Williams, Bosa are gone. Value seems pretty bad at 12

The board will shape up as draft day nears, but I like this idea too. If we can get one of those 2nd or 3rd tier pass rushers (Polite, Burns, Ferrell, Sweat) at #20 and pick up an extra 2nd to draft a S, WR, or TE, I would be a happy camper.

[Packerraymond]

9 hours ago, fattlipp said:

I'm starting to think DK Metcalf will be a nice value at 12,  a bigger Andre Johnson, yes please......

So lets mock the worse scenario for you guys.

1) Arizona: Bosa

2) SF: Q.Williams

3) Jets: Allen

4) Raiders: Ferrell

5) Bucs: J.Williams

6) Giants: Haskins

7) Jags: Oliver

8) Lions: Polite

9) Bills: Gary

10) Denver: G.Williams

11) Bengals: Sweat

12) X  = Metcalf, Hockenson, White, Burns, Little, Baker or Murphy

 

 

The only two I consider there are Burns and White, hopefully someone in the teens loves Kyler Murray.

[Golfman]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

The only two I consider there are Burns and White, hopefully someone in the teens loves Kyler Murray.

Or the Raiders and we get  two of these 24, 27 and 3 from them. Gil Brandt doesn't have either Burns or Simmons going in round 1. I'd take them both with those picks if Gil is right. 

 

Still get a offensive lineman and a safety or TE @30 and 44. 

[cannondale]

9 hours ago, Arthur Penske said:

Sometimes I think some would rather draft a ****ty player at a premium position than an elite player at a “non premium” position.

I would contend that there are many more fans that would rather draft xbox guys every single year even if it meant holding tryouts for lineman in the local Walmart parking lot

[Arthur Penske]

2 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

The only two I consider there are Burns and White, hopefully someone in the teens loves Kyler Murray.

If I'm going to consider White there as a BPA or luxury pick, Metcalf could be on the radar too if he blows the combine up and medicals are good. Rodgers throwing to a 6'4" 230 ish WR who is expected to run in the 4.4s? Yaaas queen. I don't pass on freaks like that to draft for need.

It would be disappointing not to get a pass rusher right away, but I hope Gutey dosen't go through free agency and ties himself up where he HAS to have an EDGE at 12.

[MacReady]

I remember when people were making the same kind of arguments for AJ Hawk.  Lol. 

2008 - Keith Rivers/Jarod Mayo (Ryan Clady, Jonathan Stewart, Brandon Albert, Dominique Rodgers Cromartie)
2009 - Aaron Curry (BJ Raji, Andre Smith)

Keith Rivers, Jarod Mayo, Aaron Curry, Brian Cushing, Sean Weatherspoon, Rolando McClain, Luke Kuechly (Gilmore, Poe and Cox were the next three taken and all three provide more value than Kuechly lol), Dont'a Hightower, Alec Ogletree, Anthony Barr, Ryan Shazier, CJ Mosley, Marcus Smith, Shaq Thompson, Stephone Anthony, Darron Lee, Hasaan Reddick, Jarrad Davis, Reuben Foster.

Those have been the first round ILB from 2008-last draft.  Why do people never talk about the Stephone Anthony's, the Hasaan Reddick's?  Yeah, if I had a choice between Luke Kuechly for 10 years or Stephen Gilmore/Fletcher Cox for ten years, I'm picking either of the other two players.  Dont'a Hightower is the only one in hindsight that I would have taken.  In 10 years.  MAYBE Mosely, too.  And Hightower is basically an EDGE rusher playing ILB.  So yeah, if you show me a guy capable of being both of those things at 25th overall, sure, I'll take him. 

Everybody gets so excited about these fast linebackers who tear up college football and it's like... What do you think those players are capable of during years where their DL isn't all that great?  Ray Lewis was pretty much a nonfactor in the 2/3 years before the Ravens got Ngata.  There is not a single position on defense that relies on other players on defense like ILB. 

@Arthur Penske...

Quote

Sometimes I think some would rather draft a ****ty player at a premium position than an elite player at a “non premium” position.

This has been addressed by me  many thousands of times. 

19 ILB drafted since 2008. 
7 hard busts.
6 injury/character busts
3 short stints/flaming out
3 hits

Other positions do not have that kind of bust/hit ratio.  They simply don't.  You draft a bust at DL and they're at worst rotational.  You draft a bust at EDGE and at worst they're a situational pass rusher.  You draft a bust at RT and 99 times out of 100 they have a strong career inside.  You draft a bust at CB and 9 times out of 10, they're better than the fourth WR on another team and provide value.  What do you do with a busted ILB? 

Not only that, but the entire draft is a crapshoot.  There is no such thing as a can't miss prospect.  AJ Hawk was a can't miss.  He was clearly a miss.  This is going to be our highest pick for the remainder of Aaron's career.  So let's say we're getting another AJ Hawk.  Would you rather have an alright ILB, or an alright pass rusher, an alright CB, an alright RT...

So yes, I would rather try to get an important position than try to get a not important position. 

[Leader]

9 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

So yes, I would rather try to get an important position than try to get a not important position. 

We know. By your own count you've said this a thousand times

[MacReady]

Just now, Arthur Penske said:

If I'm going to consider White there as a BPA or luxury pick, Metcalf could be on the radar too if he blows the combine up and medicals are good. Rodgers throwing to a 6'4" 230 ish WR who is expected to run in the 4.4s? Yaaas queen. I don't pass on freaks like that to draft for need.

LOL, my God. 

What about Rodgers throwing to a 6'4", 206 pound WR who runs a sub 4.4? 
Plus a 6'5", 214 pound WR who ran a 4.48? 

Also, what if I told you both those players were entering their second years after averaging over 15 yards per reception? 

Is it the first round WR aspect you want?

What if I told you that MVS, if compared to first round receivers, would rank 37th out of 68 first round receivers drafted since 2000?  What if I told you he would rank 21st out of those 68 receivers in yards per reception?  That he would rank 25th in yards per target?  And that he had those rankings in spite of ranking 36th in targets out of those 68 first round receivers? 

So what would you say if I told you that we got top half production for a first round receiver in the past ten years, except we got him at the very last pick of the 5th round? 

Would you then say that, maybe, it's not a wise investment to use a first round pick on a non-premium position when it is the highest pick we have had since 2009 and is likely the highest pick we will have for the next five years?  Especially in light of the fact that we already have an elite receiver, the third most promising rookie of the 2018 WR draft class and urgent needs elsewhere? 

 

[MacReady]

Just now, Leader said:

We know. By your own count you've said this a thousand times

It'll be 37,000 by April it looks like. 

We're still fresh from landing the most promising corner in the draft after people were pounding the table for Roquan Smith and Quenton Nelson last year and people still don't get it. 

It's funny because through their histories, the Bears have prized running backs and inside linebackers.  Lovie Smith even said as much during one of his initial pressers when he justified drafting, who was it... Cedric Benson? 

The Packers have put an emphasis on quarterbacks.  Which team would you rather be a fan of? 

I was literally cheering when the Bears drafted Roquan Smith. 

 

[Leader]

Roquan Smith and Quenton Nelson are players and will serve their teams well. I wouldnt mind having either on our team.

Now - you can get into the endless "Yeah but are they worth being drafted here versus there or over there " cycle.
I dont bother with such stuff as (outside the top selections) it rarely plays out the way....or to the extent....that people discuss it on social media.

[Arthur Penske]

31 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I remember when people were making the same kind of arguments for AJ Hawk.  Lol. 

2008 - Keith Rivers/Jarod Mayo (Ryan Clady, Jonathan Stewart, Brandon Albert, Dominique Rodgers Cromartie)
2009 - Aaron Curry (BJ Raji, Andre Smith)

Keith Rivers, Jarod Mayo, Aaron Curry, Brian Cushing, Sean Weatherspoon, Rolando McClain, Luke Kuechly (Gilmore, Poe and Cox were the next three taken and all three provide more value than Kuechly lol), Dont'a Hightower, Alec Ogletree, Anthony Barr, Ryan Shazier, CJ Mosley, Marcus Smith, Shaq Thompson, Stephone Anthony, Darron Lee, Hasaan Reddick, Jarrad Davis, Reuben Foster.

Those have been the first round ILB from 2008-last draft.  Why do people never talk about the Stephone Anthony's, the Hasaan Reddick's?  Yeah, if I had a choice between Luke Kuechly for 10 years or Stephen Gilmore/Fletcher Cox for ten years, I'm picking either of the other two players.  Dont'a Hightower is the only one in hindsight that I would have taken.  In 10 years.  MAYBE Mosely, too.  And Hightower is basically an EDGE rusher playing ILB.  So yeah, if you show me a guy capable of being both of those things at 25th overall, sure, I'll take him. 

Everybody gets so excited about these fast linebackers who tear up college football and it's like... What do you think those players are capable of during years where their DL isn't all that great?  Ray Lewis was pretty much a nonfactor in the 2/3 years before the Ravens got Ngata.  There is not a single position on defense that relies on other players on defense like ILB. 

@Arthur Penske...

This has been addressed by me  many thousands of times. 

19 ILB drafted since 2008. 
7 hard busts.
6 injury/character busts
3 short stints/flaming out
3 hits

Other positions do not have that kind of bust/hit ratio.  They simply don't.  You draft a bust at DL and they're at worst rotational.  You draft a bust at EDGE and at worst they're a situational pass rusher.  You draft a bust at RT and 99 times out of 100 they have a strong career inside.  You draft a bust at CB and 9 times out of 10, they're better than the fourth WR on another team and provide value.  What do you do with a busted ILB? 

Not only that, but the entire draft is a crapshoot.  There is no such thing as a can't miss prospect.  AJ Hawk was a can't miss.  He was clearly a miss.  This is going to be our highest pick for the remainder of Aaron's career.  So let's say we're getting another AJ Hawk.  Would you rather have an alright ILB, or an alright pass rusher, an alright CB, an alright RT...

So yes, I would rather try to get an important position than try to get a not important position. 

Whew, I'm glad Datone Jones will be a rotational pass rusher in the AAF, CFL, or somewhere else in 2019. Makes me feel so much better about that pick. Nick Perry too on his draft position and contract. Glad those guys were such sure things so we're not in a bad position at EDGE/ pass rusher right now. How about Jamal Renyolds? Glad he was so effective situationally and wasn't a bust. Also super glad to have Vonnie Holiday over Randy Moss.

Poe is better than Kuechly? Sure. Might want to check on Kuechly's DPOY and All-Pro awards. You also mention Cox and Gilmore going after Kuechly and conveniently gloss over Kahlil (OT), Claiborne (CB), and Okoye (DT) going  before Kuechly and Michael Brockers  (DT) Quinton Coples (EDGE) after. I'd sure take Kuechly over any of them.

Once again, I don't want an ILB that early unless it's a Patrick Willis type of player and I generally agree on premium positions being much more important. But like you said the draft is a crapshoot and there are exceptions to premium positions overvaluing generational talent at a less valuable position.  In other words, I want the best player available, not just the best position available. Drafting purely for need/position is bad business.

[MacReady]

Just now, Leader said:

Roquan Smith and Quenton Nelson are players and will serve their teams well. I wouldnt mind having either on our team.

Now - you can get into the endless "Yeah but are they worth being drafted here versus there or over there " cycle.
I dont bother with such stuff as (outside the top selections) it rarely plays out the way....or to the extent....that people discuss it on social media.

It's not endless.  There's a very simple end to that discussion.

There is one player from the 2018 draft that, in hindsight, I would have taken over Alexander, and he was taken 5th overall. 

There were 16 players that, in hindsight, I would have taken over Nelson and Smith. 

When talking about Smith, he wasn't even the best ILB taken in the draft, much less best value. 

 

 

[Leader]

Just now, Outpost31 said:

It's not endless.  There's a very simple end to that discussion.

There is one player from the 2018 draft that, in hindsight, I would have taken over Alexander, and he was taken 5th overall. 

There were 16 players that, in hindsight, I would have taken over Nelson and Smith. 

When talking about Smith, he wasn't even the best ILB taken in the draft, much less best value.

Actually I didnt ask your "draft evaluation" for Smith or Nelson and hindsight evaluations are.....well, not a complete waste of time, but fairly close.

I just said I thought they were good players and I wouldnt mind having either of them on our team. This draft value versus positional value calculation is endless, highly subjective and (as evidenced) can cloud a simple comment like: they're good players.

Yesterday I watched a highlight reel of this ILB Smith. First I saw of him and he looked good - the goal of all highlight reels. Is he worth #12. I personally cant say - but I value PackerRaymond's assessments - simply because he's nailed a number of them in the past. He thinks Smith could be a player. I tend to agree.