Top five defenses in the league

[JAF-N72EX]

As of week 4. I'll post an updated version later in the week.

TM	DEFENSE DVOA	RK	PASS DEF	PASS RK	RUSH DEF	RUSH RK	VAR.	RK	SCHED	RK	Red Zone	RK	Takeaways	RK	Scoring %	RK	TO/Drive	RK	Sack %	RK	INT %	RK	Press rate %	RK
CHI	-30.00%	1	-31.60%	1	-27.30%	5	1.50%	6	-9.90%	27	29.70%	23	11	2	24.4	3	24.4	1	11.6	1	5.8	2	30.8%	11
JAX	-18.70%	2	-12.30%	6	-26.50%	6	2.30%	7	-10.50%	29	-77.90%	2	3	25	30.4	9	4.3	32	7.3	10	0.8	27	28.9%	13
BAL	-18.20%	3	-12.40%	5	-28.30%	4	7.90%	26	-8.50%	26	-63.40%	3	5	14	24	2	10	18	6	19	2.6	12	24.9%	24
CLE	-16.70%	4	-12.60%	4	-22.40%	7	1.40%	5	0.30%	16	-9.60%	11	13	1	27	4	20.6	3	6.8	12	4.2	5	25.8%	21
NYJ	-15.20%	5	-18.40%	2	-10.80%	16	6.40%	25	-5.80%	23	-3.90%	14	10	3	28.3	7	18.9	4	6.3	15	4	6	25.5%	22
SEA	-11.80%	6	-9.00%	9	-15.00%	10	3.80%	13	-10.10%	28	1.10%	19	9	6	29.2	8	18.8	5	6.3	15	5.2	3	27.0%	18
MIA	-11.60%	7	-9.00%	8	-14.80%	12	5.60%	19	-7.30%	25	-37.40%	5	10	3	36.2	16	21.3	2	3.8	29	5.9	1	22.0%	28
PHI	-10.00%	8	-1.30%	12	-28.40%	3	12.10%	29	-1.60%	18	-37.40%	6	4	21	33.3	12	8.3	22	6.4	14	1.9	19	32.0%	8
LAR	-8.20%	9	-10.00%	7	-4.90%	23	5.90%	21	-2.50%	20	-0.50%	17	7	8	31.7	10	17.1	7	5.2	25	2.7	10	36.1%	1
IND	-7.70%	10	0.90%	13	-18.80%	8	0.60%	2	4.80%	9	-3.60%	15	8	7	42.1	23	14	11	7.9	5	2.5	13	28.2%	14
ARI	-7.10%	11	-3.00%	11	-10.40%	18	2.60%	8	8.90%	4	1.20%	20	4	21	40.5	19	9.5	20	7.5	8	1.6	22	32.4%	6
WAS	-5.00%	12	-15.60%	3	12.70%	31	1.10%	3	-14.40%	32	30.60%	25	5	14	20.6	1	14.7	9	6	19	2.7	10	30.9%	10
GB	-3.10%	13	-4.90%	10	-0.30%	26	19.20%	32	-12.90%	31	3.40%	21	6	10	27.7	5	12.8	12	8.7	4	2.9	9	33.3%	5
BUF	-1.30%	14	4.50%	15	-11.40%	14	6.30%	24	6.70%	6	69.80%	32	6	10	38	17	12	14	5.9	21	1.3	24	27.5%	16
TEN	-0.30%	15	1.00%	14	-2.30%	25	4.90%	18	-0.50%	17	-116.10%	1	5	14	32.6	11	10.9	16	7.7	6	2.1	17	25.0%	23
NE	0.60%	16	10.30%	17	-11.80%	13	6.30%	23	0.60%	15	-29.10%	8	10	3	33.3	12	16.7	8	3.4	32	3	8	34.2%	4
DEN	0.90%	17	8.30%	16	-10.40%	19	3.20%	11	9.30%	3	30.40%	24	3	25	38.3	18	6.4	28	6.3	15	1.3	24	32.3%	7
HOU	1.80%	18	26.80%	29	-31.90%	2	2.90%	9	-5.80%	22	60.70%	31	5	14	41.7	21	8.3	22	6.7	13	0.7	28	19.8%	31
PIT	3.60%	19	12.80%	19	-10.70%	17	15.30%	30	6.20%	7	-2.50%	16	7	8	35.7	15	12.5	13	7.5	8	2.5	13	31.7%	9
DAL	3.90%	20	20.60%	26	-15.00%	11	4.70%	17	-2.00%	19	43.60%	29	2	32	33.3	12	4.8	30	10	3	0	32	35.9%	3
LAC	4.10%	21	12.60%	18	-5.60%	22	3.00%	10	1.70%	14	-20.80%	10	6	10	40.5	19	14.3	10	5.7	22	3.8	7	36.0%	2
SF	4.70%	22	18.20%	23	-17.00%	9	1.30%	4	13.40%	1	20.90%	22	3	25	43.5	25	6.5	27	4.6	27	0.6	30	27.3%	17
CIN	4.70%	23	15.20%	21	-11.10%	15	5.80%	20	4.60%	10	-6.70%	13	5	14	46.7	30	11.1	15	5.5	23	1.8	20	24.2%	25
CAR	6.80%	24	14.30%	20	-4.50%	24	4.10%	16	7.00%	5	51.60%	30	6	10	28.1	6	18.8	5	7.2	11	4.9	4	26.1%	20
MIN	7.20%	25	19.00%	25	-7.60%	20	17.10%	31	-7.00%	24	-35.40%	7	4	21	45.7	28	8.7	21	7.7	6	2.3	15	27.8%	15
OAK	11.70%	26	18.40%	24	2.90%	28	9.20%	28	5.90%	8	-45.20%	4	5	14	42	22	10	18	3.6	30	2.3	15	19.7%	32
DET	11.80%	27	23.80%	28	0.70%	27	4.00%	15	-11.70%	30	-22.90%	9	3	25	46.5	29	4.7	31	11.5	2	2	18	21.4%	29
NYG	12.70%	28	16.50%	22	8.20%	29	3.50%	12	4.50%	11	-7.70%	12	3	25	45.2	27	7.1	24	3.6	30	1.5	23	30.8%	12
NO	13.80%	29	50.70%	32	-41.30%	1	8.40%	27	-3.30%	21	-0.10%	18	3	25	42.2	24	6.7	26	6.3	15	0.7	28	20.0%	30
ATL	18.10%	30	22.20%	27	11.90%	30	4.00%	14	11.30%	2	38.50%	28	4	21	47.7	31	6.8	25	4.5	28	1.8	20	24.1%	26
KC	25.00%	31	28.60%	30	18.60%	32	0.20%	1	2.20%	13	33.90%	26	3	25	48.8	32	4.9	29	5.4	24	1.1	26	26.7%	19
TB	28.90%	32	50.60%	31	-7.00%	21	6.20%	22	3.20%	12	36.00%	27	5	14	44.7	26	10.6	17	4.8	26	0.6	30	22.2%	27

[JAF-N72EX]

If you take both, the average and median rankings, above in each category--these are the team rankings:

AVERAGE RANKINGS

TM	Avg
CHI	6.9
CLE	7.8
IND	10.8
SEA	11.7
NYJ	11.8
MIA	12.9
BAL	13.0
LAR	13.2
NE	13.3
LAC	13.8
JAX	14.0
ARI	14.0
WAS	14.1
PHI	14.3
PIT	14.5
CAR	14.6
TEN	14.8
GB	14.8
BUF	17.3
DEN	17.3
CIN	19.1
SF	19.3
DAL	19.5
MIN	19.8
HOU	20.0
OAK	20.8
NYG	21.3
DET	22.5
NO	23.0
ATL	23.5
TB	23.8
KC	24.0

MEDIAN AVERAGE RANKINGS

TM	Med Avg
CHI	2.5
CLE	5
SEA	9.5
JAX	9.5
MIA	10
LAR	10
IND	10.5
NYJ	10.5
WAS	11
GB	11
LAC	12
NE	12.5
BAL	13
PHI	13
CAR	13.5
PIT	14
ARI	14.5
TEN	15.5
BUF	15.5
DEN	17.5
DAL	19.5
CIN	20
MIN	21
HOU	21.5
SF	22.5
OAK	23
NYG	23.5
NO	25.5
TB	26
KC	26
ATL	26.5
DET	27

[Asciimo]

pats dead last in sack %... no surprise there

[SBLIII]

6 hours ago, Asciimo said:

pats dead last in sack %... no surprise there

If they could be just average there their defense would be top 10. But you know, comes from ignoring the DE spot for 3 years now. Still have not recovered from losing Jones.

[Broncofan]

Before ppl take issue with the rankings, by the eye test, CHI is obvious for all to see, but CLE is certainly deserving of a top 5 D label.  Ward has been a great cover CB (still gets burned, but that's his style), with ballhawk skills that really transform that D's potential for big plays.   Garrett (generational level talent like Mack/Von) & Ogbah's supporting work along with Ogbujoni's being a terror inside, mean that they win in trench battles and get after the QB really well.   And Peppers' run support as a SS (how they thought he should learn Year 1 as a FS is beyond me, his skill set screams SS) really has helped them in a big way.  They could still use another ILB force and more CB depth, but they have the $ (no longer the early picks) to get those shored up, they don't need elite guys, just strong support guys now.   Then they'll be right up there with any of the big D's IMO.

JAX still belongs at the top with CHI, but I'd put CLE and BAL as legit D's as well.   BAL & NYJ's only issue is that I don't know that they can keep up their success in pass rush, while I have nothing but love for Suggs, he's getting up there, so I don't know if he can hold up for 16 games, and he's simply not at the same level as Mack/Garrett/Von (who ironically, is suffering from what Mack did in OAK - no other guys who can make the D's lay off double teams / moving play away from him - Chubb's still learning the game, and the concerns that he's not an alpha pass rusher seem spot on at this time, while he is showing a very well-rounded game).   So I see JAX/CHI/CLE as built to last....NYJ/BAL are great D's, but vulnerable to keeping that when they face good OL's, because I don't think their pass rush is nearly at the same level as CHI/CLE (and even JAX) can generate (JAX isn't quite as good as what CHI/CLE can bring now pass-rush, but their coverage is just that much better to make up for it).

The one D who could move up quickly - LAC once Bosa returns, and Liuget is just back.   The key there besides Bosa is how well the LB's play in run support, that's been a weakness of theirs b4.  Perryman upping his game as the Mike would make a huge diff this year to making that run D better. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

BAL & NYJ's only issue is that I don't know that they can keep up their success in pass rush, while I have nothing but love for Suggs, he's getting up there, so I don't know if he can hold up for 16 games, and he's simply not at the same level as Mack/Garrett/Von (who ironically, is suffering from what Mack did in OAK - no other guys who can make the D's lay off double teams / moving play away from him

Our OLB group was supposed to be one of our best units coming into the season, but you can see that by sack %, we're a below average unit at getting to the QB. Suggs has been a monster for us to start the year, but he's also playing over 65% of the snaps in each game. Matthew Judon, our other starting OLB, has been a huge disappointment this year and has contributed literally nothing to the pass rush.

On the other side of the coin, Tim Williams (our 3rd round pick from Alabama last year) and Za'Darius Smith (in a contract year) have been by far our best pass rushers aside from Suggs. Williams didn't play this last week because of a hamstring injury and Smith still had a good game.

Overall I agree with this assessment of our defense. Our pass rush comes and goes, and has largely been disappointing. We have nobody who can push the pocket from the inside, despite having Brandon Williams and Michael Pierce - they offer nothing in the pass rush game and just play pattycake taking up blockers. If our pass rush continues to middle, and Suggs continues to play over 60% of the snaps, by the time winter arrives and we need him to play more snaps because teams are running he's going to be gassed.

[NJerseypaint]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

BAL & NYJ's only issue is that I don't know that they can keep up their success in pass rush...NYJ/BAL are great D's, but vulnerable to keeping that when they face good OL's, because I don't think their pass rush is nearly at the same level as CHI/CLE (and even JAX) can generate (JAX isn't quite as good as what CHI/CLE can bring now pass-rush, but their coverage is just that much better to make up for it).

 

Jets don't even have a pass rush and definitely don't deserve to be in the same discussion as CHI/CLE/JAX. Only time we get to the QB is when we send 6 or more.

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, NJerseypaint said:

Jets don't even have a pass rush and definitely don't deserve to be in the same discussion as CHI/CLE/JAX. Only time we get to the QB is when we send 6 or more.

We made them look a lot better than what they are normally like on D.   But yeah, more when you look at DVOA, they show up as #5. I agree there's a huge gap between the top 3 and the next group.  

But you kept your 1st round pick next year, so....you're getting there.

[Calvert28]

12 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

 

As of week 4. I'll post an updated version later in the week.

TM	DEFENSE DVOA	RK	PASS DEF	PASS RK	RUSH DEF	RUSH RK	VAR.	RK	SCHED	RK	Red Zone	RK	Takeaways	RK	Scoring %	RK	TO/Drive	RK	Sack %	RK	INT %	RK	Press rate %	RK
CHI	-30.00%	1	-31.60%	1	-27.30%	5	1.50%	6	-9.90%	27	29.70%	23	11	2	24.4	3	24.4	1	11.6	1	5.8	2	30.8%	11
JAX	-18.70%	2	-12.30%	6	-26.50%	6	2.30%	7	-10.50%	29	-77.90%	2	3	25	30.4	9	4.3	32	7.3	10	0.8	27	28.9%	13
BAL	-18.20%	3	-12.40%	5	-28.30%	4	7.90%	26	-8.50%	26	-63.40%	3	5	14	24	2	10	18	6	19	2.6	12	24.9%	24
CLE	-16.70%	4	-12.60%	4	-22.40%	7	1.40%	5	0.30%	16	-9.60%	11	13	1	27	4	20.6	3	6.8	12	4.2	5	25.8%	21
NYJ	-15.20%	5	-18.40%	2	-10.80%	16	6.40%	25	-5.80%	23	-3.90%	14	10	3	28.3	7	18.9	4	6.3	15	4	6	25.5%	22
SEA	-11.80%	6	-9.00%	9	-15.00%	10	3.80%	13	-10.10%	28	1.10%	19	9	6	29.2	8	18.8	5	6.3	15	5.2	3	27.0%	18
MIA	-11.60%	7	-9.00%	8	-14.80%	12	5.60%	19	-7.30%	25	-37.40%	5	10	3	36.2	16	21.3	2	3.8	29	5.9	1	22.0%	28
PHI	-10.00%	8	-1.30%	12	-28.40%	3	12.10%	29	-1.60%	18	-37.40%	6	4	21	33.3	12	8.3	22	6.4	14	1.9	19	32.0%	8
LAR	-8.20%	9	-10.00%	7	-4.90%	23	5.90%	21	-2.50%	20	-0.50%	17	7	8	31.7	10	17.1	7	5.2	25	2.7	10	36.1%	1
IND	-7.70%	10	0.90%	13	-18.80%	8	0.60%	2	4.80%	9	-3.60%	15	8	7	42.1	23	14	11	7.9	5	2.5	13	28.2%	14
ARI	-7.10%	11	-3.00%	11	-10.40%	18	2.60%	8	8.90%	4	1.20%	20	4	21	40.5	19	9.5	20	7.5	8	1.6	22	32.4%	6
WAS	-5.00%	12	-15.60%	3	12.70%	31	1.10%	3	-14.40%	32	30.60%	25	5	14	20.6	1	14.7	9	6	19	2.7	10	30.9%	10
GB	-3.10%	13	-4.90%	10	-0.30%	26	19.20%	32	-12.90%	31	3.40%	21	6	10	27.7	5	12.8	12	8.7	4	2.9	9	33.3%	5
BUF	-1.30%	14	4.50%	15	-11.40%	14	6.30%	24	6.70%	6	69.80%	32	6	10	38	17	12	14	5.9	21	1.3	24	27.5%	16
TEN	-0.30%	15	1.00%	14	-2.30%	25	4.90%	18	-0.50%	17	-116.10%	1	5	14	32.6	11	10.9	16	7.7	6	2.1	17	25.0%	23
NE	0.60%	16	10.30%	17	-11.80%	13	6.30%	23	0.60%	15	-29.10%	8	10	3	33.3	12	16.7	8	3.4	32	3	8	34.2%	4
DEN	0.90%	17	8.30%	16	-10.40%	19	3.20%	11	9.30%	3	30.40%	24	3	25	38.3	18	6.4	28	6.3	15	1.3	24	32.3%	7
HOU	1.80%	18	26.80%	29	-31.90%	2	2.90%	9	-5.80%	22	60.70%	31	5	14	41.7	21	8.3	22	6.7	13	0.7	28	19.8%	31
PIT	3.60%	19	12.80%	19	-10.70%	17	15.30%	30	6.20%	7	-2.50%	16	7	8	35.7	15	12.5	13	7.5	8	2.5	13	31.7%	9
DAL	3.90%	20	20.60%	26	-15.00%	11	4.70%	17	-2.00%	19	43.60%	29	2	32	33.3	12	4.8	30	10	3	0	32	35.9%	3
LAC	4.10%	21	12.60%	18	-5.60%	22	3.00%	10	1.70%	14	-20.80%	10	6	10	40.5	19	14.3	10	5.7	22	3.8	7	36.0%	2
SF	4.70%	22	18.20%	23	-17.00%	9	1.30%	4	13.40%	1	20.90%	22	3	25	43.5	25	6.5	27	4.6	27	0.6	30	27.3%	17
CIN	4.70%	23	15.20%	21	-11.10%	15	5.80%	20	4.60%	10	-6.70%	13	5	14	46.7	30	11.1	15	5.5	23	1.8	20	24.2%	25
CAR	6.80%	24	14.30%	20	-4.50%	24	4.10%	16	7.00%	5	51.60%	30	6	10	28.1	6	18.8	5	7.2	11	4.9	4	26.1%	20
MIN	7.20%	25	19.00%	25	-7.60%	20	17.10%	31	-7.00%	24	-35.40%	7	4	21	45.7	28	8.7	21	7.7	6	2.3	15	27.8%	15
OAK	11.70%	26	18.40%	24	2.90%	28	9.20%	28	5.90%	8	-45.20%	4	5	14	42	22	10	18	3.6	30	2.3	15	19.7%	32
DET	11.80%	27	23.80%	28	0.70%	27	4.00%	15	-11.70%	30	-22.90%	9	3	25	46.5	29	4.7	31	11.5	2	2	18	21.4%	29
NYG	12.70%	28	16.50%	22	8.20%	29	3.50%	12	4.50%	11	-7.70%	12	3	25	45.2	27	7.1	24	3.6	30	1.5	23	30.8%	12
NO	13.80%	29	50.70%	32	-41.30%	1	8.40%	27	-3.30%	21	-0.10%	18	3	25	42.2	24	6.7	26	6.3	15	0.7	28	20.0%	30
ATL	18.10%	30	22.20%	27	11.90%	30	4.00%	14	11.30%	2	38.50%	28	4	21	47.7	31	6.8	25	4.5	28	1.8	20	24.1%	26
KC	25.00%	31	28.60%	30	18.60%	32	0.20%	1	2.20%	13	33.90%	26	3	25	48.8	32	4.9	29	5.4	24	1.1	26	26.7%	19
TB	28.90%	32	50.60%	31	-7.00%	21	6.20%	22	3.20%	12	36.00%	27	5	14	44.7	26	10.6	17	4.8	26	0.6	30	22.2%	27

Some of these rankings are deceptive there are teams on here that are performing much better then these stats would suggest.

[El Ramster]

Rams generate mad pressure. Just can't get home smh.

[Jlowe22]

So, all NFC south teams in the bottom ten, and three in the bottom four?

I think our defense is a bit better than the stats show, but not too much.  The NFC South beats up on each other with good offense as well.

[vikingsrule]

On October 7, 2018 at 8:43 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

What happened to them? I'm not trying to troll or anything, I seriously want to know. They have so many incredible pieces on that defense with Rhodes, Smith, Barr and a ton on the DL. I though they'd be smashing teams

Not having Everson Griffen has hurt. We've faced some great QBs too in Rodgers, Goff and Wentz, all on the road.

The defense has been giving up a lot of big plays, very leaky right now. I think it will correct itself over the course of the season. Started out slow last year too.

[El Ramster]

22 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

Not having Everson Griffen has hurt. We've faced some great QBs too in Rodgers, Goff and Wentz, all on the road.

The defense has been giving up a lot of big plays, very leaky right now. I think it will correct itself over the course of the season. Started out slow last year too.

 

My dude said Goff 

 

 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, vikingsrule said:

Not having Everson Griffen has hurt. We've faced some great QBs too in Rodgers, Goff and Wentz, all on the road.

The defense has been giving up a lot of big plays, very leaky right now. I think it will correct itself over the course of the season. Started out slow last year too.

When you have Griffen and the girl bringing pressure, it's a tough combo.   When it's Danielle alone, teams can take that away.

Obviously he's got bigger issues, but if you can get Griffen back, that just changes your D's ability to bring pressure consistently, which then allows the rest of the pass D to play up.  

[JAF-N72EX]

15 hours ago, Calvert28 said:

Some of these rankings are deceptive there are teams on here that are performing much better then these stats would suggest.

Oh, absolutely. All stats are can be deceptive in some way, shape or form. But you have to kind of accept that, however. Beings that it's still this early in the season. Remember, these are from week 4 and so everything you saw this past weekend can &/or will undoubtedly change your perspective a little.  

That said, the methodology is still pretty solid and firm, IMO, and it can tell you alot more about the weaknesses and effectiveness of each team-- IF you look at it in the correct way and the way it was designed to be used as. 

Looking at a simple number or category rankings can be very deceiving unless you look at the rest of the data. 

For example, the Steelers defense and pass rush. After 4 weeks it may look good on paper (9th in pass pressure) but the majority of that came in week 1 against the Browns and a Fitz led Bucs, but not too much in those other 2 games. That's getting pressure at reasonable rate per dropback in only 50% of their games in short time. 

BUT, this is also illustrated in the overall numbers above where they ranked 19th in overall DVOA and 30th in Variance. 

This tells me that the Steelers defense have had short spurts of being good mixed with being very bad for a long stretch of plays. And after watching every Steelers game.....the eye test proves this to be true as well. When Dupree is leading your team in pass pressure (13.5)......something is wrong. (Although Cameron FINALLY closed that gap a bit in this last game (12.0)). 

Now after this past game against the Falcons where they got a ton of pressure on Ryan, I expect these numbers (DVOA, VAR and pressure rate) to rise but not too much, however. Because while the Falcons offense were ranked 7th in overall DVOA prior to the game, they ranked 30th in adjusted OL against the run, only 20th in adj pass pro, 31st in Var and 24th in schedule. So despite having a good defensive showing, the numbers will show all of this and compensate for it.

As of right now --prior to the 3rd revision (which should come either tomorrow or the next day)--I have their pressure rate percentage up from 31.7% to 34.1% from last week ( a good rate mind you), which would place them from 9th to 5th. Their overall DVOA went from 19th to only 16th. And the Variance is still at 12%--30th in the league.