GDT Week 4: KC @ DEN

[jolly red giant]

Haven't got time to do anything else - but someone had to take the plunge

 

[DiehardBronxFan]

KC playing like the best team in the AFC ATM.  We’re going to get destroyed. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if we keep the margin to single digits.  Predict today is the beginning of the end for VJ.  Broncos have enough talent to be competitive, but Reid will totally school VJ & Co. 

[lomaxgrUK]

I really don't see anything other than a lopsided KC win. We don't have the athletes in our Secondary and LB core to handle the athletes that KC have on Offense. It really is that simple; you don't have to go into how Andy Reid is a far, far superior Schemer than Joe Woods.

Sure, KC's defense has been poor but our Offense hasn't shown the ability to move the ball on two average (at best) units in Seattle and Oakland (the latter just gave up 42 points to the Browns).

We're going to have to get very creative on both sides of the ball and get a lot of luck to stay in this one. That or a huge win in the turnover battle.

[Royal_VT]

I think we win purely because everyone else (myself included) thinks we lose big. Classic trap game for KC....Broncos 34 Chiefs 21.

[BroncosFan2010]

KC should steamroll us. Their defense has been poor, but on paper its alot more talented than its recent play. They are going to improve as the year goes on IMO, and I wouldnt be suprised to see a suprisingly good defensive game from KC going against our 'meh' offensive talent.

On defense, we just dont have the speed to keep up with them, but then again IDK if anyone does. Im sorta ashamed that I am (arguably) more excited to watch Hill and Mahomes than my own team. Please dont hurt me.

[champ11]

I think there is a ~slim chance~ we have an outlier game and pull out a win. Mahomes first primetime game (right?) and we play pretty well in primetime at home early in the season traditionally. Mahomes could come back to earth tonight, although I doubt it. Case is kind of playing for the fans' support and Vance obviously has his job on the line on a week to week basis pretty much. 
 

That being said, I just don't see how our defense can contain big plays. I feel like Reid will be able to exploit what we are trying to do defensively by playing conservative trying to prevent big plays. We obviously have no answer for Kelce and our secondary hasn't shown out well enough for me to have confidence in them stopping Hill. 

My prediction that I feel really good about tonight: big game for Sutton. He's due for some big plays.

Safe money is a big KC win for sure, though. We're an average team at best and our offense has not shown the firepower to keep up 

[broncofan48]

7 minutes ago, champ11 said:

I think there is a ~slim chance~ we have an outlier game and pull out a win. Mahomes first primetime game (right?) and we play pretty well in primetime at home early in the season traditionally. Mahomes could come back to earth tonight, although I doubt it. Case is kind of playing for the fans' support and Vance obviously has his job on the line on a week to week basis pretty much. 
 

That being said, I just don't see how our defense can contain big plays. I feel like Reid will be able to exploit what we are trying to do defensively by playing conservative trying to prevent big plays. We obviously have no answer for Kelce and our secondary hasn't shown out well enough for me to have confidence in them stopping Hill. 

My prediction that I feel really good about tonight: big game for Sutton. He's due for some big plays.

Safe money is a big KC win for sure, though. We're an average team at best and our offense has not shown the firepower to keep up 

Hope so, started him in my flex, got a 8 point lead and Sutton vs Mahomes.  Odds are I lose but hoping Sutton shows out

[broncofan48]

As far as the game goes;

Unless we get some lucky bounces and/or the offense plays out of its mind this will be a beat down.  Could see Von getting a sack or 2, those need to be strip sacks.  Hill has been a huge issue the last few years and that doesn't stop tonight.  Kelce might as well be playing a JV high school team as open as he will be.  That doesn't even touch on Hunt.  For this game to be close Denver needs to have 0 turnovers on offense and very few punts.  30+ is needed

[Royal_VT]

Think big palooka was right all along and this is the week we see King implode and get a personal foul? 

[BroncosFan2010]

Quote

Think big palooka was right all along and this is the week we see King implode and get a personal foul? 

If we are making grim perdictions then let me throw my hat in the ring; Case is boo'd by Denver fans by midway through the 3rd quarter.

[AKRNA]

It seems like all the cards are in KC's favor, but: It's Monday Night in Mile High, KC riding high, and IMO all bets are off. For those of you that have never seen it, here's a video from a Monday night matchup against KC 28 years ago, one of the greatest hits in history. The Bronco's ended the season 5-11, the Chiefs 11-5 but that Monday night was Denvers.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/motorsports/steve-atwaters-hit-on-christian-okoye/vp-AAvyNaR

 

[Broncofan]

We're home dogs for good reason, but if we look at the matchups a little further, there's some reason for hope besides HFA, namely:

1.  Our OL vs. their DL - our team's pass protection struggles are well-documented, but if there's a get-well game to try and exploit, it's this one.   Outside of Dee Ford, no one really brings the heat to the QB on the Chiefs DL this year.   Now, Justin Houston had a great game vs. SF, but again with the home-field advantage of that split-second slower OL response off the snap, it offers more hope our beleaguered OL can keep the pocket clean long enough for our O to exploit ...

2.  Our WR's vs. their DB's - really, other than WAS import Kendall Fuller, all the matchups work in our favor vs. a very soft Chiefs secondary (who are opportunistic - more on that later), and can be beat for big plays/points.   DT did bounce back in catching all of his targets (and had a 40-yard play called back on one of the unfortunate OL penalties last week too).  Sanders is in peak shape, and while Sutton's learning through the rookie phase ropes, if there's a matchup to take advantage of, it's this one.    Really, it comes down to our OL creating enough time tonight, and Keenum making better decisions & throws.   The matchups are there to take advantage

3.  Our run blocking vs. their run D - their run D with Benny Logan gone, and 2 rookies manning 0-tech, and new ILB's getting into KC's D, the run D has been equally soft.   If we could get a lead or keep it to 1-score or less in the 4Q, then we'd be set up to slowly wear them out (a big if, to be sure).

4.  No Eric Berry - huge break for us there.  Sounds like he's out for a while (although I will say Eric Murray has played well in his absence).

Now, those are the reasons for hope.  The problems as I see it:

1.  That KC O - Mahomes is red-hot, but it's also a function of just how uncoverable Tyreek Hill.  T-Hill is a nightmare for us - because his type (joystick speed merchant) is the one player profile that gives Harris fits.  So we can't really shut him down with ISO island coverage.  And zone or man vs. our other guys is just not getting it done, either.       Given how poor we are against TE's, Travis Kelce has to be licking his chops.  And we get to Sammy Watkins as the #2 WR facing our other CB's, and Kareem Hunt (although mystifyingly used less than Spencer Ware) vs. our LB's, well, mismatches all around.   

2.  KC's D is very opportunistic for TO's on mistakes - Keenum's mistakes in judgment / late throws are a huge problem vs. that very soft KC D - because while they will give up big plays, they will absolutely pounce on late throws.   Their 8 INT's reflects their gambling nature - which for a QB who makes late reads or bad decisions, well, it's a problem.   Keenum's got to make quick reads and good decisions, and not be late.   So far, he's not shown that - hopefully a clean pocket will help, but this is a major reason for our pessimism.   Lose the TO game, with that O, and it's game over for us.

3.  KC's ST's - not just Tyreke Hill, but their cover units are fantastic.  Once again, #1 in DVOA this year, after being a top unit last year.   Say what you will about his HC interviews apparently being bland, but Dave Toub is a ST genius.   As much as we're still much-improved from last year's disaster, we're not at KC's level most weeks. 

4.  K-Hunt as a closer - if the Chiefs jump out ahead, K-Hunt's ability to wear us down really creates a double-edged sword.   Not just wearing our D down, but also winning the ToP battle, which is key in altitude.

All in all, I think 4 factors decide the game:

1.  How many mistakes Keenum makes, vs. Mahomes.

2.  How quickly our pass rush can get pressure early to Mahomes (without it, we're sunk on D).

3.   The TO battle (have to be +2 or better to have a shot at winning this IMO)

4.  ST battles for field position / converting on kicks.

I'd love to call the DEN upset, but my head says it's something like 34-24 KC when it's all said and done.   Would be very happy to be wrong here.   The thing is, with how hard the schedule is, a L here would pretty much demonstrate the 7-9/8-8 predicted outcome Vegas has for us seems about right (3 of first 4 games at home, and SEA/OAK already out of way).

At least we only have 6 hours to game time!

[big_palooka]

4 hours ago, Royal_VT said:

Think big palooka was right all along and this is the week we see King implode and get a personal foul? 

At this point, he just needs to get back to actually being a good punter. He's ranked 22nd I believe I read and the Broncos have put him on notice. Read this from some Bronco beat guy, so not sure how accurate. 

[MakeDenverGreatAgain]

9 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

At this point, he just needs to get back to actually being a good punter. He's ranked 22nd I believe I read and the Broncos have put him on notice. Read this from some Bronco beat guy, so not sure how accurate. 

They signed a punter to the practice squad last week. He's on notice. Can't suck and make what he makes.

[kingseanjohn]

Hey everyone. I won't pretend to wish the Broncos good luck. But I do hope for a competitive and injury free game!

I didn't like the Keenum signing when it happened. I don't think he's the answer for you all. But I also haven't really seen him play in Denver yet.