Stock Investing

[ramssuperbowl99]

On 5/10/2022 at 7:30 AM, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Feel free to make fun of this in 3- to 6-months:

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

 

Investor confidence is pretty much at an all time low - more people think the market will go down in the next 6 months than even in 2009. What's interesting about that is how generally accurate people were in the aggregate - the all time low in investor confidence was within a week of the all time S&P 500 low.

So I'll say we're pretty much at the bottom now. Real life could get in the way and I could easily be wrong, I'm not investing any differently or anything, but just for fun I'll call my shot and say up for 2022 into early 2023.

lol nailed it

[Shockwave]

1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

What isn't?

Oil and the VIX 🙃

[bcb1213]

man, I'm thinking about hopping into SPG right now with that divident yield going so high and the stock getting beat up with everything else

[Shockwave]

1 hour ago, bcb1213 said:

man, I'm thinking about hopping into SPG right now with that divident yield going so high and the stock getting beat up with everything else

Has decent premium on the calls as well. Can sell the July 15th $110 call for about $115 bucks right now. So you could do a buy/write. Grab 100 shares at $97.50 sell the 110 call immediately. If the stock rises above 110 on July 15th the shares will be called away. You'll keep the $115 premium for the call and the capital gains from $97-$110. If it's still below $110 on July 15th your sold call expires worthless, you keep the $115 then turn around and sell another call for October. In the meantime you are the owner of the shares so you still collect the divs. Plus you can create your own divs by selling the covered calls. Triple income trade!

Or to add to that.. instead of buy/write you could sell a $95 put for June 17th for $150. So the market pays you $150 to buy 100 shares @ $95, then the market pays you $115 to sell your shares at $110. And you keep the capital gains from $95-110. Aka the wheel trade.

[bcb1213]

13 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

Has decent premium on the calls as well. Can sell the July 15th $110 call for about $115 bucks right now. So you could do a buy/write. Grab 100 shares at $97.50 sell the 110 call immediately. If the stock rises above 110 on July 15th the shares will be called away. You'll keep the $115 premium for the call and the capital gains from $97-$110. If it's still below $110 on July 15th your sold call expires worthless, you keep the $115 then turn around and sell another call for October. In the meantime you are the owner of the shares so you still collect the divs. Plus you can create your own divs by selling the covered calls. Triple income trade!

Or to add to that.. instead of buy/write you could sell a $95 put for June 17th for $150. So the market pays you $150 to buy 100 shares @ $95, then the market pays you $115 to sell your shares at $110. And you keep the capital gains from $95-110. Aka the wheel trade.

I'm not gonna lie, I don't know what the hell that means.  I'm in the KISS method of stocks...lol

[kingseanjohn]

4 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Oil and the VIX 🙃

Ticker DAWN (biopharmaceuticals) is currently up over 114% so far today. 
 

edit: Correction, over 118%. It’s average volume is ~287k and it’s already over 45mil so far. Looks like the beginning of a good ol pump and dump. 

Edited June 13, 2022 by kingseanjohn

[candyman93]

Time for a .75 hike.

 

Mcdonalds was the only one in green today lol

Edited June 13, 2022 by candyman93

[Heimdallr]

I am SO glad I locked in my mortgage rate last week

[Shockwave]

16 hours ago, bcb1213 said:

I'm not gonna lie, I don't know what the hell that means.  I'm in the KISS method of stocks...lol

Sounds like you swing trade though? It would enhance your trading returns if you learned how to put the power of options on your side. It's complicated and the learning curve is steep but once it clicks and you have that aha moment it'll all make sense.

[ramssuperbowl99]

16 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

edit: Correction, over 118%. It’s average volume is ~287k and it’s already over 45mil so far. Looks like the beginning of a good ol pump and dump. 

Or it's a company that posted positive brain cancer results: https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/new-day-pediatric-cancer-patients-day-one-unveils-positive-phase-2-data-brain-tumor-no

https://ir.dayonebio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/day-one-announces-positive-initial-data-pivotal-firefly-1-trial

Quote

Day One Biopharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: DAWN), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to developing and commercializing targeted therapies for people of all ages with life-threatening diseases, today announced positive initial data from the first 22 Response Assessment for Neuro-Oncology (“RANO”)-evaluable patients enrolled in the ongoing, open-label, single-arm, pivotal Phase 2 FIREFLY-1 clinical trial. FIREFLY-1 is evaluating tovorafenib (DAY101) as once-weekly monotherapy in patients aged 6 months to 25 years with relapsed or progressive pLGG, which is the most common brain tumor diagnosed in children and for which there are no approved therapies and there is no standard of care. The primary endpoint of the FIREFLY-1 trial is ORR by RANO criteria as assessed by blinded independent central review. Tovorafenib is an investigational, oral, brain-penetrant, highly-selective type II pan-RAF kinase inhibitor designed to target a key enzyme in the MAPK signaling pathway. FIREFLY-1 is being conducted in collaboration with the Pacific Pediatric Neuro-Oncology Consortium (PNOC) and is designed to support the potential regulatory approval of tovorafenib.

 

The people who have made money on this already bought in, because the data are priced in now. This is when you would sell to cash in, or hold and wait for the entire company to be bought out.

[candyman93]

 

[candyman93]

Crypto is getting destroyed 

 

[kingseanjohn]

4 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Or it's a company that posted positive brain cancer results: https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/new-day-pediatric-cancer-patients-day-one-unveils-positive-phase-2-data-brain-tumor-no

https://ir.dayonebio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/day-one-announces-positive-initial-data-pivotal-firefly-1-trial

 

The people who have made money on this already bought in, because the data are priced in now. This is when you would sell to cash in, or hold and wait for the entire company to be bought out.

I saw that later after doing some more digging. I’ll keep a eye on them and consider buying in before the full findings are released in 1st quarter 2023. I also saw this:

Quote

…Promisingly for the biotech stock, no patients have discontinued treatment due to a side effect related to the drug. The most common side effects were increases in an enzyme called creatine in the blood, rash and hair color changes. But more than a third of patients, 36%, experienced serious side effects…

Source

That 36% number just seems awful high to me to be considered successful. I didn’t really find any elaboration on what the serious side effects were though. 

[ramssuperbowl99]

21 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said:

I’ll keep a eye on them and consider buying in before the full findings are released in 1st quarter 2023.

You already missed out.

On 6/7/2022 at 11:09 AM, ramssuperbowl99 said:

If you're going to invest in speculative pharma, and tbh, I'd argue most people shouldn't, target companies with 1-3 drug pipelines that are all variants of the same general idea, with the leading candidate in Phase 1. Done right, those companies should be looking to sell off of a first in human study with positive efficacy biomarkers. Sell upon good data press releases, or if you really want to get cute hold and sell once the company is bought out. 6-18 months ish.

Yesterday was the good data press release.

21 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said:

That 36% number just seems awful high to me to be considered successful. I didn’t really find any elaboration on what the serious side effects were though. 

https://ir.dayonebio.com/node/7101/pdf

Quote

Initial safety data, based on the first 25 patients, indicated monotherapy tovorafenib to be generally well-tolerated. The majority of adverse events (AEs) were grade 1 or 2 in nature; the most common (≥25% any grade) treatment related AEs were increase in blood creatine phosphokinase, rash, and hair color changes. Treatment-related AEs of grade 3 or greater occurred in nine patients (36%).

This is terminology that you are getting stuck on.

An AE (adverse event) can be mild, moderate, or severely graded, but is always less significant than an SAE (serious adverse event), which is something that may result in immediate hospitalization, death, permanent disability, etc. etc. Severely graded AEs are not always as significant as SAEs. There were no SAE's on the study, and if there were, the conclusion would not be "generally well-tolerated".

More generally, this is a drug for metastatic brain tumors in children where there is no current treatment. Unless the side effects are imminently fatal or cause a serious patient quality of life issue, they do not matter.

 

I haven't read the in-depth results, but there's nothing publicly available that would concern me with the safety profile of the drug.

 

EDIT: Caught a "serious" instead of "severe" AE and fixed that, so hopefully it's less confusing.

Edited June 14, 2022 by ramssuperbowl99

[bcb1213]

6 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Sounds like you swing trade though? It would enhance your trading returns if you learned how to put the power of options on your side. It's complicated and the learning curve is steep but once it clicks and you have that aha moment it'll all make sense.

not really a day trader.  Sometimes I'll buy something cause I think i can make a quick 10-15%.  But most of the time I'm more looking into longer term stuff