Checking in with Trubisky

[Superman(DH23)]

54 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

I wouldn't call 2.7 pretty average for a first year WR who is lining up all over the field. Granted 2.7 is the exact average among WR's, but look at last years averages for some of the best wide-outs in the game.

DeAndre Hopkins	2.1
Antonio Brown	2.6
Julio Jones	2.4
A.J. Green	2.4
Adam Thielen	2.7
Demaryius Thomas	2.3
Mike Evans	2.1
Alshon Jeffery	1.8

 

Edit: Keep in mind, most WR's don't start to peak until year 2. Miller is going to be a beast--especially if he is given a full-time X or Z position. Which I expect to be next year.....maybe even late in the season this year. 

% of TDs inside the 5

Mahomes = 32% of 28 total -- 7 Pass \ 2 Rush
Trubisky = 29% of 17 total -- 4 Pass \ 1 Rush
Watson = 50% of 16 total -- 7 Pass \ 1 Rush

Trubisky in 2017
44% of 9 total -- 2 Pass / 2 Rush

And this is why I dont like advanced stats.  4 of the 6 "yac" TDs were goalline plays and another was from inside the 10.  When you just say he had 6 TDs he threw the ball 3 yards or less from the LOS, it sounds like hes getting an unusual YAC benefit, but if you look in context he can't throw the ball much deeper in those situations.  I'd also be curious of those 5 how many were setup by a long pass during that series.  This is why football is not the analytics game.

[JAF-N72EX]

25 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

And this is why I dont like advanced stats.  4 of the 6 "yac" TDs were goalline plays and another was from inside the 10.  When you just say he had 6 TDs he threw the ball 3 yards or less from the LOS, it sounds like hes getting an unusual YAC benefit, but if you look in context he can't throw the ball much deeper in those situations.  I'd also be curious of those 5 how many were setup by a long pass during that series.  This is why football is not the analytics game.

1) Those are not advanced stats. 2) Advanced stats can tell you all of that and much more.

[beardown3231]

Can someone make a GDT for tomorrow?

[blkwdw13]

1 hour ago, beardown3231 said:

Can someone make a GDT for tomorrow?

Who made last weeks?

[beardown3231]

9 minutes ago, blkwdw13 said:

Who made last weeks?

@WindyCity

[WindyCity]

You want some legit film analysis, this is someone who has experience and actually watches and breaks down the tape.

https://twitter.com/danorlovsky7/status/1059852135108620288

[dll2000]

I think it’s pretty clear now that Mahomes is legit star and Goff is very good and Watson is pretty good.

Still kind of amazed how Goff went from certified bust to good to stud in 3 years. Actually that used to be a fairly common progression and people didn’t jump to conclusions so early.

However some other QBs people were really high on once upon a time are looking like or are busts.

TB QB is benched. I can’t remember his name right now for some reason. It’s blocked from my brain. 

Mariotta Spelling? stinks. Titans are loaded with talent.  That team should be contenders. 

Prescott stinks worse.  Dallas f’d up. 

Wentz has not rebounded from his injury and has been mediocre.  He’ll probably bounce back next season and may this year. Jury still out on him.  

It looks at this point like the Bears didn’t get the optimal choice of his class, but given state of league (most of best QBs are old), they are in good shape relatively speaking.  

Trubisky for all his faults and big misses has also shown ability and promise and Bears are scoring many more points than they have in years. 

Things are good for Bears.  

[topwop1]

5 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I think it’s pretty clear now that Mahomes is legit star and Goff is very good and Watson is pretty good.

Still kind of amazed how Goff went from certified bust to good to stud in 3 years. Actually that used to be a fairly common progression and people didn’t jump to conclusions so early.

However some other QBs people were really high on once upon a time are looking like or are busts.

TB QB is benched. I can’t remember his name right now for some reason. It’s blocked from my brain. 

Mariotta Spelling? stinks. Titans are loaded with talent.  That team should be contenders. 

Prescott stinks worse.  Dallas f’d up. 

Wentz has not rebounded from his injury and has been mediocre.  He’ll probably bounce back next season and may this year. Jury still out on him.  

It looks at this point like the Bears didn’t get the optimal choice of his class, but given state of league (most of best QBs are old), they are in good shape relatively speaking.  

Trubisky for all his faults and big misses has also shown ability and promise and Bears are scoring many more points than they have in years. 

Things are good for Bears.  

Call me crazy, but I'd take Carson Wentz over any of the QB's you just mentioned including Mitchy boy, even though I'm a big supporter of his. IMO he's the complete package at QB.  We aren't seeing him at his best right now because he's still not 100% after tearing up his knee last year.  He will be back.

I also think Mitch compares well to him if you watch the way they both play the game, although Wentz is further advanced right now in his ability to read defenses.  Just my two cents.

Also, I think Mariota is better than you are giving him credit for.  3 different offensive coordinators in his first 4 years in the NFL.  I think the will do well with more time in the current offense with Matt LaFleur as his OC.

[JAF-N72EX]

All I wanted (still want) to see from him is progression and not regression and overall all he has done that. 

Just to recap some of his issues in the first part of the season and ones that I have seen get better.

• 1) Relying on too heavily on YAC and shorter routes. 
• 2) Not trusting him arm.
• 3) Not reading the defense and relying too much on Nagy's game plan and script plays.
• 4) Looked very uncomfortable in the pocket and would bail far too early.
• 5) Was folding under even the slightest bit of pressure. 
• 6) Was relying too much on his first 2 reads and would force the ball even with an a open man elsewhere.
• 7) Was very inconsistent on his throws. Both ball placement and accuracy.
• 8) Was not throwing the ball away when he should have (most of the sacks were mostly on him)

As of right now, if I were to take this same list above and use a color code to showcase;
which ones he has improved improved drastically on
which ones he has improved but still needs to work on-
which ones he is still having trouble with

 ....the list would look like something like this as of right now.

• 1) Relying on too heavily on YAC and shorter routes. 
• 2) Not trusting him arm.
• 3) Not reading the defense and relying too much on Nagy's game plan and script plays.
• 4) Looked very uncomfortable in the pocket and would bail far too early.
• 5) Was folding under even the slightest bit of pressure. 
• 6) Was relying too much on his first 2 reads and would force the ball even with an a open man elsewhere.
• 7) Was very inconsistent on his throws. Both ball placement and accuracy.
• 8) Was not throwing the ball away when he should have (most of the sacks were mostly on him)

=====================================================
Now as I'm sure you guys know by now, I have been Mitch's biggest critic. I'm still skeptic, but as you can see above, even I can see that Mitch has come along way since week 1 and is progressively getting better as the season goes. I don't know what his overall raw stats look like these last 2 games but overall I thought he has played pretty well. Started out rough in the first half of both games(not all on him) but rebounded nicely in the 2nd half. 

The inconsistency on his throws and knowing when to just concede and throw the ball away are definitely his biggest issues right now, IMO. 

He still has some work to do, like always, but what I do like is that in the midst of improving, he is not turning the ball over at a high rate and that is a big plus in my book going forward because that means he is not throwing games away either.
 

[beardown3231]

6 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

All I wanted (still want) to see from him is progression and not regression and overall all he has done that. 

Just to recap some of his issues in the first part of the season and ones that I have seen get better.

• 1) Relying on too heavily on YAC and shorter routes. 
• 2) Not trusting him arm.
• 3) Not reading the defense and relying too much on Nagy's game plan and script plays.
• 4) Looked very uncomfortable in the pocket and would bail far too early.
• 5) Was folding under even the slightest bit of pressure. 
• 6) Was relying too much on his first 2 reads and would force the ball even with an a open man elsewhere.
• 7) Was very inconsistent on his throws. Both ball placement and accuracy.
• 8) Was not throwing the ball away when he should have (most of the sacks were mostly on him)

As of right now, if I were to take this same list above and use a color code to showcase;
which ones he has improved improved drastically on
which ones he has improved but still needs to work on-
which ones he is still having trouble with

 ....the list would look like something like this as of right now.

• 1) Relying on too heavily on YAC and shorter routes. 
• 2) Not trusting him arm.
• 3) Not reading the defense and relying too much on Nagy's game plan and script plays.
• 4) Looked very uncomfortable in the pocket and would bail far too early.
• 5) Was folding under even the slightest bit of pressure. 
• 6) Was relying too much on his first 2 reads and would force the ball even with an a open man elsewhere.
• 7) Was very inconsistent on his throws. Both ball placement and accuracy.
• 8) Was not throwing the ball away when he should have (most of the sacks were mostly on him)

=====================================================
Now as I'm sure you guys know by now, I have been Mitch's biggest critic. I'm still skeptic, but as you can see above, even I can see that Mitch has come along way since week 1 and is progressively getting better as the season goes. I don't know what his overall raw stats look like these last 2 games but overall I thought he has played pretty well. Started out rough in the first half of both games(not all on him) but rebounded nicely in the 2nd half. 

The inconsistency on his throws and knowing when to just concede and throw the ball away are definitely his biggest issues right now, IMO. 

He still has some work to do, like always, but what I do like is that in the midst of improving, he is not turning the ball over at a high rate and that is a big plus in my book going forward because that means he is not throwing games away either.
 

Very good write up, JAF. I know we have our disagreements, specifically on this, but I agree with everything you have written.

Dan Orlovsky put out a tweet today with a video explanation on why he is such a fan and how MT is improving by the week

[WindyCity]

I truly believe as he gets more comfortable in the offense the mechanics can become more of a focus.

Right now the computer is struggling to process everything and the mechanics are what are dropping off.

[G08]

6 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

I truly believe as he gets more comfortable in the offense the mechanics can become more of a focus.

Right now the computer is struggling to process everything and the mechanics are what are dropping off.

They will.... I've listened to enough QBs during interviews/podcasts that talk about how your mechanics and accuracy will improve if you put in the time and work. They added that as you become more comfortable in the offense (ie less thinking and more reacting) it is even better.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

JAF, thanks for putting that together cleanly. I agree with your points and feel he is looking more natural in pocket and before the snap. I really feel like an improvement in footwork will make his game pop like so many others. When or whether it happens is anyone's guess, but he seems to have the makeup to get it done. 

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, topwop1 said:

Call me crazy, but I'd take Carson Wentz over any of the QB's you just mentioned including Mitchy boy, even though I'm a big supporter of his. IMO he's the complete package at QB.  We aren't seeing him at his best right now because he's still not 100% after tearing up his knee last year.  He will be back.

I also think Mitch compares well to him if you watch the way they both play the game, although Wentz is further advanced right now in his ability to read defenses.  Just my two cents.

Also, I think Mariota is better than you are giving him credit for.  3 different offensive coordinators in his first 4 years in the NFL.  I think the will do well with more time in the current offense with Matt LaFleur as his OC.

Wentz has been very good.  I wasn't calling him a bust.  I was super high on him coming out.  I thought Bears should trade up for him.  Still we have seen people look really good and then not be good anymore for whatever reason.

I think Mahomes has to be number 1 young QB over Wentz/Watson, he has outstanding weapons, and the pure speed of Hill changes everything, but he has still looked pretty amazing even given that.

I watched Mariota last night.  He sucks.  I'd take Mitch over him any day of the week.  

 

 

 

[Superman(DH23)]

So I just dug this up in a debate on comparisons, its food for thought.  Since week 4, Mahomes has 16 TDs and 7 Ints in 6 games.  Trubisky has 15 TDs and 4 Ints in 5 games. The only common opponent is NE Mahomes went 23-36 352 4 total TDs 2 Ints.  Trubisky went 26-50 333 with 3 Total TDs, 2 Ints.  You could also tack on 81 yards rushing for 10 vs Mahomes 9. The narrative doesnt fit the #s