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2019 Free Agent Discussion


Brit Pack

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1 hour ago, wgbeethree said:

Is Collins a playmaker though?

He had 5 of his career 8 INTs in a 4 game span. He has 3 INTs and 2 FFs in his other 55 career games.

Call me crazy but I'm just not a fan of DBs that can't cover.

I think he is.  Not overly worried about a lack of INTs.  Doesn't really mean a Safety can or can't cover.  Jamal Adams is arguably the best strong safety the NFL has too offer and he's got just 1 career INT.  

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"Landon Collins struggles in coverage" has very little to do with his low interception number, and more to do with the 127.8 passer rating against he gave up last year.  Of DBs who were the closest defender on at least 50 pass attempts last year, he was 81st out of 90.

Fundamentally he's a linebacker not a safety, just like Mark Barron.  Which is not to say that the Packers do not need play-making off-ball linebackers, but Collins will solve no problems at safety.  If you want to sign him to play moneybacker, then by all means do so.

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36 minutes ago, Leader said:

The issue most often mentioned in connection with Collins is his coverage skills.
He's a Box Safety - and has that down apparently - but get him chasing guys around the field.......

Some teams have been trying to use these S/LB hybrids the last few years and I'm wondering if there's a way to use him that way.  Maybe it doesn't reconcile the asking price but he's so good in the box I'm wondering if that is his future since SS seems to be dying off.

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1 minute ago, PossibleCabbage said:

"Landon Collins struggles in coverage" has very little to do with his low interception number, and more to do with the 127.8 passer rating against he gave up last year.  Of DBs who were the closest defender on at least 50 pass attempts last year, he was 81st out of 90.

Fundamentally he's a linebacker not a safety, just like Mark Barron.

I feel like that is selling him short to a degree. I'm not an expert and just flat out don't watch enough the last few years but sometimes a team asks too much of a guy in coverage from that position because they have to. 

Comparing him to Barron feels like selling him short...

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Even if last year was an aberration, at best Collins is adequate in coverage (previous two years he allowed a 70.1 and 94.8 passer rating, which is not great)- he's never going to be prime Earl Thomas.  I feel like if the Packers were going after a free agent linebacker "he's great up close to the line of scrimmage, but a liability in coverage" would be counted as more of a negative than the same being true about Collins.

 

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Collins is a good player, make no mistake, he's just not in that top two or three tiers of guys. There was a time when he'd have been a PREMIER talent in the league, but if you're not an elite cover guy, it's hard to be a true stud on the back end. 

Pettine could probably make that work, but what do you have to sacrifice to get there is the question. Are you playing him just as a WILB/2-Deep guy?

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Let's just sign Mark Barron at a fraction of the cost and then also sign Adrian Phillips and draft Adderly 30th overall.  

Draft Burns or Sweat 12th overall (or collectively **** our pants when Bosa pulls a Rodgers fall), then draft offense in the second, third and fourth rounds and win a Super Bowl against all odds.

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On 3/5/2019 at 2:30 PM, squire12 said:

Do you have an idea of what NFL players typically have for % of the contract that is guaranteed?   There are resources that have this information if you are not aware.

Which one do you use?

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2 minutes ago, jleisher said:
On 3/5/2019 at 2:30 PM, squire12 said:

Do you have an idea of what NFL players typically have for % of the contract that is guaranteed?   There are resources that have this information if you are not aware.

Which one do you use?

@jleisher

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/   The column toward the right has the % guaranteed

https://overthecap.com/contracts/  Similar. 

 

Since the contracts are the same for each player, the calculations should be similar....might be some small differences based on how accurate the site has for the real specifics of the language of the contract.

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17 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Pettine could probably make that work, but what do you have to sacrifice to get there is the question. Are you playing him just as a WILB/2-Deep guy?

I mean, if I'm drafting a guy and the value is fine at slot "he's good in run situations, but a liability in passing situations" is a thing I can live with.  If I'm going to pay the going rate for a name free agent though?

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12 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Let's just sign Mark Barron at a fraction of the cost and then also sign Adrian Phillips and draft Adderly 30th overall.  

Draft Burns or Sweat 12th overall (or collectively **** our pants when Bosa pulls a Rodgers fall), then draft offense in the second, third and fourth rounds and win a Super Bowl against all odds.

Mark Barron isn't good, and comparing Collins to him is insulting to Collins. Let's not pay any money at all to Mark Barron. 

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24 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Collins is a good player, make no mistake, he's just not in that top two or three tiers of guys. There was a time when he'd have been a PREMIER talent in the league, but if you're not an elite cover guy, it's hard to be a true stud on the back end. 

Pettine could probably make that work, but what do you have to sacrifice to get there is the question. Are you playing him just as a WILB/2-Deep guy?

If Josh Jones the prospect hit, you had Landon Collins. Now I know Capers was here when that pick was made, but it tells me at least that our scouting higher ups at the time like that mold of safety.

As the game becomes more and more of the college game with read plays in the run game, more bubbles/screens and jet sweeps, a safety to come down hill and protect the alleys will continue to be more and more important. Obviously you'll need another one back there in the mold of an Earl Thomas or you'll get killed in the deep game. Question is whether there's enough of a need for alley defense currently the way the game is to justify giving Collins the money he'll want.

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7 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

If Josh Jones the prospect hit, you had Landon Collins. Now I know Capers was here when that pick was made, but it tells me at least that our scouting higher ups at the time like that mold of safety.

As the game becomes more and more of the college game with read plays in the run game, more bubbles/screens and jet sweeps, a safety to come down hill and protect the alleys will continue to be more and more important. Obviously you'll need another one back there in the mold of an Earl Thomas or you'll get killed in the deep game. Question is whether there's enough of a need for alley defense currently the way the game is to justify giving Collins the money he'll want.

I don't think any of us know what Jones was if he hit. There was so much athleticism there and so little demonstrable sure-thing ability that you were going to have to pick a direction and groom him into that.

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24 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

If Josh Jones the prospect hit, you had Landon Collins. Now I know Capers was here when that pick was made, but it tells me at least that our scouting higher ups at the time like that mold of safety.

Agree. Unfortunate for us.....

15 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I don't think any of us know what Jones was if he hit. There was so much athleticism there and so little demonstrable sure-thing ability that you were going to have to pick a direction and groom him into that.

I had a higher opinion of Collins than I do now after actually reading about him. I still think him a good football player and an on the field presence / leader - but the Giants just let him walk. That matters.

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35 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I don't think any of us know what Jones was if he hit. There was so much athleticism there and so little demonstrable sure-thing ability that you were going to have to pick a direction and groom him into that.

I think this is fair.  Jones mostly got drafted on his athleticism and locker room presence, and to be fair he has both in spades.  In retrospect though, the NFL is moving away from the type of play he was most likely to succeed at (big swinging **** that wants to set the tone) and it was probably a mistake to take a guy who hadn't shown any real deep ability in the 2nd.  But you can see how a team sees those tools falling and just thinks "to hell with it, let's roll the dice."

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