Alex Smith requires emergency surgery; recovery time 6-8 months

[turtle28]

Even with Alex counting against the cap, we could still have around $40 million in cap space if we cut Norman and the cap goes up another $10 to $12 million.

I think Colt will open the season as our starter and we’ll draft a QB at some point.

[MKnight82]

5 minutes ago, Woz said:

Option A: Cut him outright in March. This is the most aggressive option, and it accelerates all of his guaranteed monies onto the 2019 cap. Because of that, the most unlikely possibility.

Option B: Cut him in March as a "June cut" / wait until after June to cut him. This would mean he would be dead cap for his 2019 monies in 2019, and all of his future monies in future years. Only reason to do it this way is if he says he's retiring and ain't coming back. Ever.

Option C: Put him on the PUP list and cross your fingers. Since his monies are guaranteed anyway, parking him on the PUP and hoping against hope that he can come back mid-2019 makes a little sense from a financial perspective. This is what I suspect they will do.

Option A won't happen unless we go full roster rebuild, and even then I suspect it wouldn't happen.  Because in any full blow up the roster we'd be trading other vets on the team and making their cap accelerate too.  (I'd like to point out I don't think we need to blow the roster up)

Option B is the most likely scenario IMO if we have a new GM.

Option C happens if Bruce Allen remains GM.  He will never admit to trading for Smith being a bad trade that early and will be stubborn.  

[Woz]

Just now, MKnight82 said:

Option B is the most likely scenario IMO if we have a new GM.

Option C happens if Bruce Allen remains GM.  He will never admit to trading for Smith being a bad trade that early and will be stubborn.  

Eh, I can see a new GM keeping Smith around on the PUP. The money is already gone and the cap space with it. As long as he doesn't file the retirement paperwork, you might as well hope he comes back.

I don't see him coming back, but there's no reason to close out the possibility of getting something out of him, even if it is just an incredibly overpaid backup.

[MKnight82]

2 minutes ago, Woz said:

Eh, I can see a new GM keeping Smith around on the PUP. The money is already gone and the cap space with it. As long as he doesn't file the retirement paperwork, you might as well hope he comes back.

For what purpose?  He's the old regime's guy.  He's aging, coming off a massive injury and we'll likely have our own fresh QB out of the draft.  You can't count on Smith to be a mentor in camp, because he likely won't be there, so we'll already have to have a veteran mentor on the roster.  So you're going to have Smith as a 3rd string QB if he comes back?  Smith would probably prefer to be released in that scenario.  

[Woz]

Just now, MKnight82 said:

For what purpose?  He's the old regime's guy.  He's aging, coming off a massive injury and we'll likely have our own fresh QB out of the draft.  You can't count on Smith to be a mentor in camp, because he likely won't be there, so we'll already have to have a veteran mentor on the roster.  So you're going to have Smith as a 3rd string QB if he comes back?  Smith would probably prefer to be released in that scenario.  

All things being equal, I think I like Smith as a veteran mentor more than I like Colt McCoy. Again, what harm does it do to keep him around? It's not like he'll be taking a roster spot and the cap space is already gone.

[MKnight82]

1 minute ago, Woz said:

All things being equal, I think I like Smith as a veteran mentor more than I like Colt McCoy. Again, what harm does it do to keep him around? It's not like he'll be taking a roster spot and the cap space is already gone.

Timing is the problem.  He won't be there in camp, so how can he be a mentor?  

[Woz]

Just now, MKnight82 said:

Timing is the problem.  He won't be there in camp, so how can he be a mentor?  

Eh? Why couldn't he be in camp?

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/pup-list-explained-rules-players-nfl-injured-reserve

Quote

Players who start the preseason on the PUP list may not practice until cleared by team medical personnel. They can attend team meetings and work out. Once cleared, they can return to the field.

If a player practices during training camp, they are not eligible for the PUP list. Instead, the team has to cut the player or put them on injured reserve. 

If a player finishes preseason on the PUP list, they can be placed on the regular season PUP list.

Players on the PUP list may not practice or play the first six weeks of the season. After the sixth week, the player must be allowed to return to practice, placed on injured reserved or released within five weeks.

I don't know if him standing on the sidelines counts as "returning to the field," but I suspect not since players do work out on the side of the fields.

[MKnight82]

13 minutes ago, Woz said:

Eh? Why couldn't he be in camp?

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/pup-list-explained-rules-players-nfl-injured-reserve

I don't know if him standing on the sidelines counts as "returning to the field," but I suspect not since players do work out on the side of the fields.

Due to the severity of his injury I would assume he'd be in the trainer's room doing physical therapy.  

[Woz]

Just now, MKnight82 said:

Due to the severity of his injury I would assume he'd be in the trainer's room doing physical therapy.  

Oh absolutely. But if they're keeping him as a veteran mentor, keep him on the field to talk the new QB or in the classroom sitting next to the kid.

[Skins212689]

Smith needs to be released if he can't play. No need to keep him around. Colt knows the offense better than him. So if a QB is kept to teach the new guy, Colt should be the one doing the teaching. 

[Woz]

Just now, Skins212689 said:

Smith needs to be released if he can't play. No need to keep him around. Colt knows the offense better than him. So if a QB is kept to teach the new guy, Colt should be the one doing the teaching. 

Why?

Colt has a disincentive to help the new QB (if the rookie starts, he doesn't). Having Smith work with the rookie allows Colt to focus on being ready.

Again, Smith will count against the cap regardless, and if he's on the PUP he isn't taking a roster spot.

[Skins212689]

1 hour ago, Woz said:

Why?

Colt has a disincentive to help the new QB (if the rookie starts, he doesn't). Having Smith work with the rookie allows Colt to focus on being ready.

Again, Smith will count against the cap regardless, and if he's on the PUP he isn't taking a roster spot.

How is he gonna help being in the training room? He's gonna cost us regardless. He doesn't know this offense better than Colt. Let Smith recover in peace and move on with his life. I don't see keeping him around beneficial at all. Colt on the other hand if Gruden is kept helps with knowing the offense (even if that meant him possibly starting next year) Now if we get a new coach they both can go. 

[turtle28]

Vernon Davis: Alex Smith is most resilient man I've ever met. Josh Norman said Smith has a “warrior type mentality.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/12/07/vernon-davis-alex-smith-is-most-resilient-man-ive-ever-met/ via @ProFootballTalk

[Slateman]

16 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Even with Alex counting against the cap, we could still have around $40 million in cap space if we cut Norman and the cap goes up another $10 to $12 million.

I think Colt will open the season as our starter and we’ll draft a QB at some point.

yes, but the team also needs

At least one starting offensive linemen and a backup LT (Nsekhe is a free agent)

Backup/starter quality safeties

And edge rusher

Oh and I believe we want to extend Ioannidis. And Scherf's cap hit doubles.

 

Sorry, but there is no way  you can downplay how dramatic the effect would be if Smith can't play next season. You remember when we were penalized a few years ago? That's basically what Smith not playing would be. A cap penalty.

[lavar703]

36 minutes ago, Slateman said:

yes, but the team also needs

At least one starting offensive linemen and a backup LT (Nsekhe is a free agent)

Backup/starter quality safeties

And edge rusher

Oh and I believe we want to extend Ioannidis. And Scherf's cap hit doubles.

 

Sorry, but there is no way  you can downplay how dramatic the effect would be if Smith can't play next season. You remember when we were penalized a few years ago? That's basically what Smith not playing would be. A cap penalty.

Norman and Brown will most likely be gone. So that’s roughly $14-15M in cap space. There’s no way Crowder and Smith are going to be re-signed and I would assume Vernon Davis goes as well. Also, I’d need to see the cap ramifications but there has to be a chance Ryan Kerrigan is released or traded. 

Odds are very good that we have a whole new regime next year. A new GM is going to blow this thing up anyway and start purging the roster of older players with Trent Williams likely being the one to hang around with a young QB at the helm. They can’t move on from Smith contractually but they’re going to do so on the field. I suspect Haskins, Grier or Lock will be starting for this team next year.