C0LTSFAN4L1F3 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, childofpudding said: Cam Newton didn't grade that superbly in 2015 in most of the stats you cited in this thread either. While he was 1st in TD%, he was 27th in completion percentage, 13th in INT%, 7th in Y/A, and 8th in passer rating. Now, look at who the Panthers played that season: twice against NO (32nd in points allowed per drive), TB twice (31st), ATL twice (18th), DAL (17th), GB (10th), HOU (6th), IND (21st), JAX (26th), NYG (29th), PHI (23rd), SEA (4th), TEN (27th), WAS (17th). Overall, an easy slate of defenses with a median and average ranking in points allowed per drive of 21st. Given those numbers, 12th in DVOA sounds about right. You know, I wasn't aware of how poor the defenses that he played were, that's a good point. Definitely something that needs to be taken into consideration. But even so, he had a very good case for MVP that year. He had 45 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, and lead the highest scoring offense in the league and the most efficient offense in the league. He had a league leading TD% of 7.1% throwing the ball, but that same touchdown rate was also reflected in his runs and the additional 10 touchdowns. And that simply isn't reflected in his passer rating or other things like that. As a quarterback, your job is to lead your offense and put points on the board. And it isn't as though he did it with this amazing run game helping him, either. Non-Cam Newton runs on that team had 394 carries for 1646 yards at 4.18 yards/carry and 9 touchdowns. That's really not that impressive at all. Cam had more rushing touchdowns than all of his RB's combined. I find it strange that this system apparently seems to take into account every single play, but Cam's superb running doesn't appear to really be reflected in the metric very well. He had 10 rushing touchdowns and averaged 4.8 yards per carry. His completion percentage is very bad, sure, but it those short passes that would give you that CMP% bump that gives you a couple yards here and there, is simply replaced by Cam's runs. Sure, he played a weak slate on defense, but he still was extremely effective to the point where I'm not sure there was a better QB in the league in 2015. Frankly, I have trouble taking a stat seriously that is supposedly supposed to be a metric of somebody's entire season in it's totality and all facets of their game, putting the MVP at 12th. And you look at the way it is computed and it is convoluted and I don't really agree with the preference based parameters that they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said: You know, I wasn't aware of how poor the defenses that he played were, that's a good point. Definitely something that needs to be taken into consideration. But even so, he had a very good case for MVP that year. He had 45 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, and lead the highest scoring offense in the league and the most efficient offense in the league. He had a league leading TD% of 7.1% throwing the ball, but that same touchdown rate was also reflected in his runs and the additional 10 touchdowns. And that simply isn't reflected in his passer rating or other things like that. As a quarterback, your job is to lead your offense and put points on the board. And it isn't as though he did it with this amazing run game helping him, either. Non-Cam Newton runs on that team had 394 carries for 1646 yards at 4.18 yards/carry and 9 touchdowns. That's really not that impressive at all. Cam had more rushing touchdowns than all of his RB's combined. I find it strange that this system apparently seems to take into account every single play, but Cam's superb running doesn't appear to really be reflected in the metric very well. He had 10 rushing touchdowns and averaged 4.8 yards per carry. His completion percentage is very bad, sure, but it those short passes that would give you that CMP% bump that gives you a couple yards here and there, is simply replaced by Cam's runs. Sure, he played a weak slate on defense, but he still was extremely effective to the point where I'm not sure there was a better QB in the league in 2015. Frankly, I have trouble taking a stat seriously that is supposedly supposed to be a metric of somebody's entire season in it's totality and all facets of their game, putting the MVP at 12th. And you look at the way it is computed and it is convoluted and I don't really agree with the preference based parameters that they have. Yeah, you won't get an argument from me about whether Cam deserved MVP that year. He did. I think a large part of why he was the consensus MVP was 1) they started 14-0; and 2) Cam was so instrumental in the rushing game, as you mentioned. None of the stats either of us cited take that effect of a running QB into account. DVOA is strictly a passing stat, as is passer rating and all the components therein. ESPN's QBR does account for runs, and Newton was ranked 11th there, so a bit better. The issue I've always had with QBR is they don't even disclose how they calculate it. I think we can both agree that an encompassing QB stat that accounts for passing and running for QBs would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C0LTSFAN4L1F3 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, childofpudding said: Yeah, you won't get an argument from me about whether Cam deserved MVP that year. He did. I think a large part of why he was the consensus MVP was 1) they started 14-0; and 2) Cam was so instrumental in the rushing game, as you mentioned. None of the stats either of us cited take that effect of a running QB into account. DVOA is strictly a passing stat, as is passer rating and all the components therein. ESPN's QBR does account for runs, and Newton was ranked 11th there, so a bit better. The issue I've always had with QBR is they don't even disclose how they calculate it. I think we can both agree that an encompassing QB stat that accounts for passing and running for QBs would be ideal. I thought the entire selling point of DVOA is that it takes every single play into account and defines each one as a "success" depending on certain parameters and what not? I was under teh impression that DVOA intends on reflecting the entire performance of a QB not just the plays where the ball leaves their hand. Maybe I misinterpreted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlowe22 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 hours ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said: I thought the entire selling point of DVOA is that it takes every single play into account and defines each one as a "success" depending on certain parameters and what not? I was under teh impression that DVOA intends on reflecting the entire performance of a QB not just the plays where the ball leaves their hand. Maybe I misinterpreted it. I think that’s PFF grades that pretend to take every single play into account and give a grade, positive or negative, for each one. I could be mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C0LTSFAN4L1F3 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 See this is why I like ColdHardFootball Fact's "Real QBR" because it assess efficiency while taking into account all of the plays that the QB is involved in. (Not to be confused with ESPN's "Total QBR") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CKS97 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Brady isn't the Brady of old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shake Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Bill n Brady are gonna make a playoff run because it's what they do. I dislike them as much as the next guy but winning the big games is in their blood. They will find a way until retirement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveTheVikings Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 20 hours ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said: See this is why I like ColdHardFootball Fact's "Real QBR" because it assess efficiency while taking into account all of the plays that the QB is involved in. (Not to be confused with ESPN's "Total QBR") All of the data is being a paywall though, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C0LTSFAN4L1F3 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, ILoveTheVikings said: All of the data is being a paywall though, isn't it? For the current season. You can see previous seasons for free. And they gave me a full-subscription for free too. So I have access to all of it and I paid exactly $0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 So far no TDs and 2 picks in this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChazStandard Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, Danger said: So far no TDs and 2 picks in this game. t. Boxscore watcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iknowcool Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Any chance he plays himself out of the Hall of Fame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C0LTSFAN4L1F3 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 12 minutes ago, iknowcool said: Any chance he plays himself out of the Hall of Fame? Lol, no. He could throw an INT/incompletion every throw for the rest of the season and he would still be a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duluther Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 28 minutes ago, iknowcool said: Any chance he plays himself out of the Hall of Fame? At this point, I think he has to play himself back into the HoF. Really ugly out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMossIsBoss Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 hour ago, iknowcool said: Any chance he plays himself out of the Hall of Fame? I think he already has tbh. He’ll need at least another ring to get back into convo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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