AlNFL19 Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 16 hours ago, Classic said: The analytics and stats say Nick Foles is better in the Eagles offense then Wentz ever was and it isn't even close. I don't really think this is true. From the rate stats my model uses, Foles wasn't as good this year, and even the ones it doesn't use. Even Football Outsiders agrees. Take a look: Statistic Carson Wentz Nick Foles DVOA +8.2% -5.4% DYAR 549 74 DYAR per Att. 1.37 0.38 WAR +1.53 +0.16 TD% 5.2 3.6 INT% 1.7 2.1 ANY/A 6.9 6.5 Passer Rating 102.2 96 Completion% 69.6 72.3 Sack% 7.2 4.4 Foles has the lead in completion rate and sack rate, but literally none of the other rate stats there, including ANY/A, which incorporates sacks and sack yardage. Also, Foles' WAR isn't going to be as high as Wentz' because both were fairly good but Foles had less than half the attempts and also, as seen above, wasn't really as good according to a lot of stats that I think are important. Although I'm not trying to argue that the Eagles shouldn't trade Wentz, as I don't really have an opinion on the matter, but I think that the analytics don't really reflect your idea this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 7 hours ago, KellChippy said: He is not better unless he’s got great o line play, and has only done it in small sample sizes. Foles at his worst is not pretty. Carson turned 26 a few days ago. Injury concerns are there, but Foles is often injured as well when he gets extended playing time. If Foles returns to norm, we would have to use all those picks to get another Qb anyway. Here is a breakdown of their passer ratings as Eagles. You can assume 90+ is a good game, 70-90 range is mediocre, and below 70 is bad. Foles in 37 games (31 real regular season starts, 2 long relief games vs Dallas 2012(32 passes) and NY 2013(25 passes) and 4 playoff games) 22 good- 9 mediocre -6 bad 8 - 120+ rating games 12 - 110+ rating games 15 - 100+ rating games 22 - 90+ rating games 9 - between 70 and 90 rating games 6 - below 70 rating games 5 - below 60 rating games 3 - below 50 rating games Wentz in 40 games 24 good -10 mediocre - 6 bad 5 - 120+ rating games 10 - 110+ rating games 16 - 100+ rating games in 40 games 24 - 90+ rating games 10 - between 70 and 90 rating games 6 - below 70 rating games 4 - below 60 rating games 1 - below 50 rating game They are almost identical, with Foles having 3 more 120+ games and 2 more below 50 games. Note: I exclude the 2017 Foles exhibition game against Dallas (Eagles rested players and did not game plan) but include Wentz's 2016 exhibition game against Dallas (Dallas rested players and did not game plan) Feel free to decide if you want to count Wentz's 93.6 from that game or use a 39 game sample. Fun fact: Terrell Watson iced that game late with a TD run and Watson and Byron Marshall combined for 19 carries. (Sproles had 9 as well) BAD FOLES is a myth continued by ignorant people. 11 starts on an awful team in the middle of moving town while facing 8 playoff teams in those 11 starts with Kenny Britt and Tavon Austin as your wideouts is as meaningful as Steve Young in Tampa Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4-1 with more points per game (25 vs 22) and about 22 more yards per game vs 5-6 League average was 23.3 points per game. Oddly enough, Wentz lost 5 one-score games by not scoring above the 17, 20., 21, 23, and 23 points those weeks (3 of them at home) Foles opponents were 43-37 with 2 of 5 being playoff teams Wentz opponents were 89-84-1 with 4 of 11 being playoff teams Foles played 3 road games and 2 home games Wentz played 6 home games and 5 road games. Wentz watched helplessly as big leads evaporated vs Carolina and Tennessee. Foles watched a big lead evaporate vs Houston and got destroyed by Clowney. He came back in and won the game. Foles was twice the QB Wentz was this year. Football Outsiders is welcome to be wrong about it with any stat they want. Maybe people will get it if I say that Wentz played like Kirk Cousins this year, only with less winning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 dupe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KellChippy Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 @SkippyX Never said Foles was bad, said he is bad under pressure, and his worst isn’t pretty. He can be rattled. You did, however, suggest Carson was bad this season. They both had notable shaky moments this year, but to say either was bad is misleading. Even if we’re going strictly off passer rating to gauge success, Wentz has improved his rating every year, despite destroying his knee 10 months before the season. It would be naive to act like that wasn’t a factor in his play this year. He has had one off season to prepare as a starter, and he was a front runner for mvp. His mobility opens the run game and throwing angles that simply aren’t there for Foles. Plenty of reasons to think Carson can and will get better. The downsides to getting rid of him are too severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lancerman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I’m really more interested in their batting averages rankings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KellChippy Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, SkippyX said: Foles watched a big lead evaporate vs Houston and got destroyed by Clowney. He came back in and won the game. He wouldn’t have had to do that if he didn’t throw a terrible red zone pick, sparking a Houston comeback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KellChippy Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 vs playoff teams (Regular season) Wentz- 381-601-63.4%-4050-25-14 6.7 ypa 87.2 rtg (7-9 W-L, plays playoff teams 40.0% of career games) Foles (career)- 350-591-59.2%-4062-19-19 6.9 ypa 77.4 rtg (7-10 W-L, plays playoff teams 36.2% of career games) Foles (PHI)- 206-336-61.3%-2564-13-10 7.6 ypa 85.5 rtg (5-4 W-L, plays playoff teams 26.5% of PHI career games) Career SOS (strength of opponents faced) Wentz- 330-305-5 (51.6%) Foles (career)- 364-386-2 (48.4%) Foles (PHI)- 251-291-2 (46.1%) Total down conversion % Wentz- 1st down- 28.9%, 2nd down- 31.7%, 3rd down- 41.3%, total- 33.7% Foles (career)- 1st down- 27.4%, 2nd down- 29.3%, 3rd down- 32.4%, total- 29.9% Foles (PHI)- 1st down- 27.2%, 2nd down- 31.8%, 3rd down- 36.6%, total- 31.7% Red Zone & Goal Line Wentz- RZ-118-209-56.5%-798-55-2 100.6 rtg GL-45-74-60.8%-170-33-2 93.6 rtg Foles (career)- RZ- 105-205-51.2%-711-39-5 88.6 rtg GL-34-79-43.0%-152-21-3 74.2 rtg Foles (PHI)- RZ- 86-158-54.4%-569-34-3 94.1 rtg GL-30-63-47.6%-141-20-1 87.2 rtg vs Top 15 pass D (rtg) Wentz- 442-713-62.0%-5203-36-18 7.3ypa 90.5 rtg (47.5% of gms (19) are against top 15 pass d (rtg)) Foles (career)- 283-490-57.8%-3297-19-16 6.7ypa 77.6 rtg (29.8% of gms (14) are against top 15 pass d (rtg)) Foles (PHI)- 175-295-59.3%-2146-14-8 7.3ypa 86.4 rtg (23.5% of gms (8) are against top 15 pass d (rtg)) vs Top 15 Pass D (yds) Wentz- 462-740-62.4%-5217-44-16 7.1ypa 94.3 rtg (50.0% of gms (20) are against top 15 pass d (yds)) Foles (career)- 287-490-58.6%-3252-17-13 6.6ypa 79.1 rtg (34.0% of gms (16) are against top 15 pass d (yds)) Foles (PHI)- 172-272-63.2%-1942-11-7 7.1ypa 87.3 rtg (26.5% of gms (9) are against top 15 pass d (yds)) vs Top 15 D (pts) Wentz- 594-952-62.4%-6417-43-21 6.7ypa 88.0 rtg (62.5% of gms (25) are against top 15 d (pts)) Foles (career)- 283-490-59.2%-3405-19-19 6.5ypa 75.6 rtg (34.0% of gms (16) are against top 15 d (pts)) Foles (PHI)- 182-299-60.9%-2057-14-10 6.9ypa 83.2 rtg (23.5% of gms (8) are against top 15 d (pts)) vs Top 15 D (yds) Wentz- 545-861-63.3%-5941-44-16 6.9ypa 92.9 rtg (60.0% of gms (24) are against top 15 d (yds)) Foles (career)- 260-468-55.6%-2836-13-14 6.1ypa 70.4 rtg (31.4% of gms (15) are against top 15 d (yds)) Foles (PHI)- 115-204-56.4%-1298-7-5 6.4ypa 76.8 rtg (20.6% of gms (7) are against top 15 d (yds)) Prime Time Wentz- 272-413-65.9%-3034-23-7 7.3ypa 99.1 rtg (8-4 WL) Foles (career & PHI)- 196-313-62.6%-2172-10-7 6.9ypa 84.5 rtg (7-3 WL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FalconFan13 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 You know overall in the order they are on the list for the most part i like that list and think they are pretty close to how i would rank the majority of the QB's this year thats not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shoeless Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/2/2019 at 12:37 AM, KellChippy said: Do you go with the guy who was 11-2 in his second year or the journeyman who ran the offense in his stead? Wentz has one bad game this year. Foles has looked average both times he began the season as a starter and his time outside Philly. He’s had a boneheaded interception in each of the last two games. If you’re going to discredit the offense at the beginning of the year, you have to recognize how much better the o line has been as the season went on. The run game ceased to exist for a few games mid season after Ajayi went down. Foles has looked bad in the past under pressure. Wentz has had very good numbers under pressure since he entered league. Wentz can make a lot of plays Nick physically cannot. The hope is Wentz makes quicker decisions as he gains experience, and plays like the Linval Joseph fumble don’t happen. I dread the off season when Foles may leave. Carson’s injury history is always in the back of my mind, but it’s not just Eagles fans that think Wentz should be the guy going forward. If anything, there’s a cult of Foles going on right now. Man, I don't know. Wentz has the better tools - the size, the quick mind, the physical ability. He also has age on his side. That said, Foles has the intangibles and the team just seems to play better for him - maybe it's confidence or chemistry, not really sure, but they just do. And, let's be honest, the injures are a legit concern. This is 3 out of 3 years here, not one fluke injury. Foles also has this explainable knack to perform in the clutch for "this team." It doesn't matter why or when, but when the chips are down, Nick comes through and the team rallies around him. I honestly think Wentz has two big things going against him... 1. The injuries 2. Knowing in the back of his mind that Foles was the QB that finally won a SB for the Birds Seriously, all Wentz could hope to do is match Foles and win a SB. Unless, by some crazy chance, the Eagles win 2 or more under Carson. That is a lot of pressure, knowing no matter what you do, it's SB or bust for you. Just imagine the fans if Foles leaves and Carson continues to get hurt and the Eagles fail because of it. It will not be pretty. Right now, Eagles fans still love Wentz - and rightfully so - but if Foles isn't there to clean up and Carson keeps breaking down, patience will run thin and we all know how that usually ends up in our town. While I agree that Wentz may have only had one "bad" game this year - how many "good" games did he really have? I saw a ton of inconsistency, turnovers and inaccurate passing out of him. He looked nothing like he did last season before the injury, sans a few stretches. I really like Wentz but I'm being honest. This QB situation in Philly is among the weirdest I've seen in a long time. Farve/Rodgers and Brees/Rivers weren't even like this IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KellChippy Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 5 hours ago, Shoeless said: Just imagine the fans if Foles leaves and Carson continues to get hurt and the Eagles fail because of it. It will not be pretty. But imagine Wentz is the guy everyone thought he was during last season, and we let him go and he wins elsewhere. We keep Foles, the veterans around him leave/retire in a couple years, and he reverts to his career average. That’s much worse in my opinion. Ill admit, it’s a unique situation. Used to just be the crazies that called into sports radio and propped up Foles, now there are more rational people considering the possible haul for Wentz due to his injury history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raves Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 19 hours ago, Chiefer said: Keyword "was". Mahomes isnt a dumpoff machine like Brees so i doubt hes ever hitting the same completion% in his career. Hes a guy whos always looking to push the ball deep. Maybe near the tailend of it he will ala Brees. Mahomes has some of the best numbers in the league when he has a clean pocket so that is probably correct. He hardly has a clean pocket nowadays with guys off the street starting at guard. You realize that Mahomes threw 22.8% of his passes at or behind the LOS and 41.9% of his passes between 1-10 yards for a total of 64.7% of his passes thrown either behind the LOS or within 10 yards. Brees only threw 16.8% of his passes at or behind the LOS though 54.8% of his passes were between 1-10 yards for a total of 71.6% of his passes thrown within that same range. So Mahomes throws quite a bit underneath or "checkdowns" as you want to call them and this is with the Chiefs actually having the vertical passing threats in both Kelce and Hill among others. Additionally you have: 21-30 Yards-Brees 6.7% Mahomes 8.5% 31-40 Yards-Brees 1.2% Mahomes 3.6% 41+ Yards - Brees .4% Mahomes 2.7% So really it's a difference in the offensive options for the Chiefs for why they have more downfield passing, though granted Brees' arm isn't what it used to be either, he can still make those throws if his WRs were capable of running those routes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sp6488 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, Raves said: You realize that Mahomes threw 22.8% of his passes at or behind the LOS and 41.9% of his passes between 1-10 yards for a total of 64.7% of his passes thrown either behind the LOS or within 10 yards. Brees only threw 16.8% of his passes at or behind the LOS though 54.8% of his passes were between 1-10 yards for a total of 71.6% of his passes thrown within that same range. So Mahomes throws quite a bit underneath or "checkdowns" as you want to call them and this is with the Chiefs actually having the vertical passing threats in both Kelce and Hill among others. Additionally you have: 21-30 Yards-Brees 6.7% Mahomes 8.5% 31-40 Yards-Brees 1.2% Mahomes 3.6% 41+ Yards - Brees .4% Mahomes 2.7% So really it's a difference in the offensive options for the Chiefs for why they have more downfield passing, though granted Brees' arm isn't what it used to be either, he can still make those throws if his WRs were capable of running those routes. Would be interested to see this breakdown for league as a whole. Would be good to know where they sit relative to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shoeless Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 7 hours ago, KellChippy said: But imagine Wentz is the guy everyone thought he was during last season, and we let him go and he wins elsewhere. We keep Foles, the veterans around him leave/retire in a couple years, and he reverts to his career average. That’s much worse in my opinion. Ill admit, it’s a unique situation. Used to just be the crazies that called into sports radio and propped up Foles, now there are more rational people considering the possible haul for Wentz due to his injury history. Oh, it is unique for sure. And I wouldn't want to be Howie right now - I probably wouldn't sleep an hour. That's why he gets paid big bucks to make hard decisions. Again, everything you suggest makes a ton of sense. I was 100% in the Wentz camp until he was hurt yet again, and I saw how the team responded to Nick. I'm not out of the Wentz camp, just actually willing to "listen" to how insane a team might be to overpay for Carson. Hypothetical: A team offers you (4) 1sts for Wentz this summer, do you take it? Or is he 100% untouchable no matter what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, Shoeless said: Hypothetical: A team offers you (4) 1sts for Wentz this summer, do you take it? Or is he 100% untouchable no matter what? I think you can only trade draft picks 2 years into the future, not sure anybody would have (4) to offer. I think 2 firsts is about all anybody would/could pay considering Wentz's deal is up in 2019 and nobody wants him to hit FA. So the trading team would have to have some contract talks and agreements before the trade could be consummated. I think ya gotta roll with Wentz and he'll be 2 years out from his knee surgery in September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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