AlNFL19 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 I am well aware that Wins Above Replacement is a statistic that probably has no true equal in football as it has in baseball because of how much goes into each play, each drive, and each game from 22 players and their coaches. However, I decided to try anyway and determine the Wins Above Replacement, according to my model, of the performance of each team's quarterback, or, in this case, the one who attempted the most passes this season. Now, this isn't a WAR stat that tries to isolate the performance of the quarterback. That could never really work because numbers can't determine who's responsible for how much of whatever play with 22 guys on the field. This WAR stat is the wins added by the passes thrown by the quarterback. It doesn't isolate them from their receivers or linemen or whatever, it's just trying to determine the wins added or lost by plays when each quarterback threw the ball (so really it's the wins added by the entire offense during those plays). I think it worked out alright. With that in mind, here's the leaderboard from this past season: Quarterback WAR 1. Patrick Mahomes +4.79 2. Drew Brees +3.72 3. Matt Ryan +3.29 4. Russell Wilson +2.96 5. Aaron Rodgers +2.32 6. Phillip Rivers +2.28 7. Jared Goff +1.95 8. Andrew Luck +1.87 9. Kirk Cousins +1.55 10. Tom Brady +1.54 11. Carson Wentz +1.53 12. Deshaun Watson +1.41 13. Ben Roethlisberger +1.18 14. Dak Prescott +0.78 15. Baker Mayfield +0.74 16. Mitchell Trubisky +0.65 17. Andy Dalton +0.33 18. Cam Newton +0.32 19. Eli Manning +0.07 20. Derek Carr +0.06 21. Ryan Tannehill +0.01 22. Matt Stafford -0.11 23. Joe Flacco -0.15 24. Alex Smith -0.21 25. Nick Mullens -0.27 26. Jameis Winston -0.38 27. Marcus Mariota -0.49 28. Blake Bortles -1.31 29. Case Keenum -1.45 30. Sam Darnold -1.60 31. Josh Allen -2.28 32. Josh Rosen -3.37 For reference: '11 Aaron Rodgers: +6.75 '07 Tom Brady: +6.50 '13 Peyton Manning: +5.69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sp6488 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 A lot of questions, but how have you defined replacement level? At first glance it seems you have too many guys in the negative (assuming your “WAR” has the same overall goal as that in baseball). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, sp6488 said: A lot of questions, but how have you defined replacement level? At first glance it seems you have too many guys in the negative (assuming your “WAR” has the same overall goal as that in baseball). Replacement level in this case is just the average from a sample of the last ten years, so not really "replacement" but whatever. It was a pretty good season for QBs seeing as 21 were above average (0.0 WAR). Yeah, though, I guess it's not totally wins above replacement, seeing as replacement would probably be a bottom-10 quarterback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDez Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 List is trash without Mookie Betts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Keenum you a goat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Any way to find out what Baker’s WAR was after ridding himself of a Hue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKChief Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Where’s Nick Foles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, UKChief said: Where’s Nick Foles? In canton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xmad Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Bearerofnews said: In canton. This is false. He IS Canton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sp6488 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 hour ago, AlNFL19 said: Replacement level in this case is just the average from a sample of the last ten years, so not really "replacement" but whatever. It was a pretty good season for QBs seeing as 21 were above average (0.0 WAR). Yeah, though, I guess it's not totally wins above replacement, seeing as replacement would probably be a bottom-10 quarterback. So then it should be WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 36 minutes ago, UKChief said: Where’s Nick Foles? I only included the quarterback on each team with the most attempts. Foles was at +0.16 for the year, pretty good for a limited sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonu62882 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, AlNFL19 said: I only included the quarterback on each team with the most attempts. Foles was at +0.16 for the year, pretty good for a limited sample size. The only important number for Foles is 9 for well...the size of his...ya know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 A replacement QB, Foles, was far superior to Wentz this year. Foles was 4-1 Wentz was 5-6. He could barely get to 20 points almost every week. Any concept of 2018 Wentz having a positive WAR is stupid. Are we supposed to buy that Carr goes 4-7 or 3-8 in those 11 games with the defending champs? Also, replacing a +2 WAR Brady with an almost even WAR Carr or Tannehill should result in a 9-7 Patriots season. That is absolute crap. It would be a miracle if either of those guys got that Patriots team to 8-8. The same would be true with Luck on Indy being replaced with some even level slob. Watson was replaced last year to 1-9 when he was 3-3 before the injury. Carr or Tannehill would have died in September / October behind that line. WAR has no place in football. Its feeble guesswork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Foles had bad stats in the first 2 weeks because the offense was not ready yet. Ertz and Goedert were awful in week 1, dropping like 4 passes including a pick that first hit Goedert in the chest. Jeffrey did not even play in those 2 games. How does WAR cover that? Wentz had a 7.2% sack rate this year. Foles had a 4.4% rate. Sacks are bad, right? How does WAR handle them? If a replacement player holds onto the ball instead of giving it up for a Linval Joseph TD return then the Eagles beat the Vikings. If a replacement player sees Smallwood all alone for a late 1st down, the Eagles likely beat the Panthers. If a replacement QB scores a TD on that first OT drive then the Titans don't get to go for it on 4th down in OT before they score the game winner. Brady killed the Bills in Buffalo on MNF but both Edelman and Gronk volley-balled perfect passes from Brady into the hands of Bills defenders. Lets give Brady a WAR like he was 29 to 11 TD-pick ratio instead of him playing like 29 to 9 and dominating a very good D in their stadium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.