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Around The League V.2


Totty

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On 10/17/2023 at 2:51 PM, big_palooka said:

Wishful thinking. As @NickButera has stated several times. Only 5 QB taken outside round 1 have ever won a Super Bowl. Trade up, get THE guy and stop trying to hope you land something in the mid rounds, etc. 

Is it really wishful thinking though? 

There have only been 58 Superbowls. 

Of those, 5 non-first rounders have won one. 

Brady won 7. His opponents included: Undrafted QBs Kurt Warner and Jake Delhomme, 1st rounder Donovan McNabb, 3rd rounder Russell Wilson, 1st rounder Matt Ryan, 1st rounder Jared Goff, 1st rounder Patrick Mahomes. 

That leaves 51 other Superbowls. 

Brady lost to 1st rounder Eli twice. 49 left. 

Brady lost to 4th rounder Nick Foles. 48. 

So in Brady's 10 appearances, roughly 1/6 of all Superbowls, the opposing starting QB was likewise a non-first rounder in 40% of them. A non 1st rounder was guaranteed to win there no matter the outcome. 

Anyway, 47 Superbowls left to go. 

Superbowl 48 was won by Wilson. 46 left. 

Superbowl 44 was won by 2nd rounder Drew Brees. Down to 45. 

Superbowl 37 saw 9th rounder Brad Johnson beat 4th rounder Rich Gannon. Down to 44. 

Superbowl 34 saw Undrafted Kurt Warner win. Down to 43. 

There's no point going all the way back to Superbowl 1 anymore. Since the year 2000, we have seen 24 Superbowl games played, and half were won by a non-1st eound QB. Even adjusting for Brady, nearly half of the QBs he played against were non 1st rounders. You'd be ever so slightly under a 50/50 toss up at absolute best at that rate. 

Then you have some other nuggets:

Last year, 2nd rounder Hurts was a mere 3 points away from winning one- and nobody would've been shocked had the Eagles won. 

In Superbowl 47, 3rd rounder Colin Kaepernick was 3 points and some questionable antics away from a win. 

In Superbowl 43, Warner was literally mere inches from a 2nd ring. 

Sueprbowl 40 was a travesty and crime committed by Bill Leavy's crew that stole a ring from 6th rounder Matt Hasselbeck. 

In 4 more games, a non-1st rounder very easily could have hoisted the Lombardi, making a theoretical 16/24 rings since 2000 going to non-1st rounders. 

Oh, and one game was won by Trent Dilfer and shouldn't even count as a QB win. 

There's simply no proof that non-1st round QBs have a harder time than 1st round QBs at winning a Superbowl. Considering that Peyton, Eli, and Patrick account for 6 of the 12 1st round winners (with Brady Jimmy G, and Jalen making up 3 of the opponents)...it's actually the opposite, and had Jimmy and Brady not lost 3 of those 4 games, and the wonky ones above been won by Hurts, Kaepernick, Warner, amd Hasselbeck, then non-1st round QBs would have been absolutely dominating the field over the last 24 Superbowls.

Really it doesn't even matter by how much because the fact remains that at bare minimum it's a 50/50 based on what in fact occurred. We can add or subtract any variable hypothetical all day, it would only benefit non-1st round QBs if equally applied. 

The idea a 1st round QB is needed for a ring is baseless. It's nonsense. It's a narrative that gets pushed when someone just wants a 1st round QB because that's the flavor of the week. Statistically, since the millennium clock rolled over, it's more likely to be in a spot to win a Superbowl without a 1st round QB at the helm- 12 wins and several more opportunities. 

I'm not even opposed to grabbing a 1st rounder because why not. Plus, I like McCarthy and Penix and doubt they fall to the 2nd. But this notion of needing a 1st round QB....nah, that talks gotta stop. 

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Yeah, he’s lookin pretty bad. Which sucks cuz I enjoy rooting for Nola, carr isn’t our QB anymore so he really doesn’t matter to me. I’d thank him for his service but he’s gone now. Moving rt along, unfortunately I wasn’t happy with jimmy glass either.  Nola overall doesn’t look that good unfortunately. And it starts with # 4. Just the reality. 

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