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TheKillerNacho

Sooners' Kyler Murray officially declares for NFL draft

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I did watch a lot of Oklahoma...offense fed on PA and having superior athletes. Lots of open guys downfield. 

WRs Hollywood Brown, Lamb will be drafted high barring injury even Morris has size/speed combo teams look for.

How accurate is he? Can he handle the hits of 16 games? If he's not with an former college offensive whiz can he adjust?  

I'm rooting for him either way. 

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12 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Unless you're talking about elite player, the money is pretty heavily in favor of NFL.  Last year, Josh Rosen as the 10th overall pick got $17.6M guaranteed.  Lamar Jackson as the 32nd overall pick got $9.5M guaranteed.  Figure an average, and you're looking at ~$13.5M in guarantees which blows the $4.7M guarantee he got from the A's.  Figure roughly 4 years in the minors which matches the rookie contract of Kyler Murray.  Add on 3 years of minimum salary (~$2M) and then 3 years of arbitration, and if Kyler Murray gets that 2nd contract he's getting exponentially more money in those years.  The only time it might lead to more money is if he's getting elite money.

4 years in the minors though is way too long for a college top half Rd1 position player.   4 years is what HS or international 16+ year olds get, or pitchers from either rank (they take longer).  College bats now are normally up within 2 years - some of them are up with only 1 season in the minors.   Now, he still has to do that time, but the expected time interval is wrong for his case - look at Alex Bregman / Ian Happ / Michael Conforto / Trea Turner.   College bats are taken for the fact they're readier to help at a MLB level far sooner than HS players.

Remember that Murray isn't looking at this like he's not going to be elite either way.  We look at it from the average-player / average-QB perspective.   He's not going to be a 40-HR guy, but he's thinking "I'll be a .280+, 15 HR / 40-50 SB dynamo (more like .260 but this is his perspective)" - and he'll play for 10-12+ seasons if he sticks.   Now, of course, he thinks "hey I can play 10+ years as a QB too".    Honestly, the argument for $ either way can be made - if he flames out, there's more $ to be had in football with a late Rd1 pick - but keep in mind, if he's a Day 2 pick, the $ is still less too.    Obviously, if he's a top 15 pick, there's more $ up front for football.

Like I said before 1 month ago, there are reasons why Murray will choose football over baseball.   But the $ argument shouldn't sway him, not if he is of the mindset he's going to make it to the MLB if he sticks (and the history for top-10 draft picks, and college ones at that, is uniformly the case, it's just a matter of how long - college picks taking a lot less time than HS/16-year international signings).   You can make the argument either way, given the different outcomes - but using the college Rd1 bat career trajectory, spending 4 years in the minors isn't accurate.    

I can see why Murray will choose football over baseball.  He thinks he will succeed either way.   So it's a matter of what he prefers.  The bigger Q IMO is what teams are willing to pick him capital-wise.  It's such a bad top-end class, I get the Rd1 talk, but man, I don't see it. 

Edited by Broncofan

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Personally, I think there's a good chance Murray won't be outstanding as a pro in either sport. Assuming he's a top 10 NFL pick, that means around $20mil guaranteed vs $4.5mil guaranteed in baseball.

Even if I'm wrong and he is on a star trajectory, an injury can derail any athletic career and an untimely regime change can screw up your development. Athletic careers are fickle and often short, so guaranteed money is the only real money. If he has high confidence he'll go top 10 in the NFL draft, it's the right monetary move.

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18 minutes ago, bucsfan333 said:

 

In all likelihood, the A's will not be able to offer him any more money. Every MLB team has a bonus pool of draft money, and signing a guy who hasn't played a game yet to a new deal would basically let players say "I want $500k now, $2M after I sign". (Which I'd be all for.) The MLB would have to approve any new deal, and I'd be shocked if they did.

 

This also came up in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, since it was speculated that teams would offer him their entire bonus pool, then a $100MM+ extension in April, so the MLB would have to figure out after how long it they would consider approving an Ohtani extension.

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31 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

In all likelihood, the A's will not be able to offer him any more money. Every MLB team has a bonus pool of draft money, and signing a guy who hasn't played a game yet to a new deal would basically let players say "I want $500k now, $2M after I sign". (Which I'd be all for.) The MLB would have to approve any new deal, and I'd be shocked if they did.

 

This also came up in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, since it was speculated that teams would offer him their entire bonus pool, then a $100MM+ extension in April, so the MLB would have to figure out after how long it they would consider approving an Ohtani extension.

Quick update: I was wrong and draft pools are dead

 

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It sounds like Kyler could be using the NFL to squeeze out more up front money from Oakland. Can't blame him for using his leverage to that degree.

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Just now, BaltimoreTerp said:

 

It's going to be a perennial debate of who had the greater impact - Kyler Murray on the A's, or Frank Gore on the Eagles.   Wow.

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Just now, Broncofan said:

It's going to be a perennial debate of who had the greater impact - Kyler Murray on the A's, or Frank Gore on the Eagles.   Wow.

Neither hold a candle to USC legend Kliff Kingsbury 

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On 1/10/2019 at 6:30 AM, TheKillerNacho said:

Obviously there have been players who played in both the MLB and NFL before but not a Quarterback.

I wonder if this could turn out like John Elway, where he might end up in a position that he’ll use his leverage as a ball player to get away from a bad team that might draft him. 

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Gosh, Kyler has a real chance to be the next Drew Henson, and bust at both sports!

Image result for Drew Henson

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