Xenos Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Andy Benoit does a breakdown of the underdogs in both games. Here's part I for this game NE: https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/01/14/afc-championship-title-game-preview-chiefs-patriots-patrick-mahomes-bill-belichick Quote A look at Mahomes vs. Belichick, Round II Andy Benoit 5-7 minutes Tom Brady might be The Greatest of All Time (The GOAT), but Patrick Mahomes is The Greatest of Right Now (The GORN?). How New England’s defense does against the soon-to-be league MVP will decide whether Brady and Bill Belichick reach the Super Bowl for an astounding ninth time. When the Patriots and Chiefs met in that instant classic shootout on a Sunday night in Week 6, the Patriots dispatched a plan for Mahomes similar to the one they obliterated Philip Rivers with on Sunday: various blitzes out of an array of undefined presnap pressure looks. Outside the pocket, Rivers is as mobile as a man in snowshoes. The Patriots, especially early on Sunday, were inclined to bring the pressure that they threatened. This included a sprinkling of all-out blitzes (aka Cover 0). Mahomes, of course, has the slippery agility to get outside the pocket, and the arm flexibility to slice you apart when he does. Which is why, in that Week 6 game, the Patriots often showed pressure but dropped into coverage. Their other featured tactic that night was something called a “bullseye” coverage, which Belichick invented to stop Marshall Faulk and upset the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. In “bullseye,” either an edge defender or linebacker jams an interior receiver off the snap, (hopefully) wrecking the timing of his route. The Patriots did this at times to Tyreek Hill when he was aligned in his most dangerous position: the “inside slot” in trips. But the main focus of their bullseyes was tight end Travis Kelce, who often aligns somewhere inside. Both tactics—showing pressure before dropping into coverage, and bulls-eyeing Kelce—yielded some positive results, with Mahomes throwing a few interceptable balls and the Chiefs failing on some early third downs. Ultimately, though, the plan did not win out, in part because the false pressure looks and bullseyes have the same downside: They give Mahomes time to work late into the down. That’s when Mahomes’s otherworldly playmaking prowess takes over. That playmaking is amplified by Kansas City’s cadre of speedy weapons, which was augmented on Saturday by Sammy Watkins’s return. New England’s man-to-man defenders, however, are better now than back in Week 6. Stephon Gilmore has been this season’s top cover corner. Undrafted rookie J.C. Jackson, strong and lanky on the perimeter, is becoming a premier downfield defender. Both men can provide constricting press coverage outside. The question is how to defend inside. No. 3 corner Jason McCourty is shrewd at using his safety help, but he doesn’t have the greatest wheels. His twin brother, Devin, is a fine man defender (he got the better of dangerous Chargers scatback Austin Ekeler on Sunday), but it’s hard to envision him consistently staying step for step with Kelce. Bullseyeing Kelce again might seem viable, except it would detract from the plan Belichick should deploy this time versus Mahomes, which is to again show pressure but this time actually bring it. Belichick would be leaning heavily on his press corners here. If you do blitz Mahomes, it must be up the middle, with edge rushers staying in their outside lanes to keep him in the pocket. Yes, on Saturday NBC’s Cris Collinsworth smartly pointed out that Mahomes is actually more dangerous in the pocket when he’s getting the ball out quickly, but that’s partly because those quick throws come when Kansas City’s ingenious pass designs are working. New England’s hope would be that the physical man coverage could derail those designs. Yes, man coverage is a tall order, especially when you consider the pre-snap motioning of Tyreek Hill. But recall that last year K.C.’s ingenious pass designs dried up for much of November and December once defenses started playing man-to-man. That didn’t happen this year because Mahomes gives the offense almost infinite dimension. That is why everything the Patriots do must center around attacking the QB. Going after Mahomes is risky, but think of it this way: If you sit back and just react to him, the Chiefs probably score 40. By attacking, you might give up 50… or, you might give up only 30, with those attacks coaxing the young QB into a few reckless plays. Mahomes still misses on a few throws each game and, like many great playmakers, his gunslinger’s mentality can sometimes go too far. Belichick can assume his QB—who may not be The GORN but is still The GOAT and still playing at the highest of levels—will not make those mistakes, even in the unfriendly din at Arrowhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 And here's Part II about New England offense: https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/01/17/chiefs-patriots-nfl-playoffs-afc-conference-championship-game Quote How the Patriots can upset the Chiefs in AFC title game Andy Benoit 5-6 minutes On Monday we examined Bill Belichick’s likely plan for containing Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Expect the Patriots to show pressure and bring relatively safe blitzes inside, asking their mediocre edge rushers to just keep Mahomes in the pocket. The hope is the blitzers can collapse that pocket just enough to make Mahomes throw into the short coverage areas that the New England defense often crowds by dropping a would-be pass rusher. Even if this plan works, the Patriots still must score at least 30 points to have a chance. Last week Kansas City’s much-maligned defense, through steadily changing coverages, held the high-powered Colts to 21 yards on 12 plays over the game’s first 28 minutes. That built a 24–7 lead that the Chiefs’ pass rush protected in the second half. It took this sort of Herculean defensive performance at home for people to notice that Kansas City amazingly allowed HALF as many points at home as on the road this year. And also, as our Albert Breer pointed out, that this Chiefs D behind Dee Ford, Chris Jones and Justin Houston, quietly tied with the Steelers for the NFL lead with 52 sacks (31 of which came at home). Even if the Chiefs are better at home, the Patriots, who hung 43 points on them in Week 6 at Gillette Stadium, can reason that their offensive approach should generate enough production. That usual approach has two parts, both of which match up well to K.C. Part 1: The three-receiver passing game. With tight end Rob Gronkowski and especially running back James White, New England’s three-wideout package has five viable receiving weapons. The Chiefs are regarded as a man coverage defense, but their foundation is actually matchup zone, which means man coverage on the outside and in the seams, but zone coverage down the middle. Last week the Patriots torched the Chargers’ underneath zone defenders by sending vertical routes inside and a wide receiver (often Julian Edelman) on a shallow crossing route underneath. Expect to see that on Sunday. And depending on how the Chiefs’ matchup coverages play out, Brady will also work Gronkowski and White on corner routes and flat routes outside. Kansas City didn’t have great answers for any of these men, especially if Eric Berry is not on the field. (A heel injury has sidelined Berry for all but 99 snaps this season but he did practice this week.) And remember, Brady executes these dropbacks quickly, which negates the threat posed by Ford, Jones and Houston. Part 2: New England’s power running game. Fullback James Develin plays about 1/3 of the snaps and has become football’s best lead-blocker. The Patriots also have two fantastic blocking tight ends in Gronkowski (a smasher) and Dwayne Allen (a move-blocker). And last week, New England’s interior O-line of Joe Thuney, Shaq Mason and David Andrews was dominant, particularly on straight zone runs blocking for Sony Michel (a terrific first-and second-down runner). This week, expect to see those interior linemen on pull blocks more than zone blockers. Pull-blocking furthers the burden on Chiefs linebackers Reggie Ragland and Anthony Hitchens to read and react, which both men do inconsistently. The beauty of New England’s power running game is with Brady’s control at the line of scrimmage, it can flex into a spread passing game, with Develin and Michel aligning outside and Edelman, Gronk and Chris Hogan working inside. From here the Patriots can get into the same quick-strike passes that define their potent 3-receiving aerial assault. Chance of New England upsetting Kansas City: 48%. Now that weather forecasts are calling for less extreme cold than originally thought, the Arrowhead homefield advantage comes back into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Sidenote: even though I don't like the Chiefs as a division rival, I would still rather have them win than the Patriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troy Brown Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 hours ago, MWil23 said: They aren’t a Cinderra Story or a David vs Goliath. That’s my whole point. that doesn't mean they haven't been counted out and aren't the underdogs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Art_Vandalay Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Lmao! Vegas makes you 3 point dogs you interpret that as "people think we suck and we're being counted out." I knew you guys were spoiled brats but daaammnn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tex Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Art_Vandalay said: Lmao! Vegas makes you 3 point dogs you interpret that as "people think we suck and we're being counted out." I knew you guys were spoiled brats but daaammnn. I don't think that's what that was about. I think that was in reference to a lot of the media picking the Chargers so he likely assumed they're gonna do the same for the Chiefs. Vegas really had nothing to do with any of this. I mean he's not wrong no matter what kind of rose colored glasses you try to look at it with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troy Brown Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 hours ago, Art_Vandalay said: Lmao! Vegas makes you 3 point dogs you interpret that as "people think we suck and we're being counted out." I knew you guys were spoiled brats but daaammnn. you not watch the nfl this season? how are ya'll really sitting here and acting like people haven't been down on the patriots all year? and by the standards they've set, it has been a down year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 5:27 PM, emaw1979 said: He doesn't put up top stats and his injuries will never allow that but when healthy, he has elite talent. Size, Speed, ability to separate, one of the best route runners in the game and one of the best set of hands in the game. It's not even arguable. Sammy Watkins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Its hard to categorize Watkins. He adds another dimension to the Offense because he can get open consistently. But those injuries preclude him from elite status Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 hours ago, Troy Brown said: that doesn't mean they haven't been counted out and aren't the underdogs lol They are technically point underdogs because of Vegas, who btw always gives 3 points to the home team. It absolutely doesn’t mean that they’ve been counted out or that “people think we suck” like Tommy said, which is an absolute joke and embarrassment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, MWil23 said: They are technically point underdogs because of Vegas, who btw always gives 3 points to the home team. It absolutely doesn’t mean that they’ve been counted out or that “people think we suck” like Tommy said, which is an absolute joke and embarrassment. The way I see it is that when you dominate a league built for parity for almost two decades, you find any inkling of motivation in every nook and cranny you can. Anyway, who really cares, it's just another overwrought media story more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 hours ago, Chiefer said: Its hard to categorize Watkins. He adds another dimension to the Offense because he can get open consistently. But those injuries preclude him from elite status If Watkins can step up, he does have the potential for a big game, or at least a few game-changing plays. The Patriots will be hyper-focused on Mahomes, Hill and Kelce, which could give Watkins plenty of opportunities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tex Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 hours ago, MWil23 said: They are technically point underdogs because of Vegas, who btw always gives 3 points to the home team. It absolutely doesn’t mean that they’ve been counted out or that “people think we suck” like Tommy said, which is an absolute joke and embarrassment. A lot of the media and the whispers around the league had the Chargers eclipsing last week. I don’t think anyone needs to pretend that just because we know the result in hindsight that that didn’t occur. The same is going on this week. Both rightfully so because both the Chargers and the Chiefs had the best records in the AFC, but a lot of why people picked or are picking against the patriots is because of how they’ve looked this season. And to be fair, I think that’s why I’ve picked against them in this game, if they were even a remotely decent road team it would be a different story. The Chiefs are also a great football team, but if the Patriots weren’t 3-5 on the road, I’m sure more people would at least entertain a victory. So.. it’s definitey warranted but that doesn’t make it untrue that people haven’t seen it this way. Plenty of examples of it, all you have to do is go on YouTube and check out all the media talkshows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CP3MVP Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12 hours ago, Art_Vandalay said: Lmao! Vegas makes you 3 point dogs you interpret that as "people think we suck and we're being counted out." I knew you guys were spoiled brats but daaammnn. What’s the definition of an underdog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asciimo Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 hours ago, MWil23 said: They are technically point underdogs because of Vegas, who btw always gives 3 points to the home team. It absolutely doesn’t mean that they’ve been counted out or that “people think we suck” like Tommy said, which is an absolute joke and embarrassment. maybe you need to chill and sit back and reflect on why sports is bringing you down? it'll be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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