2020 NFL Draft Discussion

[packfanfb]

17 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I think it's far more likely that the value never got to the point where it made sense for the Packers to get involved.  I mean, if the value DL signings are really that good, why didn't they sign for more money?  So if they're not as good as some are making them out to be, does it make sense to spend another $3M+ for similar production?  Dean Lowry has a cap hit of $5.2M, and they'd eat $6.5M by releasing him.  There's only so many snaps to go around especially if Pettine is going to stick with his 2 DL look, and you're not going to have a $5M+ cap hit on the bench.  There's ~600 snaps to get from Montravius Adams and Tyler Lancaster.  Dean Lowry gave the Packers 637 snaps last year.

I mean this is a nice thought if you're searching for excuses for Gute, but it doesn't hold water. DL is a problem right now, not only for the position itself, but all I've heard the past year is that guys like Martinez, etc suffered because our DL was weak. So you need to improve the position not only for the DL, but for ILB as well. 

Adams sucks. He's a fringe roster player if he has a very good camp. If he doesn't, you cut him. Lancaster is a try-hard who really should be your No. 6 guy at best  if you're keeping 6 DL. Right now you have Clark, Lowry and Keke (simply because he's a 2nd year player). From there, GB should be rebuilding that position whether it be through the draft or FA. No one will ever convince me that a guy like Jernigan would not have been worth the same contract that Funchess just got (which is basically the deal Houston gave him). If GB doesn't go IDL early, they absolutely better be making a FA acquisition post-draft at that position.  

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, packfanfb said:

I mean this is a nice thought if you're searching for excuses for Gute, but it doesn't hold water. DL is a problem right now, not only for the position itself, but all I've heard the past year is that guys like Martinez, etc suffered because our DL was weak. So you need to improve the position not only for the DL, but for ILB as well. 

Adams sucks. He's a fringe roster player if he has a very good camp. If he doesn't, you cut him. Lancaster is a try-hard who really should be your No. 6 guy at best  if you're keeping 6 DL. Right now you have Clark, Lowry and Keke (simply because he's a 2nd year player). From there, GB should be rebuilding that position whether it be through the draft or FA. No one will ever convince me that a guy like Jernigan would not have been worth the same contract that Funchess just got (which is basically the deal Houston gave him). If GB doesn't go IDL early, they absolutely better be making a FA acquisition post-draft at that position.  

What's more likely, that Gute is intentionally ignoring the DL OR that he doesn't feel the need at DL is as high as the casual fans do?  For a GM who has been relatively proactive about fixing issues, he chose not to sign a DL.  That's sending me a pretty clear signal.  And when you take into account what Pettine has said his vision for his defensive scheme, and it's really not overly surprising that the Packers didn't sign a DL.  Pettine has mentioned time and time again that he doesn't view the run game as a significant part of the offense.  He's building around the pass.

But let's go back to the discussion of the FA DL.  If they're all clear upgrades, why were they all settling for cheap 1 year deals?  Are they really that much of an upgrade?  Probably not.  This has absolutely NOTHING to do with Adams.  He played in 187 snaps last year on defense.  He averaged 13 snaps per game last year.  That's not much.  Lancaster isn't a DL6.  DL6 are guys who are fringe rosterable.  He's got a role.  Should he be playing 36% of the snaps?  Probably not.  We're 1 DL short right now in terms of number.  We need a DL2, so that we can push Dean Lowry to DL3 and Lancaster is DL4.  Then you've got Kingley Keke and whoever for DL6.

[packfanfb]

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-college-football-pff-2020-nfl-three-round-mock-draft-colts-jalen-hurts-eagles-jacob-eason

I'd be perfectly fine with this 3-round haul. 

[packfanfb]

3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

What's more likely, that Gute is intentionally ignoring the DL OR that he doesn't feel the need at DL is as high as the casual fans do?  For a GM who has been relatively proactive about fixing issues, he chose not to sign a DL.  That's sending me a pretty clear signal.  And when you take into account what Pettine has said his vision for his defensive scheme, and it's really not overly surprising that the Packers didn't sign a DL.  Pettine has mentioned time and time again that he doesn't view the run game as a significant part of the offense.  He's building around the pass.

But let's go back to the discussion of the FA DL.  If they're all clear upgrades, why were they all settling for cheap 1 year deals?  Are they really that much of an upgrade?  Probably not.  This has absolutely NOTHING to do with Adams.  He played in 187 snaps last year on defense.  He averaged 13 snaps per game last year.  That's not much.  Lancaster isn't a DL6.  DL6 are guys who are fringe rosterable.  He's got a role.  Should he be playing 36% of the snaps?  Probably not.  We're 1 DL short right now in terms of number.  We need a DL2, so that we can push Dean Lowry to DL3 and Lancaster is DL4.  Then you've got Kingley Keke and whoever for DL6.

I've commented on this before. This is precisely my fear--that he doesn't see the need. I'm questioning his judgment there even as a fan. This is the same guy that who said we were fine with Kentrell Brice as our starting safety and didn't address the WR group last year. He's not beyond reproach. 

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, packfanfb said:

I've commented on this before. This is precisely my fear--that he doesn't see the need. I'm questioning his judgment there even as a fan. This is the same guy that who said we were fine with Kentrell Brice as our starting safety and didn't address the WR group last year. He's not beyond reproach. 

Right now, I'd classify your argument as signing a DL for the sake of signing a DL.  At this point, we got blown out of ONE game because of our run game.  But the Packers went 13-3 with the 21st (I think) run defense.  If it was such an Achilles' heel we wouldn't have been hitting double-digit wins.  As I've said before, you're going to have issues on the roster.  Where do you want the holes?  Based on Pettine's comments and Martinez's comments post-departure, it's pretty clear that ILB isn't valued much if any inside the Packers' FO, and the DL has more value then ILB.  But not nearly as much as EDGE.

[craig]

13 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Quote

"incognito_man said:  offense outside of Jones also did better on plays he was in the field. Perhaps because he drew attention from others or we used our better plays for packages with Jones?"

That's the assumption I'm making also.   

I just question the validity of the conclusion at that point...

That was my best rationale too.  Qualitatively makes some sense.  Jones is a weapon/play-maker who demands attention; Williams relatively little.  

Don't think it happened often on 3rd downs, but I kinda hated some of the earlier-down sets with both williams and Mercedes.  With 7 blockers and Rodgers who doesn't run, that kinda only leaves three guys that the defense has to pay attention to.  

 

[packfanfb]

8 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Right now, I'd classify your argument as signing a DL for the sake of signing a DL.  At this point, we got blown out of ONE game because of our run game.  But the Packers went 13-3 with the 21st (I think) run defense.  If it was such an Achilles' heel we wouldn't have been hitting double-digit wins.  As I've said before, you're going to have issues on the roster.  Where do you want the holes?  Based on Pettine's comments and Martinez's comments post-departure, it's pretty clear that ILB isn't valued much if any inside the Packers' FO, and the DL has more value then ILB.  But not nearly as much as EDGE.

I don't want any holes and there don't need to be. On offense, address WR and OT (backup/future) through the draft. TE is fine where it's at. Same with RB, QB, IOL. On defense, add a CB in the draft (or don't and resign Tramon for basically nothing). ILB we addressed, maybe add a mid-round ILB in the draft. EDGE and S are fine. The "hole" on this team right now is DL. We have $11 million in cap space. Sign a DL and possibly add another guy in the draft and you're good to go. 

[OneTwoSixFive]

25 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

..........What's more likely, that Gute is intentionally ignoring the DL OR that he doesn't feel the need at DL is as high as the casual fans do?  For a GM who has been relatively proactive about fixing issues, he chose not to sign a DL.

Alternatively, he could recognise that on many occasions there are only two DLs on the field, and at least part of the time when there are more, it's something like Zadarius Smith as the third.

Therefore what is needed is ONE MORE decent DL guy (essentially a number 2 guy) to round things out nicely for the majority of the snaps, leaving Lowry/Keke/Lancaster as the 3/4/5. If Gute wants better quality on the D line and on the cheap, then the answer is the draft (and by the time that DL becomes expensive on a second contract, Aaron Rodgers contract is off the books).

Although I'm sure it would annoy a lot of fans, it's perfectly possible that the first two picks address the O and D line.

Edited April 8, 2020 by OneTwoSixFive

[CWood21]

3 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

Although I'm sure it would annoy a lot of fans, it's perfectly possible that the first two picks address the O and D line.

I'd venture a guess that our first three picks will be some combination of OT, DT, and WR.

[OneTwoSixFive]

That sounds like a good solid guess..................except draft day has always proved so hard to predict.

Edited April 8, 2020 by OneTwoSixFive

[CWood21]

12 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

That sounds like a good solid guess..................except draft day has always proved so hard to predict.

Gute's been a bit easier to keep track of then TT.  He loves his athletes.

[ThatJerkDave]

17 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Trevor Davis (Raiders), Reggie Gilbert (Titans), Ray Montgomery (Ravens), and Justin McCray (via Buffalo).

Did you look that up?

[Jaegybomb]

FA has completely died down. I don't mind the approach of keeping your options open for now for the most flexibility in the draft and grabbing Snacks/Tramon/whoever after the draft to fill the last remaining hole.

[ThatJerkDave]

16 hours ago, cannondale said:

There were at least 4 or 5 legit guys (at the time) that could have been taken.  I'm not sure how any of them turned out, but my best guess is no way we get close to the caliber of any of them this year at #30. That fricken Gary pick will haunt me forever

There are three that really count.  Christian Wilkins (13, Mia), Dexter Lawrence (17, NYG), Jeffrey Simmons (19, Ten).  Those are the guys that were picked between Gary and Savage.  After that, it is no longer a trade-off for Gary, it is a trade-off for Savage.

[Jaegybomb]

I liked Wilkins. Pretty funny that he put up the exact same PFF number as Lancaster last year.